Sancho Panza

BoE investigates 'terrifying' rise in borrowing to fund new car purchases

570 posts in this topic

5 hours ago, Kipperwood said:

Hi I've been reading HPC with interest, just a quick question. As I understand it, when someone takes out a PCP agreement the garage sets a future minimum guarantee value, from which you can walk away etc etc. They know the current price of 2, 3 and 4 year old cars and can make a good estimate of what that might be.

But have they considered a large downwards price shift? With the government now seeming to increase the  tax on diesel cars, they are predicted to fall in value. Surely they could not see this fall coming and if loads of people walk away, the garages will be left with loads of cars that could be several thousands of pounds less than their original sums. 

As I also understand it there has been a huge increase in diesel cars bought in the last few years. When enough people turn away from Diesel fuel, will this be the biggest problem for PCP. The finance company's would be left with a huge stock that is now under valuation. Thanks 

 

There will be a margin built in to anticipate downward shifts, though of course that may not be enough if the drop is really big.

 

  As I noted in an earlier post, I think VW Finance might be about to take a large hit on stupidly cheap Golf GTD leases that they were offering just prior to 'Dieselgate'.  In that case, the people taking the leases are quids in vs if they had bought the car brand new and sold after 2 years.  Although as I have pointed out, the real issue here is that buying new and selling to buy another new car after 2-3 years is financially never a great idea and finance deals (PCH/PCP) are just another way to do this with the depreciation costs structured differently and vastly reduced upfront costs, thus dragging in many punters who would never do it 'the old fashioned way'.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

There will be a margin built in to anticipate downward shifts, though of course that may not be enough if the drop is really big.

  As I noted in an earlier post, I think VW Finance might be about to take a large hit on stupidly cheap Golf GTD leases that they were offering just prior to 'Dieselgate'.  In that case, the people taking the leases are quids in vs if they had bought the car brand new and sold after 2 years.  Although as I have pointed out, the real issue here is that buying new and selling to buy another new car after 2-3 years is financially never a great idea and finance deals (PCH/PCP) are just another way to do this with the depreciation costs structured differently and vastly reduced upfront costs, thus dragging in many punters who would never do it 'the old fashioned way'.

Maybe we need some HPCers to stand guard and barricade the dealerships... and break the grip of those being dragged in.

It's their own choice. :) It doesn't have to make financial-sense to anyone else.   :)   Other individuals don't need approval for their financial/car choices. :)

Self-validating Kia/Yaris drivers 

I could be a real tw@t about it, and have decided to be.  

>>> I like driving a high-end fancy modern Merc SUV.  It doesn't mean you are a total failure if you're driving a 5 year on Kia. <<<

Sure there are people who are really like that, but I defend their choice.  It's their money, or their debt and their choice.   

It's just the reverse of smug people who think the PHP/PCP are incapable victims, and that 'most people' have no idea what they are doing when buying PCH/PCP.

And people make their choices for many reasons, including safety, design looks.  It's just their choice.  Of course it costs more.  New car!!!  New car every 3 years or so when people do that.  It costs more.  And there is some margin in the finance deals for default risks, and toward other events such as some issue with vehicles causing significant deeper depreciation.   And sometimes it can be fair value, as in the example you give it is even possible that the Golf GTD lease takers.

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1 hour ago, Venger said:

Maybe we need some HPCers to stand guard and barricade the dealerships... and break the grip of those being dragged in.

It's their own choice. :) It doesn't have to make financial-sense to anyone else.   :)   Other individuals don't need approval for their financial/car choices. :)

Self-validating Kia/Yaris drivers 

I could be a real tw@t about it, and have decided to be.  

>>> I like driving a high-end fancy modern Merc SUV.  It doesn't mean you are a total failure if you're driving a 5 year on Kia. <<<

Sure there are people who are really like that, but I defend their choice.  It's their money, or their debt and their choice.   

It's just the reverse of smug people who think the PHP/PCP are incapable victims, and that 'most people' have no idea what they are doing when buying PCH/PCP.

And people make their choices for many reasons, including safety, design looks.  It's just their choice.  Of course it costs more.  New car!!!  New car every 3 years or so when people do that.  It costs more.  And there is some margin in the finance deals for default risks, and toward other events such as some issue with vehicles causing significant deeper depreciation.   And sometimes it can be fair value, as in the example you give it is even possible that the Golf GTD lease takers.

 

Jeez, you really have been triggered haven't you?

 

Look, no-one is getting at you personally when they point out that finance deals have essentially sucked in a lot of people into paying the costs of running an expensive new car which they wouldn't otherwise consider if they were faced with up-front costs of purchase first.

 

But judging by the amounts of new metal on the road and the generally crappy state of people's finances, it's pretty clear that the effect of cheap finance deals has been to entice people to spend more based on seemingly affordable monthly costs for something that is really costly.  A bit like how people get the latest iPhone every 2 years on a contract (and think that paying 45 quid a month for 24 months makes their iPhone affordable), or how people think that an overpriced shoebox is somehow affordable because they can secure a 2 year fixed interest rate mortgage that appears to make their massive commitment very affordable (on a monthly basis).

 

If you personally decide to spend lots of your money on switching new cars every couple of years, more power to you and you can choose to finance it whatever way you like.  But finance has undeniably moved the market towards people spending a lot more on cars in general (on the basis of expensive metal for monthly payments) and isn't sustainable in the long term.  Once interest rates rise, it'll kill the market dead and people exiting a finance deal and looking for a new one are going to get a nasty shock regarding what car they can afford to drive .. much the same shock as people on 2-year mortgage fixes are going to get.

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Does anyone have the figures on how many people actually pay off the deal at the end of three years rather than just hand it back /trade it in for a new one?

 

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2 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

Jeez, you really have been triggered haven't you?

Look, no-one is getting at you personally when they point out that finance deals have essentially sucked in a lot of people into paying the costs of running an expensive new car which they wouldn't otherwise consider if they were faced with up-front costs of purchase first.

But judging by the amounts of new metal on the road and the generally crappy state of people's finances, it's pretty clear that the effect of cheap finance deals has been to entice people to spend more based on seemingly affordable monthly costs for something that is really costly.  A bit like how people get the latest iPhone every 2 years on a contract (and think that paying 45 quid a month for 24 months makes their iPhone affordable), or how people think that an overpriced shoebox is somehow affordable because they can secure a 2 year fixed interest rate mortgage that appears to make their massive commitment very affordable (on a monthly basis).

It is the principle of the matter.  

Superior analysts casting those with car finance debt as having been duped/dragged in, and because buying a new car on finance is not usually as financially sensible as buying an older car, casting them as victims.  Self-validating.  And now I see you bring it back to your mortgage victims.... adults can see the asking prices (alone for some of us to gasp at in this market) and weigh up basic risks. :rolleyes:

4 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

...Although as I have pointed out, the real issue here is that buying new and selling to buy another new car after 2-3 years is financially never a great idea and finance deals (PCH/PCP) are just another way to do this with the depreciation costs structured differently and vastly reduced upfront costs, thus dragging in many punters who would never do it 'the old fashioned way'.

'Dragging'-in/Dragged-in (to debt) is the code-word of way too many HPCer 'superior analysts' and I have pushed back against it for some many years.

Including against those on the homeowner AND BTLer side who seemingly hope/position for savers to be wiped out, and ready to embrace a big happy bailout for those with mortgage debt, to protect the HPI+++++++.

hmmmmmm.......

On 11/2/2016 at 1:15 PM, Sour Mash said:

Yes, bail-ins are on the books from here on in.

In a way, they are actually fairer than full on state bailouts.  If you have stupidly entrusted your wealth to a bank (i.e. exchanged it for bank credit) without doing your homework, then you should bear some/all of the consequences of that bank going belly up.  The idea that bank savings should be sacrosanct is just an implicit guarantee for the state to support the banks bad business practices, no matter what happens.

 

Quote

Venger: (to Sour Mash) Alternatively there could be a big HPC.  No one dragged you into buying a house, and taking on mortgage.

 

On 12/16/2015 at 8:53 AM, Venger said:

Real estate runs on money. The BTLers are active market participants. No one dragged them into any bank and forced them to sign up to jumbo debt in unregulated market, to people-farm their fellow citizens.

More....

On 7/26/2015 at 5:09 AM, Venger said:

What might banks do in the future is the point. No one is dragging people to the banks and forcing them to take out mortgages, to buy at these prices.

Want house? Apply for mortgage, pass MMR checks, get low-rate happy mortgage, buy house. Almost that simple + other fees. There can be no complaint if, in a few years time, some young couple buy next door for 50% less than you paid.

 

On 1/16/2016 at 11:40 AM, Venger said:

Tell me when they're dragging the buyers to viewings and forcing them to buy..

 

On 5/24/2016 at 8:50 PM, Venger said:

Yay. Would be nice if so.

Have the EAs now finished dragging everyone that could be reached to viewings of super-expensive houses, and bankers finished dragging in people off the street to sign jumbo mortgage contracts for dream homes? hehe.

 

On 6/30/2015 at 9:05 AM, Venger said:

It's their life.. their blood sweat and tears. No one is dragging them into £350K mortgages. Their lives.

 

On 2/13/2017 at 10:54 AM, Venger said:

 

On 2/10/2017 at 3:53 PM, ccc said:

Venger I'm not saying people are innocent in any of this. They should do their own research. 

But there has been brainwashing on a massive scale in the UK over decades. 

Of course people should do their own research - but that's in theory

All I am saying is there are a few very simple explanations and examples you can give to people that really make them sit up and listen. 

:rolleyes:

There's loads of it on HPC.  People who believe adult owners/buyers are victims of a scam, and need 'the truth'.  Read it for years as prices up 30%-doubled.

ccc is no wacko but even he edgse into easy 'answer' - on this thread - of 'brainwashing on a massive scale' for the world around us.  

Adult market participants in market.  Own choices. Buyers at ever higher prices in many areas.  Some HPCers sat on £1m+ of equity.  People who have advanced quality of life in many ways with their choices in other markets, for us all.   If I had to give my view, it is those who claim 'brainwashing' are actually the 'brainwashed' giving such an easy answer for the world around us, and especially when all too often they are on the wrong side (financially) of this market.

What do I accuse them of doing?  Rubbishing other people and their choices, and acting superior.

Yes there is advertising and influencing all around us - but we all have our own minds make our own market choices.   No one is dragging anyone into buying £850K terraces in Cambridge.   I refuse to treat those who buy houses, or sat on £1m+ of equity in their own houses which they enjoy possession and living in (a few HPCers included) as brainwashed.

The 'alternative' some seem to want is back to grey-communism with their own stasi, to police 10ms of people to 'the truth' - what is a better alternative than what we have now, of free people allowed to make their own market choices?

Even extends to who people can date... if a relationship goes wrong (breakup), not personal decisions/individuals at fault in any way, or relationship they entered not strong enough to last, but "society propaganda".  Victimhood.  Cast away all responsibility.  Some  big bad at fault.  Begin bailout type thinking.ush back against it.

....It's an easy basic trap to fall into.   Seeing oneself as the superior analyst who can see everything wrong that 10s of millions of other people 'obviously can't see' and need 'the all-knowing saviour truth'.  It's a market out there, with 100s millions of different market view points, different VIs.

 

Edited by Venger

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14 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

Although as I have pointed out, the real issue here is that buying new and selling to buy another new car after 2-3 years is financially never a great idea and finance deals (PCH/PCP) are just another way to do this with the depreciation costs structured differently and vastly reduced upfront costs, thus dragging in many punters who would never do it 'the old fashioned way'.

 

12 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

Jeez, you really have been triggered haven't you?

Look, no-one is getting at you personally when they point out that finance deals have essentially sucked in a lot of people into paying the costs of running an expensive new car which they wouldn't otherwise consider if they were faced with up-front costs of purchase first.

But judging by the amounts of new metal on the road and the generally crappy state of people's finances, it's pretty clear that the effect of cheap finance deals has been to entice people to spend more based on seemingly affordable monthly costs for something that is really costly.  A bit like how people get the latest iPhone every 2 years on a contract (and think that paying 45 quid a month for 24 months makes their iPhone affordable), or how people think that an overpriced shoebox is somehow affordable because they can secure a 2 year fixed interest rate mortgage that appears to make their massive commitment very affordable (on a monthly basis).

 

--------------------

Tenants refusing to pay rent
Started by rollover, March 30

On 3/30/2017 at 2:59 PM, Sour Mash said:

Lots of people living 'flash' lifestyles do so by running up and dodging repayment of, large debts.

Seriously, you've got the question the mentality of someone constantly seeking to show off how flush they are on social media.  It doesn't exactly scream 'this person is genuinely hard working and wealthy as a result' to me .....   If I was a landlord, on top of any other references and metrics, I'd definitely consider gathering as much info as possible on potential tenants via social media before letting.

 

On 3/30/2017 at 3:22 PM, 24 year mortgage 8itch said:

Suppose you're a highly leveraged ******wit masquerading as a landlord and you wish to play God, using your over inflated sense of self worth, by selecting which particular serfs are blessed enough to live in a property owned by you, a leader amongst men...

Just who is going to pay your mortgage if no one is good enough for you?

 

On 4/2/2017 at 10:40 AM, Sour Mash said:

Get that chip off your shoulder - Seeking not to end up with a bunch of crap non-paying tenants is a perfectly sensible and reasonable course of action for someone looking to let out a property.  And offering housing in return for rent is an entirely reasonable thing to do, especially since social housing is so heavily oversubscribed and under-provisioned.

Or would you just prefer it if private rental wasn't a thing?  Presumably in your la-la world there would be an unlimited amount of social housing and properties could be purchased outright for a few tens of thousands?

Yes.  HPC.  BTLer unregulated lending HPC where there it's not any form of fair capitalism imo (MEW/IO BTL/ rent it out).  And not your saver bail-in dream.

On 4/2/2017 at 10:54 AM, 24 year mortgage 8itch said:

And you don't have a chip on YOUR shoulder about conspicuous consumption? Boot? Other foot? 

Where do tenants get to find out about their Landlord's liabilities, general financial situation and likelihood of getting things done when needed and not be sheared like a sheep whenever the landlord feels like it?

Can't help but find it somewhat amusing @Sour Mash (but with a sad sigh) that you are so against other people being capable of making their own adult car choices as individuals with their own minds, but seem perfectly okay with the BTLing and that sort of 'capitalism' which has gobbled up so many homes (and held them off them market) while being a big driver of HPI++++.

BTLing/landlording property to rent out an 'entirely reasonable thing to do for the rent'.... on mainly younger people (imo) who are priced out with less affordable homeownership options that generations before them, because of a huge BTLer double down.......  but a car on PHP/PCP and it's man the barricades, 'people don't know what they are doing',  'dragged into it' and 'suckered in'. :rolleyes:

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12 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

...A bit like how people get the latest iPhone every 2 years on a contract (and think that paying 45 quid a month for 24 months makes their iPhone affordable), or how people think that an overpriced shoebox is somehow affordable because they can secure a 2 year fixed interest rate mortgage that appears to make their massive commitment very affordable (on a monthly basis).

 

RUNXFOVG.jpg

 

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On 21/04/2017 at 1:23 AM, Ah-so said:

The reliability of German cars is a myth they still profit from without having to produce the goods. None of the reliability surveys have German manufacturers at the top. 

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/consumer-news/91220/the-most-and-least-reliable-car-manufacturers-2016

http://www.whatcar.com/news/skoda-tops-new-uk-vehicle-dependability-survey/

 

A friend of my Dad is a mechanic and describes German cars as working cars - you never stop working on them. Kept him in business.

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12 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

A friend of my Dad is a mechanic and describes German cars as working cars - you never stop working on them. Kept him in business.

Mark Twain noted that a man with a reputation as an early riser can sleep until noon.

Likewisr, German manufacturers have benefited from their reputation as producers of reliable motors while producing cars that slip down the reliability  tables and are expensive to repair. 

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Perhaps you can both inform the wider world about German cars, and everyone can choose what you think is best, else be uninformed. :lol:

So everyone to choose what.... Toyota?

Or if true, perhaps a valid reason for some to PHP/PCP for 3 years, rather than run older version.

And Sour Mash can scour the net with his landlording capitalist dreams, to decide who he would rent to, while dreaming of saver bail-in.

I've not had any real problems with German cars.   Audi and VW.

Owned one for 10+ years, and only had to change a coil-pack occasionally.  

Got an original VCDS cable (need a pic grr) to tell me which one was misfiring and other diagnostics + service reset.   https://www.gendan.co.uk/vcds-hex-usb-can.php

Brake-pedal-switch (no brakelights) went through a few updates and bought 2 at around £20 each.

Oh yeah there was once a replacement throttle body required for my brother's car (could tell it was that from a block read)... £40 on ebay vs £300 new, and probably our own fault for breaking the throttle-body (with internal sensor) for once absolutely ragging it on revs into the red*

*edit: not on public highways. (safety)

Edited by Venger

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4 minutes ago, Venger said:

Perhaps you can both inform the wider world about German cars, and everyone can choose what you think is best, else be uninformed. :lol:

So everyone to choose what.... Toyota?

Or if true, perhaps a valid reason for some to PHP/PCP for 3 years, rather than run older version.

And Sour Mash can scour the net with his landlording capitalist dreams, to decide who he would rent to, while dreaming of saver bail-in.

I've not had any real problems with German cars.   Audi and VW.

Owned one for 10+ years, and only had to change a coil-pack occasionally.  

Got an original VCDS cable (need a pic grr) to tell me which one was misfiring and other diagnostics + service reset.   https://www.gendan.co.uk/vcds-hex-usb-can.php

Brake-pedal-switch (no brakelights) went through a few updates and bought 2 at around £20 each.

Oh yeah there was once a replacement throttle body required for my brother's car (could tell it was that from a block read)... £40 on ebay vs £300 new, and probably our own fault for breaking the throttle-body (with internal sensor) for once absolutely ragging it on revs into the red*

*edit: not on public highways. (safety)

Irrespective of what Joe Public thinks the surveys posted by Ah - So suggest otherwise.

People are free to chose whatever they want. The point is though that German reliability does not always stack up when compared against other countries vehicle marques.

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41 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

A friend of my Dad is a mechanic and describes German cars as working cars - you never stop working on them. Kept him in business.

I think the 'premium' brands manage to paint running and servicing costs as part of the mystique of keeping a premium machine running optimally. As if they are so special that without the constant and gentle fondling of a 150 quid an hour mechanic the car would simply wither away and die.

Japanese cars are different but i saw the same mentailty in a company director who had bought a impreza wrx sti. Told everyone how special the car was that it needed 3 services by 10k miles, including being taken back at 1k to check it was 'settling in properly'.

Subsequent owners buy the cachet but may not feel the same about servicing costs etc. My sister in law has this problem...shes just remortgaged as her 12 yo 3 series threw a £3k Garage bill. No idea whether shes repairing the old one (a poverty 320d) or buying another.

Im a big fan of the smoker barges 1-5k thread on pistonheads. Loads of great 30-100k cars being discussed that can mow be had for 'pennies'. But. Some of the ownership/cost experiences shared on the forum are eye watering!

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9 minutes ago, Venger said:

Perhaps you can both inform the wider world about German cars, and everyone can choose what you think is best, else be uninformed. :lol:

So everyone to choose what.... Toyota?

Or if true, perhaps a valid reason for some to PHP/PCP for 3 years, rather than run older version.

And Sour Mash can scour the net with his landlording capitalist dreams, to decide who he would rent to, while dreaming of saver bail-in.

I've not had any real problems with German cars.   Audi and VW.

Owned one for 10+ years, and only had to change a coil-pack occasionally.  

Got an original VCDS cable (need a pic grr) to tell me which one was misfiring and other diagnostics + service reset.   https://www.gendan.co.uk/vcds-hex-usb-can.php

Brake-pedal-switch (no brakelights) went through a few updates and bought 2 at around £20 each.

Oh yeah there was once a replacement throttle body required for my brother's car (could tell it was that from a block read)... £40 on ebay vs £300 new, and probably our own fault for breaking the throttle-body (with internal sensor) for once absolutely ragging it on revs into the red*

*edit: not on public highways. (safety)

I owned a Toyota Avensis for 4 years which I sold to my Dad (3 years) who sold it to my Brother (2 Years)

9 years ownership - servicing, new tyres and a battery and not a single thing go wrong.

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4 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

I owned a Toyota Avensis for 4 years which I sold to my Dad (3 years) who sold it to my Brother (2 Years)

9 years ownership - servicing, new tyres and a battery and not a single thing go wrong.

I wouldn't touch a Toyota, too unreliable :D

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1 minute ago, Kurt Barlow said:

Irrespective of what Joe Public thinks the surveys posted by Ah - So suggest otherwise.

People are free to chose whatever they want. The point is though that German reliability does not always stack up when compared against other countries vehicle marques.

And surveys and reviews are open to everyone else with internet connection who bothers to do any research before making a major car buying decision.

And I respect their choices.

Individuals have their minds.  They can test drive.  They can do their own research.  

It's their money/their debt obligation, and with cars, finance companies take some risk as well.  And there actually is another option, with buying an older car, with a bit of saving and no debt at all, but possibly higher maintenance costs.

3 minutes ago, Kurt Barlow said:

I owned a Toyota Avensis for 4 years which I sold to my Dad (3 years) who sold it to my Brother (2 Years)

9 years ownership - servicing, new tyres and a battery and not a single thing go wrong.

Way back I was warm on the Toyota Avensis for quite some time, but made a different choice.

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1 hour ago, regprentice said:

I think the 'premium' brands manage to paint running and servicing costs as part of the mystique of keeping a premium machine running optimally. As if they are so special that without the constant and gentle fondling of a 150 quid an hour mechanic the car would simply wither away and die.

Japanese cars are different but i saw the same mentailty in a company director who had bought a impreza wrx sti. Told everyone how special the car was that it needed 3 services by 10k miles, including being taken back at 1k to check it was 'settling in properly'.

Subsequent owners buy the cachet but may not feel the same about servicing costs etc. My sister in law has this problem...shes just remortgaged as her 12 yo 3 series threw a £3k Garage bill. No idea whether shes repairing the old one (a poverty 320d) or buying another.

Im a big fan of the smoker barges 1-5k thread on pistonheads. Loads of great 30-100k cars being discussed that can mow be had for 'pennies'. But. Some of the ownership/cost experiences shared on the forum are eye watering!

On the smoker barges point - I was really tempted to buy a Phaeton, until I found out that lightbulbs are main dealer job. Mate of mine bought a second hand Aston Martin, cost him a 5 figure sum in the first year.

If you can't afford to buy it first hand, you can't afford to run it second hand.

Edited by frozen_out

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Spoke to a friend in the motor trade, he's just renewed his 3 yr vw polo lease for his vat registered biz.

The base model sells outright for £12k (10k - vat ) 

http://www.volkswagen.co.uk/new/polo-gp/home 

He said to VW he wanted the same deal as before. £125 a month inc vat , 8k miles a yr 

Downpayment was £805 inc vat so £670.83 plus vat, he can claim all the vat back including on the payments

 

http://www.theaa.com/car-buying/depreciation

Quote

. The average new car will have a residual value of around 40% of its new price after three years (assuming 10,000 miles/year) or in other words will have lost around 60% of its value at an average of 20% per year.

So car has lost £7.2 k of value after 3 yrs . Value £4.8k 

 

vw have got back

 

3 yrs lease                               £3600 (vat removed)

Deposit                                     £  805

Total                                          £4405

Minus Depreciation loss (60%) £6000 

                       loss                    -£1595

 

so what sort of profit margin are vw making to off set that loss ?

 

 

 

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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On 20/04/2017 at 6:23 PM, Ah-so said:

The reliability of German cars is a myth they still profit from without having to produce the goods. None of the reliability surveys have German manufacturers at the top. 

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/consumer-news/91220/the-most-and-least-reliable-car-manufacturers-2016

http://www.whatcar.com/news/skoda-tops-new-uk-vehicle-dependability-survey/

 

More Manufacturer ratings here http://www.reliabilityindex.com/manufacturer

Top 100 cars with average repair costs http://www.reliabilityindex.com/top-100

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1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

More Manufacturer ratings here http://www.reliabilityindex.com/manufacturer

Top 100 cars with average repair costs http://www.reliabilityindex.com/top-100

Mercedes, BMW and Audi now have terrible reliability ratings, but they continue to dine out on a reputation built decades ago.

I am particularly pleased that Land Rover is even worse, however - about the least reliable car going.

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I don't care if people do stupid things with their money, i don't like it when the media perpetuate the myth.

The bankers rip us of for loans and then use it to buy prestige German cars.

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So don't buy if you're going off ratings alone.  

Not everyone else is uninformed or a victim if they choose differently. :)

It's all choice.

Or lease one and enjoy new car warranty.

Some HPCers who believe themselves to be informed may actually be the brainwashed on some matters that they see 'Joe Public' as being.  And if something doesn't make same level of financial-sense to you as it does to someone else, that's just a market.  If someone gets it wrong, they have to pay for it.  In the meantime many people with higher end cars enjoying something for their money.

8 hours ago, frozen_out said:

On the smoker barges point - I was really tempted to buy a Phaeton, until I found out that lightbulbs are main dealer job. Mate of mine bought a second hand Aston Martin, cost him a 5 figure sum in the first year.

If you can't afford to buy it first hand, you can't afford to run it second hand.

Are you sure that is true?   vwvortex have some people lapping up and repeating that story, and others showing how to do it, although there are certainly more complications and higher with cars such as a Phaeton.   Bulb price and adjustment and so on. 

Thought the same headlight bulb access thing about my old VAG car  (so many people repeating that story) but it can be accessed from engine bay.  I can't do it but other people can... small hands and a knack for it help.

There was also a lot of fear nonsense (imo) on internet car forums, and then by the UK autotrade itself, in mid 2000s about changing the Audi/VW cambelt (and all the pulleys and rollers) every 4 years, and of course, the waterpump too, while down there (which does make some sense if doing the works).   And they all thought themselves super informed.  Glad I didn't follow their advice else been down £800 in parts and labour on unnecessary changes. (I can't and wouldn't want to try to attempt to change a cambelt).

As far as I am concerned there was a problem with one particular cambelt design on 1 newer VAG model of a specific engine code which did have a lot of slippage/breaking problems, and then it was all 'played upon' for the entire range (imo).   And perhaps a nice £Ms earner for many involved in UK VAG car maintenance (imo).  

Anyway the cambelt on my old German car went 10+ years, although I did have to get it changed eventually, a 2 years before selling it.   And the guy who bought was happy.  I acquired a German Service manual (the factory official one... elsawin thing) and they told a very different cambelt story for engine code on my model to what UK franchise department were saying... who only sell the cars, maintain, service and repair them.   Just had to do a visual inspection with no age recommendation replacement.   (Check for cracks, cross sectional breaks, layer separation, fraying cord strands, surface cracks of synthetic coating).   There were some cracks and some cord frays but still looked super strong so I left it for 10+ years until there was a slight issue (I could hear it).  One of the plastic pulleys or rollers had cracked.  No immediate risk but got it done a few weeks after noticing at an indy specialist in North Manchester.

Was influenced to not worry about 4 year change by a poster on Honest John forums, and his early 2000s to mid 2000s posts on the matter.   An old retired GP, and clever car tinkerer.  Although we all have to make choices and weigh up risks.  

 

John F: Chewer1, you remind me of our old Passat GL 2.0 - the pulley whined so I replaced it easily [it's at the top of the engine] at around 130,000 - belt looked ok so left it - still going strong at 240,000+ when we traded it in.....I'm astonished to learn that inferior stuff is being fitted to more modern cars.

From the posts on this site it also seems as though modern diesels are no longer good for high mileages [200K + in my book] without repairs to their sophisticated injection or turbo bits. Perhaps lean-burn non-turbo petrol is the best bet for longevity? Looking forward to indefinite Focus 1.6 ownership - see how long the cambelt lasts! And my 2.8A6 cambelt still looks as good as new at 95,000....

Is it all ploy to fleece the punter in the long run?

Mine whined, didn't get as far as screeching, at about 130,000. [same engine as yours, chewer1]
Changed pulley, [easy - stiff, but not seized] left the belt as looked perfect [too difficult]. Sold car at 242,000 with original belt.

If it works, don't mend it.

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?t=37741&v=f

--

John F: Theory is all very well, but if it looks OK it probably is OK. My wife's Passat has done 210,000 miles - I caught the tension pulley whining stiffly at 160,000 and changed it, but the belt was perfectly OK so I left it alone.

Belts usually only break because they are fried by the seized pulleys they drive, usually tension pulleys or,[in the case of my old Audi 100], a water pump. I suppose starting high compression engines with lots of valves is a bit of a strain, but for basic engines like the above I see no reason why the original belt should not last the life of the engine.

The worst thing an unscrupulous garage can do is to change a belt without at least changing the tension pulley. And if I ever decided to change my Audi belt [144,000 - no problems] - I would change the water pump as well.

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?v=e&t=7920&m=79932

--

John F: Not starship mileage, but my old '90 Audi 100 [5cyl 2.0] lasted 145,000 with no major probs. Take the top cover off and inspect it occasionallly. Give it a squirt of belt dressing every 20,000 or so. It drives the water pump as well, which is probably more likely to fail first.  My old '83 Passat 5cyl GL used the same reliable engine - I only troubled to change the cambelt when the water pump failed at 130,000 or so.

--

John F: Oil, filters and similar plugs all get changed at roughly the same intervals, give or take a few K miles. Why is there no consistency for cambelts? Seems as though it can be anything from 40,000 to your 115,000. How do the manufacturers arrive at their decision?

There needs to be some longevity research on this topic - it is clearly a sea of ignorance and dogma at present. One thing is for sure; the motor industry wants us to spend as much as possible!   [P.S. '94 Passat cambelt 227,000 still going strong - cost of changing more than car is worth!]

==

John F:  I still believe that inspection is good enough, and keep an ear out for bearing squeal - if you really want to change something at 100,000, change the pulley.

If it works, don't mend it!

--

John F:  I'd inspect it. Give it a squirt of belt dressing. Mine looks strong enough to drive a motorbike. A flimsier one on my Passat lasted 240,000. And 130,000 on a previous Audi. And over 100,000 on my son's Pug 309 - needed tensioning slightly.

I've read lots of stories of cambelts 'failing' a few thousand miles after they've been changed. I've read only one story about Ford's 10yr 100,000 cambelt engines failing yet by now there must be zillions of them about run by people who make an active or passive decision to leave them alone.

Remember, the motor service trade, like any other service and repair business, exists to turn a profit by advising as much work to be done as the client will accept.

If it works, don't mend it.

--

John F: Nice to see this 2yr old thread still alive - thanks for all your opinions!

jc2 seems to have the right idea - there must now be loads of Zetecs around with six figure mileages but I have yet to hear of cambelt probs......but continually read about belts failing shortly after being replaced.  Doing few miles these days, only 40K now so just run in. Looking forward to the belt lasting as long as the engine..which is what they are designed to do.

If it works, don't mend it!

--

John F: Glad to see the cambelt debate going strong. I've had VWs/Audi and never change them, just inspect. If it works, don't mend it.

Passat GL5 changed at 135,000 when water pump failed - went on to 192K when I sold it.

Audi 100 2.0 [samish engine] 138,000 - looks ok.

Passat 2.0GL 192,000, curious whine at 160,000 traced with my stethoscope to tension pulley about to seize - pulley replaced, belt left in situ.

I believe belts only fail if they are allowed to get too loose or, more often, a tension pulley seizes and friction-fries it. There is virtually no load once the head gear has loosened up so they should last for ever.

Beware exchanging the original quality product at 60,000 with a duff cheap belt which then comes apart at 85,000.

--

John F: V interesting replies/comments - I shall now worry until I sell my cars! Should these messages be categorized as originating from professional mechanics or consumers? Clearly it is in the formers' best interests to advise frequent replacement!

'poking at an old wound' is a false analogy [I'm a GP]

'don't re-tension old belts' - I have just bought my son a Peugeot 309 from the auction for the grand sum of £285 - allegedly 99,000, cambelt slightly loose so I tightened it [don't know if original and don't care] - it looks ok.

It's obviously a risk but if you pick engines with a good reputation it's worth a bit of fun taking it - and anyway I enjoy tinkering. Just as it is rarely worth repairing cameras or electronic goods, perhaps we are now in the age of disposable cars - at least as far as cheap second-hand ones are concerned.

Edited by Venger

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10 minutes ago, frederico said:

I don't care if people do stupid things with their money, i don't like it when the media perpetuate the myth.

The bankers rip us of for loans and then use it to buy prestige German cars.

No one is dragging anyone in to buy.

It's a choice.

And no way do I want to be ruled by the ego-control-squad.  Many of them the actual brainwashed ones, a lot dumber than those they call the victims.

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57 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

Mercedes, BMW and Audi now have terrible reliability ratings, but they continue to dine out on a reputation built decades ago.

I am particularly pleased that Land Rover is even worse, however - about the least reliable car going.

Not only cars.....for example, hotpoint, indisit, whirlpool used to be long lasting and reliable, how things have changed, you just can no longer rely on the brand names....past performance does not guarantee future high expectations or satisfaction.....can very often end up very disappointed.....why would anyone buy it again, why would anyone recommend again....word of mouth and research speaks louder than any bias ad.;)

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3 minutes ago, winkie said:

Not only cars.....for example, hotpoint, indisit, whirlpool used to be long lasting and reliable, how things have changed, you just can no longer rely on the brand names....past performance does not guarantee future high expectations or satisfaction.....can very often end up very disappointed.....why would anyone buy it again, why would anyone recommend again....word of mouth and research speaks louder than any bias ad.;)

So what are you going to do?

You have to live!   

There are risks in the world. 

Advertising is allowed, and sometimes the advertisers have a great product to go with their advertising.

I don't believe a lot of the posts here about 'German' cars.  Looks like self-validation to me, to make themselves feel better about their own personal choices.  And clonking huge egos about people being dragged-in and suckered-in to buying new cars.  (WTF!)   Barricades out.  Protect the innocents.

Some people believe it's a good idea to run a washing machine on very hot wash at least once a month.  To get rid of all the strong soap powder that can collect and build up around internal parts.     It's continual low-temperature 'eco' washing which is a killer for washing machines imo.   The residue from the power sticks and grimes up and corrodes internal parts such as the spindles.  That's my own 'informed' view.  May be mistaken but it's what I would do, together with believing the guy from washerforums about entry level Miele washing machine being so much better than top of the range from other manufacturers.  Well I would have to do further research for time has past, but I don't need to really worry about that until I'm a homeowner.   And it's all a risk.

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