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Is Inflation Kicking Off?


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HOLA441

Just had a shock at my local supermarket - sunflower oil is now £1.59 a litre. Food prices for my weekly shop seem to have kicked on up again this month after a period of relative stability. The price of diesel has risen 4p per liter to 141.7p a litre this month alone. Undoubtedly these are the first effects of the ongoing decline in sterling and there will be more to come. Anything that trades on the global market (bulk foodstuffs, oil etc.) will be hit hard. The rise is diesel is 2.9% in one month with more to come.

The inflation figure for february won't be due until the middle of next March, and will be flattered by the data "falling out" of the calculation (prices rose substantially between january and february last year and this effect will fall from the calculation). Inflation over the spring may well push the BoE in unexpected and uncomfortable directions.

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Personally wouldn't touch sunflower oil with a barge pole however nice surprise in Lidl today.

250g of excellent Grahams Dairies unsalted butter down to 88p from £1.20. Special offer of course.

You need to buy on the offers and ignore the rest I'm afraid.

Now Sierra Nevada Pale Ale has risen from £1.89 in Sains/Tesco to £2.09. I only buy a few bottles in, for when my mate comes round as it is all he drinks. Its imported and so has risen a lot in price.

Lidl had cheap diced steak or something over the weekend. Some woman at the till bragging she had grabbed all that was left. Could have slapped her. :lol: Sometimes Lidl ration customers.

Edited by Secure Tenant
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On the other hand analysts from Goldman Sachs calling an end to the metal’s 12-year bull run as data showed Gold slumped to a seven-month low last week as investors cut holdings. Gold is the world's oldest inflation hedge.

Just a month ago Goldman Sachs's analyists were advising investors to go long in gold and gold went in the opposite direction.

Once again the conrtarian indictaor is flashing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-21/goldman-forecasts-gold-rally-amid-debt-ceiling-confrontation.html

Goldman Forecasts Gold Rally Amid Debt-Ceiling Confrontation

By Glenys Sim - Jan 21, 2013 3:51 PM GMT+0100

Gold may climb over the next three months as U.S. lawmakers attempt to tackle the country’s debt ceiling and the world’s largest economy slows, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, advising investors to place bets on advances.

“We see current prices as a good entry point to re- establish fresh longs,” analysts Damien Courvalin and Alec Phillips wrote in a Jan. 18 report. The bank reiterated a three- month target of $1,825 an ounce, as well as a forecast for prices to weaken in the second half as the U.S. economy rebounds.

Edited by Take Me Back To London!
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Can there now be a wage spiral? Arguments pro and con, please.

You need to be more specific with your question. For the average worker who are competing with global / EU labour supplies - no.

Those who live off state/EU subsidies, indexed link pension, those who run the central bank - yes.

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http://

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9886000/The-Bank-of-England-cant-just-go-on-doing-down-the-pound.html

The policy was reaffirmed in the minutes published this week of the Monetary Policy Committee, with the Bank’s Governor, Sir Mervyn King, acting as its cheerleader. Having only recently said that central bank money printing, or quantitative easing, was not the silver bullet he had hoped for, it now appears he wants much more, in part because it helps keep the pound low and therefore may assist in reaching the Holy Grail of a more balanced British economy.

It's not working and it's never worked before but hey why not give it another go.

Edited by billybong
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Just a month ago Goldman Sachs's analyists were advising investors to go long in gold and gold went in the opposite direction.

Once again the conrtarian indictaor is flashing.

Interestingly the long advice seems to have been published very soon after the chart cut down through the 200 ma.

Edited by billybong
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It's not working and it's never worked before but hey why not give it another go.

Mervo's entire career is filled with things that didn't work out the way he'd hoped for...

Anyway, he's lying again. The primary function of QE is to depress gilt yields not the value of the pound.

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Can there now be a wage spiral? Arguments pro and con, please.

Recently 1700 people applied for 3 full time and four part time positions at a Costa Coffee shop- I don't think that many people are going to be demanding wage rises in the near future- except those with genuinely rare skills or talents.

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Despite the pound taking a kicking and higher inflation expectations... UK 10-year gilt yields are down slightly

http://www.bloomberg...uote/GUKG10:IND

presume this is because the market is factoring in more QE..... what wierd times we live in!

Remember this? ;)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/9724935/Autumn-Statement-2012-Blow-for-George-Osborne-as-investors-reject-100-year-gilts.html

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Despite the pound taking a kicking and higher inflation expectations... UK 10-year gilt yields are down slightly

http://www.bloomberg...uote/GUKG10:IND

presume this is because the market is factoring in more QE..... what wierd times we live in!

Why is the intrest the government has to pay lower than it has ever been when the financial position we are in has never been worse?

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