Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

[GreenDevil]

10 minutes ago, Crash&Carry said:

That's the difference with the market now v the early 90s in London - there is not yet a burning platform that drives sellers to jump . . .What is needed is either rising unemployment or significantly higher interest rates. A slew of repos would also help. 

Seeing that too. Each new instruction is a higher kite than the last. I spoke to a mate, who was considering selling up, he said his was looking for 250k (last month). Now its on the market at 300k . Pure ea greed.

[Democorruptcy]

45 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Perhaps this should go on the anecdotes section.

But it relates to the question of why people are moving from London, and why the idea that it is the centre of the universe is fundamentally misplaced. Of course house prices are a major factor, but there  is another one:

It is a shithole. 

My evidence comes from yesterday, when I commuted in on my suburban train line, on a train which is the oldest on the entire UK network, which was 20 minutes late, utterly full halfway down, and full of your usual broken commuters.

And when my train eventually arrived in London, I got up, and realised I'd been sitting on a damp seat.

A couple of sniffs of my hand ascertained I had been sitting on a seat covered in either human or dog piss.

Not the greatest start to a morning of corporate meetings, but at least I'm working in the greatest city on earth, eh?

 

 

 

You go on public transport without essential kit?

https://www.amazon.co.uk/UV-GUARANTEE-Blacklight-Invisible-Flashlight/dp/B00KSFDQ1M

[AvoidDebt]

21 minutes ago, Crash&Carry said:

there is not yet a burning platform

The burning platform should be BTL. It's just our luck that we are waiting for the thickest 'investors' on the planet to bail out. 

[Lavalas]

Would be interested to hear which trains going into London are older than these pieces of sh*t that we have to suffer across the North.

Literally a bus on rails.

 

[anonlymouse]

6 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

The burning platform should be BTL. It's just our luck that we are waiting for the thickest 'investors' on the planet to bail out. 

80% of 1 bed flats and 50% of 2 bed flats are owned by buy-to-let according to the English Housing Survey,

All it would take is a portion of BTL investors (~12%) to sell their 1 bed flats and the supply of 1 bed flats to owner occupiers will increase 50%.

[thisisthisitmaybe]

3 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Would be interested to hear which trains going into London are older than these pieces of sh*t that we have to suffer across the North.

Literally a bus on rails.

 

The ones I use were built in 1976. I read somewhere they were the oldest on the network. Apparently they are due to be replaced in a couple of years, but i will believe it when I see it.

[Lavalas]

18 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

The ones I use were built in 1976. I read somewhere they were the oldest on the network. Apparently they are due to be replaced in a couple of years, but i will believe it when I see it.

I see now that there's some shockers around London too, and apparently privatising the railways will take us back to the seventies!

[rollover]

Renting in London is almost half the cost of owning your home

Renting in London is almost half the cost of paying mortgage repayments on your own home, according to new research. Paying monthly rent was found to be particularly cost-effective in the capital compared to buying. Two-bedroom properties, rent was found to be £1,861 on average per month in the capital, while a mortgage repayment could set a homeowner back by £3,001 a month.

In 54 per cent of Britain’s biggest urban areas, researchers said renting is cheaper than buying. This marks a turnaround compared with similar research carried out in October last year, when buying was found to beat renting in most places (60 per cent). Cambridge and Bristol, where house prices have jumped in recent years, were also on the list of places where the monthly cost of renting a home is particularly likely to beat buying one. ES

[monkeyman1974]

10 hours ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

The ones I use were built in 1976. I read somewhere they were the oldest on the network. Apparently they are due to be replaced in a couple of years, but i will believe it when I see it.

Stevenage - Hertford - Moorgate line? Ours are 1976..

[maverick73]

4 hours ago, rollover said:

Renting in London is almost half the cost of owning your home

Renting in London is almost half the cost of paying mortgage repayments on your own home, according to new research. Paying monthly rent was found to be particularly cost-effective in the capital compared to buying. Two-bedroom properties, rent was found to be £1,861 on average per month in the capital, while a mortgage repayment could set a homeowner back by £3,001 a month.

In 54 per cent of Britain’s biggest urban areas, researchers said renting is cheaper than buying. This marks a turnaround compared with similar research carried out in October last year, when buying was found to beat renting in most places (60 per cent). Cambridge and Bristol, where house prices have jumped in recent years, were also on the list of places where the monthly cost of renting a home is particularly likely to beat buying one. ES

cods wallop... two distinct variables

The research analysed the asking prices and rents on two bedroom homes which might typically be bought by first-time buyers. It assumed a buyer would have a 10 per cent deposit to put down and that they would be repaying their mortgage over 25 years. 

Of late media and politicians have both attempted to make renting more appealing / normal hoping to keep the BTL industry ticking away... given a choice would a person prefer to buy or rent? and the 2014 obligation for one million homes... hows that coming along. 

[thisisthisitmaybe]

3 hours ago, maverick73 said:

given a choice would a person prefer to buy or rent?

In London, that's like being given the choice as to whether you'd rather have your nuts squeezed in a vice or thrown in a blender. AKA, whatever you choose, you lose.

Saying that, renters will at least have the option of being able to jump from the sinking ship. London home owners sitting on huge mortgages, in houses they can't shift, and which are crashing, are going to learn the hard way - bubbles go pop.

[thisisthisitmaybe]

4 hours ago, monkeyman1974 said:

Stevenage - Hertford - Moorgate line? Ours are 1976..

Bullseye.

Oldest rolling stock in the country I'm told. I feel for our poor Hertford Loop trains, it's like seeing Thomas the Tank Engine being flogged to an inch of his life every morning, they should be retired to a nice care home where they can put their wheels up.

[thisisthisitmaybe]

14 hours ago, Crash&Carry said:

That's the difference with the market now v the early 90s in London - there is not yet a burning platform that drives sellers to jump . . .What is needed is either rising unemployment or significantly higher interest rates. A slew of repos would also help. 

Check out Paul Hodges blog. He thinks the catalyst is going to be Brexit and the flight of financial institutions from ye olde London towne. I think he is onto something.

[maverick73]

2 hours ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

In London, that's like being given the choice as to whether you'd rather have your nuts squeezed in a vice or thrown in a blender. AKA, whatever you choose, you lose.

Saying that, renters will at least have the option of being able to jump from the sinking ship. London home owners sitting on huge mortgages, in houses they can't shift, and which are crashing, are going to learn the hard way - bubbles go pop.

Job losses are inevitable going forward. The way everyone is working has evolved.

[Peter Hun]

23 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Would be interested to hear which trains going into London are older than these pieces of sh*t that we have to suffer across the North.

 

As is evident from that picture, you run your trains 99% empty. When you put another 300 people in a there and charge them twice as much as they are paying now, then you will be able to afford new trains in 20 year, maybe.

The reality is that the South east is the only region that covers the cost of running the train service. If you think you deserve better trains, either accept fares 10x the current rate or get someone else to pay for it.. as they are now in the form of taxpayers.

[spyguy]

9 hours ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Check out Paul Hodges blog. He thinks the catalyst is going to be Brexit and the flight of financial institutions from ye olde London towne. I think he is onto something.

I think brexit, sugnifucant that it is, is going to have less affect than reduction in leverage and tech gutting financial services.

Most the jobs that paid enough to live in london were financial or connected. 

[whentobuy]

http://www.chiswickw4.com/default.asp?section=property&page=stats1705.htm

 

http://www.fulhamsw6.com/default.asp?section=property&page=stats1705.htm

 

 

[Lavalas]

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

 

As is evident from that picture, you run your trains 99% empty. When you put another 300 people in a there and charge them twice as much as they are paying now, then you will be able to afford new trains in 20 year, maybe.

The reality is that the South east is the only region that covers the cost of running the train service. If you think you deserve better trains, either accept fares 10x the current rate or get someone else to pay for it.. as they are now in the form of taxpayers.

Yes, that picture is ALL the evidence.

Bizarre

[Tapori]

On 5/19/2017 at 7:55 AM, Lavalas said:

Would be interested to hear which trains going into London are older than these pieces of sh*t that we have to suffer across the North.

Literally a bus on rails.

 

Expect more 2nd hand trains from here in London being trundled up to the North to be used.

The joys of privatisation.

 

[Peter Hun]

The railways arnt privatised, they are state funded. If fares covered a significant part of the cost of operation then they could buy new trains. 

[rollover]

Quote

London's affordability crisis

After years of overwhelming house price hikes buyers will welcome news that prices are finally coming down. After years of continuous growth, prices being sought in Greater London are down 1.6 per cent year on year. It appears vendors have started to accept they must lower their sights if they want to secure a sale.

Online estate agent eMoov confirms that average house prices in London are at least 12 times the average wage in the city. The largest gap exists in Hackney where exponential house price growth since the recession means the average property now costs £575,511 — that’s 17.03 times the average local wage of £33,800.

The dichotomy between what buyers can afford and what vendors would like to be paid for their homes has led to a dramatic slowdown in the number of property transactions in London. According to the Bank of England the number of new home loans plummeted in March to its lowest level in six months.

Lucian Cook believes that the affordability crisis will continue to suppress house price growth in the capital. “We have had a very long bull run in London house prices,” he adds. “We have never outperformed the rest of the UK so much or for so long, and that has consequences.” ES

Slowly but surely London is leading the race to the bottom.

[suntory]

Corbyn will win. London property is going to go into a tailspin and millions of Corbyn supporters will egg on the crash, hoping for cheaper properties. In last 48 hours, since the launch of the Tory Manifesto, the  tide has changed. The momentum is with Corbyn. His election would be ultra strong bear food.

 

Quote me on all of this 9 Kune. Corbyn will win.

 

 

[rollover]

7 minutes ago, suntory said:

Corbyn will win. London property is going to go into a tailspin and millions of Corbyn supporters will egg on the crash, hoping for cheaper properties. In last 48 hours, since the launch of the Tory Manifesto, the  tide has changed. The momentum is with Corbyn. His election would be ultra strong bear food.

 

Quote me on all of this 9 Kune. Corbyn will win.

 

 

I am not so sure about that, Tories are still comfortably ahead of Labour.

 

 

[Kurt Barlow]

On 19/05/2017 at 4:21 PM, Lavalas said:

I see now that there's some shockers around London too, and apparently privatising the railways will take us back to the seventies!

I get the Train from Bush Hill Park and the London Overground Units are fine. When I used to get the train from Enfield Chase the trains were shockers.

[B63]

33 minutes ago, suntory said:

Corbyn will win. London property is going to go into a tailspin and millions of Corbyn supporters will egg on the crash, hoping for cheaper properties. In last 48 hours, since the launch of the Tory Manifesto, the  tide has changed. The momentum is with Corbyn. His election would be ultra strong bear food.

 

Quote me on all of this 9 Kune. Corbyn will win.

 

 

Totally agree, I think he's going to win this too.