ItalianV6

Rightmove +0.1%

16 posts in this topic

so pretty much flat. for me the market being flat is almost as good as a fall. Very close. 

Edited by jiltedjen

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It's an index of asking price though, so at best an indicator of seller sentiment and at worst utterly meaningless.

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YoY now down to +2.8%, so falling in real terms.

Asking prices for people buying their first home (how do they define something being sold by who might buy it in the future?!?) was -1.7% last month, +3.8% YoY. Still positive in real terms but this, too, may be turning.

Figures from the Guardian report - the 'bad' news is buried towards the end, naturally. 

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1 hour ago, ftb_fml said:

It's an index of asking price though, so at best an indicator of seller sentiment and at worst utterly meaningless.

Exactly, and from the areas I'm looking at, very few are lowering their expectations for now. More interested in the land registry figures.

Edited by Barnsey

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Anyone with experience of previous crashes know if these kind of numbers are what we could expect in the run-up?

From my limited research it looks like bubbles tend to expand to a point and then drop off a cliff.

This just seems like the market is dying completely and I have a horrible feeling things could just flatline like this for years. We would eventually have real-terms lower prices but without the sudden drop to get things moving. 

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15 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Anyone with experience of previous crashes know if these kind of numbers are what we could expect in the run-up?

From my limited research it looks like bubbles tend to expand to a point and then drop off a cliff.

This just seems like the market is dying completely and I have a horrible feeling things could just flatline like this for years. We would eventually have real-terms lower prices but without the sudden drop to get things moving. 

Despite bizarrely low interest rates of recent times, things don't tend to flatline because people follow a herd mentality. I don't think house prices can be any different once the odd seller gets desperate and takes a low offer in a certain street. 

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2 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

It's an index of asking price though, so at best an indicator of seller sentiment and at worst utterly meaningless.

It is worse as it is an index of INITIAL asking prices. So if I list at 250k and next day reduce it to 200k the figure and only figure used by the index is 250k.

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1 minute ago, satch said:

It is worse as it is an index of INITIAL asking prices. So if I list at 250k and next day reduce it to 200k the figure and only figure used by the index is 250k.

Didn't know that, thanks Satch!

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Why would anyone pay the slightest attention to this type of data when they can see several versions of sold prices.  Its a bit like the Chartered Surveyors predictions - makes them feel important, gives bears/bulls something to get excited about but anyone with a serious interest in the market would/should pay them little regard.

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I was looking at a place the other day on right move. 

Zoopla had its estimation of its value at the current time of 320,000 based on previoiuys sale price.

It was up for 475,000.... 

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23 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

I was looking at a place the other day on right move. 

Zoopla had its estimation of its value at the current time of 320,000 based on previoiuys sale price.

It was up for 475,000.... 

The Pimms is strong with that one

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1 hour ago, newgi said:

Probably the only guide worse than Rightmove is Zoopla.

I'm not so sure. The Zoopla index more or less correctly captured market sentiment around here (including quite hefty falls in the lead up to xmas last year), and then the slight bounce from over spring.

I haven't looked for a long time, admittedly, but the zoopla recommendation for houses around here seems to mirror sold prices quite closely (when checked against houseprices.co.uk etc), so I think that their models work reasonably well (at least for my area, but your mileage may differ).

Edit: Just checked again, and it's coming in slightly higher than I'd expect at the moment, but I don't think it's miles off

Edited by Henrik

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48 minutes ago, Henrik said:

I'm not so sure. The Zoopla index more or less correctly captured market sentiment around here (including quite hefty falls in the lead up to xmas last year), and then the slight bounce from over spring.

I haven't looked for a long time, admittedly, but the zoopla recommendation for houses around here seems to mirror sold prices quite closely (when checked against houseprices.co.uk etc), so I think that their models work reasonably well (at least for my area, but your mileage may differ).

Edit: Just checked again, and it's coming in slightly higher than I'd expect at the moment, but I don't think it's miles off

In the past I've found zoopla as a good guide where EAs stick the opening price.

Recently I've seen 3 or 4 way over what zoopla are predicting.

Its the ultimate vendor EA kite flying Pimms sipper, Murray wins Wimbledon price. 

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In addition to the point made by Satch (yes I agree Newgi as an index asking prices are a complete waste of space), there is the 'Devil in their detailed' map....most areas (NW, NE, SW etc) are showing a drop...far better to report this data as 7 of 10 regions are showing a monthly drop or 3 of 5 areas are showing an increase rather than a crude average that as we know can be easily swayed by large/small outliers.

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