Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Not at the moment, you?

Touché 

Not trying to win some point here, but you seem to be taking this debate a little personally - does our chat here on a fairly obscure corner of the web really warrant as much time, passion and effort as we all put in?

Whatever we say here doesn't change much - or does it?

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Not exactly HY

http://evonomics.com/economic-ideas-change-the-world-keynes-hayek-friedman-reagan/

I was asking Futuroid for a link to the source of the idea that the EU is the source of neoliberal ideas in the UK - I'm genuinely interested in where that came from.

3 hours ago, Futuroid said:

And some posters on here blame the EU and claim that it is the source of neoliberal ideas in the UK. 

 

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

And Mr Evil himself

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek

Sorry, you've lost me here.

Limited Liability companies have a simple UK origin. In the old days, if a moneyman financed a ship to go and explore for booty, and it sunk or never returned, then the backer was liable to provide for the widows and orphans of the lost sailors. Unlimited liability. A bit like a Lloyds name.

So, we, the UK, invented Limited Liability companies. The moneymen formed a Ltd company, put the money for the ship into the company, which owned the ship and employed the sailors. Ship lost? Ltd company folded. Shares go to 0 pence, but shareholders not liable for the sailors. Their liability is limited to their investment.

Limited liability companies enabled - indeed are - our pirates, our history. Capitalism is our, the UK's, creation.

I'd argue that Neoliberalism is just the latest name for our capitalism - our limited liability companies - our pirates that made us Great Britain.

Edited November 14, 2017 by Guest

[rollover]

Did PM shot herself in the foot by stating Russia has been meddling in UK election?

If it will be proved that Russia's troll army swings the Brexit vote, what will she do?

Edited November 14, 2017 by rollover

[sPinwheel]

6 minutes ago, rollover said:

Did PM shot herself in the foot by stating Russia has been meddling in UK election?

If it will be proved that Russia's troll army swings the Brexit vote, what will she do?

Something.

[dugsbody]

51 minutes ago, highYield said:

I was asking Futuroid for a link to the source of the idea that the EU is the source of neoliberal ideas in the UK - I'm genuinely interested in where that came from

Really? Actually, I thought you were one of the posters who said that you voted out of the EU because it was too neoliberal. Maybe I'm mistaken but I think it's a common sentiment on here anyway.

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Really? Actually, I thought you were one of the posters who said that you voted out of the EU because it was too neoliberal. Maybe I'm mistaken but I think it's a common sentiment on here anyway.

Don't think i'd have said that - link would be good, but this thread is soooooo long

My point was that perhaps neoliberalism is an inflection point of society vs. Ltd liability companies (inc. Public limited liability companies). Without a representative government incorporating external costs, could the UK's invention of limited liability companies have had any other endpoint other than what we call neoliberalism?

Edited November 14, 2017 by Guest
end point => inflection

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, tomandlu said:

Having just finished "The Black Swan", I heartily agree. Completely pointless.

So no point in ever investing in anything long term then?

 

[Confusion of VIs]

5 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Success is out of the EU without being significantly worse off. I wasn't talking about significant to me individually but across the entire country.

CofVI's 1-2% sounds negligable. How far back do you go to a point where the country that less well off than it is now? Don't recall life being awful then. 2% growth gets people handwringing about it being hardly any, but a drop by the equivalent amount (OK that's the other way around, a 2% fall isn't the same absolute number difference as a 2% rise, but it's not that different) is a disaster? Or is it falling 2% year on year forever? That would be bad, but implausible.

You asked what would be a significant fall and 1-2% definitely would not be negligible to a chancellor who needs more not less growth to balance the books and is already having to work with some pretty bleak predictions from the OBR. 

I would have thought your biggest concern would be the actions that the likes of Mogg would take to try and compensate for the loss of EU trade.  A massive investment in infrastructure mainly roads and housebuilding fueled by relaxation of planning rules is definitely on the cards    

 

 

[HairyOb1]

1 hour ago, highYield said:

Touché 

Not trying to win some point here, but you seem to be taking this debate a little personally - does our chat here on a fairly obscure corner of the web really warrant as much time, passion and effort as we all put in?

Whatever we say here doesn't change much - or does it?

I don't really, but when you make it personal, with little jibes like that, then of course I am going to respond.  I guess it gives us a place to howl at the moon, but also to learn.  Not much any brexiteer has said has been borne out to be true yet, but I do listen, and it causes me to read up on subjects I am unfamiliar with, so if anything, it's been both cathartic and educational coming on here; I don't go on any other forums really, not unless for research and question asking.

I think if you can change minds, then it's worth it, and I have seen a softening in stance of a few here, so it's got to be worth it.  I don't think everyone here is so deeply entrenched s some of us, so it's worth discussing it with them, in case there's a second bite at the cherry.  For that reason alone, I'll not give up I guess.

[ExiledMatty]

A hard Brexit would probably deliver an almighty house price crash. I am surprised so many on this forum are against this happening and question their real motivations here?

This is possibly the last chance for housing to become affordable again for a generation. If there is none or just a soft Brexit, then expect the HPI status quo to remain.

[ZeroSumGame]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I would have thought your biggest concern would be the actions that the likes of Mogg would take to try and compensate for the loss of EU trade.  A massive investment in infrastructure mainly roads and housebuilding fueled by relaxation of planning rules is definitely on the cards   

Were the swivel-eyed loons to take control after Theresa May gets wheeled out screaming, where on earth are they going to get the money from? Who's going to invest in BrexitLand?

Seriously.!    Haven't you read some of the MSM quoting financier and MP Redwood advising people to avoid investing in Britain?

Quote

British Lawmaker Advises Investors To Take Their Money Out Of The UK           

In an op-ed in the Financial Times, the Chief Global Strategist for Charles Stanley, John Redwood, advises investors to remove their money from the United Kingdom. “Time to look further afield as the UK economy hits the brakes”, says his headline.

Forbes (no less)

#TakeBackControlAndInvestElsewhere

#MadMaxWasteLand

[Confusion of VIs]

53 minutes ago, ExiledMatty said:

A hard Brexit would probably deliver an almighty house price crash. I am surprised so many on this forum are against this happening and question their real motivations here?

This is possibly the last chance for housing to become affordable again for a generation. If there is none or just a soft Brexit, then expect the HPI status quo to remain.

So far Brexit has probably held up house prices - by devaluing the £, keeping interest rates down and the QE coming

A hard Brexit would certainly deliver a house price crash in $ or Euro terms but not so clear cut in terms of £ as it would mean near 0% (or even negative interest rates) plus lots more QE for the foreseeable future. 

[Confusion of VIs]

40 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Were the swivel-eyed loons to take control after Theresa May gets wheeled out screaming, where on earth are they going to get the money from? Who's going to invest in BrexitLand?

Seriously.!    Haven't you read some of the MSM quoting financier and MP Redwood advising people to avoid investing in Britain?

Forbes (no less)

#TakeBackControlAndInvestElsewhere

#MadMaxWasteLand

They will borrow/print the money, the likely side effect of trashing the £ will be seen as a benefit helping us win the race to the bottom. 

 

 

 

[ZeroSumGame]

2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

They will borrow/print the money, the likely side effect of trashing the £ will be seen as a benefit helping us win the race to the bottom.

The pound is already trashed. Funnily enough, much more against the EUR as opposed to the USD.   Heading towards € parity.

Hmmm. Printing money is fine as long as counter-parties are prepared to buy gilts. I'm not sure there's much faith in 'the market' for that. Besides who wants to buy UK bonds when USA treasuries are offering a higher yield.?

Nah. Credibility is ebbing away - along with governmental (in)competence.

BTW - you've spent a long time working in Germany - how fluent are you?  Your kid is, otherwise s/he wouldn't have got in to the TÜM.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

51 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

The pound is already trashed. Funnily enough, much more against the EUR as opposed to the USD.   Heading towards € parity.

Hmmm. Printing money is fine as long as counter-parties are prepared to buy gilts. I'm not sure there's much faith in 'the market' for that. Besides who wants to buy UK bonds when USA treasuries are offering a higher yield.?

Nah. Credibility is ebbing away - along with governmental (in)competence.

BTW - you've spent a long time working in Germany - how fluent are you?  Your kid is, otherwise s/he wouldn't have got in to the TÜM.

 

I think there is more trashing to come if we have a hard Brexit, maybe well below parity. Also still plenty of opportunity to print more money. We may have to buy own gilts to cover it but we could probably manage 10 or 20 years of doing that. 

 

My German was ok but never became fluent  as most of the time I was working for Siemens who even then had English as the working language in the Perlach computing division. Also even back them Munich was very international so English was also the main language used when socialising.

My kid's German is at a good conversational level (did GCSE and AS level) not fully fluent but good enough to be accepted. It isn't a problem as all of the teaching material/lecture notes etc. are available in English and all of her tutors speak fluent English (they have to be as they are also required to be able to lecture/tutor in English, for the higher degree courses which are now mainly conducted in English).          

Edited November 15, 2017 by Confusion of VIs

[tomandlu]

9 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

So no point in ever investing in anything long term then?

 

Not at all. Just don't rely on models that never work. IIRC his advice was put the bulk of your money in the safest assets you can find (treasury t-bills I think, but don't quote me), and lots of side investments in a variety of high-risk, black-swan susceptible ventures. In other words, be prepared for the unexpected, but don't pretend you know what the unexpected is. As for public projects, he's fine with those - just don't pretend you know how much it's going to cost or how long it's going to take, or what the precise impact will be.

Edited November 15, 2017 by tomandlu
extra detail

[Futuroid]

12 hours ago, highYield said:

Given that the UK invented Limited Liability Companies - the origin of neoliberalism - it would be... interesting....  if anyone could claim that the EU is the source of neoliberal ideas in the UK.

Which posters/posts are you referring to?

Link please.

Take your time, plenty more where these came from:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103118538

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103266574

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103114743

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103261129

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103234447

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103140934

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103273146

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&page=1236&tab=comments#comment-1103297567

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&page=1061&tab=comments#comment-1103273171

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103117389

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103229949

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103134214

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/210294-brexit-what-happens-next-thread-multiple-merged-threads/&do=findComment&comment=1103120689

[HairyOb1]

6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I think there is more trashing to come if we have a hard Brexit, maybe well below parity. Also still plenty of opportunity to print more money. We may have to buy own gilts to cover it but we could probably manage 10 or 20 years of doing that. 

My German was ok but never became fluent  as most of the time I was working for Siemens who even then had English as the working language in the Perlach computing division. Also even back them Munich was very international so English was also the main language used when socialising.

My kid's German is at a good conversational level (did GCSE and AS level) not fully fluent but good enough to be accepted. It isn't a problem as all of the teaching material/lecture notes etc. are available in English and all of her tutors speak fluent English (they have to be as they are also required to be able to lecture/tutor in English, for the higher degree courses which are now mainly conducted in English).          

It's quite odd, but I spent a long time with O2 in Munich, and despite them knowing I could speak German, was born there, all meetings were conducted in English even if I was the only English person there and socially, if management were there, English would also always be spoken.

France for me, on the rebound, 2 of the kids are pretty much fluent, as am I, and the 3rd young enough to be able to pick it up quickly.  Would probably have to buy a house in Bordeaux or Toulouse, for the kids education, but both good places to live, with work if I wanted to.

But it does look like this is really going to go tits up and you do wonder why swivel eyed brexit loons like Redwood still want this to go ahead, whilst telling financial institutions to keep their money away from the UK.  You talk of patriotism, and the supposed lack of it for remainers, but this somehow gets accepted, but seems the most treasonable thing one could imagine; selling out your country.

 

[Futuroid]

1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

You talk of patriotism, and the supposed lack of it for remainers, but this somehow gets accepted, but seems the most treasonable thing one could imagine; selling out your country.

They've been hollowing it out for decades, selling it out is the final step.

[Futuroid]

This is an example of Brexiteer doublethink. They want the UK parliament to be sovereign, but only if it votes with their madcap plans!

Not to mention the Daily Wail style bullying headline. Looking at this, it's hard to believe that a serving MP was murdered by a right-wing loon during the referendum campaign.

 

[Riedquat]

9 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

The pound is already trashed. Funnily enough, much more against the EUR as opposed to the USD.   Heading towards € parity.

The pound isn't anywhere it hasn't been before against the Euro.

[HairyOb1]

24 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

The pound isn't anywhere it hasn't been before against the Euro.

That old nugget.  I guess you missed it going down from €1.38 to €1.11 and from $1.49 to $1.24 overnight...

Of course though, that was as it was already over valued and a coincidence...

 

[Riedquat]

4 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

That old nugget.  I guess you missed it going down from €1.38 to €1.11 and from $1.49 to $1.24 overnight...

Of course though, that was as it was already over valued and a coincidence...

 

It was over-valued, although no-one's said "coincidence" (but hey, that's Remainer logic, make stuff up when it suits you). And where did I imply that I'd missed it going down suddenly? Notice I was replying to a post that was emphasising the euro, not the dollar rate change, yet the level vs the dollar is more unprecedented.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, Riedquat said:

It was over-valued, although no-one's said "coincidence" (but hey, that's Remainer logic, make stuff up when it suits you). And where did I imply that I'd missed it going down suddenly? Notice I was replying to a post that was emphasising the euro, not the dollar rate change, yet the level vs the dollar is more unprecedented.

If you cut out the financial crash of 2008 it is.  These are proper lows, €1.07 in August?

But yes, against the dollar is unprecedented.  

However, it's dumped from €1.39 to €1.07 since brexit, recovered to €1.13 and is now heading back down.  That's quite some drop against a currency lots on here think is a busted flush, no?

I'm with ZSG