interestrateripoff

Roubini Sticks To 2013 'perfect Storm' Prediction

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[url="http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/roubini-sticks-to-2013-perfect-storm-prediction-20120718-22939.html"]http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/roubini-sticks-to-2013-perfect-storm-prediction-20120718-22939.html[/url]

[quote]Economist Nouriel Roubini is standing by his prediction for a global "perfect storm" next year as economies the world over slow down or shudder to a complete halt, geopolitical risk grows and the eurozone's debt crisis accelerates.

Roubini, the New York University professor dubbed "Dr Doom" for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, highlighted five factors that could derail the global economy.

Those factors are a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe; tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world's biggest economy into recession; a hard landing for China's economy; further slowing in emerging markets; and a military confrontation with Iran.

[b]"Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)... then we have a global perfect storm,"[/b] Roubini said.
[/quote]

If it's too big to kick they'll bring in a bulldozer to move it along..

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[quote name='interestrateripoff' timestamp='1342596651' post='909091214']
[url="http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/roubini-sticks-to-2013-perfect-storm-prediction-20120718-22939.html"]http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/roubini-sticks-to-2013-perfect-storm-prediction-20120718-22939.html[/url]

If it's too big to kick they'll bring in a bulldozer to move it along..
[/quote]

We should listen to Roubini, he is very good. IIRC he didn't just predicted the crisis, but was [u]the[/u] leading, loudest "warner", not only within academia but also on the press, and going round media studios, tirelessly warning about the mounting debt crisis. He became increasingly concerned and loud about it, and in return he got this derogatory nickname of "Dr Doom"... :rolleyes:

I think / hope that now, in retrospect, people can see and understand why he was getting louder and louder: because people were not listening to him, and he knew what was coming. BTW, not too dissimilar to our sentiments here in the HPC Forum.

Anyway, back to his new prediction, those 5 factors are:

[list=1]
[*]a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe;

[*]tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world's biggest economy into recession;

[*]a hard landing for China's economy;

[*]further slowing in emerging markets;

[*]a military confrontation with Iran.
[/list]
Re.timing: [i]" 'Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)...then we have a global perfect storm, Roubini said in a television interview with Reuters. "[/i]


And this is important:

[quote](the Fed) may be pushed toward unconventional policy options as the stimulative effect of successive waves of quantitative easing - effectively printing money to buy government bonds - diminishes over time.

Unconventional policy could include[b] "targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent, doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing, targeting nominal GDP, price-level targeting and lots of stuff that is more esoteric," said Roubini. "Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities."[/b][/quote]

So, listing these possible "unconventional" policies:

[list]

[*]targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent,
[*]doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing,
[*]targeting nominal GDP,
[*]price-level targeting
[*]Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities.

[/list]

[b]The BoE could do some of these too.[/b] Edited by Tired of Waiting

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[quote name='Tired of Waiting' timestamp='1342602417' post='909091278']
We should listen to Roubini, he is very good. ..//..
[/quote]
Agree 100%.

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One of the handful who saw it coming and said so. Taleb and Mandelbrot, Roubini, Steve Keen.

Amazing thing is, everybody else is still in denial, even now. They still think their neo-classical equilibrium-restoring model is going to save the world!

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not a cure in site....all predicted by Austrian Theory...the human reaction of Governments.....no pain, just gain.

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But as ever is -

OKay, so what is the average man or woman to do, and has the speaker got the courage of their convictions and rebuilt their life to reflect their views. You know the thing, a greenie crying wolf about sea level rises who buys a beachfront property in australia....[url="http://www.australianclimatemadness.com/2011/06/carbon-cate-buys-beachfront-property%E2%80%A6-in-vanuatu/"]Celeb greenie likes the water[/url]

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[quote name='Tired of Waiting' timestamp='1342602417' post='909091278']
We should listen to Roubini, he is very good...
[/quote]

He's on record as supporting QE, has consistently called gold a bad investment.

[quote]
The European Central Bank’s reluctance to consider further monetary easing exacerbates the problems the euro zone is currently facing, and Germany’s criticism of the Federal Reserve second round of bond buying is “misplaced,” economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Thursday.

“In a situation where there is massive fiscal consolidation … the ECB should be providing more liquidity to the financial system and do more bond buying," Roubini said in an interview, adding the ECB did not do enough to limit the widening of bond-yield spreads.

“To me QE2 was a necessary evil because with growth so below potential and with inflation following a risk of deflation, if we had not done QE2, the risk of a double-dip recession and of deflation would become more significant.“

But the real economic effects of QE2 will be modest in Roubini’s view, as the market has already priced in its effect to a large extent.

“A lot of that critique of QE2 is somehow misplaced … If anything, you could criticize the ECB for not doing QE2,” he said.
[/quote]

[url="http://www.cnbc.com/id/40129668/"]http://www.cnbc.com/id/40129668/[/url]

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[quote name='unfunded_liability' timestamp='1342611115' post='909091397']
He's on record as supporting QE, has consistently called gold a bad investment.



[url="http://www.cnbc.com/id/40129668/"]http://www.cnbc.com/id/40129668/[/url]
[/quote]

Some QE, as a "necessary evil", to cushion the correction a bit, is understandable. The problem is when they try to use it to avoid a correction altogether, worse still when (like Mervyn), some still say that there was no boom.

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[quote name='Tired of Waiting' timestamp='1342602417' post='909091278']
[list]

[*]targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent,
[*]doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing,
[*]targeting nominal GDP,
[*]price-level targeting
[*]Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities.

[/list]

[b]The BoE could do some of these too.[/b]
[/quote]

Print money to buy 10 year treasuries
Print money to lend to people directly
Print money to give companies business to grow GDP
Print money to buy things to maintain prices
Print money to buy equities

All their potential options are really just one option, printy printy, and print they certainly will.

At this point money becomes worthless, then we will truly have hyper-inflation.

Edit: clarity Edited by Voice of Reason

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[quote name='Voice of Reason' timestamp='1342611881' post='909091411']
Print money to buy 10 year treasuries
Print money to lend to people directly
Print money to give companies business to grow GDP
Print money to buy things to maintain prices
Print money to buy equities

All their potential options are really just one option, printy printy, and print they certainly will.

At this point money becomes worthless, then we will truly have hyper-inflation.

Edit: clarity
[/quote]

and no banks...

Way hay!

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There's still the best part of 6 months to get through apocalypse 2012 and he's perfect storming for 2013.

Give the Mayans predictions a chance for goodness sake. Edited by billybong

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[quote name='Tired of Waiting' timestamp='1342602417' post='909091278']
We should listen to Roubini, he is very good. IIRC he didn't just predicted the crisis, but was [u]the[/u] leading, loudest "warner", not only within academia but also on the press, and going round media studios, tirelessly warning about the mounting debt crisis. He became increasingly concerned and loud about it, and in return he got this derogatory nickname of "Dr Doom"... :rolleyes:

I think / hope that now, in retrospect, people can see and understand why he was getting louder and louder: because people were not listening to him, and he knew what was coming. BTW, not too dissimilar to our sentiments here in the HPC Forum.

Anyway, back to his new prediction, those 5 factors are:

[list=1][*]a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe;[*]tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world's biggest economy into recession;[*]a hard landing for China's economy;[*]further slowing in emerging markets;[*]a military confrontation with Iran.[/list]
Re.timing: [i]" 'Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)...then we have a global perfect storm, Roubini said in a television interview with Reuters. "[/i]


And this is important:



So, listing these possible "unconventional" policies:

[list][*]targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent,[*]doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing,[*]targeting nominal GDP,[*]price-level targeting[*]Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities.[/list]

[b]The BoE could do some of these too.[/b]
[/quote]

It's all utter crap
- cos on both sides of the pond big business has been laying off thousands of staff whilst continually sticking prices for their goods up.

They are ALL sitting on TRILLIONS of Dollars/Pounds/Euros and deliberately not taking on new staff.

Therefore this whole situation is being 'manufactured' or con-cocted by the ELITES - whether In Universities, finance or other Big Business!

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[b]America Heading Towards a Collapse Worse Than 2008 AND Europe! Says Peter Schiff[/b]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/america-heading-towards-collapse-worse-2008-europe-says-155504860.html

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[quote name='The Masked Tulip' timestamp='1342630690' post='909091622']
[b]America Heading Towards a Collapse Worse Than 2008 AND Europe! Says Peter Schiff[/b]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/america-heading-towards-collapse-worse-2008-europe-says-155504860.html
[/quote]

Interesting, Roubini and Peter Schiff just a few days apart. Just a coincidence? Or some new data? American elections?

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[quote name='Tired of Waiting' timestamp='1342637238' post='909091703']
Interesting, Roubini and Peter Schiff just a few days apart. Just a coincidence? Or some new data? American elections?
[/quote]


Schiff has a new book out :rolleyes:

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[quote name='The Masked Tulip' timestamp='1342640423' post='909091742']
Schiff has a new book out :rolleyes:
[/quote]

...which is well worth reading.

Peter Schiff has also been banging the same drum for years now. I don't think there's any significance to the timing of that article, it doesn't say anything new.

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[quote name='The Masked Tulip' timestamp='1342640423' post='909091742']
Schiff has a new book out :rolleyes:
[/quote]

I see.

And Faber too now: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-bernanke-will-cause-the-next-crash-before-2014-2012-07-17?link=MW_story_popular

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[quote name='Tired of Waiting' timestamp='1342718364' post='909092403']
I see.

And Faber too now: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-bernanke-will-cause-the-next-crash-before-2014-2012-07-17?link=MW_story_popular
[/quote]


Hmmm....

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[quote name='The Masked Tulip' timestamp='1342718617' post='909092405']
Hmmm....
[/quote]

OTOH it could just be that we here on the HPC just reminded each other of these people, and Goggled for them? I don't know.

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