Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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Rightmove average time to sell in London published today as part of Feb 2018 report: 

75 days in Feb 2018 vs 64 days in Feb 2017 (up 17%)

The annual rate of increase in time taken to sell has been 17% or above since December 2016, barring a blip in July 2017. 

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2 hours ago, Patient London FTB said:

Rightmove average time to sell in London published today as part of Feb 2018 report: 

75 days in Feb 2018 vs 64 days in Feb 2017 (up 17%)

The annual rate of increase in time taken to sell has been 17% or above since December 2016, barring a blip in July 2017. 

I wonder if that is that is time to SSTC or time to completion. I would not think RM keeps track of its properties beyond any changes to status made by dishonest and lazy EAs. I think these figures will be highly dodgy, although they do probably show a general lengthening of time fully available for sale on RM. 

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3 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

It claims that the smallest is in Westminster and is on sale through CBRE for £1.04m and measures just 416 square feet; “that’s a fifth of the size of a singles tennis court” says the online firm.

 

:o

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Realistically how long can these home builders survive without selling these flats, surely there comes a tipping point as the are not exactly flying off of the shelf 

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4 minutes ago, Jabbabhoy said:

Realistically how long can these home builders survive without selling these flats, surely there comes a tipping point as the are not exactly flying off of the shelf 

have you been to Spain ?

have you seen the swathes of unfinished flats/properties there ?

The UK is no different to anywhere else, actually it's MUCH worse than other places, the prices are extreme.

We will see a massive collapse, 50%+ off, a la Spain etc.

It is an inevitable consequence of a sub-prime investment bubble.


People refuse to believe it, refuse to accept it.  They are wrong.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

have you been to Spain ?

have you seen the swathes of unfinished flats/properties there ?

The UK is no different to anywhere else, actually it's MUCH worse than other places, the prices are extreme.

We will see a massive collapse, 50%+ off, a la Spain etc.

It is an inevitable consequence of a sub-prime investment bubble.


People refuse to believe it, refuse to accept it.  They are wrong.

 

 

as long as there is credit available sheeple will keep buying

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8 minutes ago, Jabbabhoy said:

Realistically how long can these home builders survive without selling these flats, surely there comes a tipping point as the are not exactly flying off of the shelf 

They won't survive, they'll go bust, buyers will be left in half completed developments of properties worth less than they paid, off plan buyers will lose their deposits and lenders/shareholders will lose their shirts.

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5 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

as long as there is credit available sheeple will keep buying

As far as I can make out. liquidity is being drained.

Edited by TonyJ

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4 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

As far as I can make out. liquidity is being drained.

I've been excited about prices coming down before, but it seems that this time around the planets are all aligning:

- BTL is being hammered

- IR are rising

- Mortgages assessments massively curbed borrowing capability (thank god)

- global economy not doing so well

- Foreign investors losing appetite

And more. 

 

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3 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

I've been excited about prices coming down before, but it seems that this time around the planets are all aligning:

- BTL is being hammered

- IR are rising

- Mortgages assessments massively curbed borrowing capability (thank god)

- global economy not doing so well

- Foreign investors losing appetite

And more. 

 

are interest rates  going to rise? they may go up 0.5 this year but that is not going to cause fire sales

inflation is reducing  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43468504 so the bank wont be keen to raise rates above 1% I think

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2 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

are interest rates  going to rise? they may go up 0.5 this year but that is not going to cause fire sales

inflation is reducing  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43468504 so the bank wont be keen to raise rates above 1% I think

Possibly. And I've been wrong before. The only way the "crash" can happen is with the Tories acceptance that the only way they can not be annihilated by the worst Labour in history is to reverse the decline in living standards for the young. That means lower house prices. Hard. 

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3 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

I've been excited about prices coming down before, but it seems that this time around the planets are all aligning:

- BTL is being hammered

- IR are rising

- Mortgages assessments massively curbed borrowing capability (thank god)

- global economy not doing so well

- Foreign investors losing appetite

And more. 

 

It does look convincingly like prices are have started their time worn cycle of peaking in London, then falling, with the same pattern rippling gradually through the rest of the country. Bear markets, whether in the stock market or housing market, are always accompanied by a familiar pattern of protest by market shills, who unsuccessfully try to stop the reversal.

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8 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

are interest rates  going to rise? they may go up 0.5 this year but that is not going to cause fire sales

inflation is reducing  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43468504 so the bank wont be keen to raise rates above 1% I think

Nobody knows where the pain threshold is. The suspicion is that we have already started entered pain territory after only a 0.25% rise.

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1 minute ago, TonyJ said:

Nobody knows where the pain threshold is. The suspicion is that we have already started entered pain territory after only a 0.25% rise.

wow, I was not aware of that. that is bonkers! just confirms what  I said earlier, if people get access to credit then they will continue, I imagine very few looked at the illustration showing what would happen if rates rise, they were more concerned with how much can I borrow now!

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7 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

Possibly. And I've been wrong before. The only way the "crash" can happen is with the Tories acceptance that the only way they can not be annihilated by the worst Labour in history is to reverse the decline in living standards for the young. That means lower house prices. Hard. 

I do think that maybe, just maybe, TPTB are beginning to realise that unless house prices become more affordable (by coming down), TPTB will suffer a worse fate than they would if they propped them up. 

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3 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

wow, I was not aware of that. that is bonkers! just confirms what  I said earlier, if people get access to credit then they will continue, I imagine very few looked at the illustration showing what would happen if rates rise, they were more concerned with how much can I borrow now!

The more borrowing, the lower the pain threshold becomes. Since everyone and everything is now massively over-borrowed, the pain threshold is probably massively low. However, the authorities will not necessarily ease off just because people are in pain. There may be more compelling pressure to keep raising IRs, despite the increasing pain.

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1 minute ago, TonyJ said:

The more borrowing, the lower the pain threshold becomes. Since everyone and everything is now massively over-borrowed, the pain threshold is probably massively low. However, the authorities will not necessarily ease off just because people are in pain. There may be more compelling pressure to keep raising IRs, despite the increasing pain.

having seen the crash in Ireland, there will be a backlash if people are kicked out of their "homes". there will be more extending mortgage terms if at all possible to allow them to continue to live their dream

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Just now, hurlerontheditch said:

having seen the crash in Ireland, there will be a backlash if people are kicked out of their "homes". there will be more extending mortgage terms if at all possible to allow them to continue to live their dream

I predict shared ownership becoming an option.

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1 minute ago, hurlerontheditch said:

having seen the crash in Ireland, there will be a backlash if people are kicked out of their "homes". there will be more extending mortgage terms if at all possible to allow them to continue to live their dream

If over-borrowed businesses go under, will the unemployed be given mortgage holidays until they can pay their mortgage payments, which in many cases may be never? In this case, the mortgage banks would probably go under and the debts would be called in by the administrators.

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Just now, TonyJ said:

If over-borrowed businesses go under, will the unemployed be given mortgage holidays until they can pay their mortgage payments, which in many cases may be never? In this case, the mortgage banks would probably go under and the debts would be called in by the administrators.

state will take over non performing mortgages like Nama did in Ireland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Asset_Management_Agency

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7 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

having seen the crash in Ireland, there will be a backlash if people are kicked out of their "homes". there will be more extending mortgage terms if at all possible to allow them to continue to live their dream

You think there will be a backlash as BTLers and eastern Europeans are thrown on the bonfire ?

 

I'd wager a lot of the EE will head off never to be seen again.  Their debts eventually written off.

 

 

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