GreenDevil

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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28 minutes ago, RiskArb said:

Absolute tripe from you as usual, there is absolutely zero mandate for a second referendum - it's not going to happen and in your heart of hearts you know it. You need to accept the new reality, quit hoping and start moving on and getting used to life outside the EU comfort blanket. Another referendum assumes that a Remain vote returns us to the status quo before the original referendum, that state no longer exists and other EU countries will enjoy putting the boot in and forcing us to join the Euro, cancelling the rebate etc. in order to rejoin the fold - the time has passed and that ship has sailed.

Nothing is going to be achieved during this negotiation, we all know that. The EU is just spinning things out and wasting time until eventually its March 2019 and we all go home and have left the EU, deal or no deal. Come September and the 'Repeal Act' makes its way through the houses, EU primacy will have come to an end - there is no going back.

You will be proved wrong.

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38 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I think we are now game on for a second referendum, perhaps with a revised FOM clause from the EU. Basically May has been shown to be incompetent and David is now looking like a failure. 16% of the article 50 time has gone, and nothing has been achieved and we are heading into summer.


The election WAS a second referendum.

May presented her plan and asked for a Mandate to implement it.

It was rejected.

There HAS to be either a new election or referendum to give a clear Mandate for Brexit.

It HAS to include an explicit plan. 

A referendum on retaining Single Market membership over FoM would resolve the issue without discolouring by party affiliation in another election

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1 minute ago, Peter Hun said:


The election WAS a second referendum.

May presented her plan and asked for a Mandate to implement it.

It was rejected.

There HAS to be either a new election or referendum to give a clear Mandate for Brexit.

It HAS to include an explicit plan. 

A referendum on retaining Single Market membership over FoM would resolve the issue without discolouring by party affiliation in another election

 

Not really, there is a lot of evidence people were voting on a policy basis rather than Brexit.

A second referendum is definitely needed to give clarity and settle the issue. 

I think we will get one once the disaster of the Brexit negotiations is revealed.

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43 minutes ago, RiskArb said:

Absolute tripe from you as usual, there is absolutely zero mandate for a second referendum - it's not going to happen and in your heart of hearts you know it. You need to accept the new reality, quit hoping and start moving on and getting used to life outside the EU comfort blanket. Another referendum assumes that a Remain vote returns us to the status quo before the original referendum, that state no longer exists and other EU countries will enjoy putting the boot in and forcing us to join the Euro, cancelling the rebate etc. in order to rejoin the fold - the time has passed and that ship has sailed.

Nothing is going to be achieved during this negotiation, we all know that. The EU is just spinning things out and wasting time until eventually its March 2019 and we all go home and have left the EU, deal or no deal. Come September and the 'Repeal Act' makes its way through the houses, EU primacy will have come to an end - there is no going back.

Yeah well I think we figured out some time ago there's a high likelihood of  achieving turd sandwiches through Brexit  for the next half century - the question now is how do we avoid and have the imagination to aspire to something better.

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From what I've heard on the grapevine, is that a second referendum is looking likely once whatever shape or form of BREXIT is in place.

IMHO, if the Tory party are to find a new leader, then they could do with someone like Sir John Major, who handled a similar Tory revolt in the 90s. As a former Tory adviser just said, there's greater talent on the back benches than there is in the cabinet.

I don't know who that person is, but he/she is sorely needed to get the ship off the rocks at high tide. Big Beast of the Tory back-benches step forward now !

 

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1 hour ago, RiskArb said:

Absolute tripe from you as usual, there is absolutely zero mandate for a second referendum - it's not going to happen and in your heart of hearts you know it. You need to accept the new reality, quit hoping and start moving on and getting used to life outside the EU comfort blanket. Another referendum assumes that a Remain vote returns us to the status quo before the original referendum, that state no longer exists and other EU countries will enjoy putting the boot in and forcing us to join the Euro, cancelling the rebate etc. in order to rejoin the fold - the time has passed and that ship has sailed.

Nothing is going to be achieved during this negotiation, we all know that. The EU is just spinning things out and wasting time until eventually its March 2019 and we all go home and have left the EU, deal or no deal. Come September and the 'Repeal Act' makes its way through the houses, EU primacy will have come to an end - there is no going back.

I think it's the other way round, it's the UK who is wasting time.

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10 hours ago, Maynardgravy said:

Unfortunately we don't seem to get informed voters in any situation. How difficult is it to DYOR these days to get a basic grasp?

I've always thought it would be a good idea to have a couple of simple multi-choice questions on any ballot paper - What is Schengen? What is TTIP? Fail that and your vote in null and void.

You also seem to infer that many voters didn't know what they were voting as if this never happens anywhere else? I know loads of tory and labour voters (I don't vote in elections any more) who don't seem to have a clue what they're voting for. Doesn't mean elections get rerun, and governments u-turn all the time.

No really - I've probably spent the last year or so working out what we've really done to ourselves - and I'm still learning. Totally different from the run of the mill familiar gamble threshed out over decades in national elections.

For example a big big  surprise was that I'd fallen for the eurosceptic bull on the European Commision whereas in contrast for example, I have a much more nuanced understanding of the Bank of England.

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29 minutes ago, rollover said:

How is the government handling Brexit?

Well 18%    Daily Mail

Interesting that 47% vs 53% prefer a hard Brexit whereas only 35% vs 65% think no deal bettter than a bad deal. 

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2 hours ago, RiskArb said:

Absolute tripe from you as usual, there is absolutely zero mandate for a second referendum - it's not going to happen and in your heart of hearts you know it. You need to accept the new reality, quit hoping and start moving on and getting used to life outside the EU comfort blanket. Another referendum assumes that a Remain vote returns us to the status quo before the original referendum, that state no longer exists and other EU countries will enjoy putting the boot in and forcing us to join the Euro, cancelling the rebate etc. in order to rejoin the fold - the time has passed and that ship has sailed.

Nothing is going to be achieved during this negotiation, we all know that. The EU is just spinning things out and wasting time until eventually its March 2019 and we all go home and have left the EU, deal or no deal. Come September and the 'Repeal Act' makes its way through the houses, EU primacy will have come to an end - there is no going back.

Whatever happens we will not be leaving the EU in two years time, simply because it is an impossible task.

Six months ago the civil service departments had identified over 150,000 man years (or FTE years in civil service terms) of work on the projects that will be necessary to untangle ourselves from the EU.  The number was so scary that they were instructed not to produce a single list of all the work required in case it leaked.

The true size of the work is still unknown but the number is growing week by week as departments discover now areas that will be impacted.  

The following article hints at the scale of the problem, it doesn't put a number on the long transition period before we leave, as again it is considered too contentious to directly raise, but within the civil service talk is now of 15-20 years.    

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/15/brexit-disaster-theresa-may-gus-o-donnell-civil-service

NB Interesting that he raises the risk of an Autumn breakdown in the talks, fits nicely with the date predicted by the very unofficial sweepstake being run within the DexEU I posted a couple of weeks ago. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Whatever happens we will not be leaving the EU in two years time, simply because it is an impossible task.

Six months ago the civil service departments had identified over 150,000 man years (or FTE years in civil service terms) of work on the projects that will be necessary to untangle ourselves from the EU.  The number was so scary that they were instructed not to produce a single list of all the work required in case it leaked.

The true size of the work is still unknown but the number is growing week by week as departments discover now areas that will be impacted.  

The following article hints at the scale of the problem, it doesn't put a number on the long transition period before we leave, as again it is considered too contentious to directly raise, but within the civil service talk is now of 15-20 years.    

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/15/brexit-disaster-theresa-may-gus-o-donnell-civil-service

NB Interesting that he raises the risk of an Autumn breakdown in the talks, fits nicely with the date predicted by the very unofficial sweepstake being run within the DexEU I posted a couple of weeks ago. 

 

Knocking buildings down always goes a lot quicker than putting them up.

All you're really doing here is showing 

1) how woefully inefficient the civil service can be

2) that project fear lives on even though it's first incarnation failed to win even with virtually eveything going in it's favour-Westminster,BBC etc etc

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4 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Knocking buildings down always goes a lot quicker than putting them up.

All you're really doing here is showing 

1) how woefully inefficient the civil service can be

2) that project fear lives on even though it's first incarnation failed to win even with virtually eveything going in it's favour-Westminster,BBC etc etc

1   a) I assume that's based on your own prejudices rather than any real knowledge  b ) it's the only one we have and no one else is going to do the work

2  of course it lives on, it's the reality that we are rapidly approaching.     

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The pant wetting continues. 

Get over it. It's happening. Whether you like it or not. 

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8 hours ago, pig said:

hey lets team up with 'anglophone' countries

As a nation, we have more in common with the anglo countries than we do with the likes of EU countries such as France.

This is still the case despite having been in bed with them since 1973 (only after Charles de Gaulle's resignation!).

France doesn't even like us. It's been reported that they are trying to crush The City. 

They are probably still smarting over French not being the global language.

C'est la vie France!

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7 hours ago, pig said:

Interesting that 47% vs 53% prefer a hard Brexit whereas only 35% vs 65% think no deal bettter than a bad deal. 

There are some seriously deluded voters. As CoVI points out, the choice is Leave or don't Leave, there is no Hard/Soft Good/Bad.

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4 hours ago, ccc said:

Get over it. It's happening. Whether you like it or not. 

That kind of bluster and bravado is soooo 2016. Not to mention playing right into the hands of the EU. 

From today's FT:

https://www.ft.com/content/2d3fa91c-68a9-11e7-8526-7b38dcaef614

But another EU negotiator thinks the UK is bluffing when it threatens to walk away from the table. “This is what gives us leverage. Every day that ticks away gives the Europeans more leverage, because the Brits are not prepared and never will be prepared. So the reasoning is that in the end they will be on their knees. They will be on their knees because they will not be ready,” the negotiator said

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4 hours ago, ccc said:

Get over it. It's happening. Whether you like it or not. 

Whats happening? As far as I can see, nothing is happening. It would take one vote in the Commons and Brexit will be stopped.

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9 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

16% of the article 50 time has gone, and nothing has been achieved and we are heading into summer.

I think you are being overly negative - try and think about this from the EU point of view: They have got the UK to agree to their timescale, got the UK to agree to having negotiations about leaving first before trade and got the UK to agree that they will be making a payment to the EU. Not bad for a couple of weeks work!

Oh, and David Davis has a new James Bond briefcase to keep his blank A4 pad and biros in.

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1 hour ago, ExiledMatty said:

As a nation, we have more in common with the anglo countries than we do with the likes of EU countries such as France.

This is still the case despite having been in bed with them since 1973 (only after Charles de Gaulle's resignation!).

France doesn't even like us. It's been reported that they are trying to crush The City. 

They are probably still smarting over French not being the global language.

C'est la vie France!

It's quite charming that you don't yet understand leaving the EU means making the EU27 real competition for the UK.

There are no friends in business and politics - only aligned interests.

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21 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Whats happening? As far as I can see, nothing is happening. It would take one vote in the Commons and Brexit will be stopped we drop out of the EU without a deal. 

Corrected and thats fine by me..

 

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51 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Whats happening? As far as I can see, nothing is happening. It would take one vote in the Commons and Brexit will be stopped.

Well first of all it was going to be a fudge and article 50 would never be raised.

It was.

And then oh well it may have been raised but it's going to take 30 years.

It won't.

And now it's oh well negotiations have begun but we are not really going to leave.

We are.

It's pantwetting by sore losers. Nothing more. Nothing less. 

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27 minutes ago, ccc said:

Well first of all it was going to be a fudge and article 50 would never be raised.

It was.

And then oh well it may have been raised but it's going to take 30 years.

It won't.

And now it's oh well negotiations have begun but we are not really going to leave.

We are.

It's pantwetting by sore losers. Nothing more. Nothing less. 

First, they needed us more than we needed them - because the Germans sold us loads of cars.

Then https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/08/german-industry-warns-uk-over-brexit

And then "we hold all the cards".

But https://www.ft.com/content/a0e25381-e85b-3572-baf2-3acf9aeba52a

And then no deal is was better than a bad deal...

However https://www.ft.com/content/2d3fa91c-68a9-11e7-8526-7b38dcaef614

Some pants are certainly being soiled, but only the ones worn by the Brexit supporters in the govermment.

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2 hours ago, ExiledMatty said:

As a nation, we have more in common with the anglo countries than we do with the likes of EU countries such as France.

This is still the case despite having been in bed with them since 1973 (only after Charles de Gaulle's resignation!).

France doesn't even like us. It's been reported that they are trying to crush The City. 

They are probably still smarting over French not being the global language.

C'est la vie France!

It would probably make more sense rebuilding Hadrians wall than dynamiting the channel tunnel lol!

In all seriousness we are talking about the relations between countries, not where shared language makes it feel less intimidating to go on holiday. 

We should be seeking the best relations in our national interest with all countries. Not fearing and seeking to 'replace' relationships with countries that don't speak English (well, failing as there is no 'replacing').

In terms of history, well how do you summarise ? We've been fighting loving and living with the French since before 1066, we sorted it out by the 20C and fought alongside them. Try googling it but better still just look at where it is located on a map.

 

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2 hours ago, Futuroid said:

That kind of bluster and bravado is soooo 2016. Not to mention playing right into the hands of the EU. 

From today's FT:

https://www.ft.com/content/2d3fa91c-68a9-11e7-8526-7b38dcaef614

But another EU negotiator thinks the UK is bluffing when it threatens to walk away from the table. “This is what gives us leverage. Every day that ticks away gives the Europeans more leverage, because the Brits are not prepared and never will be prepared. So the reasoning is that in the end they will be on their knees. They will be on their knees because they will not be ready,” the negotiator said

Well remember that ccc could not bring him/herself to answer yes or no whether the markets had priced Brexit in. A pretty uncontroversial  point but like the government caught like a rabbit in the headlights.

Faced with a question with no good answer and no courage, all you have left to do is recycle bluster until reality strikes.

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