Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[HairyOb1]

4 minutes ago, Snugglybear said:

Well, no, there wouldn't be any mentions of "customs" and the mentions of "border" likely weren't relevant.

You know, given that the agreement was predicated on the two states being members of a single market, with freedom of movement for goods and people.  

Do you really need reminding that this situation will, if the current UK government has its way, end?

I was just putting together something more or less similar to this.  Couple to it that the peace accord kind of hinges on there being no border too, to appease Sinn Fein.  I think the DUP would love to go back to a hard border.

[HairyOb1]

12 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

March 2017, ten surveys had LibDems polling at between 7 - 13%...

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

And no comment on LE results of late?

Plus, if you want to play the historical game, Conservatives at the time, also had a polling percentage of 49%.

Using your logic, does that mean support for them has fallen due to their brexit stance, down 12%?

Labour now polling 20% higher than at the same time too, who have advocated staying in a Customs Union, so is their success down to their brexit stance change?

Edited March 12, 2018 by HairyOb1

[kzb]

22 minutes ago, Snugglybear said:

Well, no, there wouldn't be any mentions of "customs" and the mentions of "border" likely weren't relevant.

You know, given that the agreement was predicated on the two states being members of a single market, with freedom of movement for goods and people.  

Do you really need reminding that this situation will, if the current UK government has its way, end?

All I am asking is why a border for goods puts the GFA at risk.  We are told it does and I just like to know exactly why.  There is no mention of single market.

[HairyOb1]

35 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

I can feel your excitement...tick...tock..   .

Well, it kind of proves what I was saying, no excitement, as I knew I was correct.

Come back and discuss it in May, but there have been some huge swings towards the LibDems.

[OnionTerror]

18 minutes ago, kzb said:

All I am asking is why a border for goods puts the GFA at risk.  We are told it does and I just like to know exactly why.  There is no mention of single market.

https://medium.com/@JRogan3000/brexit-the-hard-border-and-the-good-friday-agreement-a-compendium-of-links-4bb30d750daf

[HairyOb1]

42 minutes ago, kzb said:

All I am asking is why a border for goods puts the GFA at risk.  We are told it does and I just like to know exactly why.  There is no mention of single market.

Because we were in the Single Market when it was signed.

[HairyOb1]

1 hour ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

1. 

Check my post, I said, "...but they didn't want to pay a penny more on their income tax or..." You know what or means and the purpose of an ellipsis. You replied to the 1p on tax and suggested tuitions fees. I then posed the question below in response to your tuition fees point.

The question was based on what you said and the fact that Remainers squandered a golden opportunity:

As I said, it's more nuanced than that, it's about trust, or a lack of it; they promised not to put tuition fees up, but did.  They swore off austerity, but jumped in bed with a party hell bent on it.

I can only have guessed what the OR was.  It wasn't because people didn't like the referendum offer, it's, reiterating, more nuanced than that.

Moving on:

I don't understand why 17m + Remainers didn't swing behind Farron to gain another referendum based on the depth of feeling portrayed on here. In the first days of the GE2017 campaign, can you imagine the blues and reds' reaction to a massive swing for Lib Dem?

How is that moving on?

IMHO, there's a slight possibility that a Remain option might still come about. If it doesn't, Remainers have to accept...

 

                                                                         

 

                                                                 ... and that house prices will go down.  

There are bound to be more opportunities that will come up to stop it.

2. That's an invisible outlier, 

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Invisible outlier.  Ok.

Now, if you will, if no one voted for the LibDems, and Conservatives are the party of Brexit, how has their support dwindled, Labour, who are pro custom union, has gone up and so has the LibDems in LE's

So if I can read your logic, then the very same logic is pointing out that people are moving their support to Non Brexit parties and parties who want closer integration with the EU than the Tories are offering, a customs union.  Going by your logic, you're arguing that people are changing their minds...

Edited March 12, 2018 by HairyOb1

[thehowler]

It's irrational to suggest that Labour are a "Non Brexit" party. They don't want to be in the Single Market. They just forced down a motion to stay in at the Scottish conference.

[OnionTerror]

12 minutes ago, thehowler said:

It's irrational to suggest that Labour are a "Non Brexit" party. They don't want to be in the Single Market. They just forced down a motion to stay in at the Scottish conference.

87% of Labour members want to stay in the SM...

https://labourlist.org/2018/01/labour-members-poll-over-75-per-cent-of-want-vote-on-brexit-deal-and-to-stay-in-single-market-and-customs-union/

[thehowler]

Plus the Labour version of a customs union has as many caveats and absurdly unrealistic demands as the Govt's position on post-Brexit EU relationship. They still want outside trade deals, FOM controls and state industry support - including forcing EDF out of the utility market as they've vowed to nationalise energy.

 

[thehowler]

2 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

87% of Labour members want to stay in the SM...

So why don't the leadership advocate it?

[OnionTerror]

Just now, thehowler said:

So why don't the leadership advocate it?

Because it doesn't know its **** from its elbow...They keep banging on about the customs union, which isn't necessary post-Brexit.

[thehowler]

2 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

Hoping this Russian thing brings the Tories down:

Three people almost killed and a community terrorized and your first thought is to make politics out of it.

[HairyOb1]

15 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Three people almost killed and a community terrorized and your first thought is to make politics out of it.

Not first thought, first comment on this thread, on this forum.  There's a difference between the real world and an internet forum.  No?

[HairyOb1]

29 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Because it doesn't know its **** from its elbow...They keep banging on about the customs union, which isn't necessary post-Brexit.

True, but I still think they're playing the long game; as opinion polls have shifted about how people feel about Brexit, as have their policies, and I still believe they'll change them further.

33 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Plus the Labour version of a customs union has as many caveats and absurdly unrealistic demands as the Govt's position on post-Brexit EU relationship. They still want outside trade deals, FOM controls and state industry support - including forcing EDF out of the utility market as they've vowed to nationalise energy.

Yes, but they've positioned themselves as an alternative vision to brexit, one that, as I said above, I believe will continue to evolve.  I also think there's mileage in some tories and centre ground Labour MP's breaking away.

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, kzb said:

 I have not read the Good Friday Agreement.

What are the precise issues with the GFA and movement of goods across the border?

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf

The GFA is the start of a long process that will lead to reunification of Ireland. There is no timescale for reunification but a sense that a process had started that will eventually result in this was vital to the success of the peace talks.

Core to the agreement is a sense of a shared Irish identity and having no borders between the North and South is key to this. Anything that gives even the sense of a physical border would undermine this and be contrary to the agreement.

The agreement was supported by 71% of the Irish people and, just to make clear that neither the British or Irish governments would ever go back on their word, enshrined in a formal treaty lodged with the United Nations.

So while it is inconvenient now that the UK government sighed a formal treaty without thinking of the possibility of us leaving the single market they did and it should be a treated as a constraint to the Brexit process. 

[HairyOb1]

10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

So while it is inconvenient now that the UK government sighed a formal treaty without thinking of the possibility of us leaving the single market they did and it should be a treated as a constraint to the Brexit process. 

This in a nutshell

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

3 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

And no comment on LE results of late?

Plus, if you want to play the historical game, Conservatives at the time, also had a polling percentage of 49%.

Using your logic, does that mean support for them has fallen due to their brexit stance, down 12%?

Labour now polling 20% higher than at the same time too, who have advocated staying in a Customs Union, so is their success down to their brexit stance change?

Well, I have already replied to you about LE's:

On ‎10‎/‎03‎/‎2018 at 11:43 PM, Sheeple Splinter said:

1. Cause and effect. Employer wants to pay as little as possible, tweak adverts to exploit loophole and then employ cheap labour from RoW. I'm sure the employer thinks it's xmas too. Similar M.O. to UK employers exploiting EU workers.

2. Yet, this thread is peppered with posts about the strength of feeling amongst Remainers for overturning the last referendum result. The LibDem campaign was focused on a 2nd Ref. and ..... 80+% voted for two Brexit parties. Actions speak louder than words. 

Based on the relationship between UKIP's local election seats and subsequent number of MP's, I don't think it is a strong predictor. Still, not long to wait...

Correcting a graceless poster is not a game. Stop making stuff up 

Polling percentages:

http://britainelects.com/polling/trackers/

[HairyOb1]

6 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Well, I have already replied to you about LE's:

Correcting a graceless poster is not a game. Stop making stuff up 

Polling percentages:

http://britainelects.com/polling/trackers/

You're ignoring the fact again.  They've improved their vote massively, fundamentally.  You're also STILL posing their issue as being a brexit one, yet ignoring the fact, according to your own polls linked, to a year ago, that the conservatives (the brexit party) have lost 12% of support, the Labour party (the soft brexit, if any brexit), has gained in this latest poll to the tune of 20% from a year ago, and LibDems are scoring 20-60% gains in Local elections.

You can't have your cake both ways SS; if your logic is right, then support for hard brexit is waning, and support for no brexit, or soft brexit is growing.  By your very own posts

And nice that you've left out todays poll from that graphic

Edited March 12, 2018 by HairyOb1

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 minute ago, HairyOb1 said:

You're ignoring the fact again.  They've improved their vote massively, fundamentally.  You're also STILL posing their issue as being a brexit one, yet ignoring the fact, according to your own polls linked, to a year ago, that the conservatives (the brexit party) have lost 12% of support, the Labour party (the soft brexit, if any brexit), has gained in this latest poll to the tune of 20% from a year ago, and LibDems are scoring 20-60% gains in Local elections.

You can't have your cake both ways SS; if your logic is right, then support for hard brexit is waning, and support for no brexit, or soft brexit is growing.  By your very own posts

 

I have been talking about another referendum and the LibDem silver bullet which Remainers failed to load.

You are confusing yourself with all this talk of logic; best not to make stuff up.

[Peter Hun]

9 hours ago, kzb said:

Well someone did state that the EU cannot punish member states.  I was presenting evidence to the contrary.

 

Fines are piss poor punishment.In Poland's case they have to give EU money back. Real punishment doesn't exist.

[GrizzlyDave]

6 hours ago, kzb said:

 I have not read the Good Friday Agreement.

What I have done is download the document and do Ctrl F to search for the words "border" and "customs".

The word "customs" is not found.  None of the "border" finds are relevant.

What are the precise issues with the GFA and movement of goods across the border?

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf

The GFA stabilises the irresolvable  positions of two different groups - and looks to ensure nothing changes (without a ref) the status quo. It’s implicit that a hard border changes that stability.

Edited March 13, 2018 by GrizzlyDave

[Sheeple Splinter]

Will Varoufakis be proved right? So far, so good:

Quote

 

The six Brexit traps that will defeat Theresa May

Two years ago Yanis Varoufakis led Greece’s failed attempt to negotiate with the EU. He explains how the Brussels establishment will do everything to frustrate and outmanoeuvre the British prime minister, using tactics ranging from truth reversal to ‘the Penelope ruse’

In truth, Brussels is a democracy-free zone. From the EU’s inception in 1950, Brussels became the seat of a bureaucracy administering a heavy industry cartel, vested with unprecedented law-making capacities. Even though the EU has evolved a great deal since, and acquired many of the trappings of a confederacy, it remains in the nature of the beast to treat the will of electorates as a nuisance that must be, somehow, negated. The whole point of the EU’s inter-governmental organisation was to ensure that only by a rare historical accident would democratic mandates converge and, when they did, never restrain the exercise of power in Brussels...

 

1. The EU runaround

2. Picking opponents

3. The Swedish national anthem routine

4. The Penelope ruse

5. Truth reversal

6. Sequencing

...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/the-six-brexit-traps-that-will-defeat-theresa-may

[ZeroSumGame]

3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The agreement was supported by 71% of the Irish people and, just to make clear that neither the British or Irish governments would ever go back on their word, enshrined in a formal treaty lodged with the United Nations.

I'll just highlight that for later reference.

And I'll just add this little tidbit....

Quote

Tory Brexiteer Liam Fox vows to fight Trump's steel tariffs... by 'working closely with the EU' 

Mirror

If you can't beat 'em - join 'em.

Edited March 13, 2018 by ZeroSumGame
Irony

[Sheeple Splinter]

50 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

The GFA stabilises the irresolvable  positions of two different groups - and looks to ensure nothing changes (without a ref) the status quo. It’s implicit that a hard border changes that stability.

Looking back:

Quote

...Last week David Cameron confirmed that border controls would be necessary – either as a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, or by way of checks at exit points between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Either solution would be disastrous for the province...

Bizarrely, the DUP – Northern Ireland’s leading political party – has been aggressively campaigning for a leave vote, with first minister Arlene Foster brushing off fears of border restrictions. Even the Northern Ireland secretary, Theresa Villiers, has jumped on the leave bandwagon, without making any viable suggestions as to how a post-Brexit Northern Ireland would work. In the absence of a cohesive plan, Sinn Fein has already begun proposing a new referendum for the unification of Ireland – a move that has the potential to undo all the hard work of the peace process, regardless of the result...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/21/northern-ireland-fear-brexit-conflict-good-friday-agreement-eu

WRT to a Border poll, this is an interesting read from Oct 2017:

Quote

...So in a NI Border Poll tomorrow a majority would support NI remaining in the UK. However, this margin i.e. 55/56% pro NI staying in UK is less than previous polls. Noticeably there are a high No. of Undecideds – but would be voters in such a poll i.e. at nearly 10% (i.e. 1 in 10 current voters are undecided). ...

https://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTOct17TrackerPoll-GeneralReport.pdf