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Sancho Panza

Rightmove warns supply is low and 45% of agents' stock is SSTC

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Estate Agent Today 17/7/17

'The housing market is approaching something of a standstill as the summer holiday season begins according to a downbeat report from Rightmove.

The average price of newly-marketed property in July is almost static, up by just 0.1 per cent - the equivalent of £312 - although this is a better performance than the June figure reported by Rightmove, which showed a 0.4 per cent fall.

It says the strength of buyer demand and lack of new build and existing property coming to market have resulted in over 45 per cent of agents’ property stock being sold subject to contract. 

This is the highest proportion ever recorded by Rightmove since we started tracking it seven years ago.

“Prices are in the summer doldrums. Sellers coming to market at this time of year have to price more keenly as the traditionally bubblier spring selling season is over and prospective buyers are distracted by their own summer holiday plans” says 

Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and its housing market analyst.

But he insists that a year on from the EU referendum the fundamentals remain strong. “Low unemployment, low interest rates, strong demand and historic undersupply of homes are mitigating any wobbles in confidence and as a result nearly half the properties on the market, over 45 per cent, have sold signs slapped across them” he says.

Compared to the period around the referendum a year ago, more sellers have come to market and more buyers are buying. 

The number of sales agreed is up by 4.6 per cent in June 2017 compared to June 2016, and the number of sellers coming to market is also up on the same period a year ago, with a 7.6 per cent increase in fresh choice. '

 

 

No mention that having 45% SSTC might be the sign of problems in sourcing mortgages?Time will tell.Looking at Leicester,huge chunks are SSTC,but transaction numbers over the last few months haven't been anything other than normal.

So,either

1) we're going to have a bumper month or two for transactions

2) or people are dragging their feet for a reason

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Same old blinkered mindset - 'a 0.1% rise is better than a 0.4% fall...'. 

Cast-iron blinkers that I fear are permanently superglued to their heads. 

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To paraphrase, Miles says strong demand is mitigating weak demand. Ffs.

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58 minutes ago, Freki said:

I would be more interested in knowing the completion rate of the SSTCs

Don't go spooking the herd now, there's a good chap!

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2 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Estate Agent Today 17/7/17

'The housing market is approaching something of a standstill as the summer holiday season begins according to a downbeat report from Rightmove.

The average price of newly-marketed property in July is almost static, up by just 0.1 per cent - the equivalent of £312 - although this is a better performance than the June figure reported by Rightmove, which showed a 0.4 per cent fall.

It says the strength of buyer demand and lack of new build and existing property coming to market have resulted in over 45 per cent of agents’ property stock being sold subject to contract. 

This is the highest proportion ever recorded by Rightmove since we started tracking it seven years ago.

“Prices are in the summer doldrums. Sellers coming to market at this time of year have to price more keenly as the traditionally bubblier spring selling season is over and prospective buyers are distracted by their own summer holiday plans” says 

Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and its housing market analyst.

But he insists that a year on from the EU referendum the fundamentals remain strong. “Low unemployment, low interest rates, strong demand and historic undersupply of homes are mitigating any wobbles in confidence and as a result nearly half the properties on the market, over 45 per cent, have sold signs slapped across them” he says.

Compared to the period around the referendum a year ago, more sellers have come to market and more buyers are buying. 

The number of sales agreed is up by 4.6 per cent in June 2017 compared to June 2016, and the number of sellers coming to market is also up on the same period a year ago, with a 7.6 per cent increase in fresh choice. '

 

 

No mention that having 45% SSTC might be the sign of problems in sourcing mortgages?Time will tell.Looking at Leicester,huge chunks are SSTC,but transaction numbers over the last few months haven't been anything other than normal.

So,either

1) we're going to have a bumper month or two for transactions

2) or people are dragging their feet for a reason

The reference to June sales is interesting because that doesn't appear in LR data yet AFAICT. So does "agreed sales" mean "SSTC" and if so does it mean the number of properties showing SSTC is up 4.6% on rightmove YOY or that 4.6% more turned from available to SSTC in that month ?

The RM reported figures in volumes seem to lag the LR data which appears in "Sold Prices". What you can do though is add up the non displayed months manually and guesstimate the volumes, bearing in mind non completed months are often shown and there may be backdated data (I have never seen any examples of that but it may happen).

In my area I am guesstimating volumes in April almost 50% down compared to March, and volumes in May looking like they may well produce a 10 year low.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

2) or people are dragging their feet for a reason

Sellers are thinking twice because of the costs.  I've just sold and bought at the bottom end of the market (because of an unbearable neighbour who made my life hell) and it's cost me around £6K.......EA/solicitors/stamp duty etc.  I sold a 2 bed terrace and bought a 2 bed flat in SW.

1 hour ago, Freki said:

I would be more interested in knowing the completion rate of the SSTCs

The process has become more complicated and chains are a nightmare.  I nearly sold last summer but the buyer tried to "gazunder" a day before exchange of contracts after 2/3months of the process.  There was even a moving date arranged.  In the words of a famous politico I told him to "go whistle" and the sale fell through. The whole chain was broken.

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34 minutes ago, janch said:

Sellers are thinking twice because of the costs.  I've just sold and bought at the bottom end of the market (because of an unbearable neighbour who made my life hell) and it's cost me around £6K.......EA/solicitors/stamp duty etc.  I sold a 2 bed terrace and bought a 2 bed flat in SW.

The process has become more complicated and chains are a nightmare.  I nearly sold last summer but the buyer tried to "gazunder" a day before exchange of contracts after 2/3months of the process.  There was even a moving date arranged.  In the words of a famous politico I told him to "go whistle" and the sale fell through. The whole chain was broken.

Why should chains be any worse now ? I have one anecdotal about a chain, but bottom line is I don't see any reason why chains should be more of a problem now than they were in the past.

An increasing tendency for people to try to gazunder could be causing the volume collapse. Or for example the banks deciding they want to slow down the whole process because of future uncertainty in the market.

Edit : Further to this, I guess the chains collapsing could be due to the removal of the HTB prop. New build volumes seem to have dissappeard after Dec 31.

Edited by Gigantic Purple Slug

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3 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Estate Agent Today 17/7/17

'The housing market is approaching something of a standstill as the summer holiday season begins according to a downbeat report from Rightmove.

The average price of newly-marketed property in July is almost static, up by just 0.1 per cent - the equivalent of £312 - although this is a better performance than the June figure reported by Rightmove, which showed a 0.4 per cent fall.

It says the strength of buyer demand and lack of new build and existing property coming to market have resulted in over 45 per cent of agents’ property stock being sold subject to contract. 

This is the highest proportion ever recorded by Rightmove since we started tracking it seven years ago.

“Prices are in the summer doldrums. Sellers coming to market at this time of year have to price more keenly as the traditionally bubblier spring selling season is over and prospective buyers are distracted by their own summer holiday plans” says 

Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and its housing market analyst.

But he insists that a year on from the EU referendum the fundamentals remain strong. “Low unemployment, low interest rates, strong demand and historic undersupply of homes are mitigating any wobbles in confidence and as a result nearly half the properties on the market, over 45 per cent, have sold signs slapped across them” he says.

Compared to the period around the referendum a year ago, more sellers have come to market and more buyers are buying. 

The number of sales agreed is up by 4.6 per cent in June 2017 compared to June 2016, and the number of sellers coming to market is also up on the same period a year ago, with a 7.6 per cent increase in fresh choice. '

 

 

No mention that having 45% SSTC might be the sign of problems in sourcing mortgages?Time will tell.Looking at Leicester,huge chunks are SSTC,but transaction numbers over the last few months haven't been anything other than normal.

So,either

1) we're going to have a bumper month or two for transactions

2) or people are dragging their feet for a reason

No one wants to buy...no one wants to sell, no one wants to move...the banks will collapse again when no one borrows....there is only one solution to this....LOWER PRICES !!!!!

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I wonder if EAs are refusing instructions from kite flyers, or at least not bothering to go through the hassle of putting them on Rightmove?

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2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I wonder if EAs are refusing instructions from kite flyers, or at least not bothering to go through the hassle of putting them on Rightmove?

Wouldn't be my experience. There are two negatives for agents. One is that they might have to do lots of viewings with little or no success. But if you have the staff around twiddling their thumbs then why not. The other thing is that you might get a bad rep for overpricing. But its only die hards like us that probably analyse the market close enough to establish stuff like this.

Bottom line is that if you don't get instructions, you can't get sales - and if you don't get the instruction you can't try to beat the vendor down to a more reasonable price.

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9 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Bottom line is that if you don't get instructions, you can't get sales 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 

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1 hour ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Wouldn't be my experience. There are two negatives for agents. One is that they might have to do lots of viewings with little or no success. But if you have the staff around twiddling their thumbs then why not. The other thing is that you might get a bad rep for overpricing. But its only die hards like us that probably analyse the market close enough to establish stuff like this.

Bottom line is that if you don't get instructions, you can't get sales - and if you don't get the instruction you can't try to beat the vendor down to a more reasonable price.

Fair enough.

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21 minutes ago, Mine the wheatfield said:

We all know RM data is sooo good, and they don't have Vested Interests either.

Yeah, RM index is best not given any airtime by anyone.

 

Just browse RM with PB and you'll see how an IAP index is just totable BS.

 

Can I get any more TLA in 1 post ?

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4 hours ago, Fretful Mother said:

Is Estate Agency the only profession where "sold" items are still counted in "stock"?

 

I definitely know of at least 3 examples where sold houses were still showing on RM as SSTC  3-6 months after the sale had completed.... and that was back when the market was 'booming' so I imagine it's an EA trick that's even more prevalent now that the market is stagnating and volumes are down. 

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27 minutes ago, nome said:

I definitely know of at least 3 examples where sold houses were still showing on RM as SSTC  3-6 months after the sale had completed.... and that was back when the market was 'booming' so I imagine it's an EA trick that's even more prevalent now that the market is stagnating and volumes are down. 

I hadn't thought of that angle.It would certainly explain the rather high per centage of SSTC

 

Take LE3.

405 houses available and a further 446(yes,446) SSTC.

 

On average there are 100 transactions per month in LE3 according to RM sales data.

Actually,Jan-Mar was about 80 per month

Now given it normally takes 3 months to exchange ,even without any new sales being agreed,LE3 ,EA's are going to be in for bumper sales figures..............

There's something going on here,not quite sure what,but it's not normal especially given RM have stopped updating their Marketed properties data since Nov 16

 

Edited by Sancho Panza

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Seeing a lot of instructions at kite flying intro prices. Not even bothering to arrange a viewing. Usually it sits for 3 to 6 months.

Eas are still clinging onto the booming market fantasy. Nothing selling except big price cuts.

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Is it low supply when they keep putting notes through the door to say they have people ready to buy.....well nobody will be selling if the cost of buying, even moving sideways is many thousands of pounds and there are no homes to buy anyway.......;)

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9 hours ago, Mine the wheatfield said:

Is it (unlikely) the same cost to an EA irrespective of status?

 

I'm pretty certain most EA's just pay a set, one off, upfront (annual/monthly?) fee to access RM, rather than paying a fee for each individual property they list... so no it shouldn't cost them any more to leave it visible on RM long after the sale has completed and the property is no longer on the market.

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4 hours ago, nome said:

I'm pretty certain most EA's just pay a set, one off, upfront (annual/monthly?) fee to access RM, rather than paying a fee for each individual property they list... so no it shouldn't cost them any more to leave it visible on RM long after the sale has completed and the property is no longer on the market.

I appreciate the answer.  In that case wouldn't it be in the EA's interest to have many sold? and show how successful they are.  I'm trying to understand what is the reasoning behind the EA's action (danger trying to find logic).

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