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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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Tapori   

Just for the record I am an idiot who's opinions are not worth much, considering I was one click away from ordering a couple of bitcoins both in 2015 and 2016 and did not do it because of lethargic incompetence. Should woulda coulda. I should be fired.

Watch it crash as soon as I put an order through! Well done all of you doing well. Where to next? What of the upcoming fork? More doubling down by investors?

It will be very interesting to see how BTC performs during the inevitable recession. I can see it holding value as markets tumble and Banks scramble to intervene. In a scenario where BTC is worth more than fiat in a recession what effects wouyld government curbs like in China have? Are they likely?

I guess Karen Brady might be right; she randomly appeared on the BBC Breakfast claiming she could see BTC at 10k dollars by the end of the year as her partner was accepting payments for flats in BTC too.

What's behind the surge - Institutions or normal people getting involved? Hedging against a recession? Or sheer randomness? Incredible. That's before we talk of the altcoins designed to facilitate quick daily payments for goods like Monero et al. Crazy times.

NB: Just reading about the hard fork; is that why Bitcoin is rising in anticpation of the "free" BitCoin Gold? What effects will that have? How will the BitCoin Gold effect markets in BitCoin and altcoins?

Edited by Tapori

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I think all the forks are far too early. Trying to do too much too soon.

alts are a waste of time.

bitcoin needs to be much much more valuable until as a larger more established community, well thought out ideas can eventually be implemented in say 5-10 years time.

all forks and alts will fail as it’s too early. people want one bitcoin. and only one bitcoin. They want a bitcoin which becomes mainstream, it’s driven by money and greed, as self interest is how humans work. 

too early for any fork to succeed. at the moment all we need is bitcoin to not feel so new anymore.

for it to reach a stage where the market cap is so big, the gains are much smaller percentages. even with billions pumping in and out. 

once that happens forks can gradually improve, in baby steps. 

It will reach £100k a coin eventually, but a lot of surges up and down (higher lows) along the way until volatility is smoothed out with a huge market cap. 

bitcoins are still cheap, maybe not in a 6 month or 12 month horizon. But certainly a 24 or 36 month horizon.

if forks are seen as quick and easy money, a chance to dump crappy alts, then great, more money pumps into bitcoin. Eventually alts will stop, until much later in the game. no-one will want your forked coin at this stage, let alone banker owned alts. 

its simple really, buy bitcoin, hold 10 years, buy solid gold toilette. 

a lot of things suffer in a recession, even gold if money gets incredibly tight for everyone. 

but we are basically in a continuous recession since last time, bitcoin is doing just fine, imagine what bitcoin would do in bubble/boom times. It’s simply not been around during that kind of time period yet. 

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1 hour ago, Tapori said:

Just for the record I am an idiot who's opinions are not worth much, considering I was one click away from ordering a couple of bitcoins both in 2015 and 2016 and did not do it because of lethargic incompetence. Should woulda coulda. I should be fired.

Watch it crash as soon as I put an order through! Well done all of you doing well. Where to next? What of the upcoming fork? More doubling down by investors?

It will be very interesting to see how BTC performs during the inevitable recession. I can see it holding value as markets tumble and Banks scramble to intervene. In a scenario where BTC is worth more than fiat in a recession what effects wouyld government curbs like in China have? Are they likely?

I guess Karen Brady might be right; she randomly appeared on the BBC Breakfast claiming she could see BTC at 10k dollars by the end of the year as her partner was accepting payments for flats in BTC too.

What's behind the surge - Institutions or normal people getting involved? Hedging against a recession? Or sheer randomness? Incredible. That's before we talk of the altcoins designed to facilitate quick daily payments for goods like Monero et al. Crazy times.

NB: Just reading about the hard fork; is that why Bitcoin is rising in anticpation of the "free" BitCoin Gold? What effects will that have? How will the BitCoin Gold effect markets in BitCoin and altcoins?

My guess is that the Bitcoin surge is a result of the current money-for-nothing bubble switching focus from alts and Ethereum ICOs to Bitcoin forks (with a pinch of genuine believers in the idea that hard forking Bitcoin has the potential to break certain development stalemates). That would mean the supply of Bitcoin tightening as people switch out of alts, ICOers dump their holdings,  and hodlers add to their stack for free BTCWhatever.

It definitely doesn't feel like we've stumbled into a sane market when Harry Redknapp is tweeting about random crypto projects, so my best bet is that this a weird manifestation of the current bubble artefact, rather than genuine new adoption.

(Further bubble evidence: I heard blockchain brought up organically in another work meeting this week and also had a colleague say that the mention of blockchain, for an entirely unsuitable use case, caused enormous excitement with a pretty big audience.)

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Tapori   
6 hours ago, Darby Ram said:

My guess is that the Bitcoin surge is a result of the current money-for-nothing bubble switching focus from alts and Ethereum ICOs to Bitcoin forks (with a pinch of genuine believers in the idea that hard forking Bitcoin has the potential to break certain development stalemates). That would mean the supply of Bitcoin tightening as people switch out of alts, ICOers dump their holdings,  and hodlers add to their stack for free BTCWhatever.

It definitely doesn't feel like we've stumbled into a sane market when Harry Redknapp is tweeting about random crypto projects, so my best bet is that this a weird manifestation of the current bubble artefact, rather than genuine new adoption.

(Further bubble evidence: I heard blockchain brought up organically in another work meeting this week and also had a colleague say that the mention of blockchain, for an entirely unsuitable use case, caused enormous excitement with a pretty big audience.)

Ta. Agreed about it now being spoken of in mainstream circles indicating bubble territory, but how much higher? Harry Redknapp! Maybe his dog posted it!

Radio 4 had a brilliant documentary on the power of the blockchain tech. a year or so back.  

Fascinating times. 

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dugsbody   
2 hours ago, Tapori said:

Insane new price highs. What on earth?

What's the difference between $1 per bitcoin or $5500 per bitcoin when there is no fundamental price calculation? It's pure speculation, hence it could go to $100k or zero.

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nice to wake up to, i think its just china waking up. in a world of limitless money, the demand for limited currency (and its value) is also limitless. And china got some printing presses and loose lending also.

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Nabby81   

I brought some bitcoins 4 years ago had it all on my phone but phone went for a swim , couldn't retire anything ...lose you lose didnt think much of it 

Fastforward 4 years and the price has gone insane starting looking to invest again and found my old wallet address from previous transactions . So all I have is an old address is there anything I can do with this or am I still out of luck ? 

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What app was you using to transact with bitcoins on your phone?

Do you still have the physical phone?

The bitcoin forums are a good source of technical information, but you will need to specify more information than what you have here.

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NuBrit   
10 minutes ago, Nabby81 said:

I brought some bitcoins 4 years ago had it all on my phone but phone went for a swim , couldn't retire anything ...lose you lose didnt think much of it 

Fastforward 4 years and the price has gone insane starting looking to invest again and found my old wallet address from previous transactions . So all I have is an old address is there anything I can do with this or am I still out of luck ? 

Does your phone have use an SD card? Did you try it?

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someone might be able to fix the phone is you still have it. or if you have a wallet.dat file saved in your computer hidden system files you can get them back.

could buy the same make of phone and try and swap out components on the logic board. 

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Nabby81   

Don't have the phone , was on holiday went in the sea forgot it was in pocket .SD card I can't recall TBH 

I was using app called Bitcoin was quite a simply looking one , figure I am down about 1k on current prices from this 

I only got the address back from finding my old transactions on bittylicious 

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TrevorJL   
48 minutes ago, Nabby81 said:

So all I have is an old address is there anything I can do with this or am I still out of luck ? 

Do you have the private key? If so, you don't even need anything else but the address, you could recreate your wallet on a new device or online. Without the private key you're pretty well stuck.

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9 hours ago, dugsbody said:

What's the difference between $1 per bitcoin or $5500 per bitcoin when there is no fundamental price calculation? It's pure speculation, hence it could go to $100k or zero.

I think Bitcoin's value is largely fuelled by the supply of liquidity from the central banks and interest rate repression.  People are looking to get a return on money holdings and speculators are piling into cryptocurrencies - it's a pure speculative bubble IMO.

That's not to say that there's no value in something like Bitcoin - the 'one' (or maybe two, Ethereum has a value proposition) crypto that succeeds could truly be 'as good as gold' and will probably seem quite cheap today compared to a decade down the line after it is established.  Meanwhile, the rest of them will likely go to zero.

The real barrier to adoption is that governments absolutely will not want an independent 'currency' over which they have little control and could well introduce legislation that would effectively cripple 3rd party cryptos whilst introducing their own 'central bank approved' cryptocurrency.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Nabby81 said:

I brought some bitcoins 4 years ago had it all on my phone but phone went for a swim , couldn't retire anything ...lose you lose didnt think much of it 

Fastforward 4 years and the price has gone insane starting looking to invest again and found my old wallet address from previous transactions . So all I have is an old address is there anything I can do with this or am I still out of luck ? 

You need your passphrases or you private keys.  Without either you're stuffed.

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Rave   

I have a wallet.dat and my address from years ago. I'm not sure I have a private key, or is that stored in the wallet.dat? I really ought to check that I can still access my coins before I count my chickens, so to speak.

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7 hours ago, Rave said:

I have a wallet.dat and my address from years ago. I'm not sure I have a private key, or is that stored in the wallet.dat? I really ought to check that I can still access my coins before I count my chickens, so to speak.

Yes stored in it. Certainly used to be simple as 1) install new wallet 2) Close wallet 3) Replace wallet.dat with COPY of old wallet.dat 4) Restart wallet

Again, making sure you use a COPY of it in case something goes wrong (leave the original alone then can try again)

Now not sure if you have to use Bitcoin core, if other lighter clients will accept it, if you may need an earlier client version to get it to work, if there's now a quicker (and free - no transaction) way to export/import private keys to a different client. I'm sure somebody will be along to clarify.

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dugsbody   
31 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

Try electrum, they allow you to rebuild a wallet from old data I believe.

Only if you know your secret phrase. Btw, I use Electrum.

EDIT: Misunderstood, ignore.

Edited by dugsbody

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