danlee74

B B A Mortgage Approvals

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http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#graph=45956

Cannot see a thread for this - apologies if posted elsewhere.

Last month revised down from 33.6k to 33.4k, this months even further down at 32.3k against a forecast of 34.2k.

What is everyone's feelings as to how the UK credit downgrade will affect mortgage levels (obviously this months figures are before any effects)?

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Poor weather in January curtailed mortgage approvals while borrowers continued to play safe on loans and overdrafts' date=' the major banks say.

[/quote']

I can't understand why people on this site complain about the financial recklessness of other people, when quite clearly your average borrower decided against taking out a 25 year mortgage in January on the basis that the weather outlook for the next few days was a little bit chilly.

Just how much more restraint do you want?

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Do these figures include remortgage/changing provider ?

Why I ask is Iknow a independent mortgage broker/financial adviser and he said he`s had a very busy few months but the majority of the business has been people changing lender for better rates/deals and very few for actual house purchase

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Do these figures include remortgage/changing provider ?

Why I ask is Iknow a independent mortgage broker/financial adviser and he said he`s had a very busy few months but the majority of the business has been people changing lender for better rates/deals and very few for actual house purchase

Think you are right.....apart from BTL. ;)

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21572869

Mortgage market hit by January's cold weather, BBA says

Some of the momentum in the housing market was lost when bad weather struck, banks say Poor weather in January curtailed mortgage approvals while borrowers continued to play safe on loans and overdrafts, the major banks have said.

There were 32,288 mortgages approved for house purchases during the month, down on December and 14% lower than January 2012.

The British Bankers' Association (BBA) also said that loan and overdraft repayments outstripped new borrowing.

Personal loan levels are almost half of their peak in 2007-08, the BBA said.

"January's severe weather impacted adversely on what was already a subdued picture of borrowing demand from households and businesses," said David Dooks, BBA statistics director.

"While general economic growth stalls, low consumer and business confidence generates a natural tendency to restrain borrowing appetite, repay borrowing where possible and to build up cash and savings as a buffer."

'Caution prevails' Previous figures had shown a pick-up in the mortgage market at the end of 2012, with increased interest from first-time buyers.

Cheaper deals and greater availability of mortgages as a result of the Bank of England's Funding for Lending scheme (FLS) meant the latest statistics were a surprise for some commentators.

"As with the Council of Mortgage Lenders' lending figures for January, the BBA figures show a more subdued market which might be blamed on the bad weather," said Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients.

"We would have expected stronger figures because of the excellent mortgage rates now available as a result of the FLS; it goes to show that we remain some way off a sustained recovery in the housing market as caution continues to prevail."

Recent figures from HM Revenue and Customs did show a slight lift in house sales at the start of the year, although these buyers would have been looking at properties before the bad weather struck.

Repayments of loans and overdrafts outstripped new borrowing by £134m, the BBA figures showed, as individuals took a safety-first approach to taking on new debts in the current financial climate.

A report by pensions and investments company Scottish Widows, also published on Monday, claimed that many people were living on a "financial precipice", with little or no savings to fall back on.

A survey, based on responses from 5,000 people, found that 31% of respondents said they were not currently placing any cash aside, although this was a slightly smaller proportion than a year ago when it stood at 32%.

Only 11% of those surveyed expected the economy to pick up this year and 17% had no money to fall back on at all, the report said.

They aren't even definately blaming in on the bad weather, they probably know that thereare a limited unmber of credit worth buyers at the moment.

Nice to see Net Lending slightly down again

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21572869

They aren't even definately blaming in on the bad weather, they probably know that thereare a limited unmber of credit worth buyers at the moment.

Nice to see Net Lending slightly down again

Indeed.

Mortgage lending grew at 0.2% annually, the lowest figure on record, and the red line in the BBA chart shows it approaching zero very slowly. FLS is designed to keep it in non-negative territory. It seems inevitable that it has a date with zero sometime soon. I've seen speculation in the press about a possible extension to FLS as a budget announcement, owing to its success. Has it really had any measureable effect on BBA stats?

Personal loan balances were little changed over the month, which is really a marked change from the constant solid negative m-o-m trend recently. CC balances up too, but overall growth rates of consumer credit are down, as might be expected if banks are deleveraging, even if some of it is being shifted onto higher yielding types of debt like credit cards.

stats250213new.jpg

Edited by cheeznbreed

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Do these figures include remortgage/changing provider ?

Why I ask is Iknow a independent mortgage broker/financial adviser and he said he`s had a very busy few months but the majority of the business has been people changing lender for better rates/deals and very few for actual house purchase

Yes.

One of the main purposes of FLS is to tempt people off their existing deals which often have unfavourable T&Cs for the banks (Nationwide is getting particularly hammered because the possibility of 0.5% BoE never crossed their mind, let alone for years on end) and on to deals that are less punishing for the banks in the medium term when FLS ends and QE is wound down/ IR go up. FLS is almost a prerequisite to unwinding QE (at least partially).

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With FLS continuing to provide wholesale support I can see lenders targetting the remortgage market more aggressively this year than at any time since 2008. Lloyds is already offering a £500 incentive for current account holders to move to a fix. Against a background of rising gilt yields, hence rising variable rates, a cashback offer could help deter customer migration.

Remortgage-market-to-end-2012-Lloyds-TSB.png

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With FLS continuing to provide wholesale support I can see lenders targetting the remortgage market more aggressively this year than at any time since 2008. Lloyds is already offering a £500 incentive for current account holders to move to a fix. Against a background of rising gilt yields, hence rising variable rates, a cashback offer could help deter customer migration.

Indeed they need to get people of those pre 2008 deals. The cashback would help ensure migration to new deals with the same bank.

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With FLS continuing to provide wholesale support I can see lenders targetting the remortgage market more aggressively this year than at any time since 2008. Lloyds is already offering a £500 incentive for current account holders to move to a fix. Against a background of rising gilt yields, hence rising variable rates, a cashback offer could help deter customer migration.

Remortgage-market-to-end-2012-Lloyds-TSB.png

I don't know where the equity is going to appear from to allow remortgaging in the same manner as in the years of strong HPI. Tighter lending requirements allied to no HPI must kill remortgaging activity? I use (the lack of) remortgaging activity as a proxy for (evaporating) equity brought about by (zero/-ve) HPI.

edit repetition.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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I don't know where the equity is going to appear from to allow remortgaging in the same manner as in the years of strong HPI. Tighter lending requirements allied to no HPI must kill remortgaging activity? I use (the lack of) remortgaging activity as a proxy for (evaporating) equity brought about by (zero/-ve) HPI.

edit repetition.

I agree we're never going back to 2008, in most of the country home equity or real property value has shrunk forever. But there must be enough out there to make it worthwhile for the lenders to compete for.

Extract from a recent Lloyds press release:

Stephen Noakes, mortgage director at Lloyds TSB, said: “With SVRs at historically low levels, many homeowners have actually found their mortgage payments have reduced at the end of their term and the incentive to remortgage has been reduced.”However Noakes warned that as fixed rates start to fall borrowers should assess their mortgages as they could benefit from a further drop in their monthly payments.

To encourage borrowers to remortgage Lloyds is reducing the rates on a number of its remortgage deals by up to 0.25%.

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what would be interesting to go along side this, is the number of applications.

Well they aren't processing them in a hurry. New story on EAToday:

Some banks are taking weeks to process mortgage applications, causing delays, or even sales to fall through.

HSBC says it is currently taking an average of 56 days. In one case, a sale fell through after the buyer of a flat in London waited three months for HSBC to give a decision. The purchaser had a 56% deposit and the seller, estate agent Charles McDowell who was selling his own home, said he had to put his property back on the market.

HSBC told the Sunday Times that it had apologised to the borrower for any inconvenience caused, but that it had been a particularly complicated case.

The Sunday Times quotes data from a mortgage broker which shows that some lenders are taking three times longer than others to process applications. Barclays Wealth, for example, is taking an average of 33 working days, compared with the fastest lender, which is taking 11days.

The data suggests that Shawbrook, Platform, Leeds and Virgin are also being slow, while Aldermore and Halifax have the fastest turnaround rates at an average of 13 working days, followed by BM Solutions (14 days), Metro (16 days) and ING Direct, RBS and Abbey for Intermediaries, all 18 days. Nationwide and Accord take an average of 20 days.

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With current returns on assets so depressed - do we think that house prices can ever actually go down in GBP ever again? They will be cheaper for the global market but inflation is about to make home owning even more unaffordable in the UK especially London.

You can see more and more investors heading into riskier investments just to get a above inflation return on their money. When push comes to shove, a housing asset will stay retain a utility in the loss of confidence event that awaits us. Even the Chinese government is buying UK housing - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323699704578323670119279066.html

Prices aren't going up. Our currency is becoming worthless. Hunker down for a few years its going to be a big one.

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I can't understand why people on this site complain about the financial recklessness of other people, when quite clearly your average borrower decided against taking out a 25 year mortgage in January on the basis that the weather outlook for the next few days was a little bit chilly.

Just how much more restraint do you want?

Unfortunately it has taken grave financial crisis for borrowers to show restraint.

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With current returns on assets so depressed - do we think that house prices can ever actually go down in GBP ever again? They will be cheaper for the global market but inflation is about to make home owning even more unaffordable in the UK especially London.

You can see more and more investors heading into riskier investments just to get a above inflation return on their money. When push comes to shove, a housing asset will stay retain a utility in the loss of confidence event that awaits us. Even the Chinese government is buying UK housing - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323699704578323670119279066.html

Prices aren't going up. Our currency is becoming worthless. Hunker down for a few years its going to be a big one.

People are obsessed with making a return on their capital. Most of the time I would agree, but not at the expense of high risk investments. I've done nicely over the past few years and am quite content to sit on my hands for a bit. Our currency is not becoming worthless against a depreciating asset like a house. If things take a turn for the worse, those of us with liquid cash will be best placed to deal with it.

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People are obsessed with making a return on their capital. Most of the time I would agree, but not at the expense of high risk investments. I've done nicely over the past few years and am quite content to sit on my hands for a bit. Our currency is not becoming worthless against a depreciating asset like a house. If things take a turn for the worse, those of us with liquid cash will be best placed to deal with it.

They aren't just obsessed with return on Capital. There is a risk adjusted return to consider as we see with those money managers putting clients assets into UK gilts. How would liquid cash help in an inflationary environment. e.g (extreme example which is unlikely) You have 150k in the bank but that money is inflated away so that your weekly shopping costs 5K and your rent is 30K/month - in the mean time your currency has plummeted against the Aussie dollar and the British expats who live there all by a home for 50K AUD that used to cost 500K GBP but is now much much less.

Obviously a Zimbabwae type example - but its just there to make the point that cash in the bank is still an asset. Its Government backed bits of paper. If you lose faith in the governments ability to pay back debt it becomes worthless.

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They aren't just obsessed with return on Capital. There is a risk adjusted return to consider as we see with those money managers putting clients assets into UK gilts. How would liquid cash help in an inflationary environment. e.g (extreme example which is unlikely) You have 150k in the bank but that money is inflated away so that your weekly shopping costs 5K and your rent is 30K/month - in the mean time your currency has plummeted against the Aussie dollar and the British expats who live there all by a home for 50K AUD that used to cost 500K GBP but is now much much less.

Obviously a Zimbabwae type example - but its just there to make the point that cash in the bank is still an asset. Its Government backed bits of paper. If you lose faith in the governments ability to pay back debt it becomes worthless.

Hence the importance of liquidity. In your example you've left it too late to change your GBP into AUD, or other currency, or assets, or commodities.

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Torygraph take on it:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/9892441/Mortgage-approvals-drop-14pc-in-icy-January.html

last time approvals were lower was January 2011, and there are only six monthly figures on record which are lower than this month's, all post-crunch.

Mortgage repayments(blue) have been rising gently for a few years, that'll be rising SVRs presumably, and are now approximately matched by gross borrowings(yellow). The FLS might have cause a gentle change of gradient for the gross borrowing figures, but can it be called a genuine change of trend yet? The net borrowing trend looks intact to me, ie slowly downwards.

gross-borrowing_2491887c.jpg

The last time remortgaging approvals were lower than last month was a full 15 years ago in January 1998.

Edit, looking at it closer, the total number of approvals, purchase + remortgaging+ 'other secured', has never been lower. Even stripping out the 'other' (MEW), purchasing plus remortgaging has never been lower since stats were collected in September 1997. I'm sure the market is recovering though.

The BBA is not the entire market of course, but a good fraction of it. The housing market is looking very weak.

http://www.bba.org.uk/media/article/january-2013-figures-for-the-main-high-street-banks

edit 2, to give you an idea, the approvals for purchase+remortgaging this month (nsa) were 35,001 vs a lon-run average since Sept 1997 of 99,060. Add in 'other secured lending' approvals and we get 43,770 this month versus a long run average of 138,550. Obviously bubblemania distorts the averages so I'm not saying these are benchmarks to be aiming for, but it gives an idea of the scale of change.

Only three other months since Sept 1997 have yielded a purchase+remortgage approval total of under 40,000- Dec 2012, Jan 2011 and Jan 2010.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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The BBA is not the entire market of course, but a good fraction of it. The housing market is looking very weak.

http://www.bba.org.uk/media/article/january-2013-figures-for-the-main-high-street-banks

Hmmm .... on the pdf p2 under 'number of approvals' - "The average house purchase approval dropped to £145,300." - remarkably different to every other property price index (Haliwide / LR / Wrongmove) ... what gives?

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Hmmm .... on the pdf p2 under 'number of approvals' - "The average house purchase approval dropped to £145,300." - remarkably different to every other property price index (Haliwide / LR / Wrongmove) ... what gives?

That's only the mortgage part, so does not reflect any deposit put down.

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That's only the mortgage part, so does not reflect any deposit put down.

and...

Comparing the BBA and CML figures usually shows that the building societies loan far less than the BBA members.

[bBA = Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Royal Bank of Scotland Group, Santander UK and Virgin Money (aka Northern Rock).]

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That's only the mortgage part, so does not reflect any deposit put down.

Ok, I kind of understand that but this would mean that the "average" deposit would be around 15k, or roughly 9% of the "average" property price of 160k (accepting there is no such thing as an average and that these figures are a sum of many individual transactions). I thought the banks and building societies were shifting towards lower LTV ratios in a 'flight to quality' of BTL and high equity remortgaging. This does not seem to be bourne out by these figures? Unless I am reading this wrong (entirely possible!).

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Ok, I kind of understand that but this would mean that the "average" deposit would be around 15k, or roughly 9% of the "average" property price of 160k (accepting there is no such thing as an average and that these figures are a sum of many individual transactions). I thought the banks and building societies were shifting towards lower LTV ratios in a 'flight to quality' of BTL and high equity remortgaging. This does not seem to be bourne out by these figures? Unless I am reading this wrong (entirely possible!).

I suspect the average purchase price for a BBA approval is above the national average £160k. Likely quite a few cash sales at lower prices which don't show in the BBA figures, leaving them with most of the higher priced stuff. Maybe.

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