crashmonitor

Halifax +1.7% MOM +6.5% YOY

137 posts in this topic

17 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Billion. It's just a word. Hear it enough times and you learn to ignore it.

Desensitization. Like the fact that I would probably resign to accepting a 2013 house prices as good value if I could get it when at that time I thought it was obscene.

That's why it's best to ignore it now.

a.) There's nothing you can do.

b.) it won't stop until they break it.

Edited by Nickos

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27 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Billion. It's just a word. Hear it enough times and you learn to ignore it.

Desensitization. Like the fact that I would probably resign to accepting a 2013 house prices as good value if I could get it when at that time I thought it was obscene.

I know what you mean.  We didnt buy between 2009-2012 because people still wanted their 2007 asking prices.  No one would accept the market had crash and they all sat for 5 years waiting.  The Osborne/Carney/Cameron came up with HTB/FLS now 2007 prices ( which collapsed the banking system ) look reasonable, when in reality they are anything but.

Raise IRs to 5% house prices would be 40% of 2007 levels now.

The trouble is, the crooks in charge wont raise IRs to 5% without the currency collapsing.

Brown was either a crook or an idiot, for me Osborne new what the problems were and did what he did, that make him a crook in my book.

Now we have a real problem, the boomers want their 2007+50% prices now, are you going to pay them ?  

F**k that, I'll retire on my own money thanks.

So there really is no choice, there was no point buying a house at 2007 prices and their certainly aint any point in buying into a bubble when prices are 2007++.

Feet up, wait for the collapse, protect yourself as best you can.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I know what you mean.  We didnt buy between 2009-2012 because people still wanted their 2007 asking prices.  No one would accept the market had crash and they all sat for 5 years waiting.  The Osborne/Carney/Cameron came up with HTB/FLS now 2007 prices ( which collapsed the banking system ) look reasonable, when in reality they are anything but.

Raise IRs to 5% house prices would be 40% of 2007 levels now.

The trouble is, the crooks in charge wont raise IRs to 5% without the currency collapsing.

Brown was either a crook or an idiot, for me Osborne new what the problems were and did what he did, that make him a crook in my book.

Now we have a real problem, the boomers want their 2007+50% prices now, are you going to pay them ?  

F**k that, I'll retire on my own money thanks.

So there really is no choice, there was no point buying a house at 2007 prices and their certainly aint any point in buying into a bubble when prices are 2007++.

Feet up, wait for the collapse, protect yourself as best you can.

Can't help wondering if TFS was something Carney and Osborne had planned together before Brexit. Sajid Javid is about to publish the Housing White Paper postponed from last year. The ludicrous 'Garden Village' proposals have already been leaked to general derision, as has the made-in-China prefab gimmick. Tiny housing sites with 1-10 dwellings are much less profitable to develop per sq m. than large sites. A general subsidy, call it a Scheme if you like, for the building industry and its financiers would push things along nicely.

 

 

Edited by zugzwang

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A new asking price index from home.co.uk

http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_JAN17.pdf

Quote

‘What goes up must come down’ or so the saying goes. Ultra-low interest rates have served to add around another 50% to the home values in London and adjacent regions over the last five years or so. Mortgage interest rates can’t really go down any further from their record lows so is a painful correction in house prices imminent? The UK property market remains highly diverse from region to region. The North East, for example, has yet to experience any sort of meaningful recovery. Prices there have hardly budged over the last five years, increasing just 2.5%. Bearing that in mind, a ‘correction’ looks rather unlikely. However, any region where prices rose too high too quickly runs the risk of price deflation. London is already suffering this fate and the South East and later the East of England look set to follow.

That said, 2017 is likely to be a mixed picture, with the East and West Midlands, who are still both in the growth phase, adding positive values to the national average. However, their gains are unlikely to change the overall direction of the price growth curve.

They got a "better" view of 2017 than Halifax

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3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/20/qe-disappears-due-choppy-waters/

 

"Here in the UK, Mark Carney’s blast of quantitative easing after the Brexit referendum is already looking like a mistake that will have to be unwound. Even in Japan, the central bank is starting to tweak its plans. "

 

They saw mistake...I say crime.

 

 

I always thought this was your graph. Knight Frank have stole it if so...

 

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On 1/10/2017 at 1:01 AM, Venger said:

If it isn't how "HPC can't happen because of VI"  it is 'HPCers preying on misery and innocents'.

Sheesh.

Lot to be excited about, and agree with SilverSurfer on this thread - now that he has come back hard-HPC minded, and fun again, after political turn of Section24

 

On 1/9/2017 at 11:16 PM, Grumpysod said:

The one big difference today 2017 and several years ago was that if the housing speculative gamble had collapsed then it would have been a case to the victor the spoils as the losers fight to survive with their crippling debts. Sadly if the housing market collapsed in the next few years or probably longer the way things are going, those that did gamble will probably be seen as blameless and will be on the same level playing field as most of us.

Enjoy your life buddy, life is too short.

Doom!  They will be 'blameless' they way you go on about 'innocence' of homeowners time over - there is no such thing, despite yours and other peoples claims about that for so many years.   And there are so few overleveraged borrowers from the young.  Some NE doesn't mean total doom.  

There's £multi-trillions of older homeowner equity, BTLer equity (for the moment), bomad powered buyers, and just a few younger buyers with smaller mortgages at lower end.  And everyone has chosen their market position out (except renters who have often had choice made for them by BTL outbidders).  Then there are ever more young renter-savers, carrying all the HPIers. 

On 1/10/2017 at 8:31 AM, Nickos said:

Cheers, no point wasting it waiting around for what may or may not happen ;)

Doom!

On 1/10/2017 at 8:54 AM, Gush said:

This forum as far as I see no poster insists on other poster to wait. They collect data and turn to information to the best of their knowledge. Based on it each then either end up concluding price correction will or will not happen. You have concluded it will not happen but post it as may or may not happen.

Exactly!  Some have taken their positions (including moving away) but seem to enjoy bringing further doubt, on what may-or-may happen.... "you may be waiting 30 years" (for any house price rebalance in HPI mad areas).

16 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

There is no hope through external events, there will always be BOE QE to bail out existing mortgagees.

Doom!

14 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

The only hope is an unavoidable systemic (dominoes falling) economic crash that will sweep the world.  I believe that is the only thing to properly correct house prices.  A controlled correction will be in the VI's interests - take off 10 or 15% of prices, call it The Great House Crash of 2017 (or whenever), then after that minor retracement, business as usual.  Sell the "crash" as showing how healthy the housing market is, and how there was never any fixing going on.  That will create a new generation of greater fools. So, you're going to have to hope for economic armageddon.

Doom!  S24, SDLT Surcharge, PRA, MMR, ECMD, end HTB2, BTLers squealing...  so minor HPC (cause in many areas 10%-15% is nothing I agree) but then they PTB re-engineer flood of money back for forever HPI.   (I accept this has been done once before - especially with HTB encouraging not so many younger buyers - when looked at overall) into £190K average HTB mortgage - but as a signal to speculators and those who can most shoulder a future HPC, into doubling down and position to feast on Generation Rent... greed that can shoulder HPC).

8 hours ago, Grumpysod said:

I read your post and the handful after you and it's quite clear to me that HPC is no longer the site where everyone is coming to read about the inevitable property price crash that is coming, yet it is getting decent traffic I believe, why?

A lot of people are coming here hoping to read that one post that gives them hope, that something is about to happen, but so many people think this is just going to drag on year after year regardless. Like I said there is something seriously seriously wrong in the UK housing market, you have 60 year old speculative baby boomers living in 4 or 5 bedroom family homes while an over worked younger generation are forced to bring up families in sardine cans.

Doom!  Your own worldview and one which you continually push.  You seem intent on post-after-post how out HPC can't happen (VI), and seemingly can't be convinced by all the great technical posts and some very interesting facts such as S24.   When you do open your mind about HPC happening, it's then all about 'homeowner innocents' and 'misery'.  

You have only been STR for the equivalent of 5 minutes, after decades of homeownership since the early 90s, with an upsize in there during major HPC1 (the innocents... you could have remained where you were and given your money away to those who met changed financial circumstances.).

 

I am totally optimistic and full of HPC hope (as a great thing - the 'innocence' doesn't fun one way for 10+ years solely for homeowners and market where so many sat on fortunes of HPI mad-gainz).  Market is set to turn, despite these Halifax figures - so going to get some more savings together to be in position to buy, than be doomed out by maximum moaners, doomers and doubters. 

 

Quote

..with all due respect, what do you expect this forum’s users to do? Just stop talking about it and go cry in their soup? I get that your conclusion, and a reasonable one, is that the system is quite rigged against all but the deep pocketed and those connected to the central planning/government types will win while the rest lost. But it is in the discussion of it that people become educated about the exact levers (legislation, tax code, demographic change, whatever) that are directly related to the distortion in prices and markets. If those that are outraged just all turn into a one-tune chorus of “it’s all rigged and we’ve lost” then they risk being taken as conspiracy theorists and sore losers. Credibility is lost. One has to choose a theme to battle upon…and have some ******ing faith that ultimately we still live in a democracy. Talk, educate, know the issues–a little feeling sorry for yourself is natural, but taking it to the point where you consider all action, including talking, futile, is, well, just pathetic, isn’t it?

 

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1 hour ago, ASBEAR said:

A new asking price index from home.co.uk

http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_JAN17.pdf

They got a "better" view of 2017 than Halifax

They've not seen the absurd unsustainable prices that were being paid in the east/west mids and which now look to had hit a brick wall.  Time will tell of course

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1 hour ago, Lavalas said:

I always thought this was your graph. Knight Frank have stole it if so...

 

Same idea I guess and poo poos the statment that the 3% stamp duty has collapsed volumes.

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20 hours ago, btd1981 said:

I love your analogy. I've had similar thoughts and this is a really nice way of describing it. The secondary, tertiary skips are presumably people priced out of their local markets in the main towns. You say sales volumes have fallen in Barth, but will prices?

Thank you. I'd say it's anyone looking to benefit from the price differential, so both the priced out, and the downgraders.

Whether prices will fall is obviously a tricky question. I spent over an hour writing a reply to answer that, then decided to summarise it as: I don't know, maybe, probably, yes but then again perhaps not!

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17 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/20/qe-disappears-due-choppy-waters/

 

"Here in the UK, Mark Carney’s blast of quantitative easing after the Brexit referendum is already looking like a mistake that will have to be unwound. Even in Japan, the central bank is starting to tweak its plans. "

They saw mistake...I say crime.

 

Which particular law do you think has been broken?

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14 hours ago, Lavalas said:

I always thought this was your graph. Knight Frank have stole it if so...

 

I find it interesting how little time each minister stays in charge.  It's clearly not in their interest to actually develop a long-term policy.

With a 1-2 year average term, the only policy seems to be "avoid blame, get another job asap".

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