pyewackitt

Post Olympics Meltdown

44 posts in this topic

Starting from some comments in the BBC news thread it got me thinking on the mini-boom we could be entering and more importantly what will happen as we end the summer and things revert back to the norm.

Here's a few starters on things that may happen in the post Olympics UK - try to think of things specific to having a major Olympics in the UK not just summer.

1) Reduced sales of TV's and Sky packages etc.
2) Reduced sales of Booze, BBQ goods etc.
3) Reduced sales of all associated transport, hotels, private lettings etc.
4) Higher unemployment as the Games economy ends
5) Lower income from congestion zone, parking fines and clamping
6) Impact to Olypmics spend related industries - construction, hospitality, catering etc.

What else can HPC'ers think of to add?

- Pye

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i dont think ti will just be the Olympics, but the Euro's and the Jubilee which will affect consumer sentiment, and also peoples spending "patterns"

ive been banging on about the ecconomic effect major sporting events have when they are not even in this Country, let alone when they are, and have such the fanfair in the lead up to it.

my post from that BBC thread http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=176741&st=0

its not so much the London area (which will have a knock on affect with prices) but the distraction of these 3 major events happening in sucession during the summer. how i see it going

this will impact retail sales a bit. during, but i'm expecting electrical sales to jump in between april and June, where people buy new TV's etc for the sports, expecialyl now freeview HD will be avalaible to 90% of the UK.

Food shops will see a surge in Alcohol sales as well as BBQ staples. during the 3 months, this will be because people will choose to drink at home more and have more BBQ's "parties" than go to the pub. Pub takings will slump over June july and August, they wil lrecover a bit in September when they start doing new promotions.

Holiday companys will also get hit, as people stay in the UK for holiday, same as above

i personally think Q1 and the start of Q2 will be a non event for the Ecconomy, but it will be hailed as a recovery and that Georgie will be revered as the saviour. the real SHTF moment will be the end of Q2 - Q3 once the party's have finised, and the summer events have gone, and the reality of life kicks back in. remember the fuel duty rise of 3p has been postponed to August/september, this wil lhit companies and individuals hard. especially if fuel rises like it is. and with the July 1st treaty for the whole of Europe not ot buy fuel from iran, fuel in Europe at least wil lget more scarse and expensive.

THIS is when we will see a sharp rise in unemployement, (120,000+ in september alone) companies like HMV, Blockbusters, Comet will be on their last legs. some optomism will be there as Xmas is comming. but do this Xmas is the one that will really make or break the Retail sector, as people either spend less or shop online more.

but thats only my opnion, i could be and will probably be miles off the mark

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i think you might be over estimating the effect the olympics has, particularly on the tv sales/sky subs bit - everyone i know couldnt give a toss about it

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[quote name='culvers' timestamp='1332516804' post='908998493']
i think you might be over estimating the effect the olympics has, particularly on the tv sales/sky subs bit - everyone i know couldnt give a toss about it
[/quote]

its the Euros though, Football sells TV's and people may be using the olympics as a second justification to the missus to warrent spending upto £1000 on a new flash TV. 2 for 1 if you like.

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I think culvers is broadly correct. Not many people give a flying fig about the Olympics. It will get talked about and watched, for sure, but it's hardly the football world cup.

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[quote name='pyewackitt' timestamp='1332514877' post='908998468']
Starting from some comments in the BBC news thread it got me thinking on the mini-boom we could be entering and more importantly what will happen as we end the summer and things revert back to the norm.

Here's a few starters on things that may happen in the post Olympics UK - try to think of things specific to having a major Olympics in the UK not just summer.

1) Reduced sales of TV's and Sky packages etc.
2) Reduced sales of Booze, BBQ goods etc.
3) Reduced sales of all associated transport, hotels, private lettings etc.
4) Higher unemployment as the Games economy ends
5) Lower income from congestion zone, parking fines and clamping
6) Impact to Olypmics spend related industries - construction, hospitality, catering etc.

What else can HPC'ers think of to add?

- Pye
[/quote]

construction sector slump leading to net export of working population pushing rentals down?

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[quote name='culvers' timestamp='1332516804' post='908998493']
i think you might be over estimating the effect the olympics has, particularly on the tv sales/sky subs bit - everyone i know couldnt give a toss about it
[/quote]


Hear hear.

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[quote name='pyewackitt' timestamp='1332514877' post='908998468']what will happen as we end the summer and things revert back to the norm.[/quote]

Hundreds of thousands will be made homeless in a fire-storm of repossession and will end up living in aircraft hangers.

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What mini boom?

Rents in London are falling now. -5% in north London according to Savills last month.

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[quote name='Flatdog' timestamp='1332529973' post='908998663']
Hear hear.
[/quote]

And me. I might watch the women beach ball on telly if Im around but the rest .. not interest.
Oh maybe the repeats if that skinny paula woman has a dump but thats it.

I'd guess the first rounds of the world cup feature the faroe islands vs north korea gets more viewers than the olympics.

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Will make a big difference in london - there's a lot of locust property speculators that follow the olympics property trail hoping to cash in. They have to sell up to move their money onto the next venue. Edited by OnlyMe

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The East end of London is one of the few parts of the city where it can be economical to manufacture for the London Market. So what do they do? They decide to restrict the A12 & A13 to 1 lane for 18 hours per day for 10 weeks.

Olympics Uplift? Last nail in the coffin for London industry...

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[quote name='Pent Up' timestamp='1332531295' post='908998680']
What mini boom?

Rents in London are falling now. -5% in north London according to Savills last month.
[/quote]

Link please!

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[quote name='bmf' timestamp='1332536829' post='908998743']
Link please!
[/quote]

It was prime rentals on an annual basis. Never actually read the report just saw it on twitter. Here it is:

http://pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/residential---other/market-in-minutes---lettings-q1-2012.pdf

Still not looking great considering the Olympic effect that everyone is raving about.

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[quote name='Pent Up' timestamp='1332539269' post='908998761']
It was prime rentals on an annual basis. Never actually read the report just saw it on twitter. Here it is:

http://pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/residential---other/market-in-minutes---lettings-q1-2012.pdf

Still not looking great considering the Olympic effect that everyone is raving about.
[/quote]

As far as I can recall, markets (houses and equities) fall rather hard starting within a month of the end of the Olympics. There is no evidence to suggest that London will be any different to Atens, Seoul etc.

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What's the long-range weather going to be like for the Olympics?
Chris25?

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Some predictions of the summer -

There will be more disturbances casting London in a poor light around the world.

Quite a few people coming in as tourists from places such as Nigeria and India/Pakistan claiming to visit the games and wont go back again. If your going to do that this summer when it's very busy would be the best time. They wont be kicked out as border guard numbers are continuously cut.

The shine in East London will wear off pretty thin as overcrowding continues to worsen and quality of life goes down.

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I'm fairly sure France deserved the Olympics, and sorry we got it! :unsure:

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I think the British Public will be spent out by the time the Olympics arrives. There will have been the Euro footie and the Diamond Jubilee before that.

The only people I know who are excited about the Olympics are BBC journos - especially Fivelive lot - who presumably are all getting paid to go there. Oh, and politicians.

I don't recall a single person I know in Wales mentioning the Olympics other than to say that they intend to avoid London this year.

I think by the time the Olympics come the papers, who will have tried to spin it positively, will be writing stories about people not spending, etc.

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I can't get too excited about it all....I might watch a few selective athletic sports on the TV and go to see the torch run through....apart from that I will avoid watching the news programes because getting too much of a good thing spoils it....so will be switching off and getting out and about......an amateur games has now become big money to be taken advantage of, is sport now becoming its own big bubble? :unsure:

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It's a disaster for the country.

False hopes pinned on it, tax money wasted on it, unemployment figures distorted by it, jingoism encouraged by it. It was a sad day when the 2012 Olympics were awarded to London :(.

At least I shall be out of the country from late April until September, thank God.

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1332585517' post='908999002']
It's a disaster for the country.

False hopes pinned on it, tax money wasted on it, unemployment figures distorted by it, jingoism encouraged by it. It was a sad day when the 2012 Olympics were awarded to London :(.

At least I shall be out of the country from late April until September, thank God.
[/quote]
Humbug

We shall be coming back for a few days in August going to the Gymnastics and doing our bit for the British recovereh (hoping to get a Bombay Bad Boy in on the sneak at some point aswell) Edited by Georgia O'Keeffe

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[quote name='Georgia O'Keeffe' timestamp='1332586765' post='908999016']
Humbug


[/quote]

Really? It took Canada over 30 years to pay off theirs. Greece probably never will.

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[quote name='Bruce Banner' timestamp='1332587199' post='908999019']
Really? It took Canada over 30 years to pay off theirs. Greece probably never will.
[/quote]
yes really, we're going to have a good time watching the athletes, the kids are looking forawrd to it and our attendance wont change it having to be paid for, if the uk didnt want the bill they probably shouldnt have bid for it instead of celebrating whooping the French in Trafalgar Square if i remember correctly Edited by Georgia O'Keeffe

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