GreenDevil

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Earlier today Mogg was explaining how we were going to make a go of Brexit, apparently protectionism will go and there will be an intensification of competition which will generate vast additional wealth £135bn between 2020 and 2025. No details how were given but I think it probably translates as by making the 99% work much harder to survive while getting rid of all that worker protection and eco cr@p.  

When high profile Tories talk about "intensified competition", it only means one thing.

Full-on NHS privatisation.

It's the only thing in public ownership / receiving significant public funds left to milk.

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31 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Again, I voted remain.

Id treat tresury estimates for  10-15 years in the future as total BS. Really not worth the effort trying to calculate and pay for someone.

Like all forecasts it's just a central case based on a list of assumptions that may or not prove valid.

However, it does indicate that for us not to be significantly worse off a lot assumption would have to be very wrong, with an equal chance of things turning out much worse than forecast.  

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1 hour ago, knock out johnny said:

Simple is as simple does:rolleyes:

Well it is simple. Stay or leave. That was the question. Did you expect every person voting to sit down and spend 3 months constructing a detailed analysis of what the specific positives and negatives of each decision will be ? That's just not possible.

This constant bringing up by a number on here of 'Leaving the EU wont sort out Westminster' is a total waste of time. That's not what people voted for.

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28 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Like all forecasts it's just a central case based on a list of assumptions that may or not prove valid.

However, it does indicate that for us not to be significantly worse off a lot assumption would have to be very wrong, with an equal chance of things turning out much worse than forecast.  <<<OR MUCH BETTER THAN FORECAST>>>

Why didn't you bother to include the above ? :rolleyes:

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3 minutes ago, ccc said:

Well it is simple. Stay or leave. That was the question. Did you expect every person voting to sit down and spend 3 months constructing a detailed analysis of what the specific positives and negatives of each decision will be ? That's just not possible.

This constant bringing up by a number on here of 'Leaving the EU wont sort out Westminster' is a total waste of time. That's not what people voted for.

Your response is hilarious in it's naivete - fortunately some of the adults are now talking

How's the Tesco shelfspace vigil going:lol:

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32 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Like all forecasts it's just a central case based on a list of assumptions that may or not prove valid.

However, it does indicate that for us not to be significantly worse off a lot assumption would have to be very wrong, with an equal chance of things turning out much worse than forecast.  

No, according to that Budget for Brexit article, the Treasury model turns out to be just another piece of propaganda.  I think this point stands whatever else we might think of Minford et al.

To repeat, the Treasury model left out the very Brexit factors that would improve the economy.  It was set up to show a loss

No account taken of reduced import duties, nor of other important factors.

GIGO in other words.

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7 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

Your response is hilarious in it's naivete - fortunately some of the adults are now talking

How's the Tesco shelfspace vigil going:lol:

So you don't have a response to my actual point ? How unexpected. :rolleyes:

This thread Is a waste of time anyway. I shall leave you lot to go around and around and around.

 

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Just now, ccc said:

So you don't have a response to my actual point ? How unexpected. :rolleyes:

This thread Is a waste of time anyway. I shall leave you lot to go around and around and around.

 

You saw my response - I said your naivete was hilarious

And you'll get the same response each time you post the same simplistic nonsense - but do carry on

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4 minutes ago, ccc said:

So you don't have a response to my actual point ? How unexpected. :rolleyes:

This thread Is a waste of time anyway. I shall leave you lot to go around and around and around.

 

Arguing about the effects of Brexit is like arguing about next weeks weather. You'll know when it happens.

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55 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

However, it does indicate that for us not to be significantly worse off a lot assumption would have to be very wrong, with an equal chance of things turning out much worse than forecast.  

Define "significantly worse off."

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13 minutes ago, kzb said:

No, according to that Budget for Brexit article, the Treasury model turns out to be just another piece of propaganda.  I think this point stands whatever else we might think of Minford et al.

To repeat, the Treasury model left out the very Brexit factors that would improve the economy.  It was set up to show a loss

No account taken of reduced import duties, nor of other important factors.

GIGO in other words.

I agree It was based upon assumption some of which were ridiculous - A50 invoked immediately  and no action to mitigate impact from the BoE. 

However Osborne has now gone and the Treasury will have considered the criticism of their report and has been given several chances to revise their forecast but have declined. Presumably because they think it is still valid. 

Minford's piece was full of basic maths errors and everything that has happened to date re the difficulty of the UK replacing its existing trade deals makes it look even more of a fantasy. 

 

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42 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

Your response is hilarious in it's naivete - fortunately some of the adults are now talking

How's the Tesco shelfspace vigil going:lol:

:lol:

He's worried that there's an aisle dedicated to Italian food now.  Been there for years, not going away, showing that EU migrations out of control. :lol::lol:

33 minutes ago, ccc said:

This thread Is a waste of time anyway. I shall leave you lot to go around and around and around.

Image included for you ccc

11 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 1-2% would be significant,  5% is massive. 

Well £5k per household, given average earnings are about £50k if 2 folk are working, makes that 10%....

b7e25fa22dca8ec487740e5e70bf708175d05d22b29e87926d2ef62a6778f043.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Define "significantly worse off."

Significantly worse off depends on the amount of disposable income you have. If you are on the bread line then any increase of prices will have a significant and deliterious effect. The more disposable income you have the less significant the effect will be.

You think Brexit is good and fine therefore I suppose you have success criteria - what are they?

Also, lets say for arguements sake that Brexit does not go well - what would be the keys things that define it as a failure for you?

 

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It was all so easy, all we had to do is leave the EU. But wait! Now we are hearing from prominent Brexit supporters that there are a few additional steps required before the unicorns and rainbows arrive.

It's simple, all we need to do is cut regulation, cut corporation tax to zero and then the magic happens...

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/sir-james-dyson-brexit_uk_5a08336fe4b01d21c83eff64

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/jacob-rees-mogg-hard-brexit-would-boost-uk-by-135bn-over-5-years

It it talks like a neoliberal, if it cuts regulations like a neoliberal and if it quacks like a neoliberal, then it is a neoliberal. 

And some posters on here blame the EU and claim that it is the source of neoliberal ideas in the UK. :lol:

The only thing funnier will be look on the faces of the voters of Burnley and Sunderland when they meet their new replacements from India and get their 3 days notice, then find out that the benefits system was mothballed just after the NHS was sold off!

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Again, I voted remain.

Id treat tresury estimates for  10-15 years in the future as total BS. Really not worth the effort trying to calculate and pay for someone.

Having just finished "The Black Swan", I heartily agree. Completely pointless.

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1 minute ago, Futuroid said:

The only thing funnier will be look on the faces of the voters of Burnley and Sunderland when they meet their new replacements from India and get their 3 days notice, then find out that the benefits system was mothballed just after the NHS was sold off!

I think when that particular penny sinks in, we'll have even more whining from them than we do currently.  I give you Grimsby - No, we want to leave, now.  Sorry, what do you mean it will cost most of us our jobs?  OK, we want YOU to leave now, whilst we get a transition deal and special arrangement with the EU.

No, sorry, but I have to start giggling at that, and Cornwall getting all patriotic, until they've woken up to rotting crops in the fields and a shortfall in labour, let alone the decimation of their own fishing fleets.

As I said, be careful what you wish for...

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8 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

It was all so easy, all we had to do is leave the EU. But wait! Now we are hearing from prominent Brexit supporters that there are a few additional steps required before the unicorns and rainbows arrive.

It's simple, all we need to do is cut regulation, cut corporation tax to zero and then the magic happens...

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/sir-james-dyson-brexit_uk_5a08336fe4b01d21c83eff64

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/jacob-rees-mogg-hard-brexit-would-boost-uk-by-135bn-over-5-years

It it talks like a neoliberal, if it cuts regulations like a neoliberal and if it quacks like a neoliberal, then it is a neoliberal. 

And some posters on here blame the EU and claim that it is the source of neoliberal ideas in the UK. :lol:

The only thing funnier will be look on the faces of the voters of Burnley and Sunderland when they meet their new replacements from India and get their 3 days notice, then find out that the benefits system was mothballed just after the NHS was sold off!

Well of course, we'll be the centre of no regulation, private healthcare and tax avoidance, meanwhile in the EU

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/paradise-papers-eu-tax-avoidance-vampires-pierre-moscovici-a8053926.html#gallery

Have not heard any Tory even mention them in the last few days. Strange that. Maybe we should dare to ask an expert, Rees-Mogg?

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24 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Significantly worse off depends on the amount of disposable income you have. If you are on the bread line then any increase of prices will have a significant and deliterious effect. The more disposable income you have the less significant the effect will be.

You think Brexit is good and fine therefore I suppose you have success criteria - what are they?

Also, lets say for arguements sake that Brexit does not go well - what would be the keys things that define it as a failure for you?

Success is out of the EU without being significantly worse off. I wasn't talking about significant to me individually but across the entire country.

CofVI's 1-2% sounds negligable. How far back do you go to a point where the country that less well off than it is now? Don't recall life being awful then. 2% growth gets people handwringing about it being hardly any, but a drop by the equivalent amount (OK that's the other way around, a 2% fall isn't the same absolute number difference as a 2% rise, but it's not that different) is a disaster? Or is it falling 2% year on year forever? That would be bad, but implausible.

Edited by Riedquat

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1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

Success is out of the EU without being significantly worse off. I wasn't talking about significant to me individually but across the entire country.

CofVI's 1-2% sounds negligable. How far back do you go to a point where the country that less well off than it is now? Don't recall life being awful then. 2% growth gets people handwringing about it being hardly any, but a drop by the equivalent amount (OK that's the other way around, a 2% fall isn't the same absolute number difference as a 2% rise, but it's not that different) is a disaster? Or is it falling 2% year on year forever? That would be bad, but implausible.

The first thing that happened after we joined the EEC in 1973 was GDP contracted by 4%. 

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1 minute ago, kzb said:

The first thing that happened after we joined the EEC in 1973 was GDP contracted by 4%. 

Oh will you just piss off with this shite kdb, you're just using this as a stick to beat the EEC with when the truth is we were shagged in 1972, as I have proven many times you've brought this nonsense up.

I wish you'd give this shit up as it makes you look stupid.  If that's the look you wish to portray, then please carry on.

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1 hour ago, kzb said:

The first thing that happened after we joined the EEC in 1973 was GDP contracted by 4%. 

So GDP should expand by 4% in 2019 then!

It's Brexinomics / Numberwang.

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6 hours ago, Errol said:

I'd be more worried about you, to be honest. Anyone who thinks that Farage is Russia's 'point man' is clearly misguided in the extreme.

He's been anti-EU since at least the mid-1980s from public records, so it would be some stretch to say his entire UKIP/Brexit/anti-EU stance was engineered by Russia. 

This nonsense is just too funny. And luckily everyone else is seeing it as joke as well ('RUSSIANS!!!!!').

Are you a ‘point man’ for Russia ?

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