When Will Property Prices Start Rising Again?

[NorthamptonBear]

In case the mumsnetter OP has another look here...

Don't shoot the messengers... houses are overpriced and have been for a long time. You chose to overpay. Do the best you can to survive. many people were harmed by you overpaying, though I doubt you will understand why or how, even less care.

Be angry with the propagandists like Kirstie, Daily Express etc.

These are the people you should be angry at.

And take an honest look at yourself and your 'friends'.

Without that honesty - I think you are likely to experience worse problems than your current one.

[The Knimbies who say No]

Some HPCers could use their grey matter a little more in relation to Mumsnet threads. That was a really busy thread on a forum that gets loads of traffic and was completely full of realistic messages to the OP. By linked it here (& potentially HPCers cross-posting) it has been completely derailed and all the good messages now lost behind a view of "oh it's just the nutters from HPC".

I have an account on Mumsnet, despite not being a Mum(or, indeed, a 'net'). I post under the same usename and I post the same views I post here, for the same reason- to contribute to debate, and maybe learn something. End of.

[DTMark]

They even want houses to go up when they're looking at trading up. These people don't deserve to own homes, over smarter renters.

Well, yes. Because that helps with the deposit on the next place. This seems to be a remarkably common view and appears to stem from the idea of a "property ladder". Because it worked for our parents.

The mere notion that changing economic conditions, notably, fixed costs going up and wages going down, does not seem to impact the psyche at all. It's all someone's fault, and only a temporary abhorration caused by a crap government. It will all come right in the end, and such people are just unfortunate to find that it is they who are in this position.

[singlemalt]

I saw this on the MSE forums:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=4374397

To cut a long story short our main problem is being unable to sell the house we own that we don't even live in! Been on the market 2 years, when I found out was going to have to move. In negative equity now by a long way. If we manage to get a sale at the current price it is being marketed we will have a shortfall of £40K. If it went to auction looking at £100K shortfall. Been just about keeping up with mortgage payments of £2250 per month with a few gaps, hence arrears of £7900.

After some persistence managed to arrange token payments of £1 per month for all the unsecured debts - this has been for 12 months now.

What should we do with the house? We will never live in it again and feel aggrieved about continuing to pay out for it when we're never going to live there again. Have rented it out for 12 of the last 24 months to keep things ticking over a bit. Cannot afford any mortgage payments now that we're not receiving any rental income as tenants moved out. Before then just about breaking even. Had a couple of viewings but no offers. Market in that area is dead. Considering voluntary repossession but not sure where that will leave us. Mortgage is in joint names - all other debts are only mine.

If I had no debts and we weren't paying the mortgage we'd have £1300 per month surplus. If we got rid of the house at least we could comfortably sort out some sort of repayment plan. We're resigned to the fact that we'll be renting for some considerable length of time as credit rating now gone from excellent to something resembling Greece's credit rating. May also have the option of a family member taking out a loan of £25K to consider a F&F on the unsecured debts and I would pay them back every month, but obviously not an option while we're still making ridiculous mortgage payments. Mortgage company are doing everything they can to get their money from us and not showing any sympathy at all.

Damn the crash in the housing market. If we'd sold straight away at asking price the equity would have paid off all the unsecured debts. Can't believe how badly things have turned in that area.

Sorry for the long post.

and in amongst all that carnage..............they had their first child!

Numpty parents - Poor kid

[winkie]

Assuming the new property she wants to buy has dropped in price even more, she should be in a happy women..

Good point........but when people are not paying down the debt they can't benefit from dig drops when trading up.......

[Bloo Loo]

Truly amazing comment. I suspect this mindset reflects that of a significant fraction of 'homeowners' though.

Of course...35 years of "safe as houses" and 15 years of not missing the boat, is enough to instill wrong thinking in anyone.

FEAR is the strong emotion in operation here.

FEAR of missing out.

FEAR that someone will not rescue you and FEAR that if you are not STRONG...YOU will MISS out on the right price.

I think Gambling addicts have the same issues....

[winkie]

[cybernoid]

Interesting thread. Replies are bearish, she wants to hear bull (quite) so it's a conspiracy! She moans about housepricecrash but if she'd have taken the ideas here seriously before considering such an irresponsible 'purchase' she wouldn't be in the fix she is in today. Even when we're right we're wrong. You're welcome.

Presumably she never wants any 'Darling Children' to be able to afford to buy a house. Oo its complicated this money stuff isn't it. Actions and consequences, blimey.

Edited January 13, 2013 by cybernoid

[dances with sheeple]

"build net wealth by having an income greater than expenditure and making shrewd investment choices. Although with negative equity and £80K of unsecured debt, you are starting some way back from the line, it has to be said! " No s*hit MEWlock. How many thought they were "canny" and "shrewd" a few years ago with their property moves, only to find out they were no more than a numpty paying the bankers bonus. From just skimming mumsnet threads it is obvious there are many unthinking drones on there. Too late to educate them folks, it`s popcorn time!

[Bruce Banner]

Of course...35 years of "safe as houses" and 15 years of not missing the boat, is enough to instill wrong thinking in anyone.

FEAR is the strong emotion in operation here.

FEAR of missing out.

FEAR that someone will not rescue you and FEAR that if you are not STRONG...YOU will MISS out on the right price.

I think Gambling addicts have the same issues....

It's interesting, isn't it, how people feel that they have failed if they don't manage to squeeze the juice out of the pips, rather than being happy to crystallise a profit and move on. Not sure if it's greed or stupidity, as one of the Rothschilds said "Leave the last ten percent to the market".

[Quicken]

"build net wealth by having an income greater than expenditure and making shrewd investment choices. Although with negative equity and £80K of unsecured debt, you are starting some way back from the line, it has to be said! " No s*hit MEWlock. How many thought they were "canny" and "shrewd" a few years ago with their property moves, only to find out they were no more than a numpty paying the bankers bonus. From just skimming mumsnet threads it is obvious there are many unthinking drones on there. Too late to educate them folks, it`s popcorn time!

Actually, I think the MN'ers on that thread are mostly clued up and on message. No need to condescend. :-)

Q

[Flowerpot]

Actually, I think the MN'ers on that thread are mostly clued up and on message. No need to condescend. :-)

+1

[Welshasylumseeker]

Assuming the new property she wants to buy has dropped in price even more, she should be in a happy women..

You'd like to think so but part of me wonders if people like this are at their happiest at the dinner party telling all about their £650k twig in vase box before jumping into the leased X5 they can't afford to service. If the step up place is now only"worth" 400k what would she be able to feel smug about?

[Paece]

Interesting thread. Replies are bearish, she wants to hear bull (quite) so it's a conspiracy! She moans about housepricecrash but if she'd have taken the ideas here seriously before considering such an irresponsible 'purchase' she wouldn't be in the fix she is in today. Even when we're right we're wrong. You're welcome.

Presumably she never wants any 'Darling Children' to be able to afford to buy a house. Oo its complicated this money stuff isn't it. Actions and consequences, blimey.

+1 great thread.

These people have had it so good for so long they never want it to end, no matter what the cost to others. And when you try to explain what is happening they insult you and use shaming language.

I can see it in my family, they are completely convinced all the money has come through their own smart decisions.

The only thing that is going to stop them is their inevitable slide into old age and death, I am certainly not going to miss them.

[zugzwang]

It's interesting, isn't it, how people feel that they have failed if they don't manage to squeeze the juice out of the pips, rather than being happy to crystallise a profit and move on. Not sure if it's greed or stupidity, as one of the Rothschilds said "Leave the last ten percent to the market".

Very interesting since it discloses a hidden cognitive bias. Kahneman and Tversky established a new field of behavioural economics with their paper on Prospect Theory which studies the way economic agents frame the decisions they make - often our subjective expectation of utility is wildly at odds with the optimal outcome.

[leftiebeard]

What a great thread.

Mumsnet is a very good barometer of many things... and to be fair, I'm pretty impressed by the challenges to Janethewitch. But watching her squirm and plead for more HP growth is some of the best stuff I've read for weeks. She is utterly delusional.

2013 is going to be a good year...

[btl_hater]

This janethewitch reckons she tried to post on hpc but was denied- I am genuinely disappointed.

[Fully Detached]

This janethewitch reckons she tried to post on hpc but was denied- I am genuinely disappointed.

I'm not surprised she was prevented from posting. The entire HPC forum must have spent the entire weekend literally shitting themselves about the pasting she would have meted out had she been allowed to.

[Monkey]

i dont under stand Janethewitch's view points

unlike the 99% of those bitter and twisted HPC lot who spend their lives crying for what they are not man enough to get for themselves, and I assume most are male.

why am i a lesser man because i have not "bought" a house? i thought the bigger man was the one who said no/went against peer pressure. it showed that they were their own man and could my their own decissions.

have already said this, I do not have a sense of entitlemenet, and I am not even certain one way or the other where property prices will go. But what I do know IN THE REAL WORLD is the fact that myself and my family and all my friends we get up and go to work and are just getting on with life. I know of nobody with their home under threat or where the sky is about to fall in or the even the slightest possibilty of the world ending.

So back to my original question, reading some of the NON HPC advice if things do remain tough(and things are tough for a lot of us out there at the moment) we would probably end up sitting it out where we are, which I might add is not the worst scenario in the world given what some people have to deal with in the world.

you know noone who has their home under threat, or where the sky is about ot fall in, but you know alot of people which its tough for..... yes tought does not = major financial difficulties. but tough = a redundancy could make it impossible to meet all major financial commitments. or a reduction in hours, or food/fuel/IR's going up. all these scenarios are happening every day (BOE IR's are not, but banks are putting up the prices of mortgage IR's)

Jane also mentions the Motley fool and MSE as sources for HPI, but does not give any examples herself of as to why she thinks or has been convinced they will rise.

Data like Comet, Jessops going bust and Honda making 800 jobs redundant (yes JLR did say there were ging to make 800 jobs in another town) but the contrian data is showing that there will be more unemployement in 2013 than 2012, and as people find that their jobs are uncertian, they are not willing to sign upto even more debt than they have at the moment. even some banks are making this decission for people if they cant see it themselves.

but as with any advice or information given over the interent, this phrase is important DYOR - Do Your Own Research.

[RufflesTheGuineaPig]

I can see it in my family, they are completely convinced all the money has come through their own smart decisions.

Well it was, they were smart enough to be born before you.

It's your own fault if you were too stupid to be born 10 years earlier.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

I still call troll

[zugzwang]

This janethewitch reckons she tried to post on hpc but was denied- I am genuinely disappointed.

[tomandlu]

This quote is revealing:

Obviously a seller will want to sell their house for more than what they paid.

Okay, it's a 'want' rather than a god-given right, but it would appear that the notion the house prices naturally rise is still very ingrained with some...

[Bruce Banner]

This janethewitch reckons she tried to post on hpc but was denied- I am genuinely disappointed.

Could this be she?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=21008

[rantnrave]

I agree with the comment that the Musmnet OP has been saved a lot of 'flaming' by not being able to post here. If she's still reading this thread, as much as she would like to believe that we are all single-guy losers in bedsites, there are 25,000 members of this site. It has also been nominated by the Times, amongst others, for being an informative place to discuss economic issues. She would have faced a barrage from those posters and, from what I've seen on the MN thread, she is not particularly well-versed in the wider macroeconomic issues facing this country, the housing market and why both are currently in the mess they are in. Some of us choose to follow these issues before making the biggest purchase of our lives. There is a more information about these subjects available then ever before and she chose not to research them. Things could have got really ugly if she had posted here.

In essence, I believe the OP at the start considered rising house prices to be good news for everyone. She made a comment over there that many people in this country would not think twice about, ie, 'isn't it bad news that house prices haven't risen yet'. Probably she was looking for some affirmation, comfort, reassurance ('hugs') that they would be on the rise again soon and everything would be fine for her and the situation she was in.

Where the MN OP has become confused, in my opinion, is thinking that a growth in house prices is a win-win situation, ie, that new wealth has been created. The idea that no new weealth has been created when house prices rise, but that the money is being transferred from the housing have-nots (mostly younger people) to the housing-haves (mostly Boomers) and bankers was one she was perhaps not so familiar with. Hopefully the sheer volume of responses she has received should help her and hopefully others reading the MN thread realise that there is a rapidly growing sector of UK society that is sick of the extra misery that rising house prices have inflicted upon them. Now the government, authorities and Bank of England are visibly intent on extending that misery so the anger level is rising. She has stirred up a hornet's nest, much more so than she imagined. I just hope at the end of it all she comes to an understanding that rising house prices is most certainly not all good news and that she was fortunate to have been born at a time when she still could have gotten on the UK's property 'ladder'.