Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.

[Lavalas]

21 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

RPI 4% oldsport,benefits going up zero,wages going up about 2.5%.More of a squeeze.Given most of the inflation is also going directly abroad (most is due to the £/$ on Chinese imports) once credit tops out its going to get a lot worse.I expect the dollar to do the opposite of what the markets think and head down towards my target of 88.I still think gold might take a pop up to $1450 before this thing really gets going.

What is good is a lot of stocks are really getting hit hard already.Big companies as well.As Sancho said a lot of 70% down stocks out there (and a lot more to come).

DXY really starting to resume its path downwards now. -.47 today and close to dipping below 94z

[Democorruptcy]

20 hours ago, Eddie_George said:

Who buys magazines in this day and age? I can't see them lasting. The rest of their stock is way overpriced. Same goes for Boots, but at least they can milk the NHS.

I thought more reading was moving online and agree WH Smith look expensive. Rymans are much cheaper.

[Democorruptcy]

25 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

What is good is a lot of stocks are really getting hit hard already.Big companies as well.As Sancho said a lot of 70% down stocks out there (and a lot more to come).

Top 5 shares to short might be interesting.

[durhamborn]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

Top 5 shares to short might be interesting.

I would avoid shorting individual companies as there is always the risk of a takeover etc and it involves leverage and that is best avoided.However il pick 3 just for fun including the S+P itself.

Amazon AMZN $1129

NVIDIA Corp NVDA $212.63

SPY (s+p tracker) $258.05

 

[stuckmojo]

16 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

I would avoid shorting individual companies as there is always the risk of a takeover etc and it involves leverage and that is best avoided.However il pick 3 just for fun including the S+P itself.

Amazon AMZN $1129

NVIDIA Corp NVDA $212.63

SPY (s+p tracker) $258.05

 

NVIDIA because of BitCoin? 

[Sancho Panza]

21 hours ago, Dogtanian said:

As described above wh Smith seem to be special in so far as having a bit of a monopoly in train stations and airports.  Large chocolate with your newspaper for promotional price of 50p anyone?  Or have they moved onto more pc smoothies now?

 

With regard to hard copy magazines I personally much prefer reading paper than backlit tablet screen.  Wired magazine offered me a two year sub for £28 couple of years ago after previously buying as gift for someone else years back.  Recently before I stopped the direct debit (probably shouldn't have) I realized I had been enrolled for another 2 years.  I think the cover price is circa £4 so that really is a big saving.  Less promotional type mags (thinking pc Pro) certainly don't offer such deep discounts compared with cover price.

Looked at colour e-ink screens a few years ago but don't think there was any viable options.  I love my kindle e ink screen and actually prefer reading books compared with paperback ( anecdotally I believe I'm the outlier their). However I can't understand the amount of people that "upgraded" their e-ink screens to tablets like the Kindle fire as their chosen reading device.

Still see Amazon very much entrenched in the market but very interesting reading different views.  Wonder if it could be similar to the dot com when companies like Google crashed price wise ? But later recovered stronger than ever.

 

 

19 hours ago, Will! said:

For anyone who wants a reflation energy trade with added risk, there's EDF!

Funny you should mention that Will,.When I had some time at the weekend,I was running a slide rule over Euro/US energy suppliers and also telecoms.The euro area is fraught with political risk and heritage issues such as debt and pension liabilities.The US energy companies are near the top of their 15 year charts.

Having said that,there does appear a bit of value in those utilities based in the Euro area.

What caught my attention much more was the telecoms sector,which appears to have not enjoyed much of the last five year run up.Not just talking Vodafone,but also,AT&T,Verizon,Orange(heritage risk),Swisscom.

4 hours ago, durhamborn said:

I was looking at Intu the owner of most of the big shopping malls.£5 billion of debt.Net interest is about half the operating profit.Supposed net assets of £5 billion would make them around 30%/40% undervalued.However in a reflation can they push rents up quicker than their interest rate bill will be going up?.Add on a refinance if asset prices fall 30%.A company that might be cheap,or might end up being owned by the bond holders with zero left for the equity.?

Worth noting that that debt i balanced against £10bn assets which is £9bn property and illiquid property at that.

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Intu are an interesting one, recently been changed to hold from sell due to no further deterioration since the Summer, but they are geared above average, fingers in too many pies, too much reliance on the dining side of retail. On a positive note they are taking steps to streamline in some instances, such as the recent 50% stake sell off of the Chapelfield shopping centre in Norwich. They're going to be hit very hard I think next year and 2019, the British consumer is having one last hurrah this Christmas then I think we're done. The closing of BHS had a notable impact on the business, what if we see Debenhams go bust, and perhaps a couple of the Intu situated M&S stores?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy/uk-retailers-suffer-worst-october-since-2008-brc-idUKKBN1D701B

Incredible isn't it, that we're seeing headlines like this despite employment at record highs and interest rates at rock bottom. The consumer is tapped out. Peak debt, peak everything. We're starting the next crisis with no room to go lower with rates to stimulate spending.

I expect to see many overseas based firms early next year, which employ many in these regional traditionally working class towns/cities where Intu have invested heavily such as Derby and Nottingham, to trigger their 1 year contingency plans to relocate jobs or streamline prior to March 2019. Combine that with exactly what we've discussed on here regarding zombie companies, and it's not looking great.

You've nailed it with the bit in bold.All part of this developing meme that actually,IR rises may not play a meaningful part in the looming correction due to the distortions in risk pricing created by the CB's.

As for retail it's fascinating to watch especially if this really is the consumer unwind that's been inbound since 2008.Like you,I think there's a real feeling that amongst heavily indebted consumers that they can spend no longer.As Galbraith once said about the Wall St crash-and I paraphrase

'Noone could explain why, but one day people turned up and just didn't want to play any more.'

If M&S (in which we currently hold a position) start exiting at the end of leases,then some of these centres could really suffer.There was a poster on here over the years-SNACR- who wrote some insightful stuff on retail and he always talked about anchor stores.Debenhams/M&S are anchor stores that draw in punters who spend in other shops.

Personally,I don't think Debenhams will make it without a rights issue/debt for equity swap.Time will tell.

[Sancho Panza]

1 hour ago, oldsport said:

Do today's inflation figures all fit in with the big picture?

Shaun Richards posts on this today.He's about as scathing as you can be without being scathing,which is very much the style of his website.

He also delivers a fair dig at the use of imputed rental data in CPIH.One of the few economists that gets any airtime that tries to expose it for what it is-an accounting fiction.

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2017/11/14/has-uk-inflation-peaked/

 

 

'Moving to today’s theme of inflation Andy (Haldane) did have some thoughts for us.

It is well-known that increases in the cost of living hit hardest those on lowest incomes.  Rising inflation worsens the well-known “poverty premium” the poorest in society already face in the higher costs they pay for the everyday goods and services they buy.

I hope that Andy thought hard about the role his “Sledgehammer QE” and “muscular” monetary easing in August 2016 had in making the lot of these people worse by contributing to the fall of the UK Pound and raising UK inflation prospects. Speaking of inflation prospects what does he think now?

 Price rises across the whole economy are currently running well above the 2% inflation target and are expected to remain above-target for the next few years.

That is not cheerful stuff from Andy but there are several problems with it. Firstly you cannot forecast inflation ahead like that in the credit crunch era as for example you would have been left with egg on your face when oil prices dropped a couple of years ago. In addition Andy’s own record on forecasting or if you like Forward Guidance is poor as in his role of Chief Economist he forecasts an increase in wage inflation every year and has yet to be correct. Of course when you take out a lottery ticket like that you will eventually be correct but that ignores the years of failure.

The factors keeping inflation up were as shown below/

In October 2017, the food category, which grew by 4.2% since October 2016, contributed 0.3 percentage points to the overall 12-month growth rate……Recreation and culture, with prices rising by 0.5% between September and October 2017, compared with a smaller rise of 0.2% a year earlier.

There was also a rise in electricity prices. On the other side of the coin we saw transport and furniture and household services pulling in a downwards fashion on the annual inflation rate.

CPIH

The additional factor in CPIH which is the addition of rents which are never paid to the owner occupied housing sector did its planed job one more time in October.

Housing and household services, where owner occupiers’ housing costs had the largest downward effect, with prices remaining unchanged between September 2017 and October 2017, having seen a particularly large increase of 0.4% in the same period a year ago.

This is essentially driven by this.

Private rental prices paid by tenants in Great Britain rose by 1.5% in the 12 months to October 2017; this is down from 1.6% in September 2017.

I would be interested to know if those who rent are seeing lower inflation but also you can see how this pulls down the annual inflation rate. Fair enough ( if accurate as our statisticians have had problems here) for those who rent but the  impact is magnified by the use of Imputed Rent for those who own their property so the measure of inflation is pulled down even more.'

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, durhamborn said:

RPI 4% oldsport,benefits going up zero,wages going up about 2.5%.More of a squeeze.Given most of the inflation is also going directly abroad (most is due to the £/$ on Chinese imports) once credit tops out its going to get a lot worse.I expect the dollar to do the opposite of what the markets think and head down towards my target of 88.I still think gold might take a pop up to $1450 before this thing really gets going.

What is good is a lot of stocks are really getting hit hard already.Big companies as well.As Sancho said a lot of 70% down stocks out there (and a lot more to come).

Pound isn't fully the cause of import inflation, Chinese producer input prices are also going up, the deflationary impulse in that area is coming to an end.  I'm unsurprised that I can see a pattern between when Chinese goods are more expensive UK inflation increases and visa versa.

https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/chinese-ppi-464

[Sancho Panza]

1 hour ago, durhamborn said:

RPI 4% oldsport,benefits going up zero,wages going up about 2.5%.More of a squeeze.Given most of the inflation is also going directly abroad (most is due to the £/$ on Chinese imports) once credit tops out its going to get a lot worse.I expect the dollar to do the opposite of what the markets think and head down towards my target of 88.I still think gold might take a pop up to $1450 before this thing really gets going.

What is good is a lot of stocks are really getting hit hard already.Big companies as well.As Sancho said a lot of 70% down stocks out there (and a lot more to come).

Agreed.We're in the fortunate position of being heavily cash and able to wait.But I'm getting excited here.This is like 2015 with the goldies all over again.Some sectors are being totally oversold whilst Berkeley/WHSMith/Persimmon are flying.

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I thought more reading was moving online and agree WH Smith look expensive. Rymans are much cheaper.

WHS have had an amazing run.If I had any,I'd have sold them years ago.

[Sancho Panza]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Top 5 shares to short might be interesting.

 

1 hour ago, durhamborn said:

I would avoid shorting individual companies as there is always the risk of a takeover etc and it involves leverage and that is best avoided.However il pick 3 just for fun including the S+P itself.

Amazon AMZN $1129

NVIDIA Corp NVDA $212.63

SPY (s+p tracker) $258.05

 

You can always buy put options.Some liquid names/strikes go out a year and beyond

http://data.theice.com/ViewData/Default.aspx

Not sure how you'd trade US options aside from spread betters.

[Sancho Panza]

15 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Pound isn't fully the cause of import inflation, Chinese producer input prices are also going up, the deflationary impulse in that area is coming to an end.  I'm unsurprised that I can see a pattern between when Chinese goods are more expensive UK inflation increases and visa versa.

https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/chinese-ppi-464

http://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-the-economy/2017/11/chinas-central-bank-governor-warns-of-minsky-moment-risk/

 China’s central bank governor warns of ‘Minsky Moment’ risk

By Paul Hodges on 13 November, 2017 in Financial Events

The world is coming to the end of probably the greatest financial bubble ever seen.  Since the financial crisis began in 2008, central banks in China, the USA, Europe, the UK and Japan have created over $30tn of debt.

China has created more than half of this debt as the chart shows, and its total debt is now around 260% of debt.  Its actions are therefore far more important for global financial markets than anything done by the Western central banks – just as China’s initial stimulus was the original motor for the post-2008 “recovery”.

Historians are therefore likely to look back at last month’s National People’s Congress as a key turning point.

It is clear that although Premier Li retained his post, he has effectively been sidelined in terms of economic policy.  This is important as he was the architect of the stimulus policy.  Now, President Xi Jinping appears to have taken full charge of the economy, and it seems that a crackdown may be underway, as its central bank chief governor Zhou Xiaochuan has been explaining:

• Zhou first raised the issue at the National Congress last month, warning of the risk of a “Minsky Moment” in the economy, where debt or currency pressures could park a sudden collapse in asset prices – as occurred in the US subprime crisis.  “If there are too many pro-cyclical factors in the economy, cyclical fluctuations are magnified and there is excessive optimism during the period, accumulating contradictions that could lead to the so-called Minsky Moment.  We should focus on preventing a dramatic adjustment.”
• Then last week, he published a warning that “China’s financial sector is and will be in a period with high risks that are easily triggered. Under pressure from multiple factors at home and abroad, the risks are multiple, broad, hidden, complex, sudden, contagious, and hazardous. The structural unbalance is salient; law-breaking and disorders are rampant; latent risks are accumulating; [and the financial system’s] vulnerability is obviously increasing. [China] should prevent both the “black swan” events and the “gray rhino” risks.”

We can be sure that Zhou was not speaking “off the cuff” or just in a personal capacity when he made these statements, as his comments have been carried on both the official Xinhua news agency and on the People’s Bank of China website.  As Bloomberg report, he went on to set out 10 key areas for action:

• “China’s financial system faces domestic and overseas pressures; structural imbalance is a serious problem and regulations are frequently violated
• Some state-owned enterprises face severe debt risks, the problem of “zombie companies” is being solved slowly, and some local governments are adding leverage
• Financial institutions are not competitive and pricing of risk is weak; the financial system cannot soothe herd behaviors, asset bubbles and risks by itself
• Some high-risk activities are creating market bubbles under the cover of “financial innovation”
• More companies have been defaulting on bonds, and issuance has been slowing; credit risks are impacting the public’s and even foreigners’ confidence in China’s financial health
• Some Internet companies that claim to help people access finance are actually Ponzi schemes; and some regulators are too close to the firms and people they are supposed to oversee
• China’s financial regulation lags behind international standards and focuses too much on fostering certain industries; there’s a lack of clarity in what central and regional government should be responsible for, so some activities are not well regulated
• China should increase direct financing as well as expand the bond market; reduce intervention in the equity market and reform the initial public offering system; pursue yuan internationalization and capital account convertibility
• China should let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of financial resources, and reduce the distortion effect of any intervention
• China should improve coordination among financial regulators”

Clearly, Xi’s reappointment as President means the end of “business as usual” for China, and for the support provided to the global economy by Li’s stimulus policies.  Xi’s own comments at the Congress confirm the change of direction, particularly his decision to abandon the idea of setting targets for GDP growth.  As the press conference following the Congress confirmed, the focus is now on the quality of growth:

“China’s main social contradiction has changed and its economic development is moving to a stage of high-quality growth from a high-rate of expansion of the GDP,” said Yang Weimin, deputy head of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs. “The biggest problem facing us now … is the inadequate quality of development.”

Companies and investors should not ignore the warnings now coming out from Beijing about the change of strategy.  China’s lending bubble – particularly in property, is likely coming to an end.  In turn, this will lead to a bumpy ride for the global economy.'

[winkie]

Butter has increased 56% in the last six months......250g up from 90p to £1.40......the Danish stuff costs £2 plus a packet.

Inflation and shrinkage in food at the moment is rife.

The price of butter barometer.

[Houdini]

33 minutes ago, winkie said:

Butter has increased 56% in the last six months......250g up from 90p to £1.40......the Danish stuff costs £2 plus a packet.

Inflation and shrinkage in food at the moment is rife.

The price of butter barometer.

I think butter is an extreme example. Various things created a glut in the market 2 years back resulting in a cull of cattle across Europe. The consequence of that is that supply is currently less than demand

[durhamborn]

I think we should make clear for any new readers that when we talk about a massive deflation we are talking a debt deflation and a huge downturn mostly driven by balance sheets both company and private.The demand drop will be quick and very sharp.I do think we might see price deflation running at -2% in the US,but the key isnt headline numbers.Its the fact balance sheets have so much leverage that very low inflation or falling margins will blow them up.Its about wealth destruction and financial dislocation on a massive scale and a following distribution cycle.

I still think we might see a sharp 25% sell off at some point followed by a small recovery, only for the bear to take things down again 60%+ peak to trough.

Im starting to see oil going to $15 in the bust.Hope the transports lock in those prices.Hedging at the right time could be crucial.

[durhamborn]

37 minutes ago, winkie said:

Butter has increased 56% in the last six months......250g up from 90p to £1.40......the Danish stuff costs £2 plus a packet.

Inflation and shrinkage in food at the moment is rife.

The price of butter barometer.

I got £80 worth of quality meat and some nice veg for £14 in Tesco winkie last night.Im buying a third freezer from Gumtree as soon as possible (i dont like paying over £30) to fill it up.Be crowds when they bring the reduced out soon  so i need to take advantage while i can.

[winkie]

18 minutes ago, Houdini said:

I think butter is an extreme example. Various things created a glut in the market 2 years back resulting in a cull of cattle across Europe. The consequence of that is that supply is currently less than demand

Reminds me of the butter mountains of the past, food not just butter being destroyed to keep the supply down so prices can remain high.....madness.....imo food should never be wasted but we waste 30% of all food that is produced by farmers, suppliers, retailers and consumers.

13 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

I got £80 worth of quality meat and some nice veg for £14 in Tesco winkie last night.Im buying a third freezer from Gumtree as soon as possible (i dont like paying over £30) to fill it up.Be crowds when they bring the reduced out soon  so i need to take advantage while i can.

Yes, agree with you some will only be able to eat unprocessed meat if reduced meat.....already see more people waiting for food to be reduced before they buy, nothing at all wrong with the food, I don't blame them.

I find It is important to rotate whatever is stored in a freezer because if left too long the quality and texture will deteriorate, can get frostbite, so best take something out when putting something in.......if you are buying more freezer space there is the running costs to consider......past by places selling whole and half pigs and lamb for the freezer, turkeys soon, not bought it even saw kid goat sell the milk also..... also sold is unpasteurised milk, good for making cheese....like wine and beer making cheese and yogurt is becoming very popular.....if it carries on be butter next.

 

[Bricks n' mortar]

Christmas time is prime for finding reduced whipping cream in the supermarket.  I got mine for 10p a pint a few boxing days ago.  And I made butter from it. 

 

[nome]

I feel so reassured after consuming my latest piece of spoon fed propaganda courtesy of our State Controlled Broadcaster.... apparently inflation has DEFINITELY peaked and there DEFINITELY won't be any further IR rises until the end of next year at the earliest.

 

In fact I now feel so chipper about things I'm going to go out and buy myself a house first thing in the morning.

[zugzwang]

2 hours ago, durhamborn said:

I think we should make clear for any new readers that when we talk about a massive deflation we are talking a debt deflation and a huge downturn mostly driven by balance sheets both company and private.The demand drop will be quick and very sharp.I do think we might see price deflation running at -2% in the US,but the key isnt headline numbers.Its the fact balance sheets have so much leverage that very low inflation or falling margins will blow them up.Its about wealth destruction and financial dislocation on a massive scale and a following distribution cycle.

I still think we might see a sharp 25% sell off at some point followed by a small recovery, only for the bear to take things down again 60%+ peak to trough.

Im starting to see oil going to $15 in the bust.Hope the transports lock in those prices.Hedging at the right time could be crucial.

Chinese 10yr broke 4% for the first time since 2014 today.

Starting to look a little uncomfortable.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-14/more-pain-ahead-for-china-bonds-after-10-year-yield-breaches-4

Edited November 14, 2017 by zugzwang

[Calcutta]

3 hours ago, nome said:

I feel so reassured after consuming my latest piece of spoon fed propaganda courtesy of our State Controlled Broadcaster.... apparently inflation has DEFINITELY peaked and there DEFINITELY won't be any further IR rises until the end of next year at the earliest.

 

In fact I now feel so chipper about things I'm going to go out and buy myself a house first thing in the morning.

That's your decision, good for you, hope it works out for you.

Just please don't be one of these ***** who comes back here everyday wasting my time with your reasons and/excuses and trying to troll the residents.

[Democorruptcy]

9 hours ago, durhamborn said:

I would avoid shorting individual companies as there is always the risk of a takeover etc and it involves leverage and that is best avoided.However il pick 3 just for fun including the S+P itself.

Amazon AMZN $1129

NVIDIA Corp NVDA $212.63

SPY (s+p tracker) $258.05

 

NVDA is a steep chart! Up over 100% in a year.

[Eddie_George]

11 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Having said that,my dad has been over from abroad and has picked up my habit of looking at shops and watching the footfall as he browses.He said he couldn't believe how many barber shops he was seeing,that were all mostly empty.Also remarked on the increasing tide of charity shops and empties in Leicester city centre.

Funnily enough, I found myself counting barber shops and tattoo parlours today. Loads of them, and so many close to each other too.

Edited November 14, 2017 by Eddie_George

[nome]

7 hours ago, Calcutta said:

That's your decision, good for you, hope it works out for you.

Just please don't be one of these ***** who comes back here everyday wasting my time with your reasons and/excuses and trying to troll the residents.

 

I'm guessing you haven't been around here long enough to appreciate when someones being sarcastic/ironic!

[UnconventionalWisdom]

7 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

NVDA is a steep chart! Up over 100% in a year.

Massive increase from 3 years ago. Proof AI is becoming more widespread? 

[durhamborn]

Crushing your currency when we have very little manufacturing to substitute to might not be such a good idea.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-average-wage-growth-rate-inflation-real-incomes-fall-ons-a8055706.html

"real wages are still falling and showing the pick-up in earnings expected by the Bank of England has still not materialised."