bmf

Uk Economy Will Stall Until 2013, Says Item Club

33 posts in this topic

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17706336

[quote]
It forecasts "dismal" growth of 0.4% this year, rising to 1.5% in 2013.
[/quote]

From 16th Jan 2012

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16571049
[quote]
Even if a solution was found, Britain's economy would still only grow by 1.75% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014, it said.
[/quote]


From 17th Oct 2011
[b]Wrong[/b]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15326778
[quote]
It says growth should pick up to 1.5% in 2012, although that is also well under the 2.2% it previously predicted.
[/quote]

From 18th April 2011


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13110062
[b]Wrong[/b]

[quote]
The Item Club expects the UK economy to grow by 1.8% this year.

It then forecasts the growth rate will rise to 2.3% in 2012 and 2.7% in 2013.
[/quote]


From 18th Oct 2010

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11561137
[b]Wrong[/b]

[quote]
Gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 1.4% this year and 2.2% in 2011, the Ernst & Young ITEM club predicted.
[/quote]

The consistently overestimate growth. Now they are saying 0.4%. Oh dear!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If all the world's economists were laid end to end, that would be the best possible use you could make of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
GDP growth is a sack of shit. It would be like analysing a company by looking at its P&L but ignoring its Cash Flow statement and Balance Sheet.

Is any of this 'GDP Growth' productive? Is it all just cycling money round the system?


Put it this way if I built a block of luxury in the middle of Dartmouth moors for £2m, then the day after I finish I spend another £1m demolishing it and restoring the area to how it was before according to the way we look at growth I have just grown the economy by £3m, when actually I have reduced the store of wealth in the country by £3m.

GDP by itself tells you nothing worth knowing, and a government totally obsessed by it will create 'growth' in a unproductive or even negative way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='KingBingo' timestamp='1334615549' post='909015256']
GDP by itself tells you nothing worth knowing, and a government totally obsessed by it will create 'growth' in a unproductive or even negative way.
[/quote]
One of the many reasons we are screwed. Unfortunately, general economic ignorance allows this distorted view to continue. The housing market is a prime example - literally a waste of money, yet will boost GDP. Edited by tinker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='tinker' timestamp='1334615877' post='909015260']
One of the many reasons we are screwed. Unfortunately, general economic ignorance allows this distorted view to continue. The housing market is a prime example - literally a waste of money, get will boost GDP.
[/quote]

Totally agree with this.

The wider point is Item club predictions carry weight. They are propping up the UK gilt market with false hope of growth always being "just around the corner". Better if they did what they do at the grand national. Get it over with already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='zugzwang' timestamp='1334615396' post='909015254']
If all the world's economists were laid end to end, that would be the best possible use you could make of them.
[/quote]


If all the world's economists got laid then their forecasts might be more accurate!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='The Masked Tulip' timestamp='1334616296' post='909015264']
If all the world's economists got laid then their forecasts might be more accurate!
[/quote]

They should have a retrospective global act to make all economist degrees BA not BSc.

http://www.city.ac.uk/courses/undergraduate/economics

[quote]
The Economics BSc will help you gain the professional skills and experience employers demand, putting you ahead of the competition in the graduate job market. You can apply for an optional one‐year work placement, and many students undertake summer internships in the City.

Recent placements have included: HM Treasury; [b]RBS[/b]; GlaxoSmithKline; Foreign and Commonwealth Office; PriceWaterhouseCoopers; Department for Work and Pensions; Ministry of Defence; Goldman Sachs;Financial Ombudsman Service.
[/quote]

Wonder if the ones at RBS have been sacked yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='bmf' timestamp='1334612381' post='909015220']
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17706336



From 16th Jan 2012

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16571049



From 17th Oct 2011
[b]Wrong[/b]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15326778


From 18th April 2011


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13110062
[b]Wrong[/b]




From 18th Oct 2010

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11561137
[b]Wrong[/b]



The consistently overestimate growth. Now they are saying 0.4%. Oh dear!
[/quote]

Excellent work. Positively Orwellian in scale and required reading for anyone who buys the message to the masses that recovery is just around the corner.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The filter through rate of inflation - the onl sort of growth they know is not what they expected.

Demand destruction, higher costs acting as an impediment to investment in this country obviously don't figure in their analysis.

Did they mention when all the lost during the boom were coming back? Edited by OnlyMe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='KingBingo' timestamp='1334615549' post='909015256']
GDP growth is a sack of shit. It would be like analysing a company by looking at its P&L but ignoring its Cash Flow statement and Balance Sheet.

Is any of this 'GDP Growth' productive? Is it all just cycling money round the system?


Put it this way if I built a block of luxury in the middle of Dartmouth moors for £2m, then the day after I finish I spend another £1m demolishing it and restoring the area to how it was before according to the way we look at growth I have just grown the economy by £3m, when actually I have reduced the store of wealth in the country by £3m.

GDP by itself tells you nothing worth knowing, and a government totally obsessed by it will create 'growth' in a unproductive or even negative way.
[/quote]


All the other countries use the "sack of shit" measurement too?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='"Steed"' timestamp='1334645479' post='909015320']
All the other countries use the "sack of shit" measurement too?
[/quote]

It's easy to manipulate - and therefore ideal for those in government!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
To the OP - great work!

Accountants - handy guys, when you need some figures added up. No so hot at predicting the future though. :rolleyes: It's also worth noting that most of these guys didn't see the current financial malaise until we were knee deep in it.

Would you buy a map that can only show you the road ahead when the path is straight and level? That's effectively what most economists seem to be - people who can occasionally spot small changes, but consistently miss the large, important ones.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='mrpleasant' timestamp='1334641302' post='909015313']
Excellent work. Positively Orwellian in scale and required reading for anyone who buys the message to the masses that recovery is just around the corner.
[/quote]

Took me 5 minutes of googling. I couldn't be bothered but if I had more time i'd find more data points then plot them against the actual growth rate with a "reality gap". I'd also do this for the pathetic BoE fan chart predictions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='KingBingo' timestamp='1334615549' post='909015256']
Put it this way if I built a block of luxury in the middle of Dartmouth moors for £2m, then the day after I finish I spend another £1m demolishing it and restoring the area to how it was before according to the way we look at growth I have just grown the economy by £3m, when actually I have reduced the store of wealth in the country by £3m.

GDP by itself tells you nothing worth knowing, and a government totally obsessed by it will create 'growth' in a unproductive or even negative way.
[/quote]
Voila Keynesianism.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='bmf' timestamp='1334646909' post='909015330']
Took me 5 minutes of googling. I couldn't be bothered but if I had more time i'd find more data points then plot them against the actual growth rate with a "reality gap". I'd also do this for the pathetic BoE fan chart predictions.
[/quote]



Not something else to add to my list of lost all creditability club.........trust has to be earned. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='"Steed"' timestamp='1334645479' post='909015320']
All the other countries use the "sack of shit" measurement too?
[/quote]


Luckily only those countries that use professional politicians.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='bmf' timestamp='1334612381' post='909015220']
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17706336



From 16th Jan 2012

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16571049



From 17th Oct 2011
[b]Wrong[/b]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15326778


From 18th April 2011


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13110062
[b]Wrong[/b]




From 18th Oct 2010

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11561137
[b]Wrong[/b]



The consistently overestimate growth. Now they are saying 0.4%. Oh dear!
[/quote]


Latest shite-em club:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9607091/George-Osborne-boost-as-economy-begins-to-grow.html

[quote]
The Ernst & Young Item report, to be published on Monday, predicts that in the fourth quarter of this year headline growth will slow back to just 0.1pc, meaning the economy will shrink by 0.2pc for 2012 as a whole.
But, as the UK sees inflation ebb and lending improve, the momentum seen in the second half of this year will continue, with an annual growth rate of 1.2pc in 2013, then 2.4pc in 2014.
[/quote]

The same prediction pattern they all use. Short term it's bad but one year later it'll be fine. Trying to kick-start confidence and banking on the fact that people are too stupid to remember they do this every year.

And of course:

[quote]
The forecast signals a turnaround in the property market, which has been in the doldrums for years. House prices tracked by lenders Halifax and Nationwide fell by 0.5pc and 0.4pc respectively in the three months to September, against the previous three months.
Over the past five years, they have fallen 19pc in total, Item calculates. However, it sees house prices regaining their 2007 peak over the next four years, with price inflation of up to 3pc next year, rising to around 5pc annual growth.
[/quote]

But look at the comments on the Telegraph now. They really have lost the plebs' trust! Edited by bmf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They're another member of the "club" getting on the turnaround bandwagon and seeing green shoots under the gargantuan mountain of toxic debt bandwagon. Edited by billybong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='KingBingo' timestamp='1334615549' post='909015256']
GDP growth is a sack of shit. It would be like analysing a company by looking at its P&L but ignoring its Cash Flow statement and Balance Sheet.

Is any of this 'GDP Growth' productive? Is it all just cycling money round the system?


Put it this way if I built a block of luxury in the middle of Dartmouth moors for £2m, then the day after I finish I spend another £1m demolishing it and restoring the area to how it was before according to the way we look at growth I have just grown the economy by £3m, when actually I have reduced the store of wealth in the country by £3m.

GDP by itself tells you nothing worth knowing, and a government totally obsessed by it will create 'growth' in a unproductive or even negative way.
[/quote]


[i]when actually I have reduced the store of wealth in the country by £3m. [/i]

You conveniently ignore the fact that the £3m has gone somewhere. The store of wealth is only reduced if it goes offshore otherwise it goes to the companies and individuals who perform the demolition and construction with some of it being returned in taxes too. It can then be recycled in the wider economy and so on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='KingBingo' timestamp='1334615549' post='909015256']
Put it this way if I built a block of luxury in the middle of Dartmouth moors for £2m, then the day after I finish I spend another £1m demolishing it and restoring the area to how it was before according to the way we look at growth I have just grown the economy by £3m, when actually I have reduced the store of wealth in the country by £3m.

GDP by itself tells you nothing worth knowing, and a government totally obsessed by it will create 'growth' in a unproductive or even negative way.
[/quote]
Depends on who is spending the $3m. If it's Bill Gates, then a lot of plumbers, builders, gardners et al. will be paying down their own debts or creating their own capital.

The "broken window fallacy" is a fallacy. Edited by Police

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Police' timestamp='1350204420' post='909160847']
Depends on who is spending the $3m. If it's Bill Gates, then a lot of plumbers, builders, gardners et al. will be paying down their own debts or creating their own capital.

The "broken window fallacy" is a fallacy.
[/quote]

I disagree. In the vast majority of cases the cash is not coming from someone who has an infinite pool of cash, and instead there is an opportunity cost.

If you think I'm wrong just kick through a few of your own windows - it's free :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The lack of planning for extensions could save us. All they have to do is upsize lots of houses and inflate the imputed rent figure which is already 8% of GDP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Seems to me like the green shoots Daniel Defoe wrote about, growing in the streets of London in his book "A journal of the plague year".

For anyone who hasn't read it, do so. Defoe illustrates the political spin around covering up the numbers of victims early on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now