NatterJackToad

The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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Same old tired arguments against Bitcoin... heard them all many times. Many times. Especially the intrinsic value one... I thought it was just Peter Schiff left hugging that one but apparently not...

185 pages, it's a nice insight into how attitudes have changed over the years yet nobody bothers to read it.

$4k people, there it is in black and white... bubbles come bubbles go, hacks, arrests, forks, power struggles, government crackdowns... yes the biggest exchange literally disappeared overnight and the price tanked 85% $1200 to $150 and look what happened... it went from $260 to $45 before that and look what happened, and $30 to $2 before that and look what happened...

There is mania in everything, there's simply too much money out there. Bubbles everywhere. Do not let it cloud what is really happening.

Technology does not reverse.

The price will dive at some point but the technology will remain. And if you don't like the technology well, look around. It's blossoming into hundreds, possibly thousands of ideas. I was just looking at the way IOTA is coming along today, it's refreshing. It might not work but look... this is the way it is now. People are finding ways to make it work. Before there was nothing. Nothing. You went to the bank to pay money and most people can't even do that now. Where are you going to go if a bank run starts and there's no bank? I used to spend 15 minutes on the phone to someone to send money overseas, that was if there was no queue. 20 years after the internet began and I still have trouble sending money overseas because some monkey's shitty ASP script decided there's not enough characters in the IBAN.

Jesus. We're not going back to that. I'm not going back to that.

Let's face it, fiat is going to 0. See how many pizzas you can buy with Bitcoin now compared with 2011. You probably get half a pizza if you held it in $$$ although it's probably resized and reconstituted to make a smaller, more pleasingly shaped pizza "friendly to kids". It's probably not even round anymore, or made with real cheese and tomato, but just called pizza so you can swig your lager and pretend you're having a great night. That is what Bitcoin is up against. It's not exactly setting the bar high.

By the way, pretty much everybody here is invested in whatever they happen to be touting, just incase it's not blindingly obvious already. That's the way it works. That's hype. If we were all sat here deliberating between ourselves on what is a good project to buy into but nobody ever actually bought anything then that would just be weird.

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27 minutes ago, adamLancs said:

If we were all sat here deliberating between ourselves on what is a good project to buy into but nobody ever actually bought anything then that would just be weird.

If it's an informed discussion of technical merits between those with skin in the game, at least it passes the Taleb test.

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21 hours ago, dannyf said:

You need to better define intrinsic value. What is the intrinsic value of a £5 note or £50 note. It's just a piece of paper and ink. Why is one intrinsically worth ten times more than the other? What's the intrinsic value of an ounce of gold? It's a lump of metal. Pretty perhaps if made into jewellery.

Cryptocurrencies meet all the requirements of sound money with the clear advantage of no counter party risk if you hold yourself, fast worldwide transfers with no middlemen, etc etc. Some even have inflation trending to 0 by some point (e.g. Bitcoin). Surely you must understand these advantages if you follow this site and are appalled at the actions of fiat money creators since 2008?

Bitcoins primary advantage over the others is wider acceptance which is critical for money. But who knows long term if it will be usurped

But regardless of the above, there is obviously some element of mania involved currently. I have no idea on future valuation changes. But it doesn't change the technological brilliance of it. For me anyway. And what if it did one day start to replace national fiat currencies?

Well then, I am getting roped into a much deeper argument than I intended with my "characteristics of mania" post, and all because of a poor choice of words, but money is a more than interesting topic.

Regarding gold, ignoring the minor industrial uses, I have the same problem with it I have with specifically the bitcoin cryptocurrency. As "money" it depends purely on the hope that others will continue to share the same philosophical vision and confidence in it that you do. But that is weak. It is no better than a fashion trend.

Antiques in the 80s used to be "in". People saw "value" in these old plates, pots, vases etc.. But the value was only there for as long as people believed in it! Now antiques are worth next to nothing. It was just a fashion trend. Gold is not much better. Other people have to "believe in it" too. And if I understand specifically the bitcoin currency correctly, that is really all that is giving bitcoin its current price too. It is too flimsy.

The difference with paper currency in a western democracy is that it is woven into the fabric of society. It is backed by society. You can have as much confidence in it as you have in your society as a whole.

I agree with what you say about government created inflation, but I did not say total confidence, just as much confidence as in society as a whole. Society as a whole is just as flawed as monetary policy. But it works enough to keep things just about ticking over. And this backing by society means that confidence in the currency is not going to suddenly disappear unless the society as a whole starts to have big problems.

This backing, as far as I understand it, is not there with bitcoin. Yes, there is an internet society and economy, but bitcoin is not woven into its fabric. Just like antiques are not woven into the fabric of our real world society. Bitcoin can go out of fashion.

Funnily enough, when I was making my original post about signs of mania I thought all crypto was basically the same, and one example of the mania I gave was this Filecoin ICO that raised $250m. I still reckon the whole industry is probably caught up in mania, but I started reading about filecoin yesterday and intentional or otherwise they are actually trying to address this issue. The kids (20 somethings) behind it have an interesting vision for the future of the internet and the currency is just a part of it. But it is an integral part of it.(*) I can certainly now see the potential value in ... whatever this industry is called ... blockchain? I know little about etherium but I get the impression it also has more in common with this filecoin one.

Bitcoin though, from what I understand, doesnt really have anything like that going on. It is just people wasting resources (electricity) to get these ones and zeros that they then put in a vault in the hope that people will still believe in it later. Its actually destruction of real wealth. (The resources used to mine it.) Just like gold. And there is a reason gold's run up never hit $2k, $5k etc. in 2009 and has not done anything since. It went out of fashion.

 

(*) What is so funny about filecoin if I understand it correctly is that the coin seems to derive its value from internet land! They are trying to decentralise the internet and they recognise the internet equivalent of land i.e. storage space, is the fundamental natural resource on which everything else is built. Mining filecoin is to provide storage space over time. I dont think they have thought of the land analogy though as they are not sitting around thinking about HPC every day.

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miggy   

We're back to the same arguments on intrinsic value? Yikes!

Filecoin itself should be good but trading wise I don't like to invest in high caps. I picked out storj, thought I'd fluffed it (project is far from well run) but sat it out expecting a pump. Today it pumped and I took a lovely profit.

What next folks? 

Edited by miggy

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18 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

I know little about etherium but I get the impression it also has more in common with this filecoin one.

Bitcoin though, from what I understand, doesnt really have anything like that going on.

You should continue with your research, what you're getting at here is why does Bitcoin use a limited script and Ethereum a Turing-complete language, Solidity. If you come away thinking Turing-completeness and Solidity were the right design choices (I don't), you might be interested in Ethereum, RSK and Neo. If you think Bitcoin's script was a better design, obviously Bitcoin makes sense. This is a good question to ask if you're just getting interested in crypto, regardless of where it takes you.

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Sorry if I am going over conversations you lot have already had. I first heard of filecoin yesterday and etherium when it hit the news a few weeks ago. You know it is in a bubble if us plebs now talk about it.

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11 hours ago, adamLancs said:

 

Let's face it, fiat is going to 0. See how many pizzas you can buy with Bitcoin now compared with 2011. You probably get half a pizza if you held it in $$$ although it's probably resized and reconstituted to make a smaller, more pleasingly shaped pizza "friendly to kids". It's probably not even round anymore, or made with real cheese and tomato, but just called pizza so you can swig your lager and pretend you're having a great night. That is what Bitcoin is up against. It's not exactly setting the bar high.

That pizza, bought with bitcoin, would take 3 hours to buy and you pay 5% extra in transaction fees.

Cryptocurrency is unstoppable but bitcoin in its current form might not be. Maybe it's fine just to have bitcoin as digital gold just storing value, but it's hard to see it being preferred for everyday use over 10+ other coins that are usable and not held to ransom by mining cartels.

 

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it's a bubble in mania stage. I just hope when it pops it's new 'higher low' will be something tasty. 

I could go back to my original suggestion and say we will see £6,000 a BTC before this pops. 

its got a strange looking chart at the momen with the fork. looked like the bubble has burst, but perhaps that fork just happened before the 'climbing the wall stage'

plenty of people buying and flipping coins right now. 

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doomed   
18 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

it's a bubble in mania stage. I just hope when it pops it's new 'higher low' will be something tasty. 

I could go back to my original suggestion and say we will see £6,000 a BTC before this pops. 

its got a strange looking chart at the momen with the fork. looked like the bubble has burst, but perhaps that fork just happened before the 'climbing the wall stage'

plenty of people buying and flipping coins right now. 

I think you have made that many suggestions now it would be impossible to be wrong :P

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10 hours ago, miggy said:

We're back to the same arguments on intrinsic value? Yikes!

Filecoin itself should be good but trading wise I don't like to invest in high caps. I picked out storj, thought I'd fluffed it (project is far from well run) but sat it out expecting a pump. Today it pumped and I took a lovely profit.

What next folks? 

It was due a pump cause it's frickin' good. Although I have a feeling there's some big guns watching this topic, there's been too many coincidences over the last few months. Not that I'm complaining.

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37 minutes ago, Marshmellow said:

it's hard to see it being preferred for everyday use over 10+ other coins that are usable

Your figures on fees are so inaccurate it's hard to believe you're in good faith. Other coins currently have low demand for transactions because nobody's using them. They don't have a miraculous scaling solution, they're just being traded on a handful of exchanges and rarely even moved to a personal wallet let alone spent.

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5 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

 

Interesting that young people are aware of whats going on in the banking system.

One youngster with his head screwed on who can see though the ********. 

Pity there are not many of them.

Most are too busy buying up insanely priced two bed flats in Clapham.

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NuBrit   

The kid in the Youtube video's is everything that's wrong with Bitcoin right now. According to his history, he's only gotten into it in the last few months and claimed he's put nearly all his money into it. Every single statement is about how he "feels" that the price is going to go up 10x from here.

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2 minutes ago, NuBrit said:

The kid in the Youtube video's is everything that's wrong with Bitcoin right now. According to his history, he's only gotten into it in the last few months and claimed he's put nearly all his money into it. Every single statement is about how he "feels" that the price is going to go up 10x from here.

+1

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scb   
1 hour ago, NuBrit said:

The kid in the Youtube video's is everything that's wrong with Bitcoin right now. According to his history, he's only gotten into it in the last few months and claimed he's put nearly all his money into it. Every single statement is about how he "feels" that the price is going to go up 10x from here.

If his life savings are £5000 (bearing in mind he's only been out of uni 2 years) then why not? I invested more than that of my savings 3 years ago now on nothing more than a whim and some wishful thinking of getting rich quick. And to date I've done well and I'm laughing. I went from small deposit for a house to now being able to outright buy a 3 bed detached house where I live - and have change for a very nice car.

 

I'm sticking with it for now, I could live to regret it if it all goes wrong but if it carrys on as it is I'll be retired before I hit 40, or at least in a position to be should I chose to.

 

Should I diversify? Probably. Will that be the safer option? Yes. Will it make me rich? Probably not. So for now I'm happy risking it. If it all goes to shit prices can drop 90% before I am a loser out of bitcoin.

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Bitfinex trouble as the cause of the BTC rise?

Quote

Bitfinex is still unable to send US customers their money in any reasonable fashion, and that’s one of the reasons why they are abandoning the US market.

Which means… in order for a US individual to get their money off of Bitfinex, in a reasonable time frame… they must buy Bitcoin with the dollars they have on the platform, now at highly inflated prices.

Be careful out there...

 

2 hours ago, scb said:

Should I diversify? Probably. Will that be the safer option? Yes. Will it make me rich? Probably not. So for now I'm happy risking it. If it all goes to shit prices can drop 90% before I am a loser out of bitcoin.

Diversification will definitely make you rich. Look at how wealthy people look after their money. It's not rocket science, it's basically just avoiding being catastrophically dumb and minimising fees. 

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13 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

One youngster with his head screwed on who can see though the ********. 

Pity there are not many of them.

Most are too busy buying up insanely priced two bed flats in Clapham.

When it hits 2 million he might cash out half. Not if, when. Yeah boys got his head screwed on.

Sounds remarkably like property investors a few years back tbh.

Guaranteed to go up!!

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Errol   

Holy Cryptocurrency Batman! Bitcoin Value Leaps to New Record

Bitcoin, the world’s most popular cyptocurrency has broken the $4.25K ceiling Saturday, stabilizing at slightly more than $4K on Sunday, thanks to massive demand in Japan.

The digital currency hit its record value of $4,225.40 on Saturday, but then fell a bit, to stabilize at about $4,000 per bitcoin on Sunday, according to cryptocurrency news site CoinDesk.

https://sputniknews.com/business/201708141056435584-bitcoin-value-new-record/

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Funny to think of all those drug purchases in the early days. Must be a few stories like the classic Pizza tale. Imagine you bought a gram of coke when bitcoin was $5, and it cost you 20BTC. Those would be worth $80K now. Hope it was a good high, bet theres a few people kicking themselves.

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Errol   

$1 in bitcoin seven years ago is valued at over $1.4 million today

The rise of bitcoin has been truly astounding when you consider that $1 worth of bitcoins seven years ago is worth over $1.4 million today. On May 22, 2010, the price of the digital currency stood at just 0.003 cents.

“Bitcoins have real value. They can't be counterfeited, and there is a limited supply. The fact they're perfect for moving value around the internet means they compete with other currencies. And as more people switch from banks and fiat money to bitcoin the price will rise, and crucially, banks will fail,” says Max Keiser of RT’s Keiser Report.

https://www.rt.com/business/399564-bitcoin-record-high-cryptocurrency/

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So here we have an implementation of LN, perhaps this little video will help those who are worried about high fees and scaling to see down the road a little. There will be quite a few distributors just like wallets. This is what takes Bitcoin in the VISA and Mastercard league. Do not underestimate how important this is going to be.

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