Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Peter Hun]

32 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Fake news.

Don't say that, it makes you sound like an idiot.

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Why the Government must prepare for no deal now.

As the dust settles on the Prime Minister’s speech in Florence and the media moves on, there remains a need to start to fill in the grey areas of the Government’s Brexit policy – particularly the options on the setting and delivery of the agenda.

Under the rules of Article 50, the UK leaves the EU at the very end of March 2019 with – or, just as importantly, without – settled arrangements concerning the UK’s or the EU’s future relationship. The only way to change this timetable is for all 27 EU nations (plus the UK) and the EU Parliament to agree. This means unless there is some new agreement, the UK will outside the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), and also outside the Single Market and the Customs Union. conservativehome

 

Some still hope for hard Exit. But as the things stand now, no time no clear plan, the only realistic way how to deliver it is cliff edge crash at the very end of March 2019 with all the consequences slap on.

[HairyOb1]

11 hours ago, highYield said:

Yay! That's much better. Thank you.

Now, imagine a country where access to education depends on the wealth of your parents, in turn often a result of the wealth of previous generations. The wealthiest 0.02%* pay for their children to make the contacts & friends that set them up for life, too often in positions running the country.

IMO, it's surprise that more of the rest of us, the 99.98%, didn't take the 2nd chance most of us have had in our lives to vote for change - and responsibility for our leaders.

* Eton pupils 1,300 13-18 , UK population of 13-18 year olds about 5,000,000  

I come from a very working class background, father Senior NCO in the army and retired to be a janitor.  I have 3 degrees (2 B.Sc's and an M.Sc) and a very good lifestyle; I'll not go on too much, but I think it's hackneyed to say access to education depends on the wealth of your parents; my first degree was free and the rest was all on me, and a company I worked for.  If you are intelligent, you will, if you want to, work yourself to the top.  One of my very best friends has no qualifications and is a director at a Formula 1 company.

What a top private school does do, is give you connections, I'll agree to that, but there's still routes to the top if you work hard.  Our ex local MP is married to a local farmer.  The nearest other one is Mogg.  Times are changing, and they'll change more, as the previous generation dies out and the millennial get more vocal.

Obviously IMO.

[HairyOb1]

1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Indeed.

It doesn’t say who produced it or where the data came from.

Fake news.

Must admit, I thought you were better than this...

[OnionTerror]

38 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

Some still hope for hard Exit. But as the things stand now, no time no clear plan, the only realistic way how to deliver it is cliff edge crash at the very end of March 2019 with all the consequences slap on.

We could well walk out much earlier, if Mrs May flounces...perhaps even before we reach stage 2..

[rollover]

1 minute ago, Dave Beans said:

We could well walk out much earlier, if Mrs May flounces...perhaps even before we reach stage 2..

We could, but do we want to?

[OnionTerror]

1 minute ago, rollover said:

We could, but do we want to?

She'll want to look tough at the tory conference...

Edited September 26, 2017 by Dave Beans

[dugsbody]

10 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

She'll want to look tough at the tory conference...

Operative word being "look". They're all talk and bluster, pandering to the swivel eyed nationalists. But at the end of the day they are politicians and know the public are fickle. Walk off the cliff edge and there will be guaranteed chaos and recession, the Tories will be out on their arses next election.

It is pretty obvious the transition deal proposal was a political move. We do need it, but May has positioned her proposal in such a way that she can still claim she's pursuing (hard|soft|red|white|blue) brexit and also sets it up nicely so that she can blame the inflexible EU for not giving us what we want. And of course, the public, needing to find enemies outside of "us" will be happy to accept this. Anything other than introspection, it's so much easier that way.

[Guest]

10 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What country might that be. Do you know any country that doesn't have a "top school".

The vote split didn't reflect membership of some wealthy elite. The crossover point was at a fairly low level of education, most likely just enough to see through the claims of both sides. A C in GCSE Maths should have been enough to see the membership bill issue for the irrelevancy it was.        

I don't know of any other country that has such an entrenched class system (India maybe?) - or a single school where such a high proportion of ex-pupils become leaders. Maybe some African countries have a similar sized gulf in outcomes from going to Eton vs an inner city sink school?

The only other countries I know much about are France and Switzerland. In France, the grandes écoles dominate - but at least entry to them is based on academic performance, not wealth of parents. In Switzerland everyone goes to the local school (they still have a sense of community there), foreign expats send their kids to international schools in the cities, and there are a few ultra exclusive schools for billionaire Russians.

I'm personally sceptical of the Remainer theory that a lack of education resulted in enough people to really make a difference believing some numbers on a BIG RED BUS - is there any study that relates educational attainment to knowing that many/most politicians are self serving liars?

Warren Buffet has an interesting view: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/warren-buffett-is-right-ban-private-schools_b_1857287.html

Quote

What if I said to you that the solution to the problems in our education system would be to “make private schools illegal and assign every child to a [state] school by random lottery”?

That’s the view not of Karl Marx or the Chinese Communist Party but of the billionaire US investor and philanthropist Warren Buffett. The “Sage of Omaha” has been a longstanding campaigner for equality of opportunity and social mobility - and sees the existence of private schools as a major barrier to both. For Buffett, the fact that a tiny minority of wealthy families can choose to opt out of the state sector, and send their children to expensive and elite private schools, has a negative impact on the overall education of the vast majority of students whose families cannot afford to do the same.

I wonder if many poorly educated Leavers voted for change partly due to the gulf in available education in the UK?

Edited September 26, 2017 by Guest

[Guest]

1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

I come from a very working class background, father Senior NCO in the army and retired to be a janitor.  I have 3 degrees (2 B.Sc's and an M.Sc) and a very good lifestyle; I'll not go on too much, but I think it's hackneyed to say access to education depends on the wealth of your parents; my first degree was free and the rest was all on me, and a company I worked for.  If you are intelligent, you will, if you want to, work yourself to the top.  One of my very best friends has no qualifications and is a director at a Formula 1 company.

What a top private school does do, is give you connections, I'll agree to that, but there's still routes to the top if you work hard.  Our ex local MP is married to a local farmer.  The nearest other one is Mogg.  Times are changing, and they'll change more, as the previous generation dies out and the millennial get more vocal.

Obviously IMO.

Obviously there are exceptions, talented and driven people will often succeed even with relatively little opportunity.

Then you have George Osborne - former towel folder; now advisor to BlackRock, editor of the Standard, Chairman of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, fellow at the McCain Institute, honorary professor of economics at the University of Manchester, and after-dinner speaker for the Washington Speakers Bureau.

Edited September 26, 2017 by Guest
spellcheck gone into overdrive

[rollover]

1 hour ago, Dave Beans said:

She'll want to look tough at the tory conference...

It's hard to come back when you are scoring own-goals, especially when you play against better organized opponent.

[Futuroid]

2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Don't say that, it makes you sound like an idiot.

Yup. A specific sub-class of idiot... a trumpette.

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Eurocrat Donald Tusk heads to London for crunch talks with Theresa May

According to a European Council sources, Mr Tusk will tell Mrs May any decision on Brexit talks moving to the next phase of negotiations will be taken on the basis of “actual progress at the negotiation table”. He will discuss progress with the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier before heading to Downing Street.

But Mr Barnier insisted real progress on the divorce bill, citizens' rights and the Irish border was "essential" to move on the discussions. He said he was "keen and eager" to understand how the Prime Minister's speech would be turned into a negotiating strategy.

He said: ”We do not need to remind ourselves that we are six months into the process. Express

 

Yes six months,  time is flying!

[casual_squash]

17 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Merkel wouldn't have saved the UK anyway. The writing is clearly on the wall that the integrity and ideals of the EU won't be compromised in the interest of a former member or short termism.

This was commented on not long after referendum anyway, in that internal strife within the EU was predicted to just overtake any Brexit problems anyway and it won't take much for this to happen, especially within a Proportional Representative Europe.

The German results are a prime example, the AFD with only 13% of the vote has now hobbled the Bundestag. Already the reality of the practically of a Jamaican coalition (or lack of) is sinking in. 

Then the next real canary will undoubtedly be the next Italian Election, which at the very least will produce a similar problem of a hobbled Italian government. 

I've always maintained the British establishment would quickly fail to see the woods for the trees in Brexit. Our remain dominant parliament will turn itself inside out arguing the toss about our future EU status all the while ignoring the very thing they want to remain part of is fragmenting.  

I think people will find talk of brexit will become increasingly redundant when the default position will eventually end up being hard brexit before any 'transitional' period of leaving comes to an end anyway. 

 

 

 

[GrizzlyDave]

2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Don't say that, it makes you sound like an idiot.

Ah come on, I was just having a laugh ;-)

 

1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

Must admit, I thought you were better than this...

 

[GrizzlyDave]

5 minutes ago, casual_squash said:

This was commented on not long after referendum anyway, in that internal strife within the EU was predicted to just overtake any Brexit problems anyway and it won't take much for this to happen, especially within a Proportional Representative Europe.

The German results are a prime example, the AFD with only 13% of the vote has now hobbled the Bundestag. Already the reality of the practically of a Jamaican coalition (or lack of) is sinking in. 

Then the next real canary will undoubtedly be the next Italian Election, which at the very least will produce a similar problem of a hobbled Italian government. 

I've always maintained the British establishment would quickly fail to see the woods for the trees in Brexit. Our remain dominant parliament will turn itself inside out arguing the toss about our future EU status all the while ignoring the very thing they want to remain part of is fragmenting.  

I think people will find talk of brexit will become increasingly redundant when the default position will eventually end up being hard brexit before any 'transitional' period of leaving comes to an end anyway. 

 

 

 

Perhaps, I do think the coming financial crisis will be a disaster for the Eurozone, and punching out on our British made world class ejector Seat (Martin Baker) will allow us to respond and adapt quicker and better.

[Futuroid]

4 minutes ago, casual_squash said:

This was commented on not long after referendum anyway, in that internal strife within the EU was predicted to just overtake any Brexit problems anyway and it won't take much for this to happen, especially within a Proportional Representative Europe.

The German results are a prime example, the AFD with only 13% of the vote has now hobbled the Bundestag. Already the reality of the practically of a Jamaican coalition (or lack of) is sinking in. 

Then the next real canary will undoubtedly be the next Italian Election, which at the very least will produce a similar problem of a hobbled Italian government. 

I've always maintained the British establishment would quickly fail to see the woods for the trees in Brexit. Our remain dominant parliament will turn itself inside out arguing the toss about our future EU status all the while ignoring the very thing they want to remain part of is fragmenting.  

I think people will find talk of brexit will become increasingly redundant when the default position will eventually end up being hard brexit before any 'transitional' period of leaving comes to an end anyway. 

 

 

 

Oh wow, it's the "the EU is going to disintegrate" line again. Good job dusting that one off - haven't heard it for a while!

The EU isn't fragmenting just because a few nutters get 13% of the vote in Germany. Let's not forget that UKIP, our own "far right" party got 12% of the vote in the 2015 general election.

If you are looking for fragmented, look no further that the UK a country split down the MIDDLE on the vote for the EU, and unable to deliver a majority for any party even until the FPTP system. Then you have the Scottish independence question, the Ireland / NI problem and the north south divide. I cannot think of a country in modern history that is less united than the Disunited Queendom.

[pig]

25 minutes ago, highYield said:

I don't know of any other country that has such an entrenched class system (India maybe?) - or a single school where such a high proportion of ex-pupils become leaders. Maybe some African countries have a similar sized gulf in outcomes from going to Eton vs an inner city sink school?

The only other countries I know much about are France and Switzerland. In France, the grandes écoles dominate - but at least entry to them is based on academic performance, not wealth of parents. In Switzerland everyone goes to the local school (they still have a sense of community there), foreign expats send their kids to international schools in the cities, and there are a few ultra exclusive schools for billionaire Russians.

I'm personally sceptical of the Remainer theory that a lack of education resulted in enough people to really make a difference believing some numbers on a BIG RED BUS - is there any study that relates educational attainment to knowing that many/most politicians are self serving liars?

Warren Buffet has an interesting view: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/warren-buffett-is-right-ban-private-schools_b_1857287.html

I wonder if many poorly educated Leavers voted for change partly due to the gulf in available education in the UK?

Well that’s politics for you.

In hindsight it seems quite straightforward - get say 30% of the poorest least educated end of the population  to confuse 70% with 1% ( is this what you are still doing now ?), bandy around a ‘liberal elite’ straw man (added benefit it gets the divisive hatred juices flowing), and leave the rest to xenophobes racists and boomers.

Also the ‘ignore stats facts or experts, just consume our sh1tburgers’ mantra a pretty easy and initially rewarding one to follow.

Job done. Almost. 

 

 

[casual_squash]

3 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Oh wow, it's the "the EU is going to disintegrate" line again. Good job dusting that one off - haven't heard it for a while!

The EU isn't fragmenting just because a few nutters get 13% of the vote in Germany. Let's not forget that UKIP, our own "far right" party got 12% of the vote in the 2015 general election.

If you are looking for fragmented, look no further that the UK a country split down the MIDDLE on the vote for the EU, and unable to deliver a majority for any party even until the FPTP system. Then you have the Scottish independence question, the Ireland / NI problem and the north south divide. I cannot think of a country in modern history that is less united than the Disunited Queendom.

Yet that mere 12% was all that was needed to secure a referendum, with what, 2 MP's in Parliament. 

13% under a PR system buys you a lot more. Good luck EU, your going to need it. 

 

 

[Riedquat]

19 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

The EU isn't fragmenting just because a few nutters get 13% of the vote in Germany. Let's not forget that UKIP, our own "far right" party got 12% of the vote in the 2015 general election.

It's another sign of movement in that direction. Is that a temporary change, will it level off, or will the nutters increasingly attract the less nutty who are getting increasingly dissatisfied? Saying "it's not a big number" and ignoring trends is burying your head in the sand, and doing that provides ample opportunity to get bitten on the backside

Edited September 26, 2017 by Riedquat

[dugsbody]

27 minutes ago, casual_squash said:

This was commented on not long after referendum anyway, in that internal strife within the EU was predicted to just overtake any Brexit problems anyway and it won't take much for this to happen, especially within a Proportional Representative Europe.

The German results are a prime example, the AFD with only 13% of the vote has now hobbled the Bundestag. Already the reality of the practically of a Jamaican coalition (or lack of) is sinking in. 

Then the next real canary will undoubtedly be the next Italian Election, which at the very least will produce a similar problem of a hobbled Italian government

I doubt it, though I fully expect brexiters to continue to hold to this belief despite continued lack of evidence to support it. Evidence has never mattered at any point in this whole debacle, so I don't expect that to change now. 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, highYield said:

I don't know of any other country that has such an entrenched class system (India maybe?) - or a single school where such a high proportion of ex-pupils become leaders. Maybe some African countries have a similar sized gulf in outcomes from going to Eton vs an inner city sink school?

The only other countries I know much about are France and Switzerland. In France, the grandes écoles dominate - but at least entry to them is based on academic performance, not wealth of parents. In Switzerland everyone goes to the local school (they still have a sense of community there), foreign expats send their kids to international schools in the cities, and there are a few ultra exclusive schools for billionaire Russians.

I'm personally sceptical of the Remainer theory that a lack of education resulted in enough people to really make a difference believing some numbers on a BIG RED BUS - is there any study that relates educational attainment to knowing that many/most politicians are self serving liars?

Warren Buffet has an interesting view: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/warren-buffett-is-right-ban-private-schools_b_1857287.html

I wonder if many poorly educated Leavers voted for change partly due to the gulf in available education in the UK?

Entry to Eton is based upon academic performance, the entry requirements are very high at 13 and stratospheric at 16, over 20% of pupils are there on bursaries/scholarships.

At the time of the referendum the BBC polled voters about their reasons for deciding to vote leave, immigration came top followed by being able to give £350m per week to the NHS. IIRC over 20% gave this as their prime reason for voting leave. 

The only two people we know, relatives, who voted leave did so for this reason. Much to the annoyance of my wife who works for the NHS in a role responsible for trying to ensure the service is delivered to a safe standard and has to cope with the effective 3-4% cut in the budget caused by the devaluation of the £ and now difficulty in recruiting qualified staff from Europe (for those on here who go Hooray at this, the NHS's response has been to triple the overseas recruitment budget and to shift focus to the far East).

[GrizzlyDave]

7 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I doubt it, though I fully expect brexiters to continue to hold to this belief despite continued lack of evidence to support it. Evidence has never mattered at any point in this whole debacle, so I don't expect that to change now. 

The strength of the union is only really tested in a crisis.

[dugsbody]

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

The strength of the union is only really tested in a crisis.

Yes, I agree with that. Some choose to cut and run on their partners when things aren't that peachy.

[GrizzlyDave]

10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Entry to Eton is based upon academic performance, the entry requirements are very high at 13 and stratospheric at 16, over 20% of pupils are there on bursaries/scholarships.

At the time of the referendum the BBC polled voters about their reasons for deciding to vote leave, immigration came top followed by being able to give £350m per week to the NHS. IIRC over 20% gave this as their prime reason for voting leave. 

The only two people we know, relatives, who voted leave did so for this reason. Much to the annoyance of my wife who works for the NHS in a role responsible for trying to ensure the service is delivered to a safe standard and has to cope with the effective 3-4% cut in the budget caused by the devaluation of the £ and now difficulty in recruiting qualified staff from Europe (for those on here who go Hooray at this, the NHS's response has been to triple the overseas recruitment budget and to shift focus to the far East).

Eton’s Fees are bat shit crazy;

http://www.etoncollege.com/CurrentFees.aspx

£12,910 per half term! 

So x 6 that is £77,460 a year, without all the extras like uniforms and quiddich sticks...

Edited September 26, 2017 by GrizzlyDave