Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, EmmaRoid said:

What does “Brexit uncertainty” mean? Someone working in the NHS should see there are very many non-EU immigrants working in the NHS. Therefore it is not beyond the wit of man that EU citizens will remain employable by the NHS. If, for instance, they are worried about the future of the NHS why not say so?

On the money reason, really? The euro has traded between 1.5 and parity over the past 10 years. Up and down all the time long before Brexit. Why now, this moment? Have they been hit like all the other NHS employees? Tight wage claims? Negative pension changes? HMRC tax and NI changes? Are these the real reasons for the increase in Spanish pay competitiveness? If so, say so. Ditto environmental factors, do Timak’s mates live with him in Cambridge? Are they frustrated by the horrendous cost of housing in the area? Inability to buy a home? The cost of living would be cheaper almost anywhere in the UK but Cambridge. Have they made a mint and cashing out? Who knows? No one because Timak hasn’t told us.

It was a banal meaningless anecdote.

Anecdotes aside. The reality is that EU recruitment has dropped and resignations increased following the vote. The £ has lost 15% of its value at the same time as NHS wage rises are being held well below inflation, meanwhile wages in the EE states are rising rapidly (in Romania they increased by 15% in the 12 months following the vote). So money being a reducing incentive for moving is clearly an important factor.

Of course the EE states were always going to catch up and the EE migration surge is a temporary phenomena that will fade as the huge gulf in living standards narrows and the pool of people wanting to move is drained.

The ironical thing is this was already beginning to happen by the time of the vote and will be more or less complete by the time FoM actually ends in 21/22. 

[Riedquat]

17 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Anecdotes aside. The reality is that EU recruitment has dropped and resignations increased following the vote. The £ has lost 15% of its value at the same time as NHS wage rises are being held well below inflation, meanwhile wages in the EE states are rising rapidly (in Romania they increased by 15% in the 12 months following the vote). So money being a reducing incentive for moving is clearly an important factor. 

Were there noticable effects in the past when the pound / euro exchange rate was at this level? If wages were lower elsewhere then, well, isn't part of the point of the EU to bring those countries up, so cheap labour exploitation would only ever have been a temporary thing.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Riedquat

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, EmmaRoid said:

That’s just an anti-Corbyn rant.

I thought it was apt since it encapsulated several of the issues over the last few pages e.g. 70's. Written 3 months ago, the housing crisis was an obvious omission, but apart from the last couple of sentences, I thought it was fair.

[libspero]

A lot of talk recently about us joining NAFTA..  has this been discussed much on here?

http://www.canada.com/news/national/government+interested+joining+nafta+whatever+becomes+brexit/15107658/story.html

Apart from a few issues surrounding things like aviation trade-wars and Trump threatening to undermine the concept entirely..  it actually sounds quite a good idea.   It will be interesting to see whether the idea gains much traction..  especially since the EU doesn't seem very interested in taking Brexit negotiations seriously at the moment.

[HairyOb1]

20 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

  

There's just you in your namecalling echo chamber... just search your faves:

Sweet cheeks

usually a name given by gang-banging jail inmates to tiny inmates made into their b1tches

Big John calls Little Joe-Joe the cross-dressing faggot "sweet cheeks". Joe-Joe is such a b1tch!

 

cockjockey

Someone who bounces up and down on a pen1s with similar enthusiasm of that of a jockey riding a horse. Usually used to describe a homosexual male.

 

 

 

You really are odd.  I never once said I didn't like anyone, far form it, I merely pointed out that we'll be swapping one form of immigration, for another, which is demonstrably true.

I find it funny you're trying to suggest this makes me a racist.

As for the rest, it's simplistic obfuscation, again, given you can't argue the point I made: Simply leaving the EU will not stop immigration, it will just mean people come here from somewhere else.

17 hours ago, ExiledMatty said:

Always suspected Hairyob1 was racist. 

A home owning, left wing extremist who hates people from the sub-continent. Do we really want his type on this forum?

Bad night petal?

[HairyOb1]

2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

1.  Anecdotes aside. The reality is that EU recruitment has dropped and resignations increased following the vote. The £ has lost 15% of its value at the same time as NHS wage rises are being held well below inflation, meanwhile wages in the EE states are rising rapidly (in Romania they increased by 15% in the 12 months following the vote). So money being a reducing incentive for moving is clearly an important factor.

2.  Of course the EE states were always going to catch up and the EE migration surge is a temporary phenomena that will fade as the huge gulf in living standards narrows and the pool of people wanting to move is drained.

3.  The ironical thing is this was already beginning to happen by the time of the vote and will be more or less complete by the time FoM actually ends in 21/22. 

1.  I've lost a developer from Romania, a good one too.  Now in Mons with NATO.  A lot of guys are moving to Europe.

2.  Equivalence, I've been saying it for ages.  The difference between Spain of Yore and Spain now is breathtaking.

3.  Completely.

[Futuroid]

EU leaders to block Brexit trade talks at October summit

https://www.ft.com/content/ff329274-af42-11e7-beba-5521c713abf4

It's a bloody good job that we hold all the cards, otherwise this would start to make UK based businesses a little nervous! 

[Peter Hun]

8 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Despite the article, which references the EU Chinese Chamber of Commerce report to the contrary?

http://www.eubusiness.com/focus/17-03-09/

Let's hope the EU elite are not in denial...

WRT to Germany:

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_germanys_turnabout_on_chinese_takeovers_7251

... five years gestation whilst Chinese acquisitions are growing.

WRT to UK:

http://www.cityam.com/270397/chinese-ma-booming-uk-and-across-belt-and-road-countries

I don't understand what your point is here. The UK has a 34.5 billion Euro deficit, 20% of the total for the whole of the EU so its far worse that the rest of the EU.

http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/

[Confusion of VIs]

5 hours ago, dryrot said:

I imagine Barnier is under instructions to delay as long as possible. Don't forget the UK is the 2nd biggest net contributor o EU funding. Who else will pay for the bureaucracy - or trips to Strasbourg and back - if we stop?

This is just a Leaver fantasy that will be exposed over the coming year.

The UK's contribution is negligible in term of the EU's overall GDP.

Even if you take the view that all of the existing money is accounted for, the EU is currently growing at a rate equivalent to the UK's contributions every 6 weeks.

Even if you also take the view that that any forecast growth was pre spent, since the referendum result the EU has outperformed its forecast growth by 0.8%, or roughly 9 times our annual contribution.      

All Barnier, or more correctly the heads of states he is negotiating on behalf of, care about is that nothing is agreed that undermines the cohesion of the remaining 27. So no retaining the benefits of the single market after we leave; at least not without paying for it through the nose.  Most worryingly, for the UK, the idea that overall a no deal Brexit could be good for the remainder of the EU is starting to gain ground in France and Germany.  

[Confusion of VIs]

7 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Thanks. Would be interested to know if there's been any real developments since last year. 

I have just asked and apparently it's proceeding pretty much as you would expect an expensive, disruptive and unfunded initiative in a cash strapped environment to: 

     https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/education/exclusive-new-nursing-apprenticeships-hit-by-delays/7021114.article?blocktitle=Also-in-the-news&contentID=20275

[Confusion of VIs]

5 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Were there noticable effects in the past when the pound / euro exchange rate was at this level? If wages were lower elsewhere then, well, isn't part of the point of the EU to bring those countries up, so cheap labour exploitation would only ever have been a temporary thing.

There are three separate effects at work affecting the net migration:

    - the gradual draining of the pool of people prepared to move to a foreign country for work

   - reducing financial incentives as the gap in living standards reduces 

  -  gradually increasing numbers returning to their home country

When I was at the Home Office I did see a projection for Polish net migration that showed it reducing to near zero over a 20 yr timespan. Unfortunately, I cannot find any figures to confirm or debunk this (although it wouldn't have taken account the introduction of WTCs). 

 

Edited October 12, 2017 by Confusion of VIs

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, libspero said:

A lot of talk recently about us joining NAFTA..  has this been discussed much on here?

http://www.canada.com/news/national/government+interested+joining+nafta+whatever+becomes+brexit/15107658/story.html

Apart from a few issues surrounding things like aviation trade-wars and Trump threatening to undermine the concept entirely..  it actually sounds quite a good idea.   It will be interesting to see whether the idea gains much traction..  especially since the EU doesn't seem very interested in taking Brexit negotiations seriously at the moment.

A little bit up thread.

Australia's experience, with their NAFTA lite trade deal, would give anyone bothered to research it plenty of reasons why it would be a very bad deal for the UK. 

Some other reasons why NAFTA would be a very poor replacement for the single market

NAFTA would be far less valuable to the UK than the single market. The EU still accounts for 50% of our exports, ignore the oft quoted 44% as that is distorted by London being the world hub for the precious metal trade.  

In the EU the UK was on the winning side in around 95% of the votes and was often the swing voter. How many do you think we would win in NAFTA.

We are currently doing very well trading with the US and have a large trade surplus, this is something the US would wish to address in any trade negotiations

It would take the usual 10-20 years to agree  

[OnionTerror]

22 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

A little bit up thread.

Australia's experience, with their NAFTA lite trade deal, would give anyone bothered to research it plenty of reasons why it would be a very bad deal for the UK. 

Some other reasons why NAFTA would be a very poor replacement for the single market

NAFTA would be far less valuable to the UK than the single market. The EU still accounts for 50% of our exports, ignore the oft quoted 44% as that is distorted by London being the world hub for the precious metal trade.  

In the EU the UK was on the winning side in around 95% of the votes and was often the swing voter. How many do you think we would win in NAFTA.

We are currently doing very well trading with the US and have a large trade surplus, this is something the US would wish to address in any trade negotiations

It would take the usual 10-20 years to agree  

What's that old addage?  If you double the distance, you halve the trade...

[ZeroSumGame]

3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

  Most worryingly, for the UK, the idea that overall a no deal Brexit could be good for the remainder of the EU is starting to gain ground in France and Germany.  

The now departing German finance minister Hr.Dr.Schaueble has been quoted as saying the EU will be better off without Britain. I don't know if this is his true feelings or part of a charade.

But maybe the UK and the EU know that there'll be no deal until the the 11th hour - when the  UK steps backs and cancels  A50. Only Theresa May has  an idea.

[pig]

15 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

The now departing German finance minister Hr.Dr.Schaueble has been quoted as saying the EU will be better off without Britain. I don't know if this is his true feelings or part of a charade.

But maybe the UK and the EU know that there'll be no deal until the the 11th hour - when the  UK steps backs and cancels  A50. Only Theresa May has  an idea.

I suspect this is a real problem. Seem to remember Merkel a while back saying that the US and the UK were now unreliable partners. Not hard to see why.

 

[ExiledMatty]

5 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

A little bit up thread.

Australia's experience, with their NAFTA lite trade deal, would give anyone bothered to research it plenty of reasons why it would be a very bad deal for the UK. 

Some other reasons why NAFTA would be a very poor replacement for the single market

NAFTA would be far less valuable to the UK than the single market. The EU still accounts for 50% of our exports, ignore the oft quoted 44% as that is distorted by London being the world hub for the precious metal trade.  

In the EU the UK was on the winning side in around 95% of the votes and was often the swing voter. How many do you think we would win in NAFTA.

We are currently doing very well trading with the US and have a large trade surplus, this is something the US would wish to address in any trade negotiations

It would take the usual 10-20 years to agree  

We are not Australia though. We are the fifth largest nation by GDP, not some remote land that's entire economy is based on demand from China! 

I would welcome joining NAFTA. Best us Anglo countries stick together with the added bonus of cheap labour and tequilla from SOTB.

These talks with the EU will just continue to stall. Remoaners are living in denial if they think we might get a good deal from those assholes on the continent. Screw the Irish as well. Let's see them become more reliant on Greece and Latvia, rather than relying on us.

Hard Brexit will mean our economy will possibly collapse. People (dumb sheep essentially) will lose jobs and they won't be able to afford their mortgages. Second home owners and landlords will feel the pinch and off load their property.

Hard Brexit = HPC

What's not to like? This is what many of us have been waiting for.

Roll on March 19 and that cliff edge.

[Sheeple Splinter]

18 hours ago, jonb2 said:

1. There is an increasing gap between politicians and the people.

This is particularly bad here.

This applies to the media as well. It's as though they are 2 worlds getting further and further apart. Look at the shock on BBC faces after the anger directed at them after Grenfell.

Most of the puppet masters are either ignorant or greedy - sometimes both. To me, it's a crime for them to blame the EU for all our woes when the main problem is much closer to home. Supported by the rabid DM, DE, Sun and Telegraph.

2. As for the reason. Well earlier on this thread there was talk of Eton being represented heavily in the conservative party. Someone talked about some real stars that had been to to Eton 100-50 years ago. But look at the calibre of people we have now. It's appaulling. So Boris can quote from Plato and Socrates - but does he think? People laugh at Rees-Mogg, but does he have ANY experience of life outside his nanny and the FT shares page?

Churchill had a huge experience of life before going into politics. Orwell, an Eton man and perhaps in the top 5 of our writers, roamed everywhere too. Bevan put the people before himself and had an inbuilt sense of duty to his country etc.

Now I like Yanis - flawed, but he's a thinking man. I think we deserve people that

1) Think

2) Have a sense of duty towards the country - not themselves

It's simply that we have had dross for so long. It might be that the world is more complicated. In which case we need people that think even harder.

1. The UK has a political system where politicians are trusted less than EA's yet the turnout at GE2017 was nearly 70%. I wonder if there will be UK version of Macron coming from nowhere, starting a new party and becoming President?

2. I don't think the fault lies with Eton, or any other public school, it's the networks that follow but, ultimately, it's down to the voters.  

[OnionTerror]

5 hours ago, ExiledMatty said:

We are not Australia though. We are the fifth largest nation by GDP, not some remote land that's entire economy is based on demand from China! 

I would welcome joining NAFTA. Best us Anglo countries stick together with the added bonus of cheap labour and tequilla from SOTB.

These talks with the EU will just continue to stall. Remoaners are living in denial if they think we might get a good deal from those assholes on the continent. Screw the Irish as well. Let's see them become more reliant on Greece and Latvia, rather than relying on us.

Hard Brexit will mean our economy will possibly collapse. People (dumb sheep essentially) will lose jobs and they won't be able to afford their mortgages. Second home owners and landlords will feel the pinch and off load their property.

Hard Brexit = HPC

What's not to like? This is what many of us have been waiting for.

Roll on March 19 and that cliff edge.? 

It'll most likely mean the death of JIT manufacturing...Who knows what'll happen to the food chain?  I'm sure it'll be absolutely catastrophic for my area, which has a big manufacturing base.  I can't celebrate that...

Edited October 13, 2017 by Dave Beans

[IMHAL]

13 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

It'll most likely mean the death of JIT manufacturing...Who knows what'll happen to the food chain?  I'm sure it'll be absolutely catastrophic for my area, which has a big manufacturing base.  I can't celebrate that...

I think there are now only three sorts of Leavers -

LaLa Land Leavers -  who genuinly think a no deal is good and we will be better off by going back to the 1970.

LetEmBurn Leavers - who think that a no deal will be catastrophic and want it anyway.

LetMeOutaHere Leavers - who are starting to realise that we are in big trouble and a no deal will actually affect them, their family and their future prospects.

Guess which one you just responded to.

Edited October 13, 2017 by IMHAL
Add stuff

[pig]

5 hours ago, ExiledMatty said:

We are not Australia though. We are the fifth largest nation by GDP, not some remote land that's entire economy is based on demand from China! 

I would welcome joining NAFTA. Best us Anglo countries stick together with the added bonus of cheap labour and tequilla from SOTB.

These talks with the EU will just continue to stall. Remoaners are living in denial if they think we might get a good deal from those assholes on the continent. Screw the Irish as well. Let's see them become more reliant on Greece and Latvia, rather than relying on us.

Hard Brexit will mean our economy will possibly collapse. People (dumb sheep essentially) will lose jobs and they won't be able to afford their mortgages. Second home owners and landlords will feel the pinch and off load their property.

Hard Brexit = HPC

What's not to like? This is what many of us have been waiting for.

Roll on March 19 and that cliff edge.

 

So Brexit is an exercise in silly hubris and nationalist bigotry that will probably destroy the economy ?

Provided you don’t have an ounce of patriotism, and all you care about is proving Vote Remain correct I guess there’s plenty to like. 

 

 

 

[dryrot]

8 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

The now departing German finance minister Hr.Dr.Schaueble has been quoted as saying the EU will be better off without Britain. I don't know if this is his true feelings or part of a charade.

But maybe the UK and the EU know that there'll be no deal until the the 11th hour - when the  UK steps backs and cancels  A50. Only Theresa May has  an idea.

When we leave the EU  will need to find another Euro ~15Bn to fund the EU bureaucracy.  I cant see anyone but Germany being presented with the bill?  A teensy problem for Dr Schaueble - or his successor?

[debtlessmanc]

1 hour ago, pig said:

 

So Brexit is an exercise in silly hubris and nationalist bigotry that will probably destroy the economy ?

Provided you don’t have an ounce of patriotism, and all you care about is proving Vote Remain correct I guess there’s plenty to like. 

 

 

 

And the EU will get the first failed 1st world state on its borders? Despite all the noises coming from across the channel Brexit is a nightmare for the EU too -still. Spent yestreday evening in company of 4 other professors, one at a Canadian university. Usual barrage of “it was the racists that done it”. Apparently that is the standard mantra in Canada and the Canadians will be reluctant to do a trade deal with that perception in place. Obviously I don’t expound my skepticism of the political aims of the EU. But one them with an Italian wife did announce that he could get a job in Italy as his wife’s cousin would arrange it at her university- he said this completely without irony -incredible. 

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, dryrot said:

When we leave the EU  will need to find another Euro ~15Bn to fund the EU bureaucracy.  I cant see anyone but Germany being presented with the bill?  A teensy problem for Dr Schaueble - or his successor?

15Bn divided by 27 is chicken feed in the grand scheme of things.

[HairyOb1]

10 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

15Bn divided by 27 is chicken feed in the grand scheme of things.

Quite, given we can seemingly find £1bn from the armchair for the DUP and, apparently, Hundreds of Billions to stave off issues if we do have a hard Brexit.

2 hours ago, IMHAL said:

I think there are now only three sorts of Leavers -

LaLa Land Leavers -  who genuinly think a no deal is good and we will be better off by going back to the 1970.

LetEmBurn Leavers - who think that a no deal will be catastrophic and want it anyway.

LetMeOutaHere Leavers - who are starting to realise that we are in big trouble and a no deal will actually affect them, their family and their future prospects.

Guess which one you just responded to.

Ooh, that's a tricky one there...

1 hour ago, pig said:

So Brexit is an exercise in silly hubris and nationalist bigotry that will probably destroy the economy ?

Provided you don’t have an ounce of patriotism, and all you care about is proving Vote Remain correct I guess there’s plenty to like. 

Just a joke really that people think this is actually good for the country.  Maybe they will get what they asked for.  When that happens, I wonder how long it will be before we go back cap in hand. Again.

[Confusion of VIs]

7 hours ago, ExiledMatty said:

We are not Australia though. We are the fifth largest nation by GDP, not some remote land that's entire economy is based on demand from China! 

I would welcome joining NAFTA. Best us Anglo countries stick together with the added bonus of cheap labour and tequilla from SOTB.

These talks with the EU will just continue to stall. Remoaners are living in denial if they think we might get a good deal from those assholes on the continent. Screw the Irish as well. Let's see them become more reliant on Greece and Latvia, rather than relying on us.

Hard Brexit will mean our economy will possibly collapse. People (dumb sheep essentially) will lose jobs and they won't be able to afford their mortgages. Second home owners and landlords will feel the pinch and off load their property.

Hard Brexit = HPC

What's not to like? This is what many of us have been waiting for.

Roll on March 19 and that cliff edge.

Let me guess

you haven't researched the Australia/US agreement, but still happy to us the benefit of your uniformed opinion

you have never lived or worked in the US, don't have any idea what NAFTA covers/is and would be amazed at how little the average American knows or cares about the UK

You call other people dumb sheep. Sounds like you are one of life's losers incapable of improving your so lot, so revel in the misfortune of others as it makes you feel a bit less of a loser.