Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[sPinwheel]

11 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

This is the thing. Instead of leavers blaming the right people, they continue to pick at the imperfections of the EU (of which there are many).

My consistent view is how Brexit affects us? - the people and land of the UK.

How does a country survive without friends and allies? Without a good trade base? Without international close ties and cooperation? Without goodwill?

All of these things we are throwing into a pit to burn. Good luck with that little England.

Totally. As though the lack of a perfect system is good enough reason to wreck the lot....

[jonb2]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

We were discussing the logic behind voting.  People need to be fully informed so they can make an absolutely logical decision.

Yet here we have the Treasury dressing up a political exercise as something scientific.  When it is no such thing.

Yes there are some positive factors.  Control over tax avoidance, control over import tariffs, control over capital flow, bilateral trade arrangements, control of immigration of persons who cannot provide an economic benefit etc.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/six-times-theresa-vowed-crackdown-10468062

We have always been able to control the level of non-productive politicians

Bilateral trade agreements - who with and when???? Would you rather a deal with 500 million or 60 million poor people?

 

Capital flow after Brexit

Incoming - disaster selling of more assets to foreign countries

Outgoing - Firms leaving, people leaving.

 

Now about those advantages again K?

 

[Riedquat]

4 minutes ago, kzb said:

We were discussing the logic behind voting.  People need to be fully informed so they can make an absolutely logical decision.

Informed, yes, but people making such decisions purely on the basis of some logical criteria is a concern because it tends to miss the point - when you dig down far enough you reach the point where the supposedly logical criteria run headlong into the "why should I care about that?" question, and there's no logical answer to it. Ultimately all decisions are driven by sentiment, not logic, and when you start thinking otherwise you've probably not thought it through suffciently (clearly I'm talking about things that aren't purely technical matters here).

[Riedquat]

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

Capital flow after Brexit

Incoming - disaster selling of more assets to foreign countries

Outgoing - Firms leaving, people leaving.

 

Now about those advantages again K?

People leaving? There's one advantage.

[jonb2]

5 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

No, not at all. That's over-simplified black-and-white "it's the EU or the UK government" thinking, along with it's either "against or friends and allies." That black-and-white pigeonholed view is a problem. Does the EU also think that you can't leave it yet still be friends and allies with its members? Its supporters certainly give the impression that they think it's like that, and that certainly creates the impression that the EU is a problem, not a solution.

Have you or someone close to you ever been divorced RQ?

Ask how they get on with their ex and their ex's family?

Edited December 7, 2017 by jonb2

[Confusion of VIs]

18 minutes ago, kzb said:

Nobody (except perhaps the chief reptiles) have full knowledge.  People vote largely on tribal loyalties.

The Treasury Model let me remind everyone, did not include any positive Brexit factors as its inputs. 

Only the negative factors.  It is therefore absolutely logical that it output a negative overall effect.  What else would you expect?

Then they declined to go back and do a proper scientific job.  They knowingly ran a GIGO exercise and refused to do a proper job when found out.

And let me remind you that the Treasury model was not accepted by the pro Brexit Ministers who replaced Osborne's team. They were asked to redo the calculations in light of the delay in invoking A50 and the actions taken to avoid a post vote recession, they did this but to date have decided that there is no reason to change their medium/long term forecast.

Given the way things are proceeding they may soon want to revise their forecast downwards to take account of a no deal scenario. 

As for the positive factors, what are they . it is pretty clear now that we will have to choose tregularity alignment with either the EU or the US. By now it must be clear that the dream of the UK as some sort of economic superpower able to trade with the world on its own term is pure fantasy.

So in the end the choice will boil down to accept ongoing regularity alignment with the EU (i.e. become a rule taker) or break with the EU and align ourselves with the US (twenty years of economic disruption to join a relatively distant market and become even more of a rule taker).

   

  

[jonb2]

1 minute ago, Riedquat said:

People leaving? There's one advantage.

You think?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/01/09/universities-may-face-brain-drain-brexit-new-survey-reveals/

[pig]

13 minutes ago, kzb said:

We were discussing the logic behind voting.  People need to be fully informed so they can make an absolutely logical decision.

Yet here we have the Treasury dressing up a political exercise as something scientific.  When it is no such thing.

Yes there are some positive factors.  Control over tax avoidance, control over import tariffs, control over capital flow, bilateral trade arrangements, control of immigration of persons who cannot provide an economic benefit etc.

Are you the poster insisting the UK collapsed when it joined the EU ?

[kzb]

4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

And let me remind you that the Treasury model was not accepted by the pro Brexit Ministers who replaced Osborne's team. They were asked to redo the calculations in light of the delay in invoking A50 and the actions taken to avoid a post vote recession, they did this but to date have decided that there is no reason to change their medium/long term forecast.

<EDIT>

   

  

OK so they re-ran the model with delayed A50 invocation and with reduced interest rate and QE.  Were those the only factors that were changed?

In reality would not these very capable people not run the model varying all relevant parameters? 

I suspect they have done this, but we the public only know the output from runs where only negatives were input.

[Confusion of VIs]

10 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

No, not at all. That's over-simplified black-and-white "it's the EU or the UK government" thinking, along with it's either "against or friends and allies." That black-and-white pigeonholed view is a problem. Does the EU also think that you can't leave it yet still be friends and allies with its members? Its supporters certainly give the impression that they think it's like that, and that certainly creates the impression that the EU is a problem, not a solution.

There are no friends in global politics just shared interests. 

It is not in the EU's interest to let the UK become a back door into the single market, so unless we agree a deal that includes regulatory alignment and ongoing payment into the programs that support the single market we will be treated like any other third country.

Likewise the US has already told us in black and white terms that if we want a comprehensive trade deal we will need to accept regularity alignment with the US.

 

[Riedquat]

14 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Have you or someone close to you ever been divorced RQ?

Ask how they get on with their ex and their ex's family?

Even viewing that as a reasonable analogy speaks volumes about the issue with the EU, that it had gone far too far and we were in far too deep. The "leaving a club" analogy is better, no reason for that to be acrimonious and if it is it says more about the club than the person leaving it (and even then there's still no reason at all why you shouldn't be able to get along with the members afterwards).

[Riedquat]

3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There are no friends in global politics just shared interests. 

It is not in the EU's interest to let the UK become a back door into the single market, so unless we agree a deal that includes regulatory alignment and ongoing payment into the programs that support the single market we will be treated like any other third country.

Likewise the US has already told us in black and white terms that if we want a comprehensive trade deal we will need to accept regularity alignment with the US.

Yes, those attitudes exist widly, and cause a great number of problems in the world, and therefore get as much respect as they deserve. Fortunately it's not quite as black and white as that though.

[rollover]

54 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I see.

 

It looks like he wanted to do harakiri.

 

Hotel California from Eagles come to mind:

" And in the master's chambers,
They gathered for the feast
They stab it with their steely knives,
But they just can't kill the beast."

Edited December 7, 2017 by rollover

[pig]

15 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Even viewing that as a reasonable analogy speaks volumes about the issue with the EU, that it had gone far too far and we were in far too deep. The "leaving a club" analogy is better, no reason for that to be acrimonious and if it is it says more about the club than the person leaving it (and even then there's still no reason at all why you shouldn't be able to get along with the members afterwards).

It’s bit of a superfluous analogy as you just have to read the MSM over the last few decades. Wife-beating coward maybe ?

Regarding the club analogy you conveniently forgot to mention  the bit about the person leaving wanting to carry on using the clubs facilities. 

[IMHAL]

11 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Yes, those attitudes exist widly, and cause a great number of problems in the world, and therefore get as much respect as they deserve. Fortunately it's not quite as black and white as that though.

What part of it isn't black and white? You are not actually responding to the statement - are you being deliberately vague?

My understanding that if you want a trade deal - then regulatory allignment goes hand in hand. So we need to allign with the EU or the US or whoever we choose to - but we will have to do it - there is no getting out of it. Trade does not work on good will alone, the utopia that exists in your head is not real and never will be.

[ccc]

3 hours ago, IMHAL said:

I am interested to know what 'it' is?. It appears that the UK government cannot decide what an acceptable 'it' is and most onlookers cannot figure out if the UK government knows themselves what 'it' is.

So - lets just get on with 'it' has no meaning.

Analogy - the UK held a referendum 'should be buy a car' and the result was yes. Now the governement have to decide which car they want - but, it turns out they actually need a 80seat car, commonly known as a bus. So they go round and round in circles asking for a 80 seat car - and to their surprise no one can supply one. BUT they feel that they MUST buy a car because the public voted for a car and not a bus as the public will not accept a bus- except that an 80 seat car does not exist - thats BREXIT. So eventually the government will come back to the UK public with a bus and tells them it really, really, really is a 80 seat car, its got a smokin stereo and everyfink- and the UK public will accept it.

Obviously, it would be a second hand bus and the '£350 million to the NHS' on the side of the bus would have to be over sprayed

'It' is an embarassment.

Leaving the EU.

[Confusion of VIs]

19 minutes ago, kzb said:

OK so they re-ran the model with delayed A50 invocation and with reduced interest rate and QE.  Were those the only factors that were changed?

In reality would not these very capable people not run the model varying all relevant parameters? 

I suspect they have done this, but we the public only know the output from runs where only negatives were input.

The earlier model was run with what the politicians told them what would happen after the vote, A50 the next day everything else unchanged. Apart from that they were free to make any assumptions they liked about the longer term impact of Brexit. The meme that they were only allowed to include negatives is just Leaver spin on that position.

Anyway they were asked to update in light of the delayed A50, £250bn of liquidity injected into the market after the vote, extra £60bn of QE, emergency interest rate cut and increased spending plans that delay clearing the deficit for another 5-10 years.

They have done this and said that they see no need to .change their medium/long term forecast. Essentially saying that all the above has achieved is to kick the can a year or two down the road.

The idea you think the government is hiding good news is just bizarre 

NB Independent forecasters not subject to any constraints on their models are making similar predictions. The OECD thinks that Brexit has already cost the UK more than our EU subscription. So even that potential positive has gone. 

 

 

 

[Riedquat]

12 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

What part of it isn't black and white? You are not actually responding to the statement - are you being deliberately vague?

My understanding that if you want a trade deal - then regulatory allignment goes hand in hand. So we need to allign with the EU or the US or whoever we choose to - but we will have to do it - there is no getting out of it. Trade does not work on good will alone, the utopia that exists in your head is not real and never will be.

What nonsense. The world is full of countries that have trade deals and don't share regulations. You have to meet the regulations of any product you sell to another country of course, and there'll be wrangling about how much you change your own rules to get a deal (since stuff should go in both directions), but you appear to be saying "This is how things are and this is how they can only be." One set of absolute rules, always applied.

[IMHAL]

1 minute ago, ccc said:

Leaving the EU.

Is CCC short for Circular, Circular, Circular in ever decreasing....... circles.

[Far Canal]

According to the responses it appears I am either racist, stupid or want to commit suicide for voting Leave?

Patronising much?

I had the audacity to use my vote and apparently I did it wrong.

 

What has Remain or Leave got to do with houseprices? Which one is going to lower houseprices?

 

[Confusion of VIs]

32 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Yes, those attitudes exist widly, and cause a great number of problems in the world, and therefore get as much respect as they deserve. Fortunately it's not quite as black and white as that though.

It's looking pretty black and white at the moment.

if successful implementation of a plan relies on changing the way the world thinks, you probably need a different plan.

[Riedquat]

16 minutes ago, pig said:

It’s bit of a superfluous analogy as you just have to read the MSM over the last few decades. Wife-beating coward maybe ?

Regarding the club analogy you conveniently forgot to mention  the bit about the person leaving wanting to carry on using the clubs facilities. 

Oh not that "use the facilities" line again, when "use the facilities" appears to be "have any relationship whatsoever with members of the club." By that logic a typical club wouldn't have any relationship whatsoever with any other organistion. No co-operation with any other clubs, not even bringing outside help to mend its leaky roof.

[IMHAL]

2 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

What nonsense. The world is full of countries that have trade deals and don't share regulations. You have to meet the regulations of any product you sell to another country of course, and there'll be wrangling about how much you change your own rules to get a deal (since stuff should go in both directions), but you appear to be saying "This is how things are and this is how they can only be." One set of absolute rules, always applied.

Do you realise what you have just said?

[ccc]

1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

Is CCC short for Circular, Circular, Circular in ever decreasing....... circles.

Its not up to me how we do it. That's up to the tools that run this country. We voted to leave the EU. Lets do it. What's so difficult about that to understand ?

1 minute ago, Far Canal said:

According to the responses it appears I am either racist, stupid or want to commit suicide for voting Leave?

Patronising much?

I had the audacity to use my vote and apparently I did it wrong.

 

What has Remain or Leave got to do with houseprices? Which one is going to lower houseprices?

 

Get used to it. You are now officially a racist and a xenophobe.

[Riedquat]

Just now, Confusion of VIs said:

It's looking pretty black and white at the moment.

if successful implementation of a plan relies on changing the way the world thinks, you probably need a different plan.

There's a lot of it like that unfortunately but you'd have to be very cynical indeed to regard every bit of international relations as being motivated entirely by self-interest and wanting to get one over everyone else. There's a great deal of that of course but it's not the only thing going on.