GreenDevil

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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David Davis offers united approach in Brexit talks

In an opening statement that contrasted with Theresa May’s bellicose threats to leave with no deal, he hinted that the UK was prepared to make compromises in some areas.

“We are starting this negotiation in a positive and constructive tone, determined to build a strong and special partnership between ourselves and our European allies and friends for the future,” he said.

DD saying: “There’s more that unites us than divides us.” ES

 

Is the EU going to fall for the sweet talk?

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9 minutes ago, rollover said:
Quote

 

David Davis offers united approach in Brexit talks

In an opening statement that contrasted with Theresa May’s bellicose threats to leave with no deal, he hinted that the UK was prepared to make compromises in some areas.

“We are starting this negotiation in a positive and constructive tone, determined to build a strong and special partnership between ourselves and our European allies and friends for the future,” he said.

DD saying: “There’s more that unites us than divides us.” ES

 

Is the EU going to fall for the sweet talk?

Did they fall for this:

Quote

...

Our vote to leave the European Union was no rejection of the values we share. The decision to leave the EU represents no desire to become more distant to you, our friends and neighbours. It was no attempt to do harm to the EU itself or to any of its remaining member states. We do not want to turn the clock back to the days when Europe was less peaceful, less secure and less able to trade freely. It was a vote to restore, as we see it, our parliamentary democracy, national self-determination, and to become even more global and internationalist in action and in spirit.

We will continue to be reliable partners, willing allies and close friends. We want to buy your goods and services, sell you ours, trade with you as freely as possible, and work with one another to make sure we are all safer, more secure and more prosperous through continued friendship.

 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-governments-negotiating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech

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31 minutes ago, slawek said:

Don't knowSend them an email they might add it to the next poll

Yougov poll could be be used as some proxy

It asks to rank four possibilities, no deal, limited trade deal, efta like with FOM, staying in the EU, 

they are selected as the preferred option by 23%, 22%, 19%, 35% respectively.  that would give 45% to 54% for FOM. 

Fair enough.

Tenuous conclusion on FoM, since, like the GE, it is not a binary question. (unlike the Survation one upthread)

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6 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

In other words "we want to have our cake and eat it"

 

Just saying they didn't fall for it back in January. Mind you possible further delay to the discussions:

Quote

Eurocrats told they can go home EARLY if it gets too hot in the office as Brexit negotiations finally kick off in the middle of a heatwave

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4618086/EU-staff-home-EARLY-gets-hot.html

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2 hours ago, ccc said:

How can you say the fabric of our society hasn't changed when there are numerous areas all over the UK where you can walk down the street and expect to hear Polish being spoken more than English ?

There were areas of London in the 1920 where you could walk down the street and expect to hear Yiddish.

There were areas of London & Birmingham in the 60s & 70s where you could walk down the street and expect to hear Jamaican Patois.

There are still areas of Spain today where you can only hear English (with an estuary accent) spoken!

When I was at school all the Little Englanders were worried about the Indians and Pakistanis, now they are worried about the Poles.

Immigration has been a constant part of the fabric of this country for hundreds of years. It will remain so. As my earlier post alluded. Would you rather see people who share a common culture (plenty of Polish names on many UK war memorials), or would you rather go further afield.

Reducing immigration to zero is not an option you'll be getting.

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Hard to get on with IT, while we have the ruling party on the verge of tearing itself apart arguing about what IT is.

Yes they are in a mess - however I was making a general point.

16 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

In other words "we want to have our cake and eat it"

 

Surely the standard commencement of bargaining of pretty much anything ? Anything less and I would be rather annoyed.

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9 minutes ago, ccc said:

Yes they are in a mess - however I was making a general point.

Surely the standard commencement of bargaining of pretty much anything ? Anything less and I would be rather annoyed.

Glad you are happy about an opening statement of no substance one year after the vote on the first day of negs

Surprised David Davies didn't start singing "I'd like to give the world a Coke"

Or am I being histrionic?

Edited by knock out johnny

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10 hours ago, slawek said:

A new Survation poll,  

 Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” How would you vote? (Undecided refused removed)

Remain  51%

Leave   49%

In the light of the General Election result, which of the following do you prefe

A “hard” Brexit, involving leaving the EU single market and customs union

35%

A “soft” Brexit, not involving leaving the EU single market and customs union

55%

Don’t know

10%

Which of the following is closest to your view?

The current Conservative-led government will be best to negotiate a good deal for Britain leaving the EU

35%

A coalition of all political parties, would be best to negotiate a good deal for Britain leaving the EU

60%

Don’t know

5%

Do you support or oppose the following statement?

“There should be another referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU when negotiations are complete”.

Support      38%

Oppose      57%

Don’t know  4%

 

The other issue here is the soft option isn't fully explored. Do we get to stay in the customs union and free market but don't pay anything, no freedom of movement and no ECJ? All the benefits without the downsides? Sure, sounds good to me. Or is it what we have now without representation? That doesn't sound so good. Not sure you can read to much into the result TBH

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3 hours ago, knock out johnny said:

Glad you are happy about an opening statement of no substance one year after the vote on the first day of negs

Surprised David Davies didn't start singing "I'd like to give the world a Coke"

Or am I being histrionic?

What opening statement would you be happy with ?

Let us know. 

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58 minutes ago, Richmond said:

The other issue here is the soft option isn't fully explored. Do we get to stay in the customs union and free market but don't pay anything, no freedom of movement and no ECJ? All the benefits without the downsides? Sure, sounds good to me. Or is it what we have now without representation? That doesn't sound so good. Not sure you can read to much into the result TBH

Again assuming that there's a downside to the EU - beyond it clashing with their ideology - with that. The problem with "all the benefits without the downsides" is that it assumes that the downsides to us are upsides to someone else. Now obviously paying some money is an upside to someone else but it's hard to justify demands for extra payment for a system that makes you richer anyway. I expect CofVIs to pop up in a moment to say how he's explained all this numerous times by "you've got to be in the club" and nothing else.

Edited by Riedquat

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On ‎6‎/‎16‎/‎2017 at 3:51 PM, Confusion of VIs said:

There is a rumour doing the rounds that the UK has caved in to the EU and will agree to the separation of the exit deal, agreeing that plus any exit payments before we enter discussions over any transition or long term trade deal.

Looks like the rumour was true. Davis didn't raise this as an issue today, much less threaten to walk away if the EU threatened to push the issue. Maybe he will raise it tomorrow but he would have to be a pretty poor negotiator not to give a heads up if he intended to do this.

Edit: No complete cave in according to news reports. 

Edited by Confusion of VIs

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1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

Again assuming that there's a downside to the EU - beyond it clashing with their ideology - with that. The problem with "all the benefits without the downsides" is that it assumes that the downsides to us are upsides to someone else. Now obviously paying some money is an upside to someone else but it's hard to justify demands for extra payment for a system that makes you richer anyway. I expect CofVIs to pop up in a moment to say how he's explained all this numerous times by "you've got to be in the club" and nothing else.

True, I guess downsides in the eyes of someone who wants to leave but would tick 'soft Brexit' without understanding all the elements associated to it, when it would cross a red line still in some cases. For example you may say not being able to do our own trade deals is still a downside. But then who knows, a soft Brexit deal may say we can stay in the customs and free market AND have our own trade deals. Or stay and have anything we want. That's the problem with the question, it is not clear what exactly constitutes all the parts of a soft Brexit

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1 minute ago, Richmond said:

True, I guess downsides in the eyes of someone who wants to leave but would tick 'soft Brexit' without understanding all the elements associated to it, when it would cross a red line still in some cases. For example you may say not being able to do our own trade deals is still a downside. But then who knows, a soft Brexit deal may say we can stay in the customs and free market AND have our own trade deals. Or stay and have anything we want. That's the problem with the question, it is not clear what exactly constitutes all the parts of a soft Brexit

Because of the timeframe, we'd have to adopt an existing framework.  Typically the EEA or some sort of bilateral deal, such as Switzerland (both most likely via EFTA).  The customs union comes under the jurisdiction of the ECJ - so we cannot be a part of that.  The CU does not stop us signing FTAs - thats the common commerical policy.  A separate thing.

This gives you an idea of whats in the EEA...

?format=750w

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Two-thirds of Europeans believe EU should take hard line on Brexit

Two-thirds of Europeans believe the EU should take a hard line with the UK over Brexit, according to a survey. Sixty-five per cent of those questioned in Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy Austria, Hungary and Poland said the EU, while trying to maintain a good relationship with Britain, should not compromise on its core principles. Guardian

 

It looks like the Europeans are more pro hard Brexit than the UK itself. And more united too.

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38 minutes ago, Lambie said:

Just to derail with a bit of slight comic relief from all the madness, I saw this headline in my twitter feed (provenance unknown) and thought, that figure seemed familiar.

17.4 million American adults think chocolate milk comes from brown cows

...the headline figure is put into perspective when that number is described accurately as 7.4% .....probably quite accurate for the UK and other city style  'western economies' also..... .:rolleyes:

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58 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

It looks like the Europeans are more pro hard Brexit than the UK itself. And more united too.

...their core principles do not include democracy or common sense ...let them carry on with the  'la la land' dream and get out quick ..we are not in their EU currency and the matter should be straight forward ...:rolleyes:

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9 hours ago, Futuroid said:

There were areas of London in the 1920 where you could walk down the street and expect to hear Yiddish.

There were areas of London & Birmingham in the 60s & 70s where you could walk down the street and expect to hear Jamaican Patois.

There are still areas of Spain today where you can only hear English (with an estuary accent) spoken!

When I was at school all the Little Englanders were worried about the Indians and Pakistanis, now they are worried about the Poles.

Immigration has been a constant part of the fabric of this country for hundreds of years. It will remain so. As my earlier post alluded. Would you rather see people who share a common culture (plenty of Polish names on many UK war memorials), or would you rather go further afield.

Reducing immigration to zero is not an option you'll be getting.

...there is no question of immigration being zero ...is it zero in Aus..?....don't quote zero when it has never been in the calculation and is merely an attempt by you to mislead...basically we do not need to be in a union which is not based on democracy and is led by the unelected ....maybe you  have a vested interest in this style of set up ....but at least now, we are aware....:rolleyes:

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15 hours ago, Futuroid said:

There were areas of London in the 1920 where you could walk down the street and expect to hear Yiddish.

There were areas of London & Birmingham in the 60s & 70s where you could walk down the street and expect to hear Jamaican Patois.

There are still areas of Spain today where you can only hear English (with an estuary accent) spoken!

When I was at school all the Little Englanders were worried about the Indians and Pakistanis, now they are worried about the Poles.

Immigration has been a constant part of the fabric of this country for hundreds of years. It will remain so. As my earlier post alluded. Would you rather see people who share a common culture (plenty of Polish names on many UK war memorials), or would you rather go further afield.

Reducing immigration to zero is not an option you'll be getting.

I'd prefer neither when it's in large numbers. 

Its difficult to know exact numbers - but in the past 15 years we have imported between 3-5 million people from a single other country. I'm almost certain this has never happened before in the UK.

To say there has always been immigration to the UK is an extremely poor effort in comparison. What's happened recently is off the scale and unprecedented. 

Hence things like the "shock" Brexit vote. 

Join the dots. 

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5 hours ago, South Lorne said:

...there is no question of immigration being zero ...is it zero in Aus..?....don't quote zero when it has never been in the calculation and is merely an attempt by you to mislead...basically we do not need to be in a union which is not based on democracy and is led by the unelected ....maybe you  have a vested interest in this style of set up ....but at least now, we are aware....:rolleyes:

Ask me to "don't quote zero"...

...Then build your own strawman a sentence later "maybe you have a vested interested in this style of set up"!

I was simply pointing out that the UK has a long and established history of immigration and that areas dominated by recent immigrants is absolutely nothing new. It's quite natural that strangers in a foreign country would group together for a variety of reasons - easier social interaction, areas with the cheapest cost of living, employment opportunities, etc.

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3 minutes ago, ccc said:

 Join the dots. 

I joined the dots a while ago and they led me to a toxic background of lies and half truths drip fed by a Eurosceptic press, owned by foreign billionaires and cheerled by Eurosceptic members of the Conservative party.

This has been mentioned many times in this thread already (at least three times by me), but the real power behind Brexit cares not about immigration. Immigration was simply something that was identified by campaign focus groups as a "hot button" that could be used to harvest votes. As was for example, the NHS.

Daniel Hannan - who is essentially Mr Brexit (he's been campaigning for it for 25 odd years) suggests that Brexit may not reduce immigration:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/683445/daniel-hannan-brexit-not-lead-cut-migration-vote-leave

Decades before Johnson and Gove had even considered Brexit, people like Hannan was quietly working away, please note that this work (and in fact the formation of UKIP) occurred long before freedom of movement was implemented in the UK:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/daniel-hannan-the-man-who-brought-you-brexit 

And "Freedom of Movement" might seem like a recent concept, brought to the table by the EU, but in fact the UK has only had "control of it's borders" for 11 years in the last 100.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/05/freedom-movement-didnt-start-eu-its-norm-britain

British Citizenship has only existed for 34 year, prior to which it was Citizenship of the United Kingdom and Colonies. Will tens of millions born outside the UK free to come and work as they pleased.

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Brexit risks to UK economy in focus as Hammond, Carney speak

The two men in charge of Britain's economy are expected to spell out on Tuesday how they plan to prevent a further hit to its already weakened growth prospects following the launch of the country's historic Brexit talks.

A day after British and European Union negotiators met for the first time in Brussels, finance minister Philip Hammond and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver speeches they postponed last week because of a deadly fire in a London housing block.

Britain went from being one of the fastest-growing economies among the Group of Seven nations in 2016 to its slowest in early 2017 as the fall in the value of the pound after the Brexit referendum pushed up inflation and hit consumer spending. Reuters

 

It is the sentiment and uncertainty from unknown, that holds investors and everyone else from spending. Exclusively the top end new London apartments will be hit hard.

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1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

I was simply pointing out that the UK has a long and established history of immigration and that areas dominated by immigrants are nothing new  

This particular argument is as patronising as it is wrong. 

We've had lions and elephants living here for hundreds of years, you didn't expect to spot one in your back garden.  

Mass immigration has exploded within the last 20 years, and didn't really start at all until after the war.

Some people can remember a world without it, and almost every adult can see the post 90s transformation with their own eyes.

What you've done, is to confuse Britain with America.  Please stop.

 

 

Edited by DrBuyToLeech

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