The Bank Of England Clueless Thread

[billybong]

^

Quote

The Governor said that if the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee had not reduced the cost of borrowing by 0.25 per cent last August a quarter of a million UK jobs would have been lost due to lower growth

As if he's ever been able to give any worthwhile Forward Guidance never mind estimate what the consequences of any of his irresponsible interest rate (and money printing)  decisions might be on employment with anything resembling precision.

At best he's just kicking the can (in a coarse and already discredited way) which damages Britain's real economy - and then he's hoping for the best - and also hoping that he never gets asked any difficult questions.

 

 

Edited January 17, 2017 by billybong

[darkmarket]

9 hours ago, darkmarket said:

I'm also expecting:

• recommendations for leaving the EU with minimum change to the status quo;
• a defence of the post-referendum stimulus package;
• a reference to Davos and inequality, explaining how BoE actions favour all sectors of society;
• passing mention of how he's not going anywhere;
• claims that any risks come from overseas but the economy is in good shape and can withstand any shocks.

• "the people of the UK also have reason to value stable growth, jobs and incomes. And in exceptional circumstances, trade-offs between real stability and inflation can arise that monetary policy is required to balance. This is now the case given the decision of the people of the United Kingdom to leave the EU."
• "Suppose the MPC had not responded in this timely, coherent, and comprehensive way... fully offsetting the persistent effects of sterling’s depreciation on inflation would have required exerting further downward pressure on domestic costs. And that would have meant even more lost output and a total disregard for higher unemployment. Given our remit, that would have been undesirable."
• "High inflation hurts those, particularly the worst off in society, who don’t hold equities or property as well as those whose incomes are fixed in nominal terms."
• "Over the next few years, the magnitude of the effects of this adjustment on the economy’s supply potential, domestic demand, and the value of sterling will be somewhat uncertain; and this process will have a significant bearing on inflation. Whatever transpires, the MPC will manage monetary policy to achieve the inflation target in a sustainable manner consistent with the preferences and instructions of the people of the United Kingdom."
• "The flexibility and dynamism of this economy will help it adjust as its relationship with the EU becomes clearer and new opportunities with the rest of the world open up."

9 hours ago, darkmarket said:

Not expecting:

• an admission that private credit is a systemic risk but the Term Funding Scheme is designed to exacerbate exactly that risk;

• "The MPC responded to this outlook by reducing Bank Rate by 25 basis points, announcing £70 billion of asset purchases, and by launching a Term Funding Scheme to ensure banks passed through lower interest rates to end borrowers."

Carney's delivery suggested someone wrote the speech for him and he hadn't even read it through beforehand. Amartya Sen's speech showed the difference between someone who understands economics, and someone who understands economics and its role in society.

[LiveinHope]

Carney proving there's an exception to every rule. "Don't let looks deceive you"

Edited January 16, 2017 by LiveinHope

[zugzwang]

Interest on US federal debt is going to the Moon, and Trump hasn't even started spending yet!

Wonder if the Canadian dummy's seen this?

 

[interestrateripoff]

8 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Interest on US federal debt is going to the Moon, and Trump hasn't even started spending yet!

Wonder if the Canadian dummy's seen this?

 

Guaranteeing increased spending as interest payments increase?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, interestrateripoff said:

Guaranteeing increased spending as interest payments increase?

More interest....FOR THE BANKERS.

 

All paths lead to the bankers.

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

8 hours ago, billybong said:

^

As if he's ever been able to give any worthwhile Forward Guidance never mind estimate what the consequences of any of his irresponsible interest rate (and money printing)  decisions might be on employment with anything resembling precision.

At best he's just kicking the can (in a coarse and already discredited way) which damages Britain's real economy - and then he's hoping for the best - and also hoping that he never gets asked any difficult questions.

 

 

We're meant to believe his forecasts when his forecasts were wrong.

 

This horrible little sh*t should be in prison IMHO

[interestrateripoff]

Toy prices could rise by up to 15% after pound's Brexit plunge

Project fear forgot this one!

[interestrateripoff]

 

• • Mark Carney: internet-only lenders pose risk to UK financial system

Eye's on the ball once more!

[interestrateripoff]

UK factory order books strongest since 2015, but costs growing - CBI

 

LONDON British manufacturers are enjoying their strongest orders in nearly two years but their costs are rising sharply following last year's Brexit vote which pushed down the value of sterling, a survey showed on Wednesday.

 

 

 

[darkmarket]

5 minutes ago, interestrateripoff said:

• • Mark Carney: internet-only lenders pose risk to UK financial system

Eye's on the ball once more!

Not interest-only lenders then. That article is a confused mess of unrelated ideas and basic inaccuracies.

[billybong]

1 hour ago, interestrateripoff said:

 

• • Mark Carney: internet-only lenders pose risk to UK financial system

Eye's on the ball once more!

The freeloaders and thieves don't like the competition.

[interestrateripoff]

Consumers drive UK economy, defying expected Brexit vote hit

 

LONDON Britain's free-spending consumers again confounded warnings that June's Brexit vote would cause an immediate slowdown in the country's economy, driving robust growth in the final three months of 2016, data showed on Thursday.

 

So Xmas then?

[interestrateripoff]

UK retail sales unexpectedly shrink in January, dragged down by grocers - CBI

 

LONDON British retail sales fell unexpectedly in January, dragged down by the biggest decline in groceries sales since 2004, an industry survey showed on Thursday.

[interestrateripoff]

UK economy fundamentally strong, but uncertainty may lie ahead - Hammond

 

LONDON British finance minister Philip Hammond said on Thursday the economy's robust performance in the fourth quarter points to its fundamental strength, although he warned uncertainty may lie ahead as the process of Brexit progresses.

[darkmarket]

"Brussels bank capital plan criticised by Bank of England

In correspondence published by the Commons Treasury Select Committee (TSC), Sam Woods, the head of the Bank’s Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), lambasted a proposal by the Commission that would force non-EU banks with big European businesses to set up holding companies holding enough capital to absorb losses if they ran into difficulties."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/27/brussels-bank-capital-plan-criticised-bank-england/

Don't threaten the too-big-to-fail model, we're literally banking on it.

[billybong]

On 1/13/2017 at 3:38 PM, satch said:

So minor that Carnage needed to cut interest rates and price tens of billions of pounds in a fit of pique or panic ..... I expect that now he sees this as a mistake and will raise interest rates and unwind the latest round of QE .................................. What's that sooty?? ...... Not a snowflake's chance in hell

One suspects that part of the reason for the QE etc is that new immigrants aren't performing their role as borrowers as much as they're supposed to in order to keep the ponzi rolling.  

They aren't taking on the extra debt that the British people won't take on.

[Little Frank]

Policy stet.

BOE growth forecast raised from 1.4% to 2% for 2017.

Here's why:-

C3qTEW6XUAE3kkK.jpg:large

Edited February 2, 2017 by Little Frank

[zugzwang]

Cornholio: Too much slack in the economy for us to raise rates now...

Quote

Q: The Bank have revised up its growth forecasts, and its estimate of slack in the economy - which conveniently means it doesn’t have to change monetary policy today. But other experts would question both assumptions, so are you worried?

Mark Carney says that there are “range of views” about how much slack remains in the UK economy.

The balance of judgement on the MPC is that our stance is appropriate.

 

[billybong]

5 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Cornholio: Too much slack in the economy for us to raise rates now...

 

So if they ceased immigration immediately then that would help. 

Edited February 2, 2017 by billybong

[zugzwang]

4 minutes ago, billybong said:

So if they ceased immigration immediately then that would help. 

Carney: We made the right call after Brexit vote.

What can you say? Black is White, Up is Down. The man is completely unhinged.

Quote

Q: You’ve argued today that Britain isn’t in a debt-fueled consumer spending boom....so is this really an issue for the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (which handles financial stability) rather than the MPC (which sets interest rates)

Mark Carney agrees, saying the FPC and the PRA (Prudential Regulation Authority) must consider whether consumer borrowing is too high.

 

[Nabby81]

Quote

 

Q: You’ve argued today that Britain isn’t in a debt-fuelled consumer spending boom....so is this really an issue for the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (which handles financial stability) rather than the MPC (which sets interest rates)

Mark Carney agrees, saying the FPC and the PRA (Prudential Regulation Authority) must consider whether consumer borrowing is too high.

He cites the danger of a group of people who are very indebted who will face serious problems repaying their debts when borrowing costs rise, potentially damaging the wider business cycle.

 

Well its certainly a danger now you lured everyone in with low rates for years your prize pillock ...made is so now any rate rise will cause damage to those who took on too much debt.

 

[Little Frank]

11 minutes ago, Nabby81 said:

Well its certainly a danger now you lured everyone in with low rates for years your prize pillock ...made is so now any rate rise will cause damage to those who took on too much debt.

 

Unsecured consumer lending rates change surprising little. 

Default rates don't rise due to changes in policy rate, they rise due to changes in unemployment.

There is always "a group of people who are very indebted who will face serious problems repaying their debts". They are exposed during recessions when unemployment rises.

The idea it is somehow the central bank's fault is ludicrous (despite it being a favourite baiting topic on this site for reasons unknown)

[billybong]

^

Quote

 

Q: You’ve argued today that Britain isn’t in a debt-fuelled consumer spending boom....so is this really an issue for the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (which handles financial stability) rather than the MPC (which sets interest rates)

Mark Carney agrees, saying the FPC and the PRA (Prudential Regulation Authority) must consider whether consumer borrowing is too high.

 

It all sounds a bit too pass the parcel to be a sensible way to be running things especially things linked to a major economy.  

It might be a way to run a kids' game at a local garden fete - but not Britain's economy.

They are both BoE bodies and he's governor of the BoE and the new set up was supposed to avoid separation of responsibility.  When the next crisis hits it sounds like they'll be using the same excuses as the last crisis and all washing their hands of any responsibility.

Edited February 2, 2017 by billybong

[darkmarket]

MPC member breaking ranks on looking through inflation:

"There is a chance, however, that these recent upside surprises are a precursor to more evidence that inflation is accelerating faster than expected and will overshoot the 2% target by more than in the MPC’s consensus forecast.

If these trends in both the real and nominal data are solidified, it will become increasingly difficult for me to justify tolerating such a large and likely overshoot of inflation - especially when compared to such a small and uncertain softening in growth and unemployment."

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2017/speech959.pdf