Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[jonb2]

6 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

The west belittles Russia, the same way as we used to belittle China.

I don't think they have the same psyche GD.

Russia has never had the mentality for producing much commercially. It could, like the T34 - but only under war duress. There is always far too much shark macho stuff going on for people to work together. They are ace at maths and programming - so no shortage of excellent brains. People's centuries of survival in a mired-by-corruption feudal state has done for them.

However, they are truly their own worst enemies. Bigly sad.

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Britain CAPITULATES? UK finally accepts it WILL have to foot a bill for Brexit

The UK’s admission is likely to avert a full-scale dispute with EU officials over an ‘exit bill’ as the two sides prepare for talks next week. In a written statement to Parliament, the Government recognised the need for a “financial settlement”, adding “that the UK has obligations to the EU… that will survive the UK’s withdrawal - and these need to be resolved”. BRITAIN has, for the first time, explicitly acknowledged that it will face a heavy financial bill after exiting the EU. Express

 

Everything goes according EU plan, but not good news for hard Exiters.

[Futuroid]

8 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

Everything goes according EU plan, but not good news for hard Exiters.

Is Boris still whistling?

[HairyOb1]

On 7/14/2017 at 0:31 PM, ccc said:

Do you really believe this ? Every single EU country is totally 100% happy with whatever decisions are reached by the EU in the negotiations ? If something comes up that they don't like they are just going to sit there and stay quiet ?

Come on. How can the EU have agreed its position when its the start of negotiations and they don't even know what their position is yet !!

Means nothing, they'll meet separately and agree a path forward, which Barnier will run, appearing as though it is all seamless; think Swan analogy.

 

On 7/14/2017 at 0:34 PM, cashinmattress said:

Accept the four freedoms for single market membership? Or else?

What the hell ccc... its like your brain...it's a charity shop jigsaw...missing lots of pieces...

Thought this for a while on Brexit.

On 7/14/2017 at 2:28 PM, ccc said:

Really ? Let's see. The shortfall in funding for example. That will be extremely messy and not this wonderful arrangement you seem to think exists.

What does 'Third country' mean ?

So you don't think the divorce bill we've already caved into will pay for this in the interim, until they find a solution?  We'll pay the equivalent of 5 years membership, we all know this.

On 7/14/2017 at 8:02 PM, nuts said:

The T.May Tories cannot deliver grammar schools... or dementia tax... what chance have they of succeeding with brexit ?   

History will judge the unholy mess that they have created and they will suffer at the ballot box for decades to come for causing the disaster that will now unfold.

The best outcome now is that they throw in the towel, call an early election and let somebody else preside over the outcome. 

(and I am not a labour voter).

 

She's incapable of delivering a shit to be frank; at the first sign of any viscosity, she, and her ilk, bales.

7 hours ago, ccc said:

Exactly. So many remainers are just bad losers. Nothing more - nothing less.

A referendum on the EU is not a general election. What's the great difficulty understanding this most simple of concepts ?

It's not a football match.  I am simply so pissed off with my kids future being discussed as though this was a football match.  It isn't ffs, this is for their future, which wasn't looking dandy before this absolute shite show.

What upsets me the absolute most about all of this, is that all of this Brexit nonsense, has been a vanity project in every single case: cameron with the original vote, May with her election; when oh god WHEN, are the politicians going to start putting their own country ahead of their own political ambitions and vanity.

 

[dugsbody]

20 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

so, in summary over the past few days...

If only H.M. Government had a plan, they may be able to respond. What have Bozo, Fozo and Davis been doing ? Do they have the faintest notion of what's going on? 

No, but they can bluster like no-ones business.

[ZeroSumGame]

 

22 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

What upsets me the absolute most about all of this, is that all of this Brexit nonsense, has been a vanity project in every single case: cameron with the original vote, May with her election; when oh god WHEN, are the politicians going to start putting their own country ahead of their own political ambitions and vanity.
 

Quite. Self before party before country.

Quote

Britain's Brexit Chaos Leaves EU Friends and Foes Bemused Bloomberg

Quote

“Our friends are concerned -- and less friendly countries are bemused and astonished -- that the great British machine, which is world famous for efficiency, now seems to be all over the place,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform in London. “Britain’s name has never been held in lower regard than now in terms of its competence, its ability to organize, its ability to be strategic and influence anything.”

 

One big wheeze is this BREXIT lark to the politicians. Don't care which young people's future they jeopardize

There's more to come. Apparently the knives are out for Theresa May ( see ft.com) , so soon we'll have the third chancer in office to derail things further..

 

 

[pig]

24 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

 

Quite. Self before party before country.

 

One big wheeze is this BREXIT lark to the politicians. Don't care which young people's future they jeopardize

There's more to come. Apparently the knives are out for Theresa May ( see ft.com) , so soon we'll have the third chancer in office to derail things further..

 

 

Well not really I'm not so sure it's about ego this time. Its just that they are obliged to pilot an unsound ship because of a particular instance of the  will 'o the sheeple.

Didnt really matter what was said in the run up for the referendum, it was about getting over the line hence the mess.

By the way 'Sovereignty' 'anti-immigration' 'White British' all would 'feel' to many to be 'coherent' notions (hey lets team up with 'anglophone' countries ! / I feel more kinship with A/B/C Trumps not that bad etc, etc), even if they turn out to be puerile and ultimately catastrophic in the end. Cue lots of head spinning and consternation (not to mention political decapitations) at why it's not all working.

The issue of Brexit aside I suspect that's a large part of the actual problem we're dealing with.

 

[Peter Hun]

5 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Well, for one, it is huge and vast.

For two it has rich and deep history and culture.

Third, no one has ever beaten Russia, it's un conquer able.

The west belittles Russia, the same way as we used to belittle China.

So.. a bunch of vikings lucked out and are squatting on a load of natural resources.

Their contribution to world culture doesn't extend further than stealing from each other and the ambition to steal from their neighbours.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, ZeroSumGame said:

 

Quite. Self before party before country.

 

One big wheeze is this BREXIT lark to the politicians. Don't care which young people's future they jeopardize

There's more to come. Apparently the knives are out for Theresa May ( see ft.com) , so soon we'll have the third chancer in office to derail things further..

 

 

 

I think we are now game on for a second referendum, perhaps with a revised FOM clause from the EU. Basically May has been shown to be incompetent and David is now looking like a failure. 16% of the article 50 time has gone, and nothing has been achieved and we are heading into summer.

When the working class have to eat their own turds to survive, I suspect that will be time for the vote.

Sky were running interviews in Sheffield and a lot of Brexiters and non voters seem to now favour remain. Time to take Brexit out to the back of the woodshed.

Ironic if Tony Blair turns out to be like Flash Gordon, Saviour of the Universe.

 

 

[RiskArb]

8 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

I think we are now game on for a second referendum, perhaps with a revised FOM clause from the EU. Basically May has been shown to be incompetent and David is now looking like a failure. 16% of the article 50 time has gone, and nothing has been achieved and we are heading into summer.

When the working class have to eat their own turds to survive, I suspect that will be time for the vote.

Sky were running interviews in Sheffield and a lot of Brexiters and non voters seem to now favour remain. Time to take Brexit out to the back of the woodshed.

Ironic if Tony Blair turns out to be like Flash Gordon, Saviour of the Universe.

 

 

Absolute tripe from you as usual, there is absolutely zero mandate for a second referendum - it's not going to happen and in your heart of hearts you know it. You need to accept the new reality, quit hoping and start moving on and getting used to life outside the EU comfort blanket. Another referendum assumes that a Remain vote returns us to the status quo before the original referendum, that state no longer exists and other EU countries will enjoy putting the boot in and forcing us to join the Euro, cancelling the rebate etc. in order to rejoin the fold - the time has passed and that ship has sailed.

Nothing is going to be achieved during this negotiation, we all know that. The EU is just spinning things out and wasting time until eventually its March 2019 and we all go home and have left the EU, deal or no deal. Come September and the 'Repeal Act' makes its way through the houses, EU primacy will have come to an end - there is no going back.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

28 minutes ago, RiskArb said:

Absolute tripe from you as usual, there is absolutely zero mandate for a second referendum - it's not going to happen and in your heart of hearts you know it. You need to accept the new reality, quit hoping and start moving on and getting used to life outside the EU comfort blanket. Another referendum assumes that a Remain vote returns us to the status quo before the original referendum, that state no longer exists and other EU countries will enjoy putting the boot in and forcing us to join the Euro, cancelling the rebate etc. in order to rejoin the fold - the time has passed and that ship has sailed.

Nothing is going to be achieved during this negotiation, we all know that. The EU is just spinning things out and wasting time until eventually its March 2019 and we all go home and have left the EU, deal or no deal. Come September and the 'Repeal Act' makes its way through the houses, EU primacy will have come to an end - there is no going back.

You will be proved wrong.

[Peter Hun]

38 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I think we are now game on for a second referendum, perhaps with a revised FOM clause from the EU. Basically May has been shown to be incompetent and David is now looking like a failure. 16% of the article 50 time has gone, and nothing has been achieved and we are heading into summer.

The election WAS a second referendum.

May presented her plan and asked for a Mandate to implement it.

It was rejected.

There HAS to be either a new election or referendum to give a clear Mandate for Brexit.

It HAS to include an explicit plan. 

A referendum on retaining Single Market membership over FoM would resolve the issue without discolouring by party affiliation in another election

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 minute ago, Peter Hun said:

The election WAS a second referendum.

May presented her plan and asked for a Mandate to implement it.

It was rejected.

There HAS to be either a new election or referendum to give a clear Mandate for Brexit.

It HAS to include an explicit plan. 

A referendum on retaining Single Market membership over FoM would resolve the issue without discolouring by party affiliation in another election

 

Not really, there is a lot of evidence people were voting on a policy basis rather than Brexit.

A second referendum is definitely needed to give clarity and settle the issue. 

I think we will get one once the disaster of the Brexit negotiations is revealed.

[pig]

43 minutes ago, RiskArb said:

Absolute tripe from you as usual, there is absolutely zero mandate for a second referendum - it's not going to happen and in your heart of hearts you know it. You need to accept the new reality, quit hoping and start moving on and getting used to life outside the EU comfort blanket. Another referendum assumes that a Remain vote returns us to the status quo before the original referendum, that state no longer exists and other EU countries will enjoy putting the boot in and forcing us to join the Euro, cancelling the rebate etc. in order to rejoin the fold - the time has passed and that ship has sailed.

Nothing is going to be achieved during this negotiation, we all know that. The EU is just spinning things out and wasting time until eventually its March 2019 and we all go home and have left the EU, deal or no deal. Come September and the 'Repeal Act' makes its way through the houses, EU primacy will have come to an end - there is no going back.

Yeah well I think we figured out some time ago there's a high likelihood of  achieving turd sandwiches through Brexit  for the next half century - the question now is how do we avoid and have the imagination to aspire to something better.

[ZeroSumGame]

From what I've heard on the grapevine, is that a second referendum is looking likely once whatever shape or form of BREXIT is in place.

IMHO, if the Tory party are to find a new leader, then they could do with someone like Sir John Major, who handled a similar Tory revolt in the 90s. As a former Tory adviser just said, there's greater talent on the back benches than there is in the cabinet.

I don't know who that person is, but he/she is sorely needed to get the ship off the rocks at high tide. Big Beast of the Tory back-benches step forward now !

 

[HairyOb1]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40604375

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40610573

 

Nothing to see here, we're just remoaners....

[rollover]

1 hour ago, RiskArb said:

Absolute tripe from you as usual, there is absolutely zero mandate for a second referendum - it's not going to happen and in your heart of hearts you know it. You need to accept the new reality, quit hoping and start moving on and getting used to life outside the EU comfort blanket. Another referendum assumes that a Remain vote returns us to the status quo before the original referendum, that state no longer exists and other EU countries will enjoy putting the boot in and forcing us to join the Euro, cancelling the rebate etc. in order to rejoin the fold - the time has passed and that ship has sailed.

Nothing is going to be achieved during this negotiation, we all know that. The EU is just spinning things out and wasting time until eventually its March 2019 and we all go home and have left the EU, deal or no deal. Come September and the 'Repeal Act' makes its way through the houses, EU primacy will have come to an end - there is no going back.

I think it's the other way round, it's the UK who is wasting time.

[rollover]

How is the government handling Brexit?

Well 18%    Daily Mail

[pig]

10 hours ago, Maynardgravy said:

Unfortunately we don't seem to get informed voters in any situation. How difficult is it to DYOR these days to get a basic grasp?

I've always thought it would be a good idea to have a couple of simple multi-choice questions on any ballot paper - What is Schengen? What is TTIP? Fail that and your vote in null and void.

You also seem to infer that many voters didn't know what they were voting as if this never happens anywhere else? I know loads of tory and labour voters (I don't vote in elections any more) who don't seem to have a clue what they're voting for. Doesn't mean elections get rerun, and governments u-turn all the time.

No really - I've probably spent the last year or so working out what we've really done to ourselves - and I'm still learning. Totally different from the run of the mill familiar gamble threshed out over decades in national elections.

For example a big big  surprise was that I'd fallen for the eurosceptic bull on the European Commision whereas in contrast for example, I have a much more nuanced understanding of the Bank of England.

[pig]

29 minutes ago, rollover said:

How is the government handling Brexit?

Well 18%    Daily Mail

Interesting that 47% vs 53% prefer a hard Brexit whereas only 35% vs 65% think no deal bettter than a bad deal. 

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, RiskArb said:

Absolute tripe from you as usual, there is absolutely zero mandate for a second referendum - it's not going to happen and in your heart of hearts you know it. You need to accept the new reality, quit hoping and start moving on and getting used to life outside the EU comfort blanket. Another referendum assumes that a Remain vote returns us to the status quo before the original referendum, that state no longer exists and other EU countries will enjoy putting the boot in and forcing us to join the Euro, cancelling the rebate etc. in order to rejoin the fold - the time has passed and that ship has sailed.

Nothing is going to be achieved during this negotiation, we all know that. The EU is just spinning things out and wasting time until eventually its March 2019 and we all go home and have left the EU, deal or no deal. Come September and the 'Repeal Act' makes its way through the houses, EU primacy will have come to an end - there is no going back.

Whatever happens we will not be leaving the EU in two years time, simply because it is an impossible task.

Six months ago the civil service departments had identified over 150,000 man years (or FTE years in civil service terms) of work on the projects that will be necessary to untangle ourselves from the EU.  The number was so scary that they were instructed not to produce a single list of all the work required in case it leaked.

The true size of the work is still unknown but the number is growing week by week as departments discover now areas that will be impacted.  

The following article hints at the scale of the problem, it doesn't put a number on the long transition period before we leave, as again it is considered too contentious to directly raise, but within the civil service talk is now of 15-20 years.    

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/15/brexit-disaster-theresa-may-gus-o-donnell-civil-service

NB Interesting that he raises the risk of an Autumn breakdown in the talks, fits nicely with the date predicted by the very unofficial sweepstake being run within the DexEU I posted a couple of weeks ago. 

 

[Sancho Panza]

9 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Whatever happens we will not be leaving the EU in two years time, simply because it is an impossible task.

Six months ago the civil service departments had identified over 150,000 man years (or FTE years in civil service terms) of work on the projects that will be necessary to untangle ourselves from the EU.  The number was so scary that they were instructed not to produce a single list of all the work required in case it leaked.

The true size of the work is still unknown but the number is growing week by week as departments discover now areas that will be impacted.  

The following article hints at the scale of the problem, it doesn't put a number on the long transition period before we leave, as again it is considered too contentious to directly raise, but within the civil service talk is now of 15-20 years.    

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/15/brexit-disaster-theresa-may-gus-o-donnell-civil-service

NB Interesting that he raises the risk of an Autumn breakdown in the talks, fits nicely with the date predicted by the very unofficial sweepstake being run within the DexEU I posted a couple of weeks ago. 

 

Knocking buildings down always goes a lot quicker than putting them up.

All you're really doing here is showing 

1) how woefully inefficient the civil service can be

2) that project fear lives on even though it's first incarnation failed to win even with virtually eveything going in it's favour-Westminster,BBC etc etc

[Confusion of VIs]

4 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Knocking buildings down always goes a lot quicker than putting them up.

All you're really doing here is showing 

1) how woefully inefficient the civil service can be

2) that project fear lives on even though it's first incarnation failed to win even with virtually eveything going in it's favour-Westminster,BBC etc etc

1   a) I assume that's based on your own prejudices rather than any real knowledge  b ) it's the only one we have and no one else is going to do the work

2  of course it lives on, it's the reality that we are rapidly approaching.     

[ccc]

The pant wetting continues. 

Get over it. It's happening. Whether you like it or not. 

[ExiledMatty]

8 hours ago, pig said:

hey lets team up with 'anglophone' countries

As a nation, we have more in common with the anglo countries than we do with the likes of EU countries such as France.

This is still the case despite having been in bed with them since 1973 (only after Charles de Gaulle's resignation!).

France doesn't even like us. It's been reported that they are trying to crush The City. 

They are probably still smarting over French not being the global language.

C'est la vie France!