Patient London FTB Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conquistador Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Waiting for a change in the weather, waiting for a shift in the air. Could we get there together... ever? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longtermrenter Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 HPS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ah-so Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 That's the sort of headline we need to see more of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Good to see they are blaming high prices. I am worried though that they are going to be bringing in some sweetners in the budget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 Cue some pressure on the govt on stamp duty, which would be the likeliest move from Hammond IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, satch said: Just a few slow sales that's all, nothing to worry about ..... prices are holding up, move along, move along, nothing to see here .............. it's cos of Brexit and Donald Trump. He's had plenty of experience of property crashes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Patient London FTB said: Cue some pressure on the govt on stamp duty, which would be the likeliest move from Hammond IMO Needs to protect his own and his mates property portfolios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said: Cue some pressure on the govt on stamp duty, which would be the likeliest move from Hammond IMO Good, stamp duty is a terrible tax. It's paying the government for the freedom to move house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 minute ago, satch said: But SDLT generates tax revenue so much better to have some new HtB scheme so the tax can be collected. How about some magic 'existing home owners cash unlocking scheme' to recycle the wealth (and generate tax revenue) via FTB deposits for their kids. London's at the heart of the slowdown and HTB hasn't been able to boost FTB numbers in the capital. Prices are too much of a stretch. What they need to do is remove some of the stamp duty obstacle to moving around on the higher rungs, without diluting the BTL crackdown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 London hpi needs to be constrained. If they won't raise rates,then stamp needs to stay high until prices fall. Constraining London hpi will constrain hpi everywhere with 2hrs commute of London. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, GreenDevil said: London hpi needs to be constrained. If they won't raise rates,then stamp needs to stay high until prices fall. Constraining London hpi will constrain hpi everywhere with 2hrs commute of London. Â Stamp duty kills transactions. Transactions are necessary for price discovery. The more liquid the housing market is the faster it will find its true level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shrink Proof Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said: Cue some pressure on the govt on stamp duty, which would be the likeliest move from Hammond IMO Quite possibly, but whatever the govt does will take some time and won't make much difference to the immediate psychological impact of a front page headline. Which is good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Patient London FTB said: The front page is brilliant...wonder if pages 6 /7 is a plea to prop it all up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mathschoc Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 "This has left many owners trapped in homes they would rather leave" Boohoo, a lot more of this to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Dorkins said: Stamp duty kills transactions. Transactions are necessary for price discovery. The more liquid the housing market is the faster it will find its true level. Agree. The top end of the market is ready to fall but stamp duty is constraining volumes. Also, the cost of moving is stopping people climbing the ladder which is keeping FTB prices high. A lot of people remortgaging to improve their current houses rather than move. The interesting thing is they're boosting housing supply (yes, by a small amount, but better than nothing) by doing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, GreenDevil said: London hpi needs to be constrained. If they won't raise rates,then stamp needs to stay high until prices fall. Constraining London hpi will constrain hpi everywhere with 2hrs commute of London. Â If there's no transactions then prices will fall.No need for high IR's or stamp duty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said: Agree. The top end of the market is ready to fall but stamp duty is constraining volumes. Also, the cost of moving is stopping people climbing the ladder which is keeping FTB prices high. A lot of people remortgaging to improve their current houses rather than move. The interesting thing is they're boosting housing supply (yes, by a small amount, but better than nothing) by doing that. Top end of the market in Londinium is falling.It's not ready to fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Dorkins said: Stamp duty kills transactions. Transactions are necessary for price discovery. The more liquid the housing market is the faster it will find its true level. A lot of things kill transactions but you're dead right on them being necessary for price discovery. Interesting that they predict transactions down 11% nationally,i suspect that will be far worse in the South than the North Edited February 17, 2017 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 All the following can be true:Â 1) HPI is constrained by stamp duty being kept high 2) The government is likely to look at stamp duty to bring the market back to life and optimise tax revenues 3) London falls regardless of stamp duty being lowered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 49 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said: Also, the cost of moving is stopping people climbing the ladder which is keeping FTB prices high. There's no such thing as an "FTB price", there are just individual properties which each have a price. In the past FTBs supposedly entered the market by buying a relatively cheap property (though plenty of people FTB'd 3 bed semis) but there's no law that says that has to happen. I strongly suspect that half a generation of people who bet everything (5x joint 35 year mortgage) on some low quality FTB property will end up stuck there for decades and that other people will FTB into the higher quality "second step" properties that they can't afford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Dorkins said: Stamp duty kills transactions. Transactions are necessary for price discovery. The more liquid the housing market is the faster it will find its true level. Disagree. The lack of transactions is due to high prices as per article. Not due to stamp duty (PCL russian oligarch excepted). No activity means prices fall to find a buyer whatever the SDLT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Hammond will have thought of something by now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 minute ago, shindigger said: Hammond will have thought of something by now. How much money Castlemead Homes has lost this week? http://www.castlemead-ltd.co.uk/homes-current-developments/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 minute ago, zugzwang said: How much money Castlemead Homes has lost this week? http://www.castlemead-ltd.co.uk/homes-current-developments/ Is that his company? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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