rantnrave

Front Page Graph

22 posts in this topic

Hasn't been updated on HPC but looks like this now:

Mp4IF.png

Any chance of an update here mods?

Look at the poor kitty... Must be seeing things - "it's different this time...."

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So when does that red trend line turn negative?

If it's based on an average since 1975 how much of a crash would we need to see it start to turn down? a pretty big and long one (ooerr missus) no?

Don't we have better graphs than this to put on our home page?

Edited by kev-all-in

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I've checked with Fubra support and they will speak to the developers on Monday to see if there is an easy way to update these graphs.

I'm probably being stupid, but if you can't update the files on the fubra server directly, couldn't you replace them with external links to images on a server you can update?

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It's a trend line so it won't 'turn negative'. Think of it as nothing more than a best fit curve through a set of historical points.

As real prices fall, the trend line will continue to be dragged down slowly (and straightened out a little). It's already happening, but it's barely noticeable on a month by month basis.

Personally, I don't like trend lines as they tell you absolutely nothing about the future. Despite this, many people try extrapolating into the future with them.

It could turn 'negative' but that would require quite a bout of deflation and a complete collapse in house prices :) There's nothing to stop the long term trend being negative, well except the government has access to the boys with the printing press. Exponential decay as opposed to growth :))

Edited by zebbedee

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The trend line has been dragged up by the recent rampant HPI. It will drop down as prices continue to fall, but it is a bit misleading as it shows us now being below trend although we are still well above average price to earnings ratio. I'll probably start looking to buy when price to earnings ratio gets near to 3.

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Hasn't been updated on HPC but looks like this now:

Mp4IF.png

Any chance of an update here mods?

When was the trend line last updated? How often is it updated?

Edited by nmarks

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Nice sig Milton.

I was lucky enough to be able to afford to buy under the previous Conservative government.

I was also lucky enough to have had a job as well.

Sorting out labors mess will take years imo

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It could turn 'negative' but that would require quite a bout of deflation and a complete collapse in house prices :) There's nothing to stop the long term trend being negative, well except the government has access to the boys with the printing press. Exponential decay as opposed to growth :))

Secular trends that push house prices up include

  • The fall in price of everything else, leaving everyone with more money sloshing around.

  • The downward trend in interest rates.

  • Real improvements adding real value.

Even if we got rid of all the oft-repeated arguments of too many people, demographic trends, two-income households, we'd still have a long way to go before food and clothes take a chunk out of minimum - let alone average - wage. That £50 loaf of bread and £200 t-shirt from Primark would be the kind of things to leave us without spare money to push up house prices.

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The trend line has been dragged up by the recent rampant HPI. It will drop down as prices continue to fall, but it is a bit misleading as it shows us now being below trend although we are still well above average price to earnings ratio. I'll probably start looking to buy when price to earnings ratio gets near to 3.

+1

Also, looking at real prices only makes sense when wage inflation is closely coupled with cost inflation - which has obviously not been the case in recent years. This has the effect of making the crash look like it doesn't have as far to go as is actually the case.

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The house price to earnings one should be there.

houselongterm.png

Quite. The trend becomes self justifying as the "boom" period pulls the trend up and the small correction so far then falls below the adjusted trend line when in fact as your graph shows prices are still far above the long term average. I'd like to see the trend graph removed from the front page.

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Many thanks for this thread. It's a continuing source of annoyance for me that this graph hasn't been updated for so long!

It would be great if it could be updated more regularly from now on please?

The graphs in the 'graphs' section of the site look horrible and hard to read too, IMHO. I know they are limited by being created on the fly, but they are really ugly. They're far too small for a start, and the axis scales are often too close together with overlapping numbers, the fonts and colours and overall sizes are all terrible. It's such a sad let-down when compared with phd's graphs for example. But casual visitors won't find those - they need to see nice graphs in the graphs section!

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The house price to earnings one should be there.

houselongterm.png

I also agree with thecrashingisles and others. House prices to earnings are more intuitive, more relevant to mortgage finance discussions and perhaps a better indicator of where a likely bottom will eventually be in UK house prices

Its also an easier concept for a new visitor to the site to understand.

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The significant point is that the Real House Price line has moved significantly below the trend line.

That is the significant market signal for those who want to read it.

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The significant point is that the Real House Price line has moved significantly below the trend line.

That is the significant market signal for those who want to read it.

It's not significant because -

a - The trend line is distorted by the size of the recent bubble

b - Even following the shape of the last bust it would have taken 6-8 years for a house bought at this stage to get back to the price paid

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It's not significant because -

a - The trend line is distorted by the size of the recent bubble

b - Even following the shape of the last bust it would have taken 6-8 years for a house bought at this stage to get back to the price paid

c - it also depends on the point in time you chose to start the trend line. Starting just ten years ago (ten years is still a long time IMHO) would give a totally different trend line.

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