Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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36 minutes ago, North London Rent Girl said:

That is gorgeous - and he seems to have written for some, what do we call them now, proper publications, he's not just some nutter sounding off. A tone that matches the catastrophe of it, so rare! Lovely bear food, yummy scrummy in my tummy.

If they read articles like this one, MSM journalists should soon (belatedly) realise the zeitgeist has changed. Once the penny drops, I am sure they will jump on the bandwagon.

Edited by TonyJ

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4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Bloke at work just told me the London bubble was collapsing.

 

I kid you not.

London 2018 = Tokyo 1990 IMO.

Anyone deluded into thinking London is 'different' because there's more demand than supply needs to consider:

i) there's only demand for real estate when prices are rising (a core fact that escapes the Pollyannas repeatedly)

ii) far more people packed into far smaller space in the capital of a country with a bigger economy than ours - and also a major world financial centre - didn't matter a jot when the Japan RE bubble burst (see i)).

Gonna be interesting - the ripple outwards will of course happen in commuter Sh1tholes people don't want to live in but have been forced to and demand therein also drops off a cliff - Luton, I'm looking at you...

 

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7 minutes ago, zilly said:

London 2018 = Tokyo 1990 IMO.

Anyone deluded into thinking London is 'different' because there's more demand than supply needs to consider:

i) there's only demand for real estate when prices are rising (a core fact that escapes the Pollyannas repeatedly)

ii) far more people packed into far smaller space in the capital of a country with a bigger economy than ours - and also a major world financial centre - didn't matter a jot when the Japan RE bubble burst (see i)).

Gonna be interesting - the ripple outwards will of course happen in commuter Sh1tholes people don't want to live in but have been forced to and demand therein also drops off a cliff - Luton, I'm looking at you...

 

People who settled for Luton are going to be mighty pi$$ed off when they realise they could have waited and bought in Chelsea ;-)

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18 hours ago, Frizzers said:

Yes.

The final price on Gladstone Street is interesting. This was my template from back then - 

* They got it cheap, given the market at that time (2014 madness) for £910k . They're asking a lot at £1.25.

* Bears have scored the first goal, with price reduction. 1-0 up.

* If it gets, above £1.15 = market is ok, bulls win, 2-1.

* Around £1.1 = stagnant market, but it still sold. Draw.

* Closer to £1m = hard fought 2:1 victory for bears, but no pushover

* Below £1m, "you'll never walk alone". London is falling.

 

So given that it went for £998,000, I think we'll go with a 2:1 hard fought victory for the bears - which I think is about the state of the market.

With apologies to liverpool fans but could someone do a HPI-shilling version of this:

 

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On 20/02/2018 at 5:27 PM, zilly said:

London 2018 = Tokyo 1990 IMO.

Anyone deluded into thinking London is 'different' because there's more demand than supply needs to consider:

i) there's only demand for real estate when prices are rising (a core fact that escapes the Pollyannas repeatedly)

ii) far more people packed into far smaller space in the capital of a country with a bigger economy than ours - and also a major world financial centre - didn't matter a jot when the Japan RE bubble burst (see i)).

Gonna be interesting - the ripple outwards will of course happen in commuter Sh1tholes people don't want to live in but have been forced to and demand therein also drops off a cliff - Luton, I'm looking at you...

 

Ok I'll raise you

 

The SE of England 2018 = Japan 1990

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On 20/02/2018 at 6:04 PM, TonyJ said:

People who settled for Luton are going to be mighty pi$$ed off when they realise they could have waited and bought in Chelsea ;-)

Why would anyone wait to live there?......too long dead.;)

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27 minutes ago, winkie said:

Why would anyone wait to live there?......too long dead.;)

Rather be dead in Chelsea than alive in Luton.

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1 hour ago, TonyJ said:

Rather be dead in Chelsea than alive in Luton.

There is a whole world out there....nobody needs to be in either.;)

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On 20/02/2018 at 5:25 PM, TonyJ said:

If they read articles like this one, MSM journalists should soon (belatedly) realise the zeitgeist has changed. Once the penny drops, I am sure they will jump on the bandwagon.

Just as soon as they've jettisoned their btl flat/s!

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5 hours ago, Option5 said:

The crash has already happened for these developers, they just aren't facing up to it yet.

The problem (for us) is the developers still have the cash to wait it out. Either their funding comes from overseas or if they’re UK-based they swore off debt after nearly going under in 2009. 

To give the thread some love, I can say in my area (SE1) there are 25% more listings for sale than last year. Also I’m hearing more and more about developers who are being given back flats they thought they had sold. 

 

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Challenger house price index aims to become the new market authority for agents and others

Mar 7th 2018

A new monthly report that claims to offer a more up-to-date, more accurate and more comprehensive view of the housing market in England and Wales than those provided by the likes of Nationwide, RICS and Rightmove has launched.

Residential property investment firm London Central Portfolio has teamed up with Acadata to address what it calls “a number of conspicuous issues” with existing industry data.

LCP’s chief executive Naomi Heaton said: “Samples offered by high-end estate agents tend to be small and non-representative.

“Nationwide’s house price index represents just 12% of the market, excludes cash purchases and is based on mortgage approvals, not actual sales.

“Rightmove use asking prices data only, while RICS’ residential market survey is largely qualitative.

“Land Registry’s own published full report is based on a restricted sample, excludes new builds and has a longer time lag.”

She added: “Looking to overcome these problems and provide a single reliable residential index, our new report, based on every single sale transacted through Land Registry, will provide a much more accurate and in-depth analysis on how the market as a whole, including the controversial luxury and new build sectors, have really fared in prime central London, Greater London, England and Wales.”

The new index revealed that house prices in England and Wales recorded their third successive monthly price fall (at -1.4%) in December last year, resulting in the largest quarterly price fall since February 2009 (at -4.7%).

According to its data, the average house price in England and Wales is £284,855.

Not including London, the average house price in England and Wales is £250,797.

Meanwhile, LCP estimates that annual transactions fell 2.3% last year to 902,100, which is 29% below that prior to the global financial crisis.

On a quarterly basis, transactions in the final quarter of 2017 were down 3.8% to 236,899, it calculates.

Heaton said: “With prices and transactions both beginning to fall, there is a serious need to address the affordability issues within the sector and support the building of more low-cost housing outside London.”

LCP’s data showed that the market in Greater London was slowing, with transactions continuing to decrease.

They were down 7% over the quarter to 23,200 and 10% over the year to 93,381.

Average prices in Greater London fell below £600,000 for the first time since 2016 (£598,558), following a fall of 3.8% in the final quarter of last year.

Meanwhile, prices in prime central London stabilised during the same period, according to LCP.

Nonetheless, transactions were “significantly” down (by 9.5%) across the year to 4,183, which is the lowest number of annual sales on record and a 34% drop since 2013.

The new-build sector shows subdued activity in prime central London, with transactions down 13.4% and quarterly prices down 5%.

In England and Wales, the most recent figures for new-builds, which date from June 2017 (unlike overall monthly, quarterly and annual results, for which there is a two-month time lag, new build results lag by two quarters), showed that the price differential between new and old stock has reached nearly 30%.

New-builds in England and Wales are now 65% more expensive on average (£345,118) than they were in December 2006, compared to 38% more for old stock.

Heaton said that foreign investors who have bought new build property in London, Manchester and Birmingham were in many cases struggling to let them out for the rental yields they needed to achieve, and laid part of the blame on agents.

She said: “I am staggered by the fibs that are told to these foreign investors.”

Citing the example of a recent development in London, she said that the reputable firm of agents selling the units were quoting estimated gross rental returns of 4.3%.

In reality, investors would be “doing really well” to achieve 3.5% she said, and that rental estimates quoted by agents to foreign investors on new build properties were often “unattainable”.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/new-monthly-report-on-transactions-and-prices-claims-to-address-conspicuous-issues-with-industry-data/

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3 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

She said: “I am staggered by the fibs that are told to these foreign investors.”

 

Fibs? they're what little kids tell to avoid being in trouble, these are big fat lies

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11 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Challenger house price index aims to become the new market authority for agents and others

Mar 7th 2018

A new monthly report that claims to offer a more up-to-date, more accurate and more comprehensive view of the housing market in England and Wales than those provided by the likes of Nationwide, RICS and Rightmove has launched.

Residential property investment firm London Central Portfolio has teamed up with Acadata to address what it calls “a number of conspicuous issues” with existing industry data.

LCP’s chief executive Naomi Heaton said: “Samples offered by high-end estate agents tend to be small and non-representative.

“Nationwide’s house price index represents just 12% of the market, excludes cash purchases and is based on mortgage approvals, not actual sales.

“Rightmove use asking prices data only, while RICS’ residential market survey is largely qualitative.

“Land Registry’s own published full report is based on a restricted sample, excludes new builds and has a longer time lag.”

She added: “Looking to overcome these problems and provide a single reliable residential index, our new report, based on every single sale transacted through Land Registry, will provide a much more accurate and in-depth analysis on how the market as a whole, including the controversial luxury and new build sectors, have really fared in prime central London, Greater London, England and Wales.”

The new index revealed that house prices in England and Wales recorded their third successive monthly price fall (at -1.4%) in December last year, resulting in the largest quarterly price fall since February 2009 (at -4.7%).

According to its data, the average house price in England and Wales is £284,855.

Not including London, the average house price in England and Wales is £250,797.

Meanwhile, LCP estimates that annual transactions fell 2.3% last year to 902,100, which is 29% below that prior to the global financial crisis.

On a quarterly basis, transactions in the final quarter of 2017 were down 3.8% to 236,899, it calculates.

Heaton said: “With prices and transactions both beginning to fall, there is a serious need to address the affordability issues within the sector and support the building of more low-cost housing outside London.”

LCP’s data showed that the market in Greater London was slowing, with transactions continuing to decrease.

They were down 7% over the quarter to 23,200 and 10% over the year to 93,381.

Average prices in Greater London fell below £600,000 for the first time since 2016 (£598,558), following a fall of 3.8% in the final quarter of last year.

Meanwhile, prices in prime central London stabilised during the same period, according to LCP.

Nonetheless, transactions were “significantly” down (by 9.5%) across the year to 4,183, which is the lowest number of annual sales on record and a 34% drop since 2013.

The new-build sector shows subdued activity in prime central London, with transactions down 13.4% and quarterly prices down 5%.

In England and Wales, the most recent figures for new-builds, which date from June 2017 (unlike overall monthly, quarterly and annual results, for which there is a two-month time lag, new build results lag by two quarters), showed that the price differential between new and old stock has reached nearly 30%.

New-builds in England and Wales are now 65% more expensive on average (£345,118) than they were in December 2006, compared to 38% more for old stock.

Heaton said that foreign investors who have bought new build property in London, Manchester and Birmingham were in many cases struggling to let them out for the rental yields they needed to achieve, and laid part of the blame on agents.

She said: “I am staggered by the fibs that are told to these foreign investors.”

Citing the example of a recent development in London, she said that the reputable firm of agents selling the units were quoting estimated gross rental returns of 4.3%.

In reality, investors would be “doing really well” to achieve 3.5% she said, and that rental estimates quoted by agents to foreign investors on new build properties were often “unattainable”.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/new-monthly-report-on-transactions-and-prices-claims-to-address-conspicuous-issues-with-industry-data/

It's a good thing, no? What I would love is a daily index, with volume.

Edited by TonyJ

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Meanwhile, my fav development in N8 gets yet another round of reductions.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-70739177.html

635k -> 600k -> 585k since 26th of Dec

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63726556.html

600k -> 550k since late Jan

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52529370.html

590k -> 560k since late Jan, listed as detached house for some reason :)

 

Also, there's a recently opened Sainsbury's store in that development. I absolutely love it, there usually more staff than customers in there, except for weekends when it get's a slight uptick in footfall and the parking gets full. It looks like all the sales come from people driving from Crouch End/Muswell Hill/Wood Green. It was probably supposed to be a grocery Mekka for the locals from the development itself, but it seems that empty flats don't do as much shopping as one might think :)

 

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5 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Meanwhile, my fav development in N8 gets yet another round of reductions.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-70739177.html

635k -> 600k -> 585k since 26th of Dec

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63726556.html

600k -> 550k since late Jan

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52529370.html

590k -> 560k since late Jan, listed as detached house for some reason :)

 

Also, there's a recently opened Sainsbury's store in that development. I absolutely love it, there usually more staff than customers in there, except for weekends when it get's a slight uptick in footfall and the parking gets full. It looks like all the sales come from people driving from Crouch End/Muswell Hill/Wood Green. It was probably supposed to be a grocery Mekka for the locals from the development itself, but it seems that empty flats don't do as much shopping as one might think :)

 

It may be on reduced rent for a while. M&S Food in Imperial Wharf, Fulham shut down when it started having to pay rent, with little footfall.

Edited by TonyJ

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24 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Meanwhile, my fav development in N8 gets yet another round of reductions.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-70739177.html

635k -> 600k -> 585k since 26th of Dec

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63726556.html

600k -> 550k since late Jan

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52529370.html

590k -> 560k since late Jan, listed as detached house for some reason :)

 

Also, there's a recently opened Sainsbury's store in that development. I absolutely love it, there usually more staff than customers in there, except for weekends when it get's a slight uptick in footfall and the parking gets full. It looks like all the sales come from people driving from Crouch End/Muswell Hill/Wood Green. It was probably supposed to be a grocery Mekka for the locals from the development itself, but it seems that empty flats don't do as much shopping as one might think :)

 

£50K->£500K since 2000.

 

Ill pass, thanks.

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LSL Acadata:
-2.6% yoy London in Jan (from adjusted -1.0% in Nov)
+0.6% yoy England and Wales in Feb

They've recalculated and updated the mix adjustment this month, from weighting based on 13-16 transactions to 14-17. That has broadly decreased the average house price, by shifting away from SE.

http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL Acadata E&W HPI News Release February 18.pdf
http://www.acadata.co.uk/acadataHousePrices.php

 

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On 20/02/2018 at 9:47 AM, Frizzers said:

Yes.

The final price on Gladstone Street is interesting. This was my template from back then - 

* They got it cheap, given the market at that time (2014 madness) for £910k . They're asking a lot at £1.25.

* Bears have scored the first goal, with price reduction. 1-0 up.

* If it gets, above £1.15 = market is ok, bulls win, 2-1.

* Around £1.1 = stagnant market, but it still sold. Draw.

* Closer to £1m = hard fought 2:1 victory for bears, but no pushover

* Below £1m, "you'll never walk alone". London is falling.

 

So given that it went for £998,000, I think we'll go with a 2:1 hard fought victory for the bears - which I think is about the state of the market.

Gaywood Street has gone I think. Not sure this was the place in question, but 27 Gaywood Street sold in Dec for £1,075,000. Very respectably close to the £1.1m asking price if so. 

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10 hours ago, Patient London FTB said:

Gaywood Street has gone I think. Not sure this was the place in question, but 27 Gaywood Street sold in Dec for £1,075,000. Very respectably close to the £1.1m asking price if so. 

It's a slow down but not a crash. Yet

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