Are The Shires Crashing ?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

12 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I thought the sums did add up for you at £601k. That makes it within your £175 a sq foot if at £695k it's only "£80k overpriced". The £175 a foot must be down to £143 now. Is it £1 per foot per HPC type news headline 

That;s the thinking of the house price mania.

"it's only "£80k overpriced""

Most people work a lifetime to save £80K.

That 80K it normally about £500 pcm in interest, a good chunk of most peoples take home pay.

My rent is not that much more than £500 for decent home.

I get your point tho, but I have no intention of buying a house now, massive risk got bigger when Corbyn nearly came to power.  You could buy now only to find your nice big garden being taxed heavily.

I should really have said £175 per sq foot was my target price.  

I have no target price now as I am now past the point of wanting to own a house.  It's a mugs game now.  Unless of course prices high ROCK BOTTOM, that would mitigate against tax rises and stagnant prices for the next 30 years

Edited July 11, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That;s the thinking of the house price mania.

"it's only "£80k overpriced""

Most people work a lifetime to save £80K.

That 80K it normally about £500 pcm in interest, a good chunk of most peoples take home pay.

My rent is not that much more than £500 for decent home.

I get your point tho, but I have no intention of buying a house now, massive risk got bigger when Corbyn nearly came to power.  You could buy now only to find your nice big garden being taxed heavily.

I should really have said £175 per sq foot was my target price.  

I have no target price now as I am now past the point of wanting to own a house.  It's a mugs game now.  Unless of course prices high ROCK BOTTOM, that would mitigate against tax rises and stagnant prices for the next 30 years

Hang on a minute.... I wasn't minimising the £80k, it was you who said it was "only £80k over priced", I was only quoting you. Also £175 a square foot isn't my target, it's what you have often said is yours. This house must be the first one in ages that's fairly near your ballpark, let's hope there are a lot more to follow. 

[Flopsy]

Meanwhile, in the areas of Bucks and Beds I am looking at things are largely at stalemate. We have been here before with very few sales. When this happened before LR showed me that very few of the properties that went "SSTC" actually sold but the ones that did sell were at higher and higher prices. 

It's too soon to know what is happening now. There are some major differences today however in the 4 br market.

I've written before about the "un-sellable" 4 bedroom houses in Milton Keynes. Priced at over 375k they are sitting on the market and very rarely go "under offer". I occasionally go into a local EA office and last week overheard the following conversation

EA - "you need to drop the price, a house on at (I think it was) 450,000 needs to have a large garden or a conservatory"

Seller - "but I need to have 450,000"

EA- "you need to drop the asking price to 425,000 or no one will view it"

Seller - "I can't do that"

When they saw me they shut up after that. The seller left in a large sports car shortly after that.

That particular agent has no properties with "sold" in the window at all and the ones that are there have been sitting since the spring. A new one is added each week. When they disappear from his window it's because they have given up and gone to another agent. 

The only properties going "under offer" on my Rightmove search (in a reliable fashion) are those sub 250k. 

Edited July 11, 2017 by Flopsy

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hang on a minute.... I wasn't minimising the £80k, it was you who said it was "only £80k over priced",

True, Sorry, I wasnt having a go.  I must be brainwashed !!!!

When did £80K loose any value.

You can see my point, that is the first house in ages that has been near my target price.  It's far too expensive for most people to buy anyway, but it puts some downward pressie on less expensive houses  is in s**t areas.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Flopsy said:

 

The only properties going "under offer" on my Rightmove search (in a reliable fashion) are those sub 250k. 

And let me guess, they are being bought by the top end professionals who can't afford anything else !!!

[yodigo]

4 hours ago, Flopsy said:

Meanwhile, in the areas of Bucks and Beds I am looking at things are largely at stalemate. We have been here before with very few sales. When this happened before LR showed me that very few of the properties that went "SSTC" actually sold but the ones that did sell were at higher and higher prices. 

It's too soon to know what is happening now. There are some major differences today however in the 4 br market.

I've written before about the "un-sellable" 4 bedroom houses in Milton Keynes. Priced at over 375k they are sitting on the market and very rarely go "under offer". I occasionally go into a local EA office and last week overheard the following conversation

EA - "you need to drop the price, a house on at (I think it was) 450,000 needs to have a large garden or a conservatory"

Seller - "but I need to have 450,000"

EA- "you need to drop the asking price to 425,000 or no one will view it"

Seller - "I can't do that"

When they saw me they shut up after that. The seller left in a large sports car shortly after that.

That particular agent has no properties with "sold" in the window at all and the ones that are there have been sitting since the spring. A new one is added each week. When they disappear from his window it's because they have given up and gone to another agent. 

The only properties going "under offer" on my Rightmove search (in a reliable fashion) are those sub 250k. 

They're still ramping like crazy in Milton Keynes. One on Rightmove for £300,000, but it sold for £250,000 in June 2016. No obvious improvements to justify a 20% increase. Another on the same road on for £320,000, the highest price for the road is £260,000 in August 2016. Both in the good half of Conniburrow. If you've not been there, and are in the area, have a look, on second thoughts don't waste your time. MK - they took some lovely countryside and built little more than a giant shopping centre surrounded by slums.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

20 minutes ago, yodigo said:

 MK - they took some lovely countryside and built little more than a giant shopping centre surrounded by slums.

Better than Northampton tho....Sh*t shopping center surrounded by an eastern european ghetto in turn surrounded by slums.

Someone else where was saying the MK makrte had died.

We are in the death throws of a collapsing market.

Many will eventually think themselves lucky they didnt trade up at these crazy prices

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 hours ago, SoldTooSoon said:

Just did my daily Rightmove search to see what has come on to the market in my area (North Herts\South Beds) in the last 24 hours to find 2 properties that I consider desireable re-listed at discounted prices.

1.  Town Centre apartment asking price reduced from £330,000 to £300,000

2.  Maisonette on private estate asking price reduced from £279,995 to £259,995

Not so long ago these would have sold in no time with potential purchasers bidding above asking price!

It seems to be happening.  Now the dilemma, do I go in now with a low ball offer, say £250K for number 1 or £225K for number 2 or wait and see if there is going to be a proper correction and possibly pick up something like these in 12-18 months time for under £200K?

 

 

 

Those prices are crazy.  people earning 20/30K tops should be buying those places.  You have to be a millionaire to be able to afford to live in Bedford  

[neuvilla]

Some interesting data in this latest report on Cambridge property market:

Edition 33, published July 2017 (Mar 2017 data)

Take home points seems to be that prices are still going up but sales have fallen off a cliff. So I guess we should see some big drops in prices in the next report. 

[simon49]

On ‎11‎/‎07‎/‎2017 at 11:04 AM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Offer 501K so that can see that got £501K for it.

 

I like this game

I wont offer on a house till we see a REAL crash. I want to see pain in the EAs eyes.  I want them to beg like they did in 2007/2008.

The sums dont add up for me.

Same here, a house is the price of a farm and a car is the price of a house. The decimal point needs to shift 1 place to the left to reach reality, for me anyway.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 minutes ago, simon49 said:

Same here, a house is the price of a farm and a car is the price of a house. The decimal point needs to shift 1 place to the left to reach reality, for me anyway.

There's certainly something going on in Northants, most of the listings look like failed sales now and lots of price reductions, I cant see this trend stopping any time soon.

 

[Calcutta]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

There's certainly something going on in Northants, most of the listings look like failed sales now and lots of price reductions, I cant see this trend stopping any time soon.

 

There's definitely something going on. The flats I keep an eye on in Corby/Kettering went up from 50/60 to 70/80 between 2014 to 2016. Normally a standard dozen or so on RM. Then the rush before stamp duty. Since then nothing has moved for 18 months except the ones that have been withdrawn. (One place I was watching vanished, I was a bit concerned it'd sold, had a walk past, found the 'For Sale' sign smashed down in the garden.)

The last week or so the number of flats on RM has doubled easily, all at stupid prices, some existing listings that haven't moved in a year have actually been put up by 10% and unless I'm losing my mind there are places popping up and going SSTC straight away.

Everybody knows the game's on now. Evictions left right and centre, BTLs being sold without ever being listed, signs for 'we buy any craphole being cable tied to lamposts.

Is this how a crash starts? I've lived thru two but I never had a dog in the fight before so didn't take much notice.

 

[Beaker]

Hey SoldtooSoon, I'm in the same location as you. Are you using property bee on rightmove? Makes some fantastic reading. Seeing huge reductions on asking prices in Hitchin at the moment as (I think) London buyers have largely dried up. 2 beds on my street and the adjacent one reaching £500k 9 months ago, now being reduced down to 410/425ka nd still not selling. Only problem is low end of market 250-300k houses still being snapped up quite quickly. Flats tanking though.

[Barnsey]

Been keeping my eye on Kingston (upon Thames) and the number of 1 and 2 bed flats being reduced is impressive, the sell off has begun but there's no foreign buyers to snap them up, and FTBers such as myself simply can't (and won't) pay £350k upwards for a 1 bed, so much more downward momentum to come. 2/3 bed homes in Suburbia holding firm for now, as expected.

[adarmo]

26 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Been keeping my eye on Kingston (upon Thames) and the number of 1 and 2 bed flats being reduced is impressive, the sell off has begun but there's no foreign buyers to snap them up, and FTBers such as myself simply can't (and won't) pay £350k upwards for a 1 bed, so much more downward momentum to come. 2/3 bed homes in Suburbia holding firm for now, as expected.

Broadly what I'm seeing in the Wokingham area. Many flats under £350k are reduced but not really hanging around. Things £400k upwards are not being reduced but are sticking around. One was even returned to the market after being sold and upped the price £10k!! I guess once people are in family homes they can sit it out. If people are renting then the view is (I'm guessing) may as well buy now and fix for three years instead of bombing a load more cash on rent. 

Personally I would not like to be down in the rugby scrum that is the FTB/BTL segment. The BTL rules changing will create sell offs at the margins and many FTBs are being rightly cautious right now. 

[Barnsey]

Another area of interest I'm following is rather close to you, RG5. Semi-detached (according to Zoopla) up a staggering 43.27% in just 4 years, and have since stagnated for past 12 months.

I'm glad you've found something you can hold onto for the long term, going to be an interesting one to watch.

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Beaker said:

Hey SoldtooSoon, I'm in the same location as you. Are you using property bee on rightmove? Makes some fantastic reading. Seeing huge reductions on asking prices in Hitchin at the moment as (I think) London buyers have largely dried up. 2 beds on my street and the adjacent one reaching £500k 9 months ago, now being reduced down to 410/425ka nd still not selling. Only problem is low end of market 250-300k houses still being snapped up quite quickly. Flats tanking though.

FTBs in a given area will have a typical budget, so a small number of properties will always sell if they fall into that price range. That's how I explain some of the crazy SSTC I see in my area! Some people just want to get on the ladder even if their £300k only gets a crappy terrace  rather than a lovely semi. The proportion of FTBs buying will reduce as prices continue to drop... They'll gradually realise they'll get more for their money if they wait.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I've discovered Harpenden recently  ( On RM ).

I've never seen so much massively over priced **** in my life.

I've never been to the place, it must be amazing tho, judging by the price of the houses.

Just seen this one thi

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41494434.html

20/07/2017,	Price changed: Guide Price £835,000 £795,000
06/06/2017,	Price changed: Guide Price £895,000 £835,000
21/11/2016,	Price changed: Guide Price £985,000 £895,000
05/10/2016,	Price changed: Guide Price £1,250,000 £985,000
21/05/2016,	Initial entry found.

 

Even for an 800K house that's some price drop, 36% drop in asking price.

 

Says Harpenden but the map says Luton to me

 

Still that one's making the s**t round Northants look expensive now.

The tide has turned.

[Toast]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I've discovered Harpenden recently  ( On RM ).

I've never seen so much massively over priced **** in my life.

Just another dormitory town for London on the Bedford-St Pancras Thamelink line. Probably a nice town, but nowhere near as nice as St Albans. I say "probably", because it will be terra incognita, as I can't imagine anyone has ever visited it other than to sleep over for the day job in the big smoke.

Luton and Wellingborough used to be reasonably cheap, as the massive drag factor of being unreconstructed '80's sink-hole time machines was enough to counter the force of London commuter salaries, so Harpenden is probably a much nicer place than those two.

In recent years, it seems that all the prices along that line have equalised at astronomical levels. Come the crash, I think you'll lose a lot less on a £500k house in St Albans than one at the same price in Luton - and I think you'll lose a fair old amount on the former.

[When???]

I live in St Albans and nearly everyone I know who's bought in past few years are ex-London so well and truly seeing the impact of London price rises in the local market. Wonder how long until that ripple will start to work in reverse? Prices are insane here but the market appears to be slower than a few months ago - houses are selling but generally taking longer and there are definitely more price reductions, albeit still at crazy levels. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

8 minutes ago, When??? said:

I live in St Albans and nearly everyone I know who's bought in past few years are ex-London so well and truly seeing the impact of London price rises in the local market. Wonder how long until that ripple will start to work in reverse? Prices are insane here but the market appears to be slower than a few months ago - houses are selling but generally taking longer and there are definitely more price reductions, albeit still at crazy levels. 

St Albans, is different then.  

 

[bobbo]

29 minutes ago, When??? said:

I live in St Albans and nearly everyone I know who's bought in past few years are ex-London so well and truly seeing the impact of London price rises in the local market. Wonder how long until that ripple will start to work in reverse? Prices are insane here but the market appears to be slower than a few months ago - houses are selling but generally taking longer and there are definitely more price reductions, albeit still at crazy levels. 

I ex0ect all the new flats will bring prices down. No idea who is buying them but the leasehold development by the station is massively overpriced even if the target market is footballers.

Shires crashing has for a long time been a big N. O. for St Albans but looks like it might have peaked late 2016. Still flatlining but if values come off in St Albans then Luton will be toast. 

Harpeneden has always been a bit more expensive than St Albans. A better type of people I suppose. 

 

[stop_the_craziness]

These areas are all familiar to me and I have lived in several of them.

Everyone is massively up themselves and super-competitive.

They will cling on like grim death to their belief they have "made it" in life by living there

If a crash comes it will literally blow people's minds in a way I don't think they will ever recover from.

The status crash aspect will be as hard to accept as the financial aspect for so many of my ex-neighbours in Hertfordshire

IF it comes.

Because I "cashed out" of this lifestyle financially and spiritually over 10 years ago I have endured a DECADE of tilty-headed sympathy from these people still "living the dream"

I would love the tables to turn.  I fear that they won't.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

8 minutes ago, stop_the_craziness said:

These areas are all familiar to me and I have lived in several of them.

Everyone is massively up themselves and super-competitive.

They will cling on like grim death to their belief they have "made it" in life by living there

If a crash comes it will literally blow people's minds in a way I don't think they will ever recover from.

The status crash aspect will be as hard to accept as the financial aspect for so many of my ex-neighbours in Hertfordshire

IF it comes.

Because I "cashed out" of this lifestyle financially and spiritually over 10 years ago I have endured a DECADE of tilty-headed sympathy from these people still "living the dream"

I would love the tables to turn.  I fear that they won't.

Lots of drops/failed sais in Harpenden and St Albans.

 

The indexes can say +++ all they like, the SE and London and in real trouble.

 

First for listens for Harpenden are:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-65511287.html

22/06/2017,	Status changed: from 'Sold STC' to 'Available'
27/04/2017,	Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Sold STC'
28/03/2017,	Initial entry found.

 

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-48110649.html

20/07/2017,	Price changed: Guide Price £2,250,000 Offers in Excess of £2,000,000
21/05/2017,	Brief Description changed: Roselyon is an impressive country house located on the edge of the desirable town of Harpenden and overlooking Harpenden Golf Course. View now or at Strutt & Parker's National Open House Day on Saturday 13th May, from 11am to 3pm.
12/05/2017,	Brief Description changed: Roselyon is an impressive country house located on the edge of the desirable town of Harpenden and overlooking Harpenden Golf Course. View now or at Strutt & Parker's National Open House Day on Saturday 13th May, from 11am to 3pm.
25/04/2017,	Initial entry found.

 

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59871532.html

19/07/2017,	Price changed: Guide Price £1,690,000 £1,650,000
07/07/2017,	Price changed: Guide Price £1,720,000 £1,690,000
21/05/2017,	Initial entry found.

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-67391699.html

21/07/2017,	Agent changed: John Curtis - – in assoc. with Hamptons
20/07/2017,	Price changed: Guide Price £1,475,000 £1,375,000
07/07/2017,	Initial entry found.

 

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Same sort of stuff in St Albands

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64682366.html

 

20/07/2017,	Price changed: Guide Price £950,000 £930,000
30/06/2017,	Status changed: from 'Under offer' to 'Available'
06/04/2017,	Price changed: £950,000   Price changed: Guide Price £950,000
10/03/2017,	Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Under offer'
15/02/2017,	Initial entry found.

 

 

Peoples idea of having "made it" might need re-aligning. For me, paying 900K to live in a s**t terrace house and pay 14 quid for a burger is not "making it", it's being "take for a mug",