Sancho Panza

Debenhams Boss Say High Street Was 'sea Of Red' In Run-Up To Christmas

94 posts in this topic

28 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

People were spending as long as banks were lending. Nothing to do with the agreement to reduce credit then?

The comedy continues...

The banks were only lending because the BoE printed up £250 billion last July to smooth things out post Brexit and also cut IRs. 

A sugar high only lasts so long, they you're left feeling hungry. So very hungry.

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I import.Item im selling now,the last 3 years each unit has cost me £41 to £43 to import all in factory to my storage.Just landed those 3 weeks ago and they cost me £49 each (due to sterling).I get £73 for them after all costs.My profits have fallen by 33%.I cant get more for them,people wont pay.Now for me im not bothered.Im a one man band with no staff and no debts.I also have no fixed costs.I can easily see this cycle out and tick over.However imagine most retailers selling into this?.They are going to get crushed.Already im seeing pricing at break even levels across many many products,and thats break even getting them factory to door and shipping.Im not counting any debt,rent,staff etc.

Pretty obvious a lot of retailers are trying to get cash flow in,short term desperation.Over in the US the same is happening,and thats before the $ weakens.70% roughly of the economy here and there.The Fed is tightening into this,as is the BOE (QE stopped).Thats insane,but they missed a whole business / tightening cycle last time and are about to reap the whirlwind of that.There is about to be a sea of deflation unleashed as we get the end of the business cycle at the same time as a huge balance sheet recession.People will be shocked at the depth and speed of the crash.Companies carrying massive debts because it was cheap will see just how cheap it wasnt when earnings evaporate and they cant pay,or re-finance.Once done and a lot of companies have gone to the wall a real big fat reflation cycle will begin.Interest rates will be chasing that inflation higher in 3 or 4 years.

BTL etc is going to get destroyed through the deflation and early years of the reflation cycle.Houses down 40%,interest rates up 300% and nowhere to re-finance.Younger people on this forum waiting to buy,hold on,it wont be much longer IMO.

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1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

Well whaddya know, "Project Fear" is crystallising into reality! :rolleyes:

Didn't they say it would happen on an "Out' vote, and didn't mention 9 months later?  Of course, it was to strike fear into the people.

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1 hour ago, 24 year mortgage 8itch said:

Nor the internet it would seem :D

 

Good grief - that is an amazing rise in Boohoo's share price over the past 2 years. That will teach me not to NOT have kids. I knew nothing about it. The site does not impress but clearly it is good enough to get people buying clothes from it. Year final results next week.

Could be the best chance of the UK having some kind of Amazon if they get into more stuff than just clothing. Gone from a profit warning in Jan 2015 to a 1 billion company today. Never heard of it. I feel such a d*ck. (Now, now!).

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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18 minutes ago, Sajid the Taxmeister said:

Didn't they say it would happen on an "Out' vote, and didn't mention 9 months later?  Of course, it was to strike fear into the people.

Dude, they didn't figure on it taking 10 bloody months to trigger article 50! Dave the pig farmer said he was going to activate it straightaway, then bottled it.

And as I mentioned, the BoE lowered IRs and hosed the banks down with money. 

Buckle up snowflakes, the sh!t is about to get real.

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13 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

I import.Item im selling now,the last 3 years each unit has cost me £41 to £43 to import all in factory to my storage.Just landed those 3 weeks ago and they cost me £49 each (due to sterling).I get £73 for them after all costs.My profits have fallen by 33%.I cant get more for them,people wont pay.Now for me im not bothered.Im a one man band with no staff and no debts.I also have no fixed costs.I can easily see this cycle out and tick over.However imagine most retailers selling into this?.They are going to get crushed.Already im seeing pricing at break even levels across many many products,and thats break even getting them factory to door and shipping.Im not counting any debt,rent,staff etc.

Pretty obvious a lot of retailers are trying to get cash flow in,short term desperation.Over in the US the same is happening,and thats before the $ weakens.70% roughly of the economy here and there.The Fed is tightening into this,as is the BOE (QE stopped).Thats insane,but they missed a whole business / tightening cycle last time and are about to reap the whirlwind of that.There is about to be a sea of deflation unleashed as we get the end of the business cycle at the same time as a huge balance sheet recession.People will be shocked at the depth and speed of the crash.Companies carrying massive debts because it was cheap will see just how cheap it wasnt when earnings evaporate and they cant pay,or re-finance.Once done and a lot of companies have gone to the wall a real big fat reflation cycle will begin.Interest rates will be chasing that inflation higher in 3 or 4 years.

BTL etc is going to get destroyed through the deflation and early years of the reflation cycle.Houses down 40%,interest rates up 300% and nowhere to re-finance.Younger people on this forum waiting to buy,hold on,it wont be much longer IMO.

 

Fascinating read. I am going to make some more cheese on toast and read it again.

I keep reading on US financial forums about the US & Canadian equivalents of Debenhams are in their death throes - closing stores, etc. A financial guru, who admittedly is a big bear, has been speaking for a year about the coming collapse of the US shopping malls. First the big US s tores go and then the US malls go - but the pension funds have invested big time in the malls and many towns and cities are now totally reliant upon them.

They say that the US is only X years ahead of us. I wonder how long before we start to see big out of town shopping centres in the UK close.

People I follow on financial forums in the US think that the US will not be able to raise rates again for the reasons you mention. Some think that gold will soar in price as the US tries to reflate but, heck I don't know about such things. Above my pay grade.

 

When May called the election my first thought was that, between now and then, we would see a rush of sales from retailers desperate to get people to buy during the uncertain period of an election when, apparently, people hold off from buying. Today's retail figures show that people have already held off and, this morning, we had figures out that car insurance has gone up. Next week gas/electricity is rising. Politiians want everyone to scrap their diesel car. Worrying times for most British people so I can see more people not spending in shops because their cost of living essentials are rising.

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31 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

Fascinating read. I am going to make some more cheese on toast and read it again.

I keep reading on US financial forums about the US & Canadian equivalents of Debenhams are in their death throes - closing stores, etc. A financial guru, who admittedly is a big bear, has been speaking for a year about the coming collapse of the US shopping malls. First the big US s tores go and then the US malls go - but the pension funds have invested big time in the malls and many towns and cities are now totally reliant upon them.

They say that the US is only X years ahead of us. I wonder how long before we start to see big out of town shopping centres in the UK close.

People I follow on financial forums in the US think that the US will not be able to raise rates again for the reasons you mention. Some think that gold will soar in price as the US tries to reflate but, heck I don't know about such things. Above my pay grade.

 

When May called the election my first thought was that, between now and then, we would see a rush of sales from retailers desperate to get people to buy during the uncertain period of an election when, apparently, people hold off from buying. Today's retail figures show that people have already held off and, this morning, we had figures out that car insurance has gone up. Next week gas/electricity is rising. Politiians want everyone to scrap their diesel car. Worrying times for most British people so I can see more people not spending in shops because their cost of living essentials are rising.

In my game i know for a fact that there are probably half the retailers who should be bankrupt,but kept going due to interest rates being so low.The last business cycle saw no tightening so these zombie companies kept going.All that did is drag the better companies down to smaller and smaller margins,to the point now where people cant make a profit.Thats with interest rates at rock bottom.Missing out that tightening cycle has destroyed our economy underneath.I am 100% convinced our economy is rolling over,as is the US.The talk of things picking up/inflation etc is utter rubbish.This short term spurt of inflation is just before a massive deflationary crash.Imagine the end of the business cycle (the second one since interest rates last went up) alongside a massive increase of leverage on companies balance sheets.People are starting to sell for anything for cashflow.With wage increases,energy,rates etc about to kick it the abyss is dead ahead.

It wont be a depression due to massive money printing to come,but its going to feel like one.

Edited by durhamborn

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22 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Dave the pig farmer said he was going to activate it straightaway, then bottled it.

He also said he would stay on as PM, then MP.  It appears past and present are obliged to tell lies.  I wholeheartedly agree - strap-in/on.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

In my game i know for a fact that there are probably half the retailers who should be bankrupt,but kept going due to interest rates being so low.The last business cycle saw no tightening so these zombie companies kept going.All that did is drag the better companies down to smaller and smaller margins,to the point now where people cant make a profit.Thats with interest rates at rock bottom.Missing out that tightening cycle has destroyed our economy underneath.I am 100% convinced our economy is rolling over,as is the US.The talk of things picking up/inflation etc is utter rubbish.This short term spurt of inflation is just before a massive deflationary crash.Imagine the end of the business cycle (the second one since interest rates last went up) alongside a massive increase of leverage on companies balance sheets.People are starting to sell for anything for cashflow.With wage increases,energy,rates etc about to kick it the abyss is dead ahead.

It wont be a depression due to massive money printing to come,but its going to feel like one.

 

Yes, hence why the gold bug folks say that gold will come into its own as the FED, BOE, ECB, etc, will be forced to do massive money printing - more and more QE.

The US stock markets look ripe for a big correction to me. But they appear to be propped up everytime they start to correct. I am amazed they have not let them crash yet, used that as an excuse to say IR rises are off the table and that more QE is needed.

Tesco has been interesting in the last week - on hotukdeals there have been all sorts of clearance stuff appearing for knock-down prices. Slghtly older models of things like computer hard drives, routers, sat navs, etc, etc, knocked down to a tenner or twenty quid. Looks as if they have gone through their stockrooms and basically chucked everything they can find onto the shelves. That smacks of desperation to me. Looks like, as you say, desperate for cash flow.

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So much stuff......only because the space to store it has become so prohibitively expensive, stuff requires, insurance, time and care....who cares what dress you wear, walls that surround you, hardly impressed about being tied down to fear of losing things that require ongoing responsibility to protect....fancy jewels and watches, surely it is what is underneath, who you are that matters, what new and exciting experiences can hold and collect......priorities are changing, people are changing to fit what suits.... that is what people see as no hope in ever achieving, attaining or gaining so walk in a better more free direction where less can be so much more.... .;)

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That Shpock advert invites people to sell things they "no longer need or want".

Applied literally, that would be about 99% of most peoples' possessions.

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5 minutes ago, DTMark said:

That Shpock advert invites people to sell things they "no longer need or want".

Applied literally, that would be about 99% of most peoples' possessions.

Can't take it with you.;)

 

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42 minutes ago, DTMark said:

That Shpock advert invites people to sell things they "no longer need or want".

Applied literally, that would be about 99% of most peoples' possessions.

 

It's lucky that people still have possessions to sell for cash ... give it a decade more and most plebs will be 'renting' just about everything and have zero savings, completely dependant on maintaining an absolutely unbroken income stream to live.

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Forget income, that comes and goes......the big elephant in the room is wealth, assets that provide both growth and unearned income......growing numbers of people who no longer need to work because they don't have to.....when assets become more valuable than income from real working labour it becomes a social problem......because the working people are only there to keep the wealthy wealthy, to maintain and grow wealthier.....nobody can become richer if what they earn each month is spent on living each month.....herein lies the problem.;)

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Who can afford to buy stuff in the shops? I hardly ever buy anything in shops - certainly not large department stores like Debenhams, that model of retail belongs to the previous generation. 

Plus the price.

I buy quality and pay more - I'll go to a specialist / more 'upmarket' or better quality retailer and gladly pay a little bit more than the generic crap clothing has become.  I've also started buying clothes online (when I can get the sizing correct).

Ultimately it's....

 

 

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5 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:

I import.Item im selling now,the last 3 years each unit has cost me £41 to £43 to import all in factory to my storage.Just landed those 3 weeks ago and they cost me £49 each (due to sterling).I get £73 for them after all costs.My profits have fallen by 33%

Far be it from me to question but you used to make £30 per item (£73-£43) and you now make £24 per item (£73-£49) I make that a 20% drop in profits?

I am in the opposite boat. Most of my product is manufactured in the UK, but my competitors mainly manufacture abroad. They are having to put up their prices by 10%. In my industry, margins are normally about 10% so I could follow them up and double my profit or maintain my price and increase market share.

Good news for UK producers. Bad news for importers.

 

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7 minutes ago, CunningPlan said:

Far be it from me to question but you used to make £30 per item (£73-£43) and you now make £24 per item (£73-£49) I make that a 20% drop in profits?

I am in the opposite boat. Most of my product is manufactured in the UK, but my competitors mainly manufacture abroad. They are having to put up their prices by 10%. In my industry, margins are normally about 10% so I could follow them up and double my profit or maintain my price and increase market share.

Good news for UK producers. Bad news for importers.

 

20% drop on the products  but then other costs increased,storage,diesel for my van etc.Profits are down a third from a year ago.Makes no difference to me because i stop at the tax allowance level anyway,but for anyone with staff etc it will be hitting hard.I agree its mostly importers affected and is good news for UK producers,but almost all retail products are imported.If your competitors are putting up by 10% they must be giving up margin as well as costs are up more than that.Like you say,and the point is that many will go under this time,and rightly so,as part of the business cycle and then prices/margins can increase for the survivors.A lot of these companies only keep going because of debt and low interest rates.

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1 minute ago, durhamborn said:

20% drop on the products  but then other costs increased,storage,diesel for my van etc.Profits are down a third from a year ago.Makes no difference to me because i stop at the tax allowance level anyway,but for anyone with staff etc it will be hitting hard.I agree its mostly importers affected and is good news for UK producers,but almost all retail products are imported.If your competitors are putting up by 10% they must be giving up margin as well as costs are up more than that.Like you say,and the point is that many will go under this time,and rightly so,as part of the business cycle and then prices/margins can increase for the survivors.A lot of these companies only keep going because of debt and low interest rates.

I agree there will be winners and losers and we really need a clear out of zombie customers. My main competitor (30% market share) has lost over £1m every year for the last 6 years but for some unknown reason is still kept going by their American owners. Bizarre.

Hopefully the winner will be UK Plc balance of payments

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