GreenDevil

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

22,675 posts in this topic

15 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

The latest poll on Brexit. People want soft Brexit with the referendum.

Can you point me to the Survation survey which asks about Hard & Soft Brexit with FoM as the focus - I can't find it?

Sorry, not sure what you are asking for. This the link for today's poll below. The link for yesterday's poll in my post. 

http://mailchi.mp/survation/post-election-poll-for-the-mail-on-sunday-1118693 

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3 minutes ago, slawek said:

Sorry, not sure what you are asking for. This the link for today's poll below. The link for yesterday's poll in my post. 

http://mailchi.mp/survation/post-election-poll-for-the-mail-on-sunday-1118693 

I was referring to the survey question which offered Hard & Soft Brexit options based on trade. Iwas/ would be interested to see the question asked using FoM as the basis for the two alternatives.

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2 hours ago, slawek said:

The EU referendum is still a coin toss but preference for a soft Brexit not (55% soft vs 35% hard). 

Lab was steadily getting votes initially from LibDem, Greens but after the Cons manifesto from them as well.  

Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.thumb.png.801cfab4e2944c725c39bc5deadc8187.png

 

How do you arrive at 55/35 hardness of brexit from the linked polling chart?

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26 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The EU exists.  Let's make the most of it, instead of wasting time on endless GCSE level debates about sovereignty.

"Let's do what matters for me, not what matters for you."

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57 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

So you think 90% of people aren't qualified to express an opinion about the UK's place in Europe. 

For once I think you are right, so why on earth did we ask them to vote on an issue they don't understand. 

 

56 minutes ago, slawek said:

Are you suggesting the people didn't know what they voted for in the EU referendum? ;)

When I typed that I knew these would be the response. :D

49 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Broad spread vs details. In a perfect world the population decides the general direction and the government works out the details of best implementing it.

As above. We either accept this or just let our 'leaders' rule everything and we never get a say in any of it. Whilst not perfect - I go for option A.

I was pretty staggered to hear a person on a TV debate prior to it bring up Phone roaming charges perhaps increasing as their main argument for thinking we should stay. No this is not made up - really they did. However, if they have a vote and they used it based on that ? Up to them. It all balances out on both sides.

So what we have is based on a number of reasons - some fair - some ridiculous - the majority going for Brexit. So let's get on with it and stop fannying about.

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26 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The EU exists.  Let's make the most of it, instead of wasting time on endless GCSE level debates about sovereignty.

And most countries aren't a member of it. What's your point exactly. ;)

22 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Well didn't mean it like that, my point was that whether we remain or we exit there will be a very large effect on the economy for either good or bad. You would think that a person making a firm decision to vote would have some sort of understanding about the existing versus their predicted future cost-benefit to the country. None of them ever did however and said random things like I want to save the NHS or stop my job going to India or similar which is not what I call relevant to a Brexit vote.

That was also my experience. I considered my principles and the possible outcomes of a vote either way and made the decision to abstain. Yet it's possible I was in a more knowledgable position to make a decision than many of those around me. I'm still satisfied with my choice regardless. Not that many people get it.

 

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1 minute ago, ccc said:

 

When I typed that I knew these would be the response. :D

As above. We either accept this or just let our 'leaders' rule everything and we never get a say in any of it. Whilst not perfect - I go for option A.

I was pretty staggered to hear a person on a TV debate prior to it bring up Phone roaming charges perhaps increasing as their main argument for thinking we should stay. No this is not made up - really they did. However, if they have a vote and they used it based on that ? Up to them. It all balances out on both sides.

So what we have is based on a number of reasons - some fair - some ridiculous - the majority going for Brexit. So let's get on with it and stop fannying about.

Hard to get on with IT, while we have the ruling party on the verge of tearing itself apart arguing about what IT is.

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15 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

I was referring to the survey question which offered Hard & Soft Brexit options based on trade. Iwas/ would be interested to see the question asked using FoM as the basis for the two alternatives.

That is the recent Brexit related polls I am aware of. None seems to ask a question using FOM as a selector.

Today's survation poll  http://mailchi.mp/survation/post-election-poll-for-the-mail-on-sunday-1118637?e=c37db807f4

Yesterday's survation poll http://mailchi.mp/survation/post-election-poll-for-the-mail-on-sunday-1118693 

Yougov from a few days ago https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9pum7c5c4j/AnthonyResults_170613_Brexit_W.pdf

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1 minute ago, slawek said:

That is the recent Brexit related polls I am aware of. None seems to ask a question using FOM as a selector.

Today's survation poll  http://mailchi.mp/survation/post-election-poll-for-the-mail-on-sunday-1118637?e=c37db807f4

Yesterday's survation poll http://mailchi.mp/survation/post-election-poll-for-the-mail-on-sunday-1118693 

Yougov from a few days ago https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9pum7c5c4j/AnthonyResults_170613_Brexit_W.pdf

Why do you think that is?

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7 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Why do you think that is?

Don't know. Send them an email they might add it to the next poll.

Yougov poll could be be used as some proxy

It asks to rank four possibilities, no deal, limited trade deal, efta like with FOM, staying in the EU, 

they are selected as the preferred option by 23%, 22%, 19%, 35% respectively.  that would give 45% to 54% for FOM. 

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Gideon Rachman twitt: UK should fund the Brexit bill by issuing an Freedom from the EU Bond, marketable to hardline Eurosceptics, paying 0% interest.

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Quote

 

David Davis offers united approach in Brexit talks

In an opening statement that contrasted with Theresa May’s bellicose threats to leave with no deal, he hinted that the UK was prepared to make compromises in some areas.

“We are starting this negotiation in a positive and constructive tone, determined to build a strong and special partnership between ourselves and our European allies and friends for the future,” he said.

DD saying: “There’s more that unites us than divides us.” ES

 

Is the EU going to fall for the sweet talk?

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9 minutes ago, rollover said:
Quote

 

David Davis offers united approach in Brexit talks

In an opening statement that contrasted with Theresa May’s bellicose threats to leave with no deal, he hinted that the UK was prepared to make compromises in some areas.

“We are starting this negotiation in a positive and constructive tone, determined to build a strong and special partnership between ourselves and our European allies and friends for the future,” he said.

DD saying: “There’s more that unites us than divides us.” ES

 

Is the EU going to fall for the sweet talk?

Did they fall for this:

Quote

...

Our vote to leave the European Union was no rejection of the values we share. The decision to leave the EU represents no desire to become more distant to you, our friends and neighbours. It was no attempt to do harm to the EU itself or to any of its remaining member states. We do not want to turn the clock back to the days when Europe was less peaceful, less secure and less able to trade freely. It was a vote to restore, as we see it, our parliamentary democracy, national self-determination, and to become even more global and internationalist in action and in spirit.

We will continue to be reliable partners, willing allies and close friends. We want to buy your goods and services, sell you ours, trade with you as freely as possible, and work with one another to make sure we are all safer, more secure and more prosperous through continued friendship.

 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-governments-negotiating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech

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31 minutes ago, slawek said:

Don't knowSend them an email they might add it to the next poll

Yougov poll could be be used as some proxy

It asks to rank four possibilities, no deal, limited trade deal, efta like with FOM, staying in the EU, 

they are selected as the preferred option by 23%, 22%, 19%, 35% respectively.  that would give 45% to 54% for FOM. 

Fair enough.

Tenuous conclusion on FoM, since, like the GE, it is not a binary question. (unlike the Survation one upthread)

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6 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

In other words "we want to have our cake and eat it"

 

Just saying they didn't fall for it back in January. Mind you possible further delay to the discussions:

Quote

Eurocrats told they can go home EARLY if it gets too hot in the office as Brexit negotiations finally kick off in the middle of a heatwave

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4618086/EU-staff-home-EARLY-gets-hot.html

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2 hours ago, ccc said:

How can you say the fabric of our society hasn't changed when there are numerous areas all over the UK where you can walk down the street and expect to hear Polish being spoken more than English ?

There were areas of London in the 1920 where you could walk down the street and expect to hear Yiddish.

There were areas of London & Birmingham in the 60s & 70s where you could walk down the street and expect to hear Jamaican Patois.

There are still areas of Spain today where you can only hear English (with an estuary accent) spoken!

When I was at school all the Little Englanders were worried about the Indians and Pakistanis, now they are worried about the Poles.

Immigration has been a constant part of the fabric of this country for hundreds of years. It will remain so. As my earlier post alluded. Would you rather see people who share a common culture (plenty of Polish names on many UK war memorials), or would you rather go further afield.

Reducing immigration to zero is not an option you'll be getting.

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Hard to get on with IT, while we have the ruling party on the verge of tearing itself apart arguing about what IT is.

Yes they are in a mess - however I was making a general point.

16 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

In other words "we want to have our cake and eat it"

 

Surely the standard commencement of bargaining of pretty much anything ? Anything less and I would be rather annoyed.

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9 minutes ago, ccc said:

Yes they are in a mess - however I was making a general point.

Surely the standard commencement of bargaining of pretty much anything ? Anything less and I would be rather annoyed.

Glad you are happy about an opening statement of no substance one year after the vote on the first day of negs

Surprised David Davies didn't start singing "I'd like to give the world a Coke"

Or am I being histrionic?

Edited by knock out johnny

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10 hours ago, slawek said:

A new Survation poll,  

 Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” How would you vote? (Undecided refused removed)

Remain  51%

Leave   49%

In the light of the General Election result, which of the following do you prefe

A “hard” Brexit, involving leaving the EU single market and customs union

35%

A “soft” Brexit, not involving leaving the EU single market and customs union

55%

Don’t know

10%

Which of the following is closest to your view?

The current Conservative-led government will be best to negotiate a good deal for Britain leaving the EU

35%

A coalition of all political parties, would be best to negotiate a good deal for Britain leaving the EU

60%

Don’t know

5%

Do you support or oppose the following statement?

“There should be another referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU when negotiations are complete”.

Support      38%

Oppose      57%

Don’t know  4%

 

The other issue here is the soft option isn't fully explored. Do we get to stay in the customs union and free market but don't pay anything, no freedom of movement and no ECJ? All the benefits without the downsides? Sure, sounds good to me. Or is it what we have now without representation? That doesn't sound so good. Not sure you can read to much into the result TBH

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3 hours ago, knock out johnny said:

Glad you are happy about an opening statement of no substance one year after the vote on the first day of negs

Surprised David Davies didn't start singing "I'd like to give the world a Coke"

Or am I being histrionic?

What opening statement would you be happy with ?

Let us know. 

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58 minutes ago, Richmond said:

The other issue here is the soft option isn't fully explored. Do we get to stay in the customs union and free market but don't pay anything, no freedom of movement and no ECJ? All the benefits without the downsides? Sure, sounds good to me. Or is it what we have now without representation? That doesn't sound so good. Not sure you can read to much into the result TBH

Again assuming that there's a downside to the EU - beyond it clashing with their ideology - with that. The problem with "all the benefits without the downsides" is that it assumes that the downsides to us are upsides to someone else. Now obviously paying some money is an upside to someone else but it's hard to justify demands for extra payment for a system that makes you richer anyway. I expect CofVIs to pop up in a moment to say how he's explained all this numerous times by "you've got to be in the club" and nothing else.

Edited by Riedquat

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On ‎6‎/‎16‎/‎2017 at 3:51 PM, Confusion of VIs said:

There is a rumour doing the rounds that the UK has caved in to the EU and will agree to the separation of the exit deal, agreeing that plus any exit payments before we enter discussions over any transition or long term trade deal.

Looks like the rumour was true. Davis didn't raise this as an issue today, much less threaten to walk away if the EU threatened to push the issue. Maybe he will raise it tomorrow but he would have to be a pretty poor negotiator not to give a heads up if he intended to do this.

Edit: No complete cave in according to news reports. 

Edited by Confusion of VIs

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1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

Again assuming that there's a downside to the EU - beyond it clashing with their ideology - with that. The problem with "all the benefits without the downsides" is that it assumes that the downsides to us are upsides to someone else. Now obviously paying some money is an upside to someone else but it's hard to justify demands for extra payment for a system that makes you richer anyway. I expect CofVIs to pop up in a moment to say how he's explained all this numerous times by "you've got to be in the club" and nothing else.

True, I guess downsides in the eyes of someone who wants to leave but would tick 'soft Brexit' without understanding all the elements associated to it, when it would cross a red line still in some cases. For example you may say not being able to do our own trade deals is still a downside. But then who knows, a soft Brexit deal may say we can stay in the customs and free market AND have our own trade deals. Or stay and have anything we want. That's the problem with the question, it is not clear what exactly constitutes all the parts of a soft Brexit

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