Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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9 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

“District 4: Where you can starve to death in safety.” 

Thirty years ago, aliens arrive on Earth -- not to conquer or give aid, but -- to find refuge from their dying planet. Separated from humans in a South African area called District 9, the aliens are managed by Multi-National United, which is unconcerned with the aliens' welfare but will do anything to master their advanced technology. When a company field agent (Sharlto Copley) contracts a mysterious virus that begins to alter his DNA, there is only one place he can hide: District 9.

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18 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Thirty years ago, aliens arrive on Earth -- not to conquer or give aid, but -- to find refuge from their dying planet. Separated from humans in a South African area called District 9, the aliens are managed by Multi-National United, which is unconcerned with the aliens' welfare but will do anything to master their advanced technology. When a company field agent (Sharlto Copley) contracts a mysterious virus that begins to alter his DNA, there is only one place he can hide: District 9.

loved that film when I first saw it, now all I see is the predictive programming :ph34r:

its everywhere man, EVERYWHERE! :mellow: 

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Paging in from Sector 2 South East. Prices still rising due to Ginger Line Infrastructure Spend. Talk of unearned wealth and LVT falling on deaf ears. Contacts in Sector 2 South West - district Ham of Fools - report disaster zone. Bales of tumbleweed sighted. I note that no infrastructure spend has taken place there. ALERT. Infrastructure spending many be deemed the solution. Raising early warning of People's QE and similar such statist b*llocks to Level 3.

Edited by Frizzers

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5 hours ago, Frizzers said:

Paging in from Sector 2 South East. Prices still rising due to Ginger Line Infrastructure Spend. Talk of unearned wealth and LVT falling on deaf ears. Contacts in Sector 2 South West - district Ham of Fools - report disaster zone. Bales of tumbleweed sighted. I note that no infrastructure spend has taken place there. ALERT. Infrastructure spending many be deemed the solution. Raising early warning of People's QE and similar such statist b*llocks to Level 3.

In the year 2017, humanity is sharply divided between two classes of people: The ultrarich live aboard a luxurious space station called Elysium (Londonium), and the rest live a hardscrabble existence in Earth's ruins (T' north of England). 

Have fun in your Zones, daft house prices, hummus salads and trains that go underground. The balance of the force will return once QE and ZIRP and other instruments of evil are removed. PS it is sunny outside today....but you won't see that from inside the climate domes I think you all live in. 😆😆

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1 minute ago, Phil321 said:

In the year 2017, humanity is sharply divided between two classes of people: The ultrarich live aboard a luxurious space station called Elysium (Londonium), and the rest live a hardscrabble existence in Earth's ruins (T' north of England). 

Have fun in your Zones, daft house prices, hummus salads and trains that go underground. The balance of the force will return once QE and ZIRP and other instruments of evil are removed. PS it is sunny outside today....but you won't see that from inside the climate domes I think you all live in. 😆😆

Elysium, Jason Bourne in a spacesuit.

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London house prices fall for the first time in EIGHT YEARS as home owners hit by double blow

London home owners face a painful double whammy  as property prices fall for the first time since the financial crisis ahead of a near certain interest rate hike.

The average price of a home in the capital dropped 0.6 per cent year-on-year to £471,761, according to latest figures from the Nationwide building society.

The fall recorded by the Nationwide suggests that the slump first seen in the most areas of central London has now rippled out across the capital to the suburbs.

An inflationary squeeze on spending power since the Brexit referendum combined with a fall in foreign investment are thought to have dampened demand for property in the capital this year. 

Alex Gosling said: “The London property market has enjoyed almost a decade of phenomenal growth. But year after year of double digit growth was unsustainable and inevitably going to come to an end at some point. That point looks like now.

“Brexit fears are also scaring off overseas investors who came to the rescue and supported the London market during the dark years after the financial crash.” ES

 

Oh yes, house prices are not going up forever. And Brexit fears.

Edited by rollover

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London house prices are still at risk of a bubble, according to this wealth manager

London's property market is still firmly in "bubble-risk" territory, one of the UK's largest wealth managers has warned, as it ranked the capital's housing market as one of the most vulnerable in Europe.  Investors should take caution in the capital's housing market, UBS Wealth Management said, as it published its Global Real Estate Bubble Index today. While Toronto came top of the ranking, with a score of 2.12, London came sixth, with a score of 1.77. Prices in the capital are being pushed up by mortgage rates at "all-time lows", while the help to buy scheme has kept demand high. However, the luxury end of the market faces oversupply, the research warned.   City AM

 

 

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House prices slightly lower than a year earlier and the trend seems to be down.

Prices are still to high to attract many buyers and the London BTL market is dead. Further falls are inevitable. 

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Yesterday's London Evening Standard. Editorial inside (can't think who would be behind that) said house price falls were a bad thing and this news was a result of loss of confidence following the Brexit vote.

London_Evening_Standard_30_9_2017_400.jp

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Just the latest in numerous reports on the buckets of corrupt money that pump up the housing bubble...

https://www.voanews.com/a/london-tour-nigeria-corrupt-money-london/4056107.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

'Kleptocracy Tour' Spotlights Nigerian Corrupt Money Funneled Through Britain

Anti-corruption activists hoping to shine a light on the hundreds of millions of dollars funneled through London every year are organizing tours of properties allegedly bought with dishonest money.

The "Kleptocracy Tour" is billed as a journey to the dark side of globalization. This is the first such tour which focuses on Nigeria.

"The international community, specifically the United Kingdom, the United States, other financial centers, are playing a huge role in facilitating elite corruption in Nigeria, through offshore corporate tax havens, lax banking and property laws," said tour guide Matthew Page, a former U.S. State Department Nigeria analyst, now with Transparency International.

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On 9/30/2017 at 4:00 PM, rantnrave said:

Yesterday's London Evening Standard. Editorial inside (can't think who would be behind that) said house price falls were a bad thing and this news was a result of loss of confidence following the Brexit vote.

London_Evening_Standard_30_9_2017_400.jp

Blackrock paying Osborne has done wonders for their ETF shorting surely?

As dirty as that rag is, people read it and absorb it glancingly. You'll see more trepid sellers starting to prepare to sell now. 

It's begun.

Edited by Tapori

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3 hours ago, Tempus said:

Just the latest in numerous reports on the buckets of corrupt money that pump up the housing bubble...

https://www.voanews.com/a/london-tour-nigeria-corrupt-money-london/4056107.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

'Kleptocracy Tour' Spotlights Nigerian Corrupt Money Funneled Through Britain

Anti-corruption activists hoping to shine a light on the hundreds of millions of dollars funneled through London every year are organizing tours of properties allegedly bought with dishonest money.

The "Kleptocracy Tour" is billed as a journey to the dark side of globalization. This is the first such tour which focuses on Nigeria.

"The international community, specifically the United Kingdom, the United States, other financial centers, are playing a huge role in facilitating elite corruption in Nigeria, through offshore corporate tax havens, lax banking and property laws," said tour guide Matthew Page, a former U.S. State Department Nigeria analyst, now with Transparency International.

I'd follow the Nawaz Sharif trial in Pakistan. Ex-PM disqualified recently by a emboldened judiciary after a corruption investigation based on the Panama Papers linking his children to ownership of ill-gotten Mayfair flats for which he could not show proof of income. The resulting report investigation requested info on Sharif and the UK gov responded. This response has not been revealed. The report cited numerous companies and dealings here in the UK. It's commonly known in the Pakistani diaspora the Pakistani elites have robbed the country blind and invested heavily here in property, buildings and much more. Documentary from Ilford to Islamabad is on youtube by the BBC highlighting the seeds of this corruption.

In India, Vihay Malhiya is being investigated too and I bet he has money here. 

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4 minutes ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:

I'm trying to find the name of a website I used to use, but have now lost the bookmark. The site took land-reg data and displayed changes in house prices on a map by area. You could search by various postcodes etc and it would show a heat map for %change in prices, sales volumes etc etc.  Was a pretty cool tool. But I cannot for the life of me find it.

 

Any ideas?

 

Cheers,

Matt

rightmove shows per the postcode

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On a 6-mnth time frame the falls have spread even further - good news surely as shows falls have spread outwards over past 6 months - direction of travel in our favour :) 

london 6mnth price change_jpg.jpg

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2 hours ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:

if you look at the price changes in new builds only across London the story gets even worse...

new builds london 1yr price trend.jpg

Yeah, all those green +20%'s are terrible !!!

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2 hours ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:

Here's the stats from 2015 - a few spikes along the way but aclear down trend toward zero! :) 

2yr trend sw8 sales.jpg

Cheers, definitely looks to be in trouble

 

2015-09: 100

2016-08: 30 

2017-08: 12

 

Approx !!!

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Check out the big loss on this luxury newbuild (data taken from houseprices.io, which was built by @evictee)

59d75d06a0977_ScreenShot2017-10-06at11_33_54.png.d65b28aefd3afb4bcbc1afb484c52b09.png

It doesn't look like a big loss but you have to take into account the stamp duty due in 2015 of £107,550.

We don't know who paid that and we don't know who paid the stamp duty due on the 2017 transaction, but here's a stab at calculating the loss in some of the possible scenarios of who paid what:

1) 2015 buyer paid the stamp duty in 2015 but did not have to make any contribution to their buyer's stamp duty in 2017. Loss of £100,000. 

2) 2015 buyer paid the stamp duty in 2015 and when they sold in 2017 they paid a quarter of the buyer's stamp duty. Loss of £126,877. 

3) 2015 buyer paid no stamp duty in 2015 because they got a good deal from the developer and did not have to make any contribution to their buyer's stamp duty in 2017. Gain of £8,000. 

If you want to add in the possibly of more losses if the seller is an overseas investor, consider that the pound fell roughly 15% against the dollar in between the two transaction dates. 

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Good point made in this article that the sales figures reported recently are from mortgage applications and a sales process instigated before recent sentiment had changed.

http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/are-the-foundations-of-london-property-finally-crumbling/a1055849

For much of the last decade, London house prices have been as close to bulletproof as an asset class gets, rising with the inevitability of the tides, or an apparently deceased villain in a bad horror movie.

So even a relatively tentative indicator of weakness, such as the 0.6% fall in the capital’s house prices over the 12 months to September revealed by Nationwide last week, feels portentous. The question now is whether this is a prelude to weaker price growth, or all-out correction.

That was ‘the first [annual] decline in eight years’ noted Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, even as national pricing rose by 2%.

 

‘Nationwide’s index is based on its mortgage offers for people who likely began looking to buy a home well before the [Bank of England] warned earlier this month that interest rates will probably rise soon.

‘With the real wage squeeze set to remain intense over the next six months and mortgage rates about to rise, we continue to think the housing market will weaken further over the winter.’

A year of warnings about the near evaporation of liquidity at the top end of the market following Brexit and hiked stamp duty, and a significant overhang of speculative development south of the river, have primed people to look for evidence on the downside.

Some 17,000 ‘prime’ properties are due to be completed in the capital in the next 15 months in historically non-prime locations, according to property consultancy Arcadis. The daily press this summer has been filled with stories of the lengths developers are going to in order to avoid marking down prices.    

Inducements or bribes?

At the very top end, inducements include £18,000 cars and luxury electronics, according to estate-agent-to-the-rich Garrington Properties, while lower down the market developers such as Barratt and Taylor Wimpey have dangled free travel cards and furniture to try to lure in potential buyers.

Actual evidence of price falls has nonetheless been rare. At the most volatile end of the spectrum of indicators, initial asking prices fell 3.2% in London over the year to September, led by a 5.3% fall in central London boroughs, reported online portal Rightmove

At the other end of the scale, data from the Land Registry – the only major index compiled from actual achieved sales prices – reported a 2.8% rise in London prices in the 12 months to July.  

Inflation-adjusted, pricing has already peaked and rolled over, noted UBS. ‘Real prices are 2% lower’ than the 2016 top, the bank noted in its annual bubblewatch property report.   

‘Favourable credit conditions and the help-to-buy scheme have kept demand in the lower-price segment high. But the prime market now faces oversupply as increased stamp duties on luxury and buy-to-let properties hamper demand.’

Volume data showed weaker prime pricing has begun to lure buyers, data from Knight Frank suggested, with the number of completed sales rising 6% in the first half. Over the longer term liquidity remains much reduced, 10% below the same period of 2015 and 28% below 2014.

Buyers also remained highly price sensitive said Tom Bill, the estate agent’s head of London residential, saying there remained only patchy evidence that prime prices were bottoming out. 

‘Higher-value properties outperformed lower value properties for the sixth consecutive month in August, demonstrating how the market is adapting to the changed fiscal landscape,’ said Bill.

‘Prices between £5 million and £10 million were down 3.7% in the year to August 2017 compared to a decline of 5.4% across the whole [prime central London] market, and a drop of 6.7% between £1 million and £2 million.

‘The last time there was a similar outperformance was in the second half of 2009, during the initial stages of the global financial crisis when the safe-haven appeal of the prime London residential market rose strongly.’

Buying on price weakness

Many have taken as read that middle-class Londoners would buy any price weakness outside central London – an impression boosted by the government’s commitment of a further £10 billion in Help to Buy funding last week, of which they have been a primary beneficiary.

But the fact that August mortgage approvals are 3.3% lower, led by a 2.7% fall in house purchase deals and an 8% decline in ‘other’ transactions – primarily equity release and buy to let – have suggested that Bank of England warnings on credit conditions are starting to hit home.

So long as employment remained buoyant, that stress was unlikely to turn into outright cracks, said Capital Economics’ chief property economist Ed Stansfield.  

‘With no signs of a downturn in London’s labour market, we suspect it reflects sellers finally taking a more realistic view of what their homes are worth. If so, it is unlikely to be the start of a sustained correction. That said, data on buyer enquires and newly agreed sales offer little hope of any end to the current slowdown any time soon, either in London or elsewhere.’  

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