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Could U.k. House Prices Fall Again By Another 20%?

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I couldn't find this link in a site search and I couldn't find a suitable thread title but still .. hpc pr0N

Could U.K. House Prices Fall Again By Another 20%?
Housing-Market / UK Housing Apr 13, 2012 - 09:15 AM
By: Andrew_Butter
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34103.html

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[quote name='KingBingo' timestamp='1334409445' post='909013620']
Again?

They are up on 2007/08 round my way.
[/quote]

That would be asking prices, yes?

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1334411254' post='909013631']
That would be asking prices, yes?
[/quote]

If KB lives anywhere near me, (E. Berks/ Hants) it's also sold prices. :(

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[quote name='KingBingo' timestamp='1334409445' post='909013620']
Again?

They are up on 2007/08 round my way.
[/quote]


...there will always be the 'special areas' the 'special houses', areas where people can afford to sit tight and still ask a large sum of money that would be worth moving for......always will be the money flushed buyers where money is no object who fall 'hook line and sinker'..... but becoming fewer and farther between. ;)

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[quote name='FedupTeddiBear' timestamp='1334411504' post='909013633']
If KB lives anywhere near me, (E. Berks/ Hants) it's also sold prices. :(
[/quote]

How odd. I'm in Hants and prices are well down from the peak.

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[quote name='Errol' timestamp='1334412752' post='909013640']
More like 30-40%.
[/quote]


Property will fall further, property falls with availability of funds, rising interest rates, high commodity costs and basic cost of living, low pay rises, higher unemployment and the ability of people to keep up with their rent payments.....all of that means rising house prices does not have much going for it, they will fall back down what the people can pay.....can't pay won't pay...simples. ;)

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1334412541' post='909013638']
How odd. I'm in Hants and prices are well down from the peak.
[/quote]


Whenever people make these kind of statements either way they should provide data.

http://imgur.com/4KZgM

That's for all of Hampshire 1995 to Feb 2012. Slight dip in 2009 but then back up again to insane levels.

Tried uploading these files as jpg / gif / png all failed. Is there any image hosting site HPC forum trusts that we can use to dump graphs to?

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[quote name='bmf' timestamp='1334413684' post='909013647']
Whenever people make these kind of statements either way they should provide data.

http://imgur.com/4KZgM

That's for all of Hampshire 1995 to Feb 2012. Slight dip in 2009 but then back up again to insane levels.

Tried uploading these files as jpg / gif / png all failed. Is there any image hosting site HPC forum trusts that we can use to dump graphs to?
[/quote]

I prefer to judge local prices on what they're actually doing, rather than looking at a graph!

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1334413988' post='909013649']
I prefer to judge local prices on what they're actually doing, rather than looking at a graph!
[/quote]

But this is sales from the land registry. Admittedly some repos and other anomalies might not be captured but it's close, no?

Local prices don't confirm sales prices so something like rightmove is not as accurate.

Don't you like data Bruce?

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[quote name='bmf' timestamp='1334414269' post='909013652']

Don't you like data Bruce?
[/quote]

Not when the data is manipulated in an attempt to convince me that what I'm seeing with my own eyes is not true!

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1334414659' post='909013657']
Not when the data is manipulated in an attempt to convince me that what I'm seeing with my own eyes is not true!
[/quote]

Do you really not believe the land registry? I'm not trusting of much of what we see in the media but why is the land registry not giving a clear picture? For example in West Hull it shows a 30% drop since 2008.

Genuine question!

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[quote name='bmf' timestamp='1334414810' post='909013658']
Do you really not believe the land registry? I'm not trusting of much of what we see in the media but why is the land registry not giving a clear picture? For example in West Hull it shows a 30% drop since 2008.

Genuine question!
[/quote]

I believe the Land Registry for specific sales but not their general figures which do not, as you said, include repossessions and other transactions that they class as unrepresentative. I wonder what the real drop is for West Hull if you include the transactions they exclude.

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1334415135' post='909013662']
I believe the Land Registry for specific sales but not their general figures which do not, as you said, include repossessions and other transactions that they class as unrepresentative. I wonder what the real drop is for West Hull if you include the transactions they exclude.
[/quote]

Ok I can see that but repos would be more likely in a falling market. So if an area has fallen by 30% you can no doubt extrapolate further "hidden" falls. Such an extrapolation would have to be smaller in a market that has risen slightly.

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[quote name='bmf' timestamp='1334415271' post='909013664']
Ok I can see that but repos would be more likely in a falling market. So if an area has fallen by 30% you can no doubt extrapolate further "hidden" falls. Such an extrapolation would have to be smaller in a market that has risen slightly.
[/quote]

If the Land Registry figures included all sales, as they should, there would be no need for extrapolation.

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1334415485' post='909013666']
If the Land Registry figures included all sales, as they should, there would be no need for extrapolation.
[/quote]


..is property sold by auction shown on the land registry?....house down the road sold for 30% less than the house next door did six months previously, it had a bigger garden as well, brought down the whole average value of the street that did. :blink:

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1334415485' post='909013666']
If the Land Registry figures included all sales, as they should, there would be no need for extrapolation.
[/quote]

Agree. Data transparency in the UK is poor. However surely if there were a massive detachment between auction prices and selling prices arbitrageurs would move in and close the gap. Yes credit is restricted but not to those already in "pwopertie". So what's the gap in percentage points in your opinion?

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[quote name='bmf' timestamp='1334416292' post='909013674']
Agree. Data transparency in the UK is poor. However surely if there were a massive detachment between auction prices and selling prices arbitrageurs would move in and close the gap. Yes credit is restricted but not to those already in "pwopertie". So what's the gap in percentage points in your opinion?
[/quote]

Well, I see prices down 20% in my area and people provide graphs to show they've gone up 5%, so I could hazard a guess at 25%. You don't need to exclude many low value repossessions in a low volume market to distort the figures massively.

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1334411254' post='909013631']
That would be asking prices, yes?
[/quote]


Sold. SE London / Kent.

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1334416605' post='909013676']
Well, I see prices down 20% in my area and people provide graphs to show they've gone up 5%, so I could hazard a guess at 25%. You don't need to exclude many low value repossessions in a low volume market to distort the figures massively.
[/quote]

True - low volume makes avg price less indicative either up or down.

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