Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

[Patient London FTB]

1 hour ago, Phil321 said:

Appreciate I am a northerner and know little of the London ways such as having trains that go underground and eating hummus....and I also appreciate you want to stick to thread. 

But....we have relatives from Australia about to land in London the weekend, they have cancelled their London hotel and are going straight to Bath, York, Harrogate, Edinburgh etc. Missing London completely. 

They visit a lot and were 'half' thinking of buying some 'bolt hole' in London (I don't think price was an issue despite my comments it should be, and pressure on locals etc).....but that thought is a distant memory and something they will never do. There daughter is no longer coming over to London for a gap year and is now not coming to the UK at all (other than this brief holiday)  

I don't know if the the money launderers and investors are still be interested in London (this thread suggests not which is good) but it seems the 'casual and ill considered wealthy foreign buyer' who sees buying in London as a obvious thing to do....have gone. 

I can only admire the residents of London for their solidarity and very British spirit of just getting on with it. We have offices in London and the teams down there are superb. (Hummus aside). 

My observation is more about how the attitude of the casual foreign investor with currently little or no stake in London may well have changed significantly. Like it did for Florida villas. 

You don't explain why they've gone cold on London Phil - so is it right to infer it's due to the terrorism? 

[Frizzers]

On 6/20/2017 at 8:37 AM, anonlymouse said:

Past Auction Results

19 June 2017

London & National

Offered: 164

Sold: 106

Success: 64.6%

Raised: £27.554 Million

 

 

I went back through all the published results back to 2011 and there's never been a worse success %. Most months it's in the 80's and 90's

 

 

On 6/20/2017 at 4:37 PM, Frizzers said:

While that is very encouraging, bear in mind that a lot of sales get made in the days that follow an auction. Highest bidders are contacted, offers made, reserves are reduced, so it may be that figure ends up higher. 

However, it is a start. 

To continue with the football analogy, the bears robust, hard-working midfielder has just put in a crunching reducer on the bulls' number 10. The crowd love it. It's a great challenge. But no gaols scored. Yet. 

It's up to 65.6% now so little movement this week so far. Looking good. 

[The Moderators]

3 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Can we get back on topic, there are other threads for for this.

Please keep this thread on topic or it will be locked.  Many offensive posts removed by mods.  We do not have time for this.  

[TheCountOfNowhere]

approx 50% drops in prices for Balham over the last 2 weeks.

Given that prices were going through the roof even 12 months ago, this is significant.

I think people maybe be struggling to sell, now I wonder what the problem could be...hmmm...let me think

 

[Senny Pijama]

2 hours ago, The Moderators said:

Many offensive posts removed by mods.  We do not have time for this.  

Isn't that kind of your job? ;-)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

33 minutes ago, Senny Pijama said:

Isn't that kind of your UNPAID job? ;-)

Do you want to volunteer ?

[Pop321]

4 hours ago, Patient London FTB said:

You don't explain why they've gone cold on London Phil - so is it right to infer it's due to the terrorism? 

Yes, their note was that "due to all the incidents in London they are nervous about staying or being there."

London not my area - so this wasn't to be dismissive of the quality and spirit of the people or the area. Just genuinely from the email we received a few days ago. 

NB - Mr Nowhere...yep, was true. I appreciate is is anecdotal and I watch the London thread as a passing interest in the trends and helpful insight London gives into what might be coming up North. TBH I was a little surprised by their attitude. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 minutes ago, Phil321 said:

Yes, their note was that "due to all the incidents in London they are nervous about staying or being there."

London not my area - so this wasn't to be dismissive of the quality and spirit of the people or the area. Just genuinely from the email we received a few days ago. 

NB - Mr Nowhere...yep, was true. I appreciate is is anecdotal and I watch the London thread as a passing interest in the trends and helpful insight London gives into what might be coming up North. TBH I was a little surprised by their attitude. 

Count, Dear Boy, Count.

If some murdering career criminal 1000 years ago can declare himself a king least I can do is be a count.

Anyway, it's an interesting anecdote and I can quite imagine many people's view will be coloured by BrExit/Terror attacks etc.

Would I personally move to London.  Not, unless it was Buckingham Palace.

 

 

[Agentimmo]

I visit Balham occasionally when in London.  Friends live there.  Recently noticed that everyone looking in EA windows laughed at prices then walked on. The prices.....the place thinks it's Fulham and trendy zone 2.

My friends expect hard fall in Balham. Worse in neighbouring Tooting where the housing stock is shabby but sells well in a bubble. They think this is the year it's popping.  Next year to see significant falls. Fingers crossed for them as they've rented for years.......

[mat109]

5 hours ago, Senny Pijama said:

Isn't that kind of your job? ;-)

 

4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Do you want to volunteer ?

Volunteer as target practice ?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

34 minutes ago, Agentimmo said:

I visit Balham occasionally when in London.  Friends live there.  Recently noticed that everyone looking in EA windows laughed at prices then walked on. The prices.....the place thinks it's Fulham and trendy zone 2.

My friends expect hard fall in Balham. Worse in neighbouring Tooting where the housing stock is shabby but sells well in a bubble. They think this is the year it's popping.  Next year to see significant falls. Fingers crossed for them as they've rented for years.......

My wife used to live round Clapham so I know it well.  it's a nice enough bit but reminds me of a small northern town center  

[Chrippie]

4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Count, Dear Boy, Count.

If some murdering career criminal 1000 years ago can declare himself a king least I can do is be a count.

Anyway, it's an interesting anecdote and I can quite imagine many people's view will be coloured by BrExit/Terror attacks etc.

Would I personally move to London.  Not, unless it was Buckingham Palace.

 

 

FWIW just to add to this another anecdote. We were supposed to be hosting some Singaporean business people (CFO, CEO of a quoted company) to some meetings in London. They cancelled the day after the Borough Market attack, saying they weren't prepared to come to London now. I think SE Asians particularly are sensitive to this stuff. It doesn't jive with London as a safe haven in their eyes I think. 

[Peter Hun]

Meanwhile, back in the real world

 

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/london-population-surges-to-all-time-high-of-88m/ar-BBD1glu

[winkie]

Is that good.....if so good for who?

[Si1]

7 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Meanwhile, back in the real world

 

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/london-population-surges-to-all-time-high-of-88m/ar-BBD1glu

About 1%

Did you bother to do the maths?

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

Is that good.....if so good for who?

No, but it goes to show that London isn't going to lose its appeal - no matter what,

[Si1]

11 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

No, but it goes to show that London isn't going to lose its appeal - no matter what,

Qué?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

49 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

No, but it goes to show that London isn't going to lose its appeal - no matter what,

It lost its appeal to me...probably will never go there again now

[Si1]

20 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

It lost its appeal to me...probably will never go there again now

There's no logic behind PH's position. He says X demonstrates Y. But doesn't actually back it up with any argument, at all.

[Patient London FTB]

3 hours ago, Si1 said:

About 1%

Did you bother to do the maths?

It's also for the year to June 2016, so it's already a year out of date. 

[anonlymouse]

Alright I think we've gathered that London is a bit of a marmite place already in this thread, don't think we need to go back over that all again.

I thought I'd share some of the listings data I've been tracking since I signed up for Rightmove daily summaries earlier this year. My search criteria has stayed consistent throughout this whole period, so this is a picture for how the supply has been changing over the last three months. In the absence of rightmove publishing an up to date chart for the total number of marketed properties in the area this has been a semi-useful substitute.

This is Zone 2 btw.

First up, this chart shows how many listings I get each day for 1+ bed flats <£450,000 in an area which stretches accross Stoke Newington (N16, Hackney) to Highbury (N5, N1).

As you can see, rates of listings accelerated from 1-2 listings per day up to 6 listings per day when the election was called. Throughout the election period properties continued to be listed at that rate. Since the results, the rate of listings has accelerated up to an average of 8 listings per day with regular peaks of 10-12 listings.

 

This is the proportion of new listings versus reductions:

This shows a pretty consistent split between new listings and reductions on existing listings. Properties are selling but a decent proportion are having to reduce asking price to achieve a sale.

Finally this is the split between the number of bedrooms for each listing.

What this is telling me is that my money is buying more bang for buck - far more 2 bed properties are being listed within my budget which in my mind indicates falls in asking prices taking properties down into my criteria.

 

Hope this is of some use!

Edited June 22, 2017 by anonlymouse
Added location info

[suntory]

17 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

Alright I think we've gathered that London is a bit of a marmite place already in this thread, don't think we need to go back over that all again.

I thought I'd share some of the listings data I've been tracking since I signed up for Rightmove daily summaries earlier this year. My search criteria has stayed consistent throughout this whole period, so this is a picture for how the supply has been changing over the last three months. In the absence of rightmove publishing an up to date chart for the total number of marketed properties in the area this has been a semi-useful substitute.

This is Zone 2 btw.

First up, this chart shows how many listings I get each day for 1+ bed flats <£450,000 in an area which stretches accross Stoke Newington (N16, Hackney) to Highbury (N5, N1).

As you can see, rates of listings accelerated from 1-2 listings per day up to 6 listings per day when the election was called. Throughout the election period properties continued to be listed at that rate. Since the results, the rate of listings has accelerated up to an average of 8 listings per day with regular peaks of 10-12 listings.

 

This is the proportion of new listings versus reductions:

This shows a pretty consistent split between new listings and reductions on existing listings. Properties are selling but a decent proportion are having to reduce asking price to achieve a sale.

Finally this is the split between the number of bedrooms for each listing.

What this is telling me is that my money is buying more bang for buck - far more 2 bed properties are being listed within my budget which in my mind indicates falls in asking prices taking properties down into my criteria.

 

Hope this is of some use!

Brilliant analysis. Thank you for creating this charts. Very useful. I particularly the last chart.

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

There's no logic behind PH's position. He says X demonstrates Y. But doesn't actually back it up with any argument, at all.

Wait... I thought we were posting random opinions without any regard to facts? When you have some solid numbers of falling visitors and investors please feel free to post them.

In the mean time, we will try and beat the tourists off with a shitty stick.

 

[anonlymouse]

7 hours ago, suntory said:

Brilliant analysis. Thank you for creating this charts. Very useful. I particularly the last chart.

The two beds category does also include some recent three bed flats too. Took me by suprise a bit so I haven't created some separate columns in my data yet.

I might also add information on types e.g. ex-la / new build / purpose built / period and whether it's flats or houses but to be honest the information I already have is enough to give me a feel for the local market.

Is Sancho in this thread? If you are reading this would you mind running your charts for N1, N5, N4 and N16?

[jiltedjen]

anonlymouse - great charts