Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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Venger   
On 5/16/2017 at 11:53 AM, goz said:

More anecdotes I am afraid. 

I have been viewing a few two bed flats around Oval and Vauxhall. 

I am due to view a flat this evening that has been reduced from 650k to 575k. I assured the estate agent that I wouldn't be offering anywhere near the new asking price and he told me that he completely understands and that it would be worth my while making low ball  offer....

On Saturday I looked around two other flats that were grotesquely over priced and that had not received single offer in the 4 weeks since their listing. Once again the estate agent wanted me to put a very low offer in so that he could get some feedback to the vendor and get the asking prices down to a sensible levels. 

I am actually more and more convinced the estate agents are at the end of their tether, and want to nice dip to kick start the market. I almost feel like the agents are on our side!  

 

22 hours ago, AvoidDebt said:

This is exactly what's happening. I've discussed this with a few estate agents. Surprisingly sympathetic. One lad said it was only a p/t job for him to supplement his f/t salary at the council as it didn't pay enough. Civil war brewing between sellers and estate agents. It's killing the business. I even suggested to one well why don't you get them to lower the prices and he said downsizers are so stubborn they'd rather not sell and upsizers are fearful that they won't get a similar discount on the next property. Standoff.  

Seeing lots of decent properties in London suburbs enter a similar vegetative state to the ones up North. Decent but stupid price, will not sell. 

 

It's a nice thought, and one I cling to as a possibility (EAs getting serious with some sellers) but think we're a bit off that point yet.  Longer to go.

The point where EAs can tell cold hard truths to sellers, and tackle their HPI-ism.

Although I know it can happen.  It has happened before.

A post from a US HPC-type blog in 2014 below....  where young people right up against it in California/San Fran vs landlords/HPI++ price extremes 'glory'.

And I read similar stories UK side from HPC (proper) going back to early 90s, re Estate Agents getting serious.

HOoCl3pL.png

 

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45 minutes ago, Venger said:

 

 

It's a nice thought, and one I cling to as a possibility (EAs getting serious with some sellers) but think we're a bit off that point yet.  Longer to go.

The point where EAs can tell cold hard truths to sellers, and tackle their HPI-ism.

Although I know it can happen.  It has happened before.

A post from a US HPC-type blog in 2014 below....  where young people right up against it in California/San Fran vs landlords/HPI++ price extremes 'glory'.

And I read similar stories UK side from HPC (proper) going back to early 90s, re Estate Agents getting serious.

HOoCl3pL.png

 

Venger, We love you :-)

 

 

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Perhaps this should go on the anecdotes section.

But it relates to the question of why people are moving from London, and why the idea that it is the centre of the universe is fundamentally misplaced. Of course house prices are a major factor, but there  is another one:

It is a shithole. 

My evidence comes from yesterday, when I commuted in on my suburban train line, on a train which is the oldest on the entire UK network, which was 20 minutes late, utterly full halfway down, and full of your usual broken commuters.

And when my train eventually arrived in London, I got up, and realised I'd been sitting on a damp seat.

A couple of sniffs of my hand ascertained I had been sitting on a seat covered in either human or dog piss.

Not the greatest start to a morning of corporate meetings, but at least I'm working in the greatest city on earth, eh?

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Perhaps this should go on the anecdotes section.

But it relates to the question of why people are moving from London, and why the idea that it is the centre of the universe is fundamentally misplaced. Of course house prices are a major factor, but there  is another one:

It is a shithole. 

My evidence comes from yesterday, when I commuted in on my suburban train line, on a train which is the oldest on the entire UK network, which was 20 minutes late, utterly full halfway down, and full of your usual broken commuters.

And when my train eventually arrived in London, I got up, and realised I'd been sitting on a damp seat.

A couple of sniffs of my hand ascertained I had been sitting on a seat covered in either human or dog piss.

Not the greatest start to a morning of corporate meetings, but at least I'm working in the greatest city on earth, eh?

 

 

 

You got a seat! You must of got on at the first stop.

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On 5/17/2017 at 8:45 PM, AvoidDebt said:

This is exactly what's happening. I've discussed this with a few estate agents. Surprisingly sympathetic. One lad said it was only a p/t job for him to supplement his f/t salary at the council as it didn't pay enough. Civil war brewing between sellers and estate agents. It's killing the business. I even suggested to one well why don't you get them to lower the prices and he said downsizers are so stubborn they'd rather not sell and upsizers are fearful that they won't get a similar discount on the next property. Standoff.  

Seeing lots of decent properties in London suburbs enter a similar vegetative state to the ones up North. Decent but stupid price, will not sell. 

That's the difference with the market now v the early 90s in London - there is not yet a burning platform that drives sellers to jump . . .What is needed is either rising unemployment or significantly higher interest rates. A slew of repos would also help. 

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17 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

You got a seat! You must of got on at the first stop.

Yep, and I make sure I ascertain the truth about any women wearing a "Baby on board" badge before I give it up too. Some of those girls are just fat.

Edited by thisisthisitmaybe

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33 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Perhaps this should go on the anecdotes section.

But it relates to the question of why people are moving from London, and why the idea that it is the centre of the universe is fundamentally misplaced. Of course house prices are a major factor, but there  is another one:

It is a shithole. 

My evidence comes from yesterday, when I commuted in on my suburban train line, on a train which is the oldest on the entire UK network, which was 20 minutes late, utterly full halfway down, and full of your usual broken commuters.

And when my train eventually arrived in London, I got up, and realised I'd been sitting on a damp seat.

A couple of sniffs of my hand ascertained I had been sitting on a seat covered in either human or dog piss.

Not the greatest start to a morning of corporate meetings, but at least I'm working in the greatest city on earth, eh?

 

 

 

Be sure to dodge anyway wayward cars trying to kill you on the way to the office too. Oh yeah, try not to breath too much either.

If stress gets too bad, go and pay over £5 for some fermented wheat to take the edge off.

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10 minutes ago, Crash&Carry said:

That's the difference with the market now v the early 90s in London - there is not yet a burning platform that drives sellers to jump . . .What is needed is either rising unemployment or significantly higher interest rates. A slew of repos would also help. 

Seeing that too. Each new instruction is a higher kite than the last. I spoke to a mate, who was considering selling up, he said his was looking for 250k (last month). Now its on the market at 300k . Pure ea greed.

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45 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Perhaps this should go on the anecdotes section.

But it relates to the question of why people are moving from London, and why the idea that it is the centre of the universe is fundamentally misplaced. Of course house prices are a major factor, but there  is another one:

It is a shithole. 

My evidence comes from yesterday, when I commuted in on my suburban train line, on a train which is the oldest on the entire UK network, which was 20 minutes late, utterly full halfway down, and full of your usual broken commuters.

And when my train eventually arrived in London, I got up, and realised I'd been sitting on a damp seat.

A couple of sniffs of my hand ascertained I had been sitting on a seat covered in either human or dog piss.

Not the greatest start to a morning of corporate meetings, but at least I'm working in the greatest city on earth, eh?

 

 

 

You go on public transport without essential kit?

https://www.amazon.co.uk/UV-GUARANTEE-Blacklight-Invisible-Flashlight/dp/B00KSFDQ1M

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21 minutes ago, Crash&Carry said:

there is not yet a burning platform

The burning platform should be BTL. It's just our luck that we are waiting for the thickest 'investors' on the planet to bail out. 

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Lavalas   

Would be interested to hear which trains going into London are older than these pieces of sh*t that we have to suffer across the North.

JS57967657.jpg

Literally a bus on rails.

 

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6 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

The burning platform should be BTL. It's just our luck that we are waiting for the thickest 'investors' on the planet to bail out. 

80% of 1 bed flats and 50% of 2 bed flats are owned by buy-to-let according to the English Housing Survey,

All it would take is a portion of BTL investors (~12%) to sell their 1 bed flats and the supply of 1 bed flats to owner occupiers will increase 50%.

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3 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Would be interested to hear which trains going into London are older than these pieces of sh*t that we have to suffer across the North.

JS57967657.jpg

Literally a bus on rails.

 

The ones I use were built in 1976. I read somewhere they were the oldest on the network. Apparently they are due to be replaced in a couple of years, but i will believe it when I see it.

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Lavalas   
18 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

The ones I use were built in 1976. I read somewhere they were the oldest on the network. Apparently they are due to be replaced in a couple of years, but i will believe it when I see it.

I see now that there's some shockers around London too, and apparently privatising the railways will take us back to the seventies!

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rollover   

Renting in London is almost half the cost of owning your home

Renting in London is almost half the cost of paying mortgage repayments on your own home, according to new research. Paying monthly rent was found to be particularly cost-effective in the capital compared to buying. Two-bedroom properties, rent was found to be £1,861 on average per month in the capital, while a mortgage repayment could set a homeowner back by £3,001 a month.

In 54 per cent of Britain’s biggest urban areas, researchers said renting is cheaper than buying. This marks a turnaround compared with similar research carried out in October last year, when buying was found to beat renting in most places (60 per cent). Cambridge and Bristol, where house prices have jumped in recent years, were also on the list of places where the monthly cost of renting a home is particularly likely to beat buying one. ES

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10 hours ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

The ones I use were built in 1976. I read somewhere they were the oldest on the network. Apparently they are due to be replaced in a couple of years, but i will believe it when I see it.

Stevenage - Hertford - Moorgate line? Ours are 1976..

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4 hours ago, rollover said:

Renting in London is almost half the cost of owning your home

Renting in London is almost half the cost of paying mortgage repayments on your own home, according to new research. Paying monthly rent was found to be particularly cost-effective in the capital compared to buying. Two-bedroom properties, rent was found to be £1,861 on average per month in the capital, while a mortgage repayment could set a homeowner back by £3,001 a month.

In 54 per cent of Britain’s biggest urban areas, researchers said renting is cheaper than buying. This marks a turnaround compared with similar research carried out in October last year, when buying was found to beat renting in most places (60 per cent). Cambridge and Bristol, where house prices have jumped in recent years, were also on the list of places where the monthly cost of renting a home is particularly likely to beat buying one. ES

cods wallop... two distinct variables

The research analysed the asking prices and rents on two bedroom homes which might typically be bought by first-time buyers. It assumed a buyer would have a 10 per cent deposit to put down and that they would be repaying their mortgage over 25 years. 

Of late media and politicians have both attempted to make renting more appealing / normal hoping to keep the BTL industry ticking away... given a choice would a person prefer to buy or rent? and the 2014 obligation for one million homes... hows that coming along. 

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3 hours ago, maverick73 said:

given a choice would a person prefer to buy or rent?

In London, that's like being given the choice as to whether you'd rather have your nuts squeezed in a vice or thrown in a blender. AKA, whatever you choose, you lose.

Saying that, renters will at least have the option of being able to jump from the sinking ship. London home owners sitting on huge mortgages, in houses they can't shift, and which are crashing, are going to learn the hard way - bubbles go pop.

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4 hours ago, monkeyman1974 said:

Stevenage - Hertford - Moorgate line? Ours are 1976..

Bullseye.

Oldest rolling stock in the country I'm told. I feel for our poor Hertford Loop trains, it's like seeing Thomas the Tank Engine being flogged to an inch of his life every morning, they should be retired to a nice care home where they can put their wheels up.

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14 hours ago, Crash&Carry said:

That's the difference with the market now v the early 90s in London - there is not yet a burning platform that drives sellers to jump . . .What is needed is either rising unemployment or significantly higher interest rates. A slew of repos would also help. 

Check out Paul Hodges blog. He thinks the catalyst is going to be Brexit and the flight of financial institutions from ye olde London towne. I think he is onto something.

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2 hours ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

In London, that's like being given the choice as to whether you'd rather have your nuts squeezed in a vice or thrown in a blender. AKA, whatever you choose, you lose.

Saying that, renters will at least have the option of being able to jump from the sinking ship. London home owners sitting on huge mortgages, in houses they can't shift, and which are crashing, are going to learn the hard way - bubbles go pop.

Job losses are inevitable going forward. The way everyone is working has evolved.

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23 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Would be interested to hear which trains going into London are older than these pieces of sh*t that we have to suffer across the North.

 

As is evident from that picture, you run your trains 99% empty. When you put another 300 people in a there and charge them twice as much as they are paying now, then you will be able to afford new trains in 20 year, maybe.

The reality is that the South east is the only region that covers the cost of running the train service. If you think you deserve better trains, either accept fares 10x the current rate or get someone else to pay for it.. as they are now in the form of taxpayers.

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spyguy   
9 hours ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Check out Paul Hodges blog. He thinks the catalyst is going to be Brexit and the flight of financial institutions from ye olde London towne. I think he is onto something.

I think brexit, sugnifucant that it is, is going to have less affect than reduction in leverage and tech gutting financial services.

Most the jobs that paid enough to live in london were financial or connected. 

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