2017 predictions

[crouch]

Interest rates on 31 December 2017 - 0.0%

Recession by the end of 2017.

House price stagnation to slight falls.

Political turmoil in the EU.

[oracle]

ok my 2p worth.

1)re-iterate last years prediction of iran v saudi+ turkey (with various proxies)etc- I did call this sort of right as it's now just warming up as of the latter part of this year.

2)RMT call general strike over government plans to get rid of all 19th century semaphore signals/signal boxes and replace them with lights+ remote control centres(actually some if this is being built as we speak).Strike is a failure as general public question the usefulness of such antiquated technology.Skillful  news media campaign showing blokes with red flags walking in front of trains instrumental in guiding public opinion against the RMT.Corbyn ousted.

3)labour to re-elect blair as leader, but this results in a massive swing to UKIP in the polls.labour now 3rd place.

4)temporary outage of www. puts the sh1ts up bitcoin users,and they look for hard assets.

5)US action in ME goes a bit disproportionate.Start of serious inflation.Trump calls for consolidation of present 50 states into 12 super-states to cut spiralling government debts/spending.

6)china slowly discloses they have rather more gold reserves than officially stated(phase 1)...they now declare 4000 tonnes(of an undisclosed 20000+), phase 1 dump of US T-bonds.

Edited December 23, 2016 by oracle

[rollover]

Oil is likely to remain below $50 a barrel.

High debt, overproduction and deflationary pressure will be creating instability.

Edited December 23, 2016 by rollover

[EnglishinWales]

Brexit goes stateside. I predict California and Texas to start their own independence movements. Similar in Europe, Russia, China etc. People have had enough of central government.

They won't catch the Berlin truck attack guy. Merkel will not win again. Hate crimes will rise in Germany. Germany will go into recession. The euro will be in trouble.

Basic income trials in Finland, Holland and Canada will show it to be a massive success. Here in UK the SNP and Labour will make it part of their manifesto increasing support for both. Corbyn will get stronger. Tony Blair will get cancer and will never return to politics. Labour will split into two parties.

Theresa May will start having a nervous breakdown around March when she is supposed to be doing hard Brexit. Opposition will grow and legal challenges will interfere with it. Timeline for triggering article 50 will be put forward to June.

By June there will be so much civil unrest and with May now a gibbering wreck it will force a general election. No majority means we will end up with another coalition government on a road to nowhere.

Also predict Queenie will either die or become weaker so as to almost become a recluse. Probably exacerbated by Philip dying too. This will fire up the calls for a republic meaning more civil unrest and panic amongst the elites.

Brendan Cox will become a familiar face on TV.

Nigel Farage will get a long term illness. He'll quit as an MEP and move to America permanently.

Phillip Hammond and Mark Carney will both get sacked by Theresa May. Interest rates will rise in line with America. House prices will stagnate. Lots of sellers will try and rent their properties meanwhile, which will lead to an excess of lettings, nationwide falling rents and tenants having the upperhand.

Landlord licensing will be rolled out nationwide and a national tenants' union will be formed bringing in major changes to renting laws akin to those in Europe. More landlords will sell up. I expect a house price crash to be well underway by the end of the year.

Edited December 23, 2016 by EnglishinWales

[ThePiltdownMan]

40 minutes ago, EnglishinWales said:

They won't catch the Berlin truck attack guy.

Berlin attack suspect Anis Amri 'killed in Milan'

[Errol]

4 hours ago, sideysid said:

More celebrities will die. 

So that's something to look forward to then!

(joke)

[cashinmattress]

Donald Trump and his 300 word vocabulary enriches the lives of political satirists & cartoonists, comedians, writers and talk show hosts with an endless plethora of gaffes.

Perhaps....

Mrs May loses vote of confidence, UK election called.

Erdogan survives 'assassination' attempt, locks down country further.

Philippians descends into civil war after Duterte commits some grievous act on his own people.

Increased Saudi civil unrest, big and bloody clampdown, perhaps in their more western cities.

American political structure wobbles as the Trump team rewrites the play book, markets rail on uncertainty.

Hard right EU politic is seriously curtailed through some combined action; perhaps introduction of an 'anti-fascist' framework.

Some beloved critter faces extinction, ups the ante on global warming... forcing 'carbon tax' legislation through in a big way.

BRICS get their shit together and bankroll some huge, high profile projects.

A large natural disaster involving a volcano, big losses of life.

A new disease reaps havoc in Africa.

India and China join the Russians and Yanks in development of next generation nukes, testing resumes.

[crashmonitor]

FTSE 100 7250

Gold $1100 (maybe sub $1000 during the year)

CPI 2.2% (slow growth will keep a lid on it imo)

GDP 1.4%

HPI 2.0% (held up by the north, London may fall)

Base Rates 0.25%

Pound $1.30

Brent $60

 

[EssKay]

I'll play along too:

 

Economy:

-Stocks: significantly higher (5-10%) globally with the US leading the charge and European markets lagging behind. FTSE to end the year around 7250

-Bonds: will take a kicking as investors rebalance to stocks in 2017

-FX: GBP to reach parity with USD by the end of the year. GBP/EUR to stay about the same unless we see a eurozone banking crisis

-Commodities: Oil to stabilise around $55, Gold to rebound back above £1000 before the summer and stay around that level for the rest of the year

 

Politics:

-Hard Brexit to turn into soft Brexit with single market access, passporting and freedom of movement to stay as reality dawns for the government 

-Theresa May to force through the snoopers charter despite the ECJ ruling

-At least one further challenge to Corbyn 

-Trump reneges on all his campaign promises (except tougher immigration rules). Will still be regarded as a "success"  as he opens the floodgates on infrastructure spending 

-France lurches further to the right with Marine le pen winning the presidency

-Merkel loses power if the Christmas market attack is followed by more attacks, hangs on otherwise 

-The Middle East continues to be a clusterf*** with the possibility of the current proxy wars between Iran and Saudi escalating into a more direct confrontation

 

Other: 

-Climate change fears continue to grow with unprecedented storms, flooding, glacial melt, methane release or all of the above

-Current gen VR turns out to be a damp squib as the software continues to be lacklustre

-3D printing goes mainstream with the release of the first printers targeted at the domestic market

-AI advances continue with DeepMind's Alpha Go success being followed up by success with Starcraft: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.techtimes.com/amp/articles/184860/20161105/googles-deepmind-takes-on-a-bigger-challenge-can-ai-be-tuned-to-beat-humans-in-starcraft-ii.htm?client=safari

 

[zugzwang]

One issue to dominate all others. Does China implode in 2017, or not? 

 

[Kiwi Toast]

I think you're being uncharitable. He won't be caught in 2017.

[Dorkins]

NIRP in the UK by end of 2017

[janch]

HPC

We've been waiting long enough!

[EnglishinWales]

10 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

• The UK's population will grow by 500,000
• Brexit will be kicked into the long grass - stuck in some legal limbo
• House prices will stall
• UK base rate will be cut to 0.0%.
• New migrant crisis - Turkey will open its borders and unleash millions of people into the EU
• Strong speculation that Twitter will fold (no buyers, never makes a profit) through the year - 2018 it will be folded into Instagram in some way
• Much talk about Facebook on the decline - we will come to realise that 2016 was Peak Facebook in years ahead
• Google will suffer a huge technical failure
• Gold will fall down to $800-$900 (investors have lost faith in PMs)
• FTSE 7600 to 7700 at end of year
• Oil at $65
• pound at $1.13

Don't be ridiculous peak Facebook was 2012.

[EnglishinWales]

2 hours ago, hotairmail said:

Takes some doing for one's 2017 predictions to be proven wrong even before 2017!

Okay but all the rest will happen.

[Darby Ram]

UK housing: zero nominal growth. HPI wealth evaporates invisibly through inflation and FX moves.

Stocks: a melt-up of 20%. Emerging markets outperform as the world becomes more mercantilist.

Bonds: no bondpocalypse, but yields continue to creep up as people realise that political risk is a thing under Trump.

Interest rates: UK, 0.25%; US, 1.25%.

Gold: $1000. (Unless the Chinese bubble machine rotates into it, and then, who knows.)

Oil: $40. The only way is down.

Bitcoin: a bubble, followed by a bust, as scaling problems and lack of technical progress become clear. $1050

Ethereum: currently has a market cap of about 4.5% of bitcoin; either, the ecosystem and technical advances come through and it ends 2017 with a market cap around 25% of bitcoin, or one of it's token sales becomes the inevitable test case for illegal securities selling in crypto, investment evaporates, and the market cap crashes to around 1% of bitcoin.

P2P: A big blow-up happens in the peer-to-peer space. One or more of: a big mini-bond default; ratcheting up of default rates on P2P lending sites as the business cycle turns; the rapid failure of an over-hyped and over-valued company that raised investment using equity crowdfunding. Investors cry foul and we don't see the hype cycle turn until an equity crowdfunded company exits on a huge multiple.    

[The Masked Tulip]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

One issue to dominate all others. Does China implode in 2017, or not? 

 

 

Yep, I am not really sure how to play this. On one hand the USD should soar on such a thing. On the other hand it could/should result in a global stock cash. But would money try to move into US stocks for perceived safety. Gold?

[rollover]

According to chartered surveyors:

Quote

 

House prices to stop tumbling in central London next year

UK house prices are set to rise by three per cent next year and central London prices will stop falling as they have done throughout this year. The Rics has predicted that house prices will continue to rise on the back of a shortage of housing supply, and that rents will also climb by between two and three per cent.

In central London, house prices have been falling this year, with values down by as much as 13 per cent in Chelsea. However, Rics said the market will be propped up in 2017 by interest from foreign buyers following the dramatic fall in the value of the pound after the Brexit vote.

Rics chief economist, said: "The ongoing shortfall of stock across much of the sales and lettings markets is set to continue to underpin prices and rents. As a result, the affordability challenge will remain very much to the fore for many.

"Meanwhile, the lack of existing inventory in the market is impacting the ability of households to move and will contribute toward transaction activity over the whole of 2017 being a little lower than in the year just ending." City AM

 

I think that's over optimistic prediction for 2017. I see plenty luxury apartments to be finished soon and put on the market. Most of them for unaffordable unrealistic price.

 

[RickyD]

Young and healthy looking scientist (actual age 85) reveals he has successfully been using a drug to reverse aging. House prices quadruple and old people will be around for a LOT longer than expected. Merry Christmas everyone!!

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

18 hours ago, doomed said:

Bitcoin is happening. I don't believe they can stop it or they would have already.

 

18 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:

I think the strength in bitcoin currently is a repeat of a few years back when Chinese people were using it to get money out of China.

Bitcoin is a Ponzi Casino. It's just like a Tulip Mania.

i had 10 coins that I bought for 3 quid each a long while ago. Trying to get the money out of the exchanges when I wanted to sell was a nightmare.

There is no real value there, and the block chain is already illuquid and unmanageable.

i predict bitcoin will collapse to zero sometime next year, though 2018 is more likely.

Bedsides, there are many more recent Blockchain implementations that are much more efficient than Bitcoin.

 

 

[Pieman Pieface]

Politically I think we are going to see a few more blocs developing, countries grouping together to form idealogical communities. You'll get the Dictatorships of Russia and Turkey possibly working together for a bit ( though that won't last, they have too many border tensions to deal with), then there are the more right wing Eastern European countries like Hungary and possibly Poland. 

Europe will start fracturing, Italy being the big one next. Maybe France if the nazi's get into power. 

Britain will be fine until we realise what a crappy deal we get out of Brexit negotiations and then suddenly everything will go tits up.

Any interest rate rise in the US and then all the conditions come together for an almight HPC! .. problem is we'll all have lost our jobs so couldn't take advantage.

[interestrateripoff]

All pot luck on the guessing front.

China will have a depression at some point in the future.

The Italian banking system appears on the brink.

 

Will DB collapse forcing a German govt bailout.

 

Our own banking system looks fragile.

The Fed seems intent on replicating the 1982 debt crisis.

 

Who knows maybe 2017 will just be more of 2016.

[doomed]

30 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

Bitcoin is a Ponzi Casino. It's just like a Tulip Mania.

i had 10 coins that I bought for 3 quid each a long while ago. Trying to get the money out of the exchanges when I wanted to sell was a nightmare.

There is no real value there, and the block chain is already illuquid and unmanageable.

i predict bitcoin will collapse to zero sometime next year, though 2018 is more likely.

Bedsides, there are many more recent Blockchain implementations that are much more efficient than Bitcoin.

 

 

I look forward to quoting this next year.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

31 minutes ago, doomed said:

I look forward to quoting this next year.

https://arxiv.org/abs/1311.0243

I been involved with systems that could easily crush bitcoin, but these are all for commercial purposes not nefarious ones. A decent BotNet could destroy bitcoin as a system pretty rapidly.

My point is there are better systems than Bitcoin coming online.

[doomed]

10 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

https://arxiv.org/abs/1311.0243

I been involved with systems that could easily crush bitcoin, but these are all for commercial purposes not nefarious ones. A decent BotNet could destroy bitcoin as a system pretty rapidly.

My point is there are better systems than Bitcoin coming online.

Well the authors of the paper you cite from 2013 obviously haven't give up working on Bitcoin. Here is their latest effort:

https://arxiv.org/abs/1612.07766

I do not see Bitcoin as nefarious, it is more a chance for people to hold and transact value without the parasites that our banks and government have become. 

Good luck with your corporate shit coin.

Edited December 23, 2016 by doomed