GreenDevil

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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3 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

People are obsessed that Brexit is an event.  Its not.  Its going to be a long process.....at a guess, at least 8-10 years.  Perhaps longer..

We are destined to go down this vassal state that the EU are setting up for us, because we have categorically stated that we are leaving the single market now, but we want little to change after we leave.  We will leave the single market at some point, but there is much to untangle.  I think we could develop a genuine single market, not what we have now.   

I think leavers want to leave everything now, because they suspect we'll slip into hotel California...that we'll never leave.  Ironically, that is what will happen if we slip into vassal state status..Under EEA we leave on the 29th March 2019, and to be honest, its our only hope.. The NI border is almost sorted at a stroke for instance...

I understand your point about the vassal state.... because it is  natural result of no change except the status.

What do you mean by 'under eea we leave on thhe 29th march... its our only hope'       I dont understand what you are saying here?

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7 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I understand your point about the vassal state.... because it is  natural result of no change except the status.

What do you mean by 'under eea we leave on thhe 29th march... its our only hope'       I dont understand what you are saying here?

We are out of the EU on that date....We're not hanging around for the next ten years, technically being a member of the EU, but not..We'd have no voting rights, and we couldn't arrange our our own trade deals either....Much, much worse that what we have now...  People aren't seeing the bigger picture..

In reply to Michael Heaver, Editor of Westmonster...

 

Edited by Dave Beans

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5 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

People are obsessed that Brexit is an event.  Its not.  Its going to be a long process.....at a guess, at least 8-10 years.  Perhaps longer..

We are destined to go down this vassal state that the EU are setting up for us, because we have categorically stated that we are leaving the single market now, but we want little to change after we leave.  We will leave the single market at some point, but there is much to untangle.  I think we could develop a genuine single market, not what we have now.   

I think leavers want to leave everything now, because they suspect we'll slip into hotel California...that we'll never leave.  Ironically, that is what will happen if we slip into vassal state status..Under EEA we leave on the 29th March 2019, and its a shame that the "Norway option" has taken such a thrashing..but to be honest, its our only hope.. The NI border is almost sorted at a stroke for instance...I don't think the customs union is the be all and end all..There are ways around it.

It was already discussed on Wednesday in Brussel

 

Quote

 

Commission debates extending Brexit transition

But awkward questions remain: What happens if a final deal on trade and the U.K.’s future relationship with the EU is not completed by the end of a transition period? Won’t the likely transition terms just create another cliff edge for businesses and regulators a bit further down the line? The European Commission has not ruled out extending a Brexit transition period beyond 2020. Politico

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, rollover said:

It was already discussed on Wednesday in Brussel

 

 

 

Yep...this is what we are sleepwalking into...

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13 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

People are obsessed that Brexit is an event.  Its not.  Its going to be a long process.....at a guess, at least 8-10 years.  Perhaps longer..

We are destined to go down this vassal state that the EU are setting up for us, because we have categorically stated that we are leaving the single market now, but we want little to change after we leave.  We will leave the single market at some point, but there is much to untangle.  I think we could develop a genuine single market, not what we have now.   

I think leavers want to leave everything now, because they suspect we'll slip into hotel California...that we'll never leave.  Ironically, that is what will happen if we slip into vassal state status..Under EEA we leave on the 29th March 2019, and its a shame that the "Norway option" has taken such a thrashing..but to be honest, its our only hope.. The NI border is almost sorted at a stroke for instance...I don't think the customs union is the be all and end all..There are ways around it.

Your new edited version makes sense.

I have no issue with the norway option, other than it is a crap deal compared to what we have now. The only benefit is that it pacifies some mild brexiteers but leaves the hard brexiteers cold, mainly because of FoM.

There is no easy squaring the cirle here. 

I rather get to the point where we know what the Brexit deal really means and then let the public decide if that is what they though brexit meant when they voted for it. If they then decide that they want a hard bexit, then let them get on with it and learn the hard lessons... to missquote some great despot .... people have a right go be stupid, but the british may be about to abuse that privelege.

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13 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Yep...this is what we are sleepwalking into...

It is all that we deserve....due to the fact that rainbows and unicorns are not on anyones menu.

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5 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Your new edited version makes sense.

I have no issue with the norway option, other than it is a crap deal compared to what we have now. The only benefit is that it pacifies some mild brexiteers but leaves the hard brexiteers cold, mainly because of FoM.

There is no easy squaring the cirle here. 

I rather get to the point where we know what the Brexit deal really means and then let the public decide if that is what they though brexit meant when they voted for it. If they then decide that they want a hard bexit, then let them get on with it and learn the hard lessons... to missquote some great despot .... people have a right go be stupid, but the british may be about to abuse that privelege.

I voted remain, but after contemplating the result over the last year, and then looking at the Flexcit stuff, I think we can do much better away from the EU, if we were smart about it.  Perhaps I have had too much faith on our politicians.  I think we have a lousy political system, because of the EU.  It has taken much of the decision making on many areas, away from us.  We are sucking at the teat of the EU, and I think we need to weaned off it.

The EEA is a very malleable agreement, where much can be done in regards to FoM, or areas such as rules of origin, although I think it was the introduction of working tax credits that began the Brexit process.  

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On 1/11/2018 at 9:21 PM, macca13 said:

What a load of bullox.. the economy is crap because of immigration not because we don’t have enough of it.. slave labour and stagnant wages only benefit the elites.. That’s why 15 BTL properties, financed by big business Tony Blair wants it stopped.. more slaves, more poverty, worse living standards.. he loves it.. 

pay a low life like Blair enough money, put your hand your his bum and move his lips! 

 

CEDC78AD-1357-4019-8A3A-F0BF4ABB3E01.jpeg

 

 

maxresdefault.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

I voted remain, but after contemplating the result over the last year, and then looking at the Flexcit stuff, I think we can do much better away from the EU, if we were smart about it.  Perhaps I have had too much faith on our politicians.  I think we have a lousy political system, because of the EU.  It has taken much of the decision making on many areas, away from us.  We are sucking at the teat of the EU, and I think we need to weaned off it.

The EEA is a very malleable agreement, where much can be done in regards to FoM, or areas such as rules of origin, although I think it was the introduction of working tax credits that began the Brexit process.  

Please explain what this deal look like? How is it different to the norway option?

Edit: ive had a gut full of people blaming the eu for anything and everything, now you blame the eu for our crap political system....falling into the same trap.....why not blame our politicians?

Edited by IMHAL

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1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

Please explain what this deal look like? How is it different to the norway option?

Which deal?  The EEA has country specific protocols within it, depending on each country's situation..

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4 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Which deal?  The EEA has country specific protocols within it, depending on each country's situation..

What does it mean for us in our situation? How is it a way forward?

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1 hour ago, Dave Beans said:

A major part of the problem is that the vast amount of people do not know how the EU works....the amount of misinformation out there is painful...How many people can explain what a customs union is in the first place?, or what the single market actually is and what it does?  We have become totally ignorant.  For over 40 years, we have allowed the EU to dictate the rules, and we cannot even counter them, as we cannot even grasp the basics...

I thought we were supposed to be "taking back control"?  All I see is that the EU are doing all the running, and telling us what's what...with Farage bereft of any ideas, and retreating from reality, seeing as he's hiding behind this second referendum idea.  If it ever came to fruition, it could well destroy his life's work...

All we hear is that he wants Britain to become a "prosperous, independent country"...Now then Nigel, what does that actually mean?  Within the realms of reality...and what's possible...I'd like to know..

Wasn’t  ‘taking back control’  more of a populist/hard right spasm  ?   I don’t think it was about a practical coherent plan for Britain’s future. ‘What is the plan ?’ has been the repeated unanswered question presumably because there never really was one.

 

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4 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

What does it mean for us in our situation? How is it a way forward?

We could have protocols added, that could help control immigration, or where agricultural goods could submitted from EEA states to the single market...Much could be done...

It also means that on the 30th March 2019, we can start trade negotiations with all and sundry...

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1 hour ago, Dave Beans said:

Norway does not pay the EU for access to the single market.  It voluntarily pays for the joint EU agencies, such as Eurasmus..  

EEA countries are supported by the EFTA court, not by the ECJ...

ttps://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/single-market/id2507626/

But we want a financial services deal, that as far as I know several EU spokesmen will only be available if we are prepared to pay for it.

I thought EFTA followed ECoJ presidents in several areas, even if I am wrong I am not sure the average daily express reading Leave voter will differentiate between two foreign courts with European in their name.  

 

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6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

We could have protocols added, that could help control immigration, or where agricultural goods could submitted from EEA states to the single market...Much could be done...

It also means that on the 30th March 2019, we can start trade negotiations with all and sundry...

You are being sketchy with the details. Will we retain a tariff free market in goods and services with the eu? I

Why is this option , if it exists at all not been discuss asva mainstream option?

Edited by IMHAL

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14 minutes ago, pig said:

Wasn’t  ‘taking back control’  more of a populist/hard right spasm  ?   I don’t think it was about a practical coherent plan for Britain’s future. ‘What is the plan ?’ has been the repeated unanswered question presumably because there never really was one.

 

Dominic Cummings, Director of Vote leave stated "we don't need a plan"..even though he knew of the existence of Flexcit...

https://dominiccummings.com/2015/06/23/on-the-referendum-6-exit-plans-and-a-second-referendum/

He then has the audacity to roast David Davis about not having a plan...

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4 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You are being sketchy with the details. Will we retail a tariff free market in goods and services with the eu? 

Why is this option , if it exists at all not been discuss asva mainstream option?

Article 10 of the EEA agreement

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv:OJ.L_.1994.001.01.0003.01.ENG

Customs duties on imports and exports, and any charges having equivalent effect, shall be prohibited between the Contracting Parties. Without prejudice to the arrangements set out in Protocol 5, this shall also apply to customs duties of a fiscal nature.

 

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11 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

But we want a financial services deal, that as far as I know several EU spokesmen will only be available if we are prepared to pay for it.

I thought EFTA followed ECoJ presidents in several areas, even if I am wrong I am not sure the average daily express reading Leave voter will differentiate between two foreign courts with European in their name.  

 

Passporting is part of the EEA agreement (AFAIK)...

The EFTA court can look at ECJ rulings, but they don't have to follow them

https://www.ft.com/content/268fa1a2-ca2f-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e

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Proof that T.May is selling us out is the fact that EFTA is flat out better than the dire deal that she's negotiating.

EFTA would mean, no divorce bill, our fish is our fish, the ECJ has no jurisdiction, we are in the single market and would have to obey their rules - but not as interpreted by the ECJ, we are free to make trade deals with other nations, FOM under EFTA is free movement of labour not people (try and move to Norway without a job)...  You know, all the stuff that Barnier is saying is completely impossible.  No uncertainty either because it's off the shelf, EFTA made clear it's an option, pretty much just have to press the button.

It may not be a desirable end state.  Maybe it will be.  But it'll certainly do as a transition, yet David Davis and co have categorically ruled it out as a bad deal.  i'm dubious, given what I hear their alternative is going to be.  They want us in.

Edited by EUBanana

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8 minutes ago, EUBanana said:

Proof that T.May is selling us out is the fact that EFTA is flat out better than the dire deal that she's negotiating.

EFTA would mean, no divorce bill, our fish is our fish, the ECJ has no jurisdiction, we are in the single market and would have to obey their rules - but not as interpreted by the ECJ, we are free to make trade deals with other nations, FOM under EFTA is free movement of labour not people (try and move to Norway without a job)...  You know, all the stuff that Barnier is saying is completely impossible.  No uncertainty either because it's off the shelf, EFTA made clear it's an option, pretty much just have to press the button.

It may not be a desirable end state.  Maybe it will be.  But it'll certainly do as a transition, yet David Davis and co have categorically ruled it out as a bad deal.  i'm dubious, given what I hear their alternative is going to be.  They want us in.

Pretty much spot on, bar the bold.  The single market acquis has a two-pillar approach, thus EFTA/EEA states have a full say in shaping legislation.  

http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement/eea-basic-features#6

I'm also thinking that they want to keep us in....on the worst deal possible.

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44 minutes ago, EUBanana said:

Proof that T.May is selling us out is the fact that EFTA is flat out better than the dire deal that she's negotiating.

EFTA would mean, no divorce bill, our fish is our fish, the ECJ has no jurisdiction, we are in the single market and would have to obey their rules - but not as interpreted by the ECJ, we are free to make trade deals with other nations, FOM under EFTA is free movement of labour not people (try and move to Norway without a job)...  You know, all the stuff that Barnier is saying is completely impossible.  No uncertainty either because it's off the shelf, EFTA made clear it's an option, pretty much just have to press the button.

It may not be a desirable end state.  Maybe it will be.  But it'll certainly do as a transition, yet David Davis and co have categorically ruled it out as a bad deal.  i'm dubious, given what I hear their alternative is going to be.  They want us in.

It does seem to be the obvious, keep your options open, deal. 

The only reason I can see for it not being pursued is that the hard line Tory Brexiteers would rebel, as they would suspect it would become the end, rather than transition, state.  

NB I don't think it would avoid paying a divorce settlement. 

 

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4 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

We could have protocols added, that could help control immigration, or where agricultural goods could submitted from EEA states to the single market...Much could be done...

It also means that on the 30th March 2019, we can start trade negotiations with all and sundry...

You've been indoctrinated by loony propaganda from the Norths who have no credibility.  Flexcit is as much of a pipe dream as every other Brexit plan.

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6 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Pretty much spot on, bar the bold.  The single market acquis has a two-pillar approach, thus EFTA/EEA states have a full say in shaping legislation.  

http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement/eea-basic-features#6

I'm also thinking that they want to keep us in....on the worst deal possible.

Or, EU is just responding to the current option that UK voted for and at this moment still negotiating. Even now isn't clear what Br-exit means and what UK want to achieve as a whole. As days go by, it is still not clear if UK want to stay in - soft Brexit - or out - hard Brexit.

Edited by rollover

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8 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

We could have protocols added, that could help control immigration, or where agricultural goods could submitted from EEA states to the single market...Much could be done...

It also means that on the 30th March 2019, we can start trade negotiations with all and sundry...

Having a quick read of the EFTA - it seems that they are bound by the 4 freedoms - including FoM. Personally I like the Norway option as the best of the bad deals out there. If you think that we can wriggle out of migration then I fear you too are clutching at straws.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/efta-eea-why-hard-brexiteers-are-now-embracing-the-norway-brexit-model-2017-8

The biggest sticking point when it comes to the Norway model is what it would mean for immigration to the UK. All EEA members are required to accept the 'four freedoms', including the free movement of people. Again, this would be a tough pill to swallow for Westminster Brexiteers, and would likely trigger a backlash from Leave voters.

However, Article 112 of the EEA Agreement does allow non-EU member states to opt out from any of the four freedoms if they are facing serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties as a result of the freedoms. For example, Lichenstein used Article 112 to impose controls on EEA migration due to concerns regarding its modest size and whether it was able to handle a huge influx of people.

Norgrove concedes it is very unlikely Britain would be able to negotiate a similar opt-out. "I don't necessarily think the UK could arrange the same sort of thing," he said. This is a view shared by most academics and commentators.

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7 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Having a quick read of the EFTA - it seems that they are bound by the 4 freedoms - including FoM. Personally I like the Norway option as the best of the bad deals out there. If you think that we can wriggle out of migration then I fear you too are clutching at straws.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/efta-eea-why-hard-brexiteers-are-now-embracing-the-norway-brexit-model-2017-8

The biggest sticking point when it comes to the Norway model is what it would mean for immigration to the UK. All EEA members are required to accept the 'four freedoms', including the free movement of people. Again, this would be a tough pill to swallow for Westminster Brexiteers, and would likely trigger a backlash from Leave voters.

I think it's important to clarify what "immigration" means in these terms. You will never be able to stop people physically coming to the country (a tourist visa will allow a 3 month stay and you can do plenty of cash in hand work in 3 months, or longer if you choose to overstay).

The most likely compromise from the EU on FoM would be a way of limiting EU nationals access to benefits, particularly "in work" benefits.  The EU offered something like this to Cameron back in 2016: https://fullfact.org/europe/explaining-eu-deal-emergency-brake/

Because "in work" benefits are an oddity in the EU, it should be easier to position the UK as a special case deserving of special treatment in this area. If you added this to the existing EU rules that the UK has up until now chosen not to enforce (like having to find work within 6 months and having to show you have the financial resources to support yourself and your family when you arrive) and it would provide a meaningful difference to the current situation, but would still allow EU workers in the NHS, etc. 

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  • Brexit   463 members have voted

    1. 1. Since voting on the UK leaving the EU, have you reconsidered your position?


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