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Grab_Some_Popcorn

Crash going mainstream

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On a course at the SE council where I work yesterday. 10 participants aged 30 to 50. Discussion moved on to Tory manifesto, pensioners selling houses to pay for care... Etc. Trainer says "and you've seen what is happening in London? House prices fallen, rents coming down, and thats going to ripple out to the rest of SE."

I smirked :) 

Nobody replied but there were lots of confused faces. These are all drip drip drips of information that will change market sentiment. 

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No bulls left in the office. The best they can come out with is: prices will dip then shoot up again and/or my borough is still showing an increase. 

Interesting that the reporter would even probe her on this. Did someone mention that this could be the next Chancellor? 

ITV News Meridian asked Ms Rudd if she knew what the average house price was in her constituency of Hastings and Rye.

The Home Secretary replied "er yes I do, do you know what it is?" to which the reporter responded "I do, you tell me" Ms Rudd then laughed and replied "it's certainly only a little bit above a hundred thousand, that's true".

After giving a very confident answer the Home Secretary was told she was over £100,000 out as the average house price in her constituency is £217,983.

http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-18/amber-rudd-caught-out-over-constituency-house-prices/

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1 hour ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

On a course at the SE council where I work yesterday. 10 participants aged 30 to 50. Discussion moved on to Tory manifesto, pensioners selling houses to pay for care... Etc. Trainer says "and you've seen what is happening in London? House prices fallen, rents coming down, and thats going to ripple out to the rest of SE."

I smirked :) 

Nobody replied but there were lots of confused faces. These are all drip drip drips of information that will change market sentiment. 

Who here was running a course for a council yesterday? 'Fess up now!😄

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We all know its a bubble....and we all know that the more support it has received, it the worse the bust is going to be.

 

I refer to HPCers but I think most people in the UK know this subconsciously, the next few months7years will be a progress of this nagging doubt turning into a panic.

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Even if there is a little down turn, you can bet your life the MSM will be all over saying how bad it is for common folk and then a few months later it will be, wasn't that bad, now there are green shoots, on wards and up wards, everything tikitiboo in Englandvile, nothing to see here, move on.

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3 hours ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

On a course at the SE council where I work yesterday. 10 participants aged 30 to 50. Discussion moved on to Tory manifesto, pensioners selling houses to pay for care... Etc. Trainer says "and you've seen what is happening in London? House prices fallen, rents coming down, and thats going to ripple out to the rest of SE."

I smirked :) 

Nobody replied but there were lots of confused faces. These are all drip drip drips of information that will change market sentiment. 

You left a brother hanging. It's time you came out.

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People say that house prices are the popular subject of conversations at dinner parties etc but in my experience people avoid the subject...the reason for this is the tension the subject raises because of the yawning gulf between the haves and the have nots.  Bring up house prices in mixed company and you are guaranteed to spoil someone's mood...unless the room is entirely boomers loaded with property wealth and they can all pat each other on the back about how clever they are...

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11 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

You left a brother hanging. It's time you came out.

I'd actually commented on falling London rents to him one to one earlier on.... didn't expect him to agree or repeat it/mention HPC too. Even better he is a very well respected, and highly experienced programme manager. No ego or BS, just a really knowledgable straight up guy. People really take on board things he says.

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Plenty of bulls around here.  Alas.

I guess the south west will pretty much be last hit if there is a London-based crash though.  Also alas.  :(

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3 hours ago, EUBanana said:

Plenty of bulls around here.  Alas.

I guess the south west will pretty much be last hit if there is a London-based crash though.  Also alas.  :(

London will start leading the job loss exodus. Once the separation has been signed...

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I recently sold in East Sussex having purchased in 2011 after renting for about 8 years (house went from £250k after a refurb to £377k in 6 years).  Moved to Somerset where I am staying with friends while looking for another joint to buy.  Very low inventories locally but a considerable number of "price reduced" which seems to be a contradiction in the way things usually go when supply is short and demand is "apparently" high.  

Corrections usually occur every 7-10 years and we are now in the 8th or 9th year of the boom if we take 2008-09 as the low point.  Is the market going to correct again regardless of low inventories and if so, why?  Is it just a matter of "confidence" and uncertainty about the future given the Merkelisation of Europe, BREXIT, the liberal left's obsession with unseating the POTUS and the GE which everyone says is a dead cert for TM who will not cut immigration (the source of a great deal of demand pushed HPI).

Where DO we go from here?  

 

 

Edited by Realistbear
grammar

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5 hours ago, Realistbear said:

I recently sold in East Sussex having purchased in 2011 after renting for about 8 years (house went from £250k after a refurb to £377k in 6 years).  Moved to Somerset where I am staying with friends while looking for another joint to buy.  Very low inventories locally but a considerable number of "price reduced" which seems to be a contradiction in the way things usually go when supply is short and demand is "apparently" high.  

Corrections usually occur every 7-10 years and we are now in the 8th or 9th year of the boom if we take 2008-09 as the low point.  Is the market going to correct again regardless of low inventories and if so, why?  Is it just a matter of "confidence" and uncertainty about the future given the Merkelisation of Europe, BREXIT, the liberal left's obsession with unseating the POTUS and the GE which everyone says is a dead cert for TM who will not cut immigration (the source of a great deal of demand pushed HPI).

Where DO we go from here?  

 

 

Welcome back RB. Been way too long!

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On 5/19/2017 at 5:35 PM, Wayward said:

People say that house prices are the popular subject of conversations at dinner parties etc but in my experience people avoid the subject...the reason for this is the tension the subject raises because of the yawning gulf between the haves and the have nots.  Bring up house prices in mixed company and you are guaranteed to spoil someone's mood...unless the room is entirely boomers loaded with property wealth and they can all pat each other on the back about how clever they are...

This but 10 years ago it was the polar opposite ,this speaks volumes IMO 

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6 hours ago, Realistbear said:

I recently sold in East Sussex having purchased in 2011 after renting for about 8 years (house went from £250k after a refurb to £377k in 6 years).  Moved to Somerset where I am staying with friends while looking for another joint to buy.  Very low inventories locally but a considerable number of "price reduced" which seems to be a contradiction in the way things usually go when supply is short and demand is "apparently" high.  

Corrections usually occur every 7-10 years and we are now in the 8th or 9th year of the boom if we take 2008-09 as the low point.  Is the market going to correct again regardless of low inventories and if so, why?  Is it just a matter of "confidence" and uncertainty about the future given the Merkelisation of Europe, BREXIT, the liberal left's obsession with unseating the POTUS and the GE which everyone says is a dead cert for TM who will not cut immigration (the source of a great deal of demand pushed HPI).

Where DO we go from here?  

 

 

So your house made more than the average person takes home after tax every year for 6 year or the profit alone was approx 5 times times salary average salary, good of Gidiot and Dave to balance the economy.

Tells me you may have got out just in time.

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On 21/05/2017 at 2:58 PM, TulipsFromThreadneedle said:

So your house made more than the average person takes home after tax every year for 6 year or the profit alone was approx 5 times times salary average salary, good of Gidiot and Dave to balance the economy.

Tells me you may have got out just in time.

Hope so--my timing has been good the last 4 or so moves!

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On 21/05/2017 at 8:18 AM, Realistbear said:

Corrections usually occur every 7-10 years and we are now in the 8th or 9th year of the boom if we take 2008-09 as the low point.

Where DO we go from here?  

 

 

On 21/05/2017 at 8:18 AM, Realistbear said:

 

RB long time no see....

The last correction was 90 to 95......Since then its been up up up...08 was a plateau for this latest leg...

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2 minutes ago, Panda said:

 

RB long time no see....

The last correction was 90 to 95......

Try telling that to anyone above Watford.

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On 5/21/2017 at 8:18 AM, Realistbear said:

I recently sold in East Sussex having purchased in 2011 after renting for about 8 years (house went from £250k after a refurb to £377k in 6 years).  Moved to Somerset where I am staying with friends while looking for another joint to buy.  Very low inventories locally but a considerable number of "price reduced" which seems to be a contradiction in the way things usually go when supply is short and demand is "apparently" high.  

Corrections usually occur every 7-10 years and we are now in the 8th or 9th year of the boom if we take 2008-09 as the low point.  Is the market going to correct again regardless of low inventories and if so, why?  Is it just a matter of "confidence" and uncertainty about the future given the Merkelisation of Europe, BREXIT, the liberal left's obsession with unseating the POTUS and the GE which everyone says is a dead cert for TM who will not cut immigration (the source of a great deal of demand pushed HPI).

Where DO we go from here?  

Number 6 yes in Peacesville? 

Glad you're HPI profitz mad-gainz back happy.

Lack of buyers.  Real estate runs on money.  Sentiment can change and cascade from peaks imo.  Only takes a few buyers and sellers to transact at lower prices to bring down all values for the 'locked in mad-gainz'.  Inventory doesn't always have to stay low.

 

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On 20/05/2017 at 1:43 AM, maverick73 said:

London will start leading the job loss exodus. Once the separation has been signed...

Agreed. We haven't really seen anything yet in regards to actual jobs moving but I think once 19th June arrives, more companies than we can comprehend will announce major relocations to mainland Europe for avoidance of doubt if nothing else, not just banks. It's very easy for many due to already having established regional offices in other countries.

A slimmer than expected win for TM will further increase tensions in the U.K. as the GBP drops against  EUR due to the rather good economic figures coming out of the EU, pushing spending power even lower.

This is stagnation territory right now, looming election, huge uncertainty with the future of POTUS (impeachment = stock crash?), sub prime auto loan crisis kicking off over there too, and of course the impossible task of trying to calmly tame the insane Chinese bubble.

We're cresting the first (and thus biggest) roller coaster drop, it's  just the chain pulling us up has slowed to 0.1mph and occasional breakdowns may be expected.

Rest assured the ride will resume shortly. 

Edited by Barnsey

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15 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Agreed. We haven't really seen anything yet in regards to actual jobs moving but I think once 19th June arrives, more companies than we can comprehend will announce major relocations to mainland Europe for avoidance of doubt if nothing else, not just banks. It's very easy for many due to already having established regional offices in other countries.

A slimmer than expected win for TM will further increase tensions in the U.K. as the GBP drops against  EUR due to the rather good economic figures coming out of the EU, pushing spending power even lower.

This is stagnation territory right now, looming election, huge uncertainty with the future of POTUS (impeachment = stock crash?), sub prime auto loan crisis kicking off over there too, and of course the impossible task of trying to calmly tame the insane Chinese bubble.

We're cresting the first (and thus biggest) roller coaster drop, it's  just the chain pulling us up has slowed to 0.1mph and occasional breakdowns may be expected.

Rest assured the ride will resume shortly. 

and in times of uncertainty 'Cash is King'.... The funniest thing is all the banks are now lean and agile and all the other companies are bloated with leveraged credit B)

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15 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Agreed. We haven't really seen anything yet in regards to actual jobs moving but I think once 19th June arrives, more companies than we can comprehend will announce major relocations to mainland Europe for avoidance of doubt if nothing else, not just banks. It's very easy for many due to already having established regional offices in other countries.

 

Saw a friend of mine at the weekend who works for a large American bank in London, was hoping to get the lo-down on the BrExit carnage.

Nothing's changing, no job losses announce, no one being moved out, they are just as well paid as before, they've personally just sold an investment flat and they are borrowing big to buy a pwopatee in Surrey.  

I was most disappointed.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, maverick73 said:

and in times of uncertainty 'Cash is King'.... The funniest thing is all the banks are now lean and agile and all the other companies are bloated with leveraged credit B)

Times must be certain right now as debt is king. :lol::lol::lol::lol:

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