taderuk Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 The Dow looking like closing up for the third week in the bounce. This madness can't go on. Time for me to open my spread betting account and ride this everything bubble down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said: The next none-food retailer to release results Bon marches holdings today. It’s like bang, bang , bang as Christmas trading updates roll in. Edited January 19, 2018 by Ash4781 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kidgorgeous Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 5 hours ago, durhamborn said: This ^.Trackers contain the likes of AA at £4.14 with £1.5 billion of debt.I like ETFs for certain things,where price increases push up all boats,but i think trackers will be and are poor investments going forward. I'm getting confused. AA is about 1.50 a share? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leonardratso Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 cheaper to invest in the real AA - alkies anon, least you get something out of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 hour ago, kidgorgeous said: I'm getting confused. AA is about 1.50 a share? It is now,its been £4.14 before and anyone paying into a tracker was buying it at that price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy74 Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I unfortunately missed the start of this thread, but have read the first few pages and followed the last 20 or so. However I’m not clever enough to understand a lot of it I recently starting pursuing a strategy similar to wicao after deciding I cannot time the market, sitting in cash for the last 2 years thinking a crash was coming whilst everyone else gets 20%+ on their equities. As a result, I’ve recently switched a lot to equities to meet a target allocation. As far as I understand this thread, the premise is that this is a bad idea right, and I should be more heavy cash or treasuries waiting for the deflationary crash? And ready to buy in on the reflation? Please correct me if I’m wrong. And why treasuries vs cash? Is it purely for the dollar vs Sterling? My cash savings are in dollars anyway, so is there a reason for treasuries rather than cash? Sorry for interrupting the thread but maybe a summary for simpletons like me could be useful for others Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, dannyf said: I unfortunately missed the start of this thread, but have read the first few pages and followed the last 20 or so. However I’m not clever enough to understand a lot of it I recently starting pursuing a strategy similar to wicao after deciding I cannot time the market, sitting in cash for the last 2 years thinking a crash was coming whilst everyone else gets 20%+ on their equities. As a result, I’ve recently switched a lot to equities to meet a target allocation. As far as I understand this thread, the premise is that this is a bad idea right, and I should be more heavy cash or treasuries waiting for the deflationary crash? And ready to buy in on the reflation? Please correct me if I’m wrong. And why treasuries vs cash? Is it purely for the dollar vs Sterling? My cash savings are in dollars anyway, so is there a reason for treasuries rather than cash? Sorry for interrupting the thread but maybe a summary for simpletons like me could be useful for others All thoughts on this thread are personal dannyf,and people should base their own investments on what they think themselves.Its more we share ideas here really and experience.For myself i think the markets (mainly US) are in the final parabolic phase now.The S+P could shoot to 3100 in this stage,or it could top out tomorrow.I think we will see a secular top in those markets soon,perhaps a level that i wont see again in my lifetime.Its for those reasons i sold out of stocks id owned since the late 80s in some cases and bought some goldies .I think in a bust the dollar will have its last day in the sun and do very well as will treasuries.Those on here who see us going straight to inflation wont like treasuries. I have no interest in if there is 20% more on equities as i sold shares that made 1000%+ in many cases over the cycle.My concern is not to get caught in a 70%+ capital loss.I let the tape do what it wants,as i know the debt situation will lead to a credit deflation as liquidity is going into reverse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrXxx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Interesting that you posted Danny, as I have followed from the beginning and was going to summarize and ask others to confirm that I have understood correctly. So here goes: 1.Companies are overleveraged with debt, their cash flow that services this is drying up AND interest rates are starting to rise (a double whammy), and so they fail...this is the deflation. 2. Next we will have reinflation where CB will QE to provide stimulus, but this time the money will go on infrastructure projects rather than propping up economy/banks via cheap credit. 3. This will then create inflation as the extra money "produced" by the CB means a £ as it was before is no longer worth the same (as there are twice as many £s in the system). 4. The suggestion/reason be in cash rather than equities in the short to mid term is twofold, one you don't know who is going to fail in equities, and two once equities have dropped you can buy the survivors, with asset rich/essentials for infrastructure/non~consumer being the best option as they will be stimulated by the new CB spending. 5. The $ treasuries are suggested as one, a hedge against the £ due to the $ still being the fiat used for international purchasing and so maintaining its strength over the £, AND treasuries over cash as they are more secure I.e the USA unlike your bank would never default. Have I got this right DB?...anything I have missed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsey Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 For anyone interested, at the end of the trading day today, the S&P 500 will have set a new record for longest streak without a 5% correction, 395 days. This data goes back to 1927. Make of that what you will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy74 Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 50 minutes ago, durhamborn said: All thoughts on this thread are personal dannyf,and people should base their own investments on what they think themselves.Its more we share ideas here really and experience.For myself i think the markets (mainly US) are in the final parabolic phase now.The S+P could shoot to 3100 in this stage,or it could top out tomorrow.I think we will see a secular top in those markets soon,perhaps a level that i wont see again in my lifetime.Its for those reasons i sold out of stocks id owned since the late 80s in some cases and bought some goldies .I think in a bust the dollar will have its last day in the sun and do very well as will treasuries.Those on here who see us going straight to inflation wont like treasuries. I have no interest in if there is 20% more on equities as i sold shares that made 1000%+ in many cases over the cycle.My concern is not to get caught in a 70%+ capital loss.I let the tape do what it wants,as i know the debt situation will lead to a credit deflation as liquidity is going into reverse. I understand it’s all personal opinions and not financial advice. Thanks very much for the reply, really appreciated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorn Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 This thread is really useful for analysis and a mull no question, dannyf. Agreed all personal opinions and analysis. Its hard to differentiate between just expecting things to keep going as they have versus looking for value. I am wishing it was easy and just go for trackers, but I am tending to smell BS everywhere out there these days so I am siding with DB more and more. It’s like all the normal capitalism stuff stopped working after the GFC when QE took over and muddied everything. Losers look like winners when they’ve access to cheap money. Might be better to try and pick winners from here on- when everything was going up you never had to pick the winners. Reading about Bonmache today and thinking yes of course they’re screwed, simply because that sort of thing was a macro prediction from DB’s predictions back last summer. It all fits so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrugglingMillennial Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 After yesterdays profit warning its looking like it might be carpet right to go next. They have been mentioned a number of times in this thread so its not a real shock. What are peoples thoughts on food retailers during the tough times, people always have to buy food right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Obviously its all about the likelihood of indirect government bail outs. A huge amount of refinancing has to go on over the next year or so, Carillion might be a portant of things to come. It's definitely time to batten down the hatches, it's going to be a rocky ride. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noallegiance Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 The race is definitely on for the next business closure: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42754940 Still, the former boss is a Camoron & Gidiot pal so they'll be fine... Look out Boots! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said: After yesterdays profit warning its looking like it might be carpet right to go next. They have been mentioned a number of times in this thread so its not a real shock. What are peoples thoughts on food retailers during the tough times, people always have to buy food right? I’d imagine Walmart will want to offload Asda. There is a problem though in I think Amazon will want to enter the market. I think it will come down to lobbying The regulators eg. whether a new player is allowed in or they can carve them up amongst the others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Noallegiance said: The race is definitely on for the next business closure: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42754940 Still, the former boss is a Camoron & Gidiot pal so they'll be fine... Look out Boots! A bit ominous close to Christmas trading statement. Edit: I thought their CFO also got poached too ? Edited January 20, 2018 by Ash4781 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Funn3r Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, Noallegiance said: Look out Boots! I go into a Boots about once a year and whenever I do I think "why is it still going?" Last time I was stuck for some generic non-prescription medication and I went in and asked if they had any, using the name of the chemical (clotrimazol) rather than a brand name. For starters I thought that it was weird that the lady who served me was heavily made up, slightly sneery, and wearing a white coat because she was covering the luxury perfume counter as well, which never used to happen they always used to have dedicated "beauty specialists". She knew exactly what I meant though and said yes we have Brand X at 8 quid a small tube. I smiled and said bit too expensive got anything cheaper? Without the slightest reaction she said yes we have Brand Y at 6 quid (same stuff.) After a bit more chat I said no sorry and later ordered 3 tubes online for about 3 quid each allowing for postage. Same goes for their general non-pharma products they can be found cheaper elsewhere without much difficulty. Boots is for people without money problems who have shopped there all their lives and automatically just shop in brain-off mode when they want some more back rub or whatever. Good luck with that in a crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wish I could afford one Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 11 hours ago, dannyf said: ... I recently starting pursuing a strategy similar to wicao after deciding I cannot time the market, sitting in cash for the last 2 years thinking a crash was coming whilst everyone else gets 20%+ on their equities. As a result, I’ve recently switched a lot to equities to meet a target allocation. ... As DB puts it everyone "should base their own investments on what they think themselves." I'm also not a registered professional so can't give financial advice (or charge you high fees). Instead like others on this thread I'm just a random bloke on the internet sharing what he's doing. All that said I hope this thread lives for a looong time. This is not a minute, day, week or even year story we're talking about here. We'll only know who made the right decisions for themselves in 20 or 30 years. It's possible we will have all made the right decisions. This is because we need to understand our own goals plus risk tolerance and not those of others which can drive us in different directions. It's also possible we all made the wrong ones... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitchfork Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 While I'm not suggesting that anyone should base their investment advice on opinions posted on a forum, the irony is that with a bit of effort and online research many people can easily DIY as well as or better than most 'professionals'. I remember back in the early 90's being given 'profressional' advice by a large and leading mortgage lender that I should take out an endowment for my mortgage and that no one takes a repayment mortgage as they are old fashioned. I was told the endowment would pay my mortgage and should also give a cash windfall at the end. I was really pressured into taking the endowment and the 'advisor' looked at me as if I was some kind of moron when I insisted that I wanted a repayment. Then they pushed hard to sell me payment protection cover and I kid you not I remember to this day one of the things they said - "I don't mean to worry you, but I know someone your age who got cancer and couldn't pay their mortgage". I was 22 years old at the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leonardratso Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 not sure how relevant this is, but when i signed into vanguard this morning there was a new popup saying something like 'because of MFIDII rules we need to confiirm your nationality' - i wonder if its going to affect my funds, i dont do any etfs on there so i suspect its for them really. But watch out folks, the reach might be further than we think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsey Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 DB has been a source of hope for many of us, but as he wisely says, do your own research, be diverse, ignore the mainstream media and look at the bigger picture rather than trying to make a quick buck. Investment firms exist not solely because of laziness but because it's difficult and highly unpredictable e.g. just because Gold is going up doesn't mean Blackrock's Gold and General fund will. CFDs are another way to lose money quickly because you think the market will react in a specific way to a specific event (as I found out). The stock market is now beyond irrational, but keeps going up due to funny money. How on earth do you make calculated investment decisions based in an illogical "sun always shines" mania? I'm a spectator for now, but have learned so much from this thread, hugely grateful to all contributors thus far. Once I get a place of my own I hope to use whatever money I have left to invest wisely and sustainably during the storms that lie dead ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 “Mother Of All Blow-Offs?” The Dow moved up an average of 120 pts per day in the nine trading days since the end of 2017. This includes one day in which the Dow dared to close 12 pts lower. That one day felt like a bear market. Over this entire period the Dow has appreciated 4.4%. Since the election, including the 1,000 pt plunge in the Dow futures that occurred when it was apparent Trump would win, the Dow has soared nearly 50%. http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mother-of-all-blow-offs/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dogtanian Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 @Funn3r interesting regarding boots. I get the impression that a lot of people shop there on account of the loyalty card points. I wonder what slices of demographic are heavily represented there... Millennials? Personally I get my repeat asthma medication there only because anywhere else you get the cheaper genetic types. The prices are pretty ambitious by and large whenever I browse though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, Noallegiance said: The race is definitely on for the next business closure: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42754940 Still, the former boss is a Camoron & Gidiot pal so they'll be fine... Look out Boots! Boots walgreens boots alliance....people will always get sick and require medicine, pharmacists are being promoted more to be the new drop-in doctors for basic health ailments and anxieties....the general care, beauty and over the counter medicines are more expensive than other places....even the generic aspirin and paracetamol are dearer than prices in a good supermarket.....their basic products for example shampoo, are of value.....find them hidden on the bottom shelf...superdrug often of better value, specsavers a good family business.....pays to shop around, different items, different places, different times. Edited January 20, 2018 by winkie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 On 1/19/2018 at 12:59 PM, StarsEnd said: Anybody got any thoughts as to who might be the next to suffer a whopping great fall in their share price? I know a fair few have already but got to be more to come. There's a calendar here http://www.lse.co.uk/financial-diary.asp?date=19-JAN-2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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