JonoP

The Nineties

84 posts in this topic

what a load of old codswallop

house prices are toast

+1. But it was quite funny/nonsensical codswallop. :lol:

Edited by Milton

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An interesting thread. My contribution is this:

I personally don't believe that things will go back to the way they were, and I am sorry to say that 'this time it really is different'. Why? The medium we are using to have this discussion.

The rise of the internet, and indeed the absolutely massive increase in both the speed and volume of personal communications is, in my opinion the difference. The internet is a world changer - and it is tearing up the rule book of what came before. The spivs and sharks have not been slow in exploiting it. Aleady we have viral marketing, hype and b*llcrap being spread around by PR companies pushing 'the next big thing'. The BBC in the day at least seems to one big plug for either new movies (Breakfast Time), Antiques (Bargain Hunt) or Property (HUTH etc). The speed with which news travels was unthinkable in the mid 90s. Bubbles are being artifically inflated by certain interested parties (gold, classic cars, collectable watches, houses, even Ebay is not immune. People will collect anything, and the interent has let the cat out of the bag. Very niche and geeky things I used to collect years ago - all have gone nuts in terms of price, and this is because so many people have access to these things through web sales. There are no more bargains, everyone is now too savvy and switched on for that.

So, I am afraid I don't think houses will drop much. The messgae about what a great investment they are is too deeply ingrained in people. The moment something is perceived as a 'bargain', the news travels in a flash and 1000 people jump on it. No longer a bargain.....

I take the opposite view - the internet is empowering consumers to spot and avoid overpriced crud, whether it's a house or a DVD on Amazon.

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I think the attitude of this Gov't and the previous is that they don't really care whether property is affordable to ordinary people. They just want to shift boxes at the highest possible price and are quite happy for foreign investors or the buy to let/landlord brigade to rule the market. They appear to care more about creating wealth rather than providing a family base. All the govt is concerned with is income and they do not care how they get it, the same mindset they appear to have where jobs are concerned.

IF prices did fall, how long would they stay affordable with all that money sloshing around in banks earning no interest? Surely it would create a situation where all the best houses were snapped up very quickly, all going to investors for rental.

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IF prices did fall, how long would they stay affordable with all that money sloshing around in banks earning no interest? Surely it would create a situation where all the best houses were snapped up very quickly, all going to investors for rental.

Better buy now before they're all snapped up then :rolleyes:.

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what a load of old codswallop Now, now, no need to get your handbag out!

speculation is 1000s of years old, human nature is not going top be changed by the internet Indeed, my point was that the internet allows a great many more (mostly stupid) people to indulge it it - creating bubble after bubble that seem to defy gravity.

what you seem to be implying is that the internet makes for a more efficient market with more informed participants which is patently untrue given that we have just also suffered the biggest credit crunch in human history Why? Um, no, I implied nothing of the sort. What I was saying is lots of people bought lots of shiny things they never even realised they existed, or indeed never would have done if they did not have it rammed down their throats 24/7. Did that happen in the 70s in anyway near the same level? Was the technology there to do it?

what can be overvalued in the age of the internet can also be undervalued in the age of the internet Oh really? So, if I want to sell my house and I advertise in my local rag and supermarket in 1990, it will reach mainly local people, possibly some who are taking an interest in moving to my town. In 2012, I have an audience of basically anyone who has the internet anywhere in the world. A much larger audience I am sure you will agree. Add in the constant bull about 'property only evey goes up', and 'invest now' etc, and what do you think the result will be? If I have an audience of say 40 million, I am far more likey to find some deranged idiot to pay my made up asking price that the perhaos 10000 people who would have seen the advert for my house in 1990.

what about Northern Ireland? Japan? More great examples of 'information rich, but very stupid' buyers piling in and wreaking havoc. Can you imagine what the Tulip bubble would have been like if they had had the internet back then? More or less horrendous?

and if everybody was so well financially informed - why oh were the trading volumes for the stockmarket so low in early 2009? why were almost everybody I met giving me funny looks for me buying up shares by the bucketload? When did I say that they were well informed?? I said they were exposed to hype and b*llcrap like never before. They jump on any bandwagon that looks enticing - something people have always done. My poiunt was people are exposed to a lot more of that thanks to the explosion in information available to them - I never said there was any intelligence to the choices they make!

you provide no evidence for your assertion, which remains just that, an assertion without foundation Indeed, which is why I used the magic words ' I personally don't believe',and 'in my opinion'. Did you actually read what I wrote before you made you mind up? It is based on my experiences in every single collectable market I ever dealt in from 1998 to 2010 - without exception prices went completely insane in that time as more and more people became aware and jumped on the bandwagon 'as an investment don't you know'. In 1980, you could buy an ex SBS Rolex 5517 as Navy surplus from my local 'odds and ends' store. They used to sell them for around £100 as 'just another watch'. In 1995 they were selling for maybe £10k? Now they are £85 to £100k. Go figure. Competion for the 'must have' classic watch has driven the prices insane. ARe they 'worth' £100k? If enough people see it, you will it seems find someone who thinks so.

house prices are toast OK, if you are sure. I believe that would be an assertion, without foundation!

I have to say I don't understand why you have to be so unpleasent in your reply. You clearly misunderstood what I was trying to say, and simply saw what you wanted to see, another 'House Price Crash Unbeliever'. I don't like things as they are any more than you do - but the information revolution is here to stay, and it is having a massive impact. Please try and be civil in your replies. Treat others as you would have them treat you.

Edited by vlad the impaler

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what a load of old codswallop Now, now, no need to get your handbag out!

speculation is 1000s of years old, human nature is not going top be changed by the internet Indeed, my point was that the internet allows a great many more (mostly stupid) people to indulge it it - creating bubble after bubble that seem to defy gravity.

what you seem to be implying is that the internet makes for a more efficient market with more informed participants which is patently untrue given that we have just also suffered the biggest credit crunch in human history Why? Um, no, I implied nothing of the sort. What I was saying is lots of people bought lots of shiny things they never even realised they existed, or indeed never would have done if they did not have it rammed down their throats 24/7. Did that happen in the 70s in anyway near the same level? Was the technology there to do it?

what can be overvalued in the age of the internet can also be undervalued in the age of the internet Oh really? So, if I want to sell my house and I advertise in my local rag and supermarket in 1990, it will reach mainly local people, possibly some who are taking an interest in moving to my town. In 2012, I have an audience of basically anyone who has the internet anywhere in the world. A much larger audience I am sure you will agree. Add in the constant bull about 'property only evey goes up', and 'invest now' etc, and what do you think the result will be? If I have an audience of say 40 million, I am far more likey to find some deranged idiot to pay my made up asking price that the perhaos 10000 people who would have seen the advert for my house in 1990.

what about Northern Ireland? Japan? More great examples of 'information rich, but very stupid' buyers piling in and wreaking havoc. Can you imagine what the Tulip bubble would have been like if they had had the internet back then? More or less horrendous?

and if everybody was so well financially informed - why oh were the trading volumes for the stockmarket so low in early 2009? why were almost everybody I met giving me funny looks for me buying up shares by the bucketload? When did I say that they were well informed?? I said they were exposed to hype and b*llcrap like never before. They jump on any bandwagon that looks enticing - something people have always done. My poiunt was people are exposed to a lot more of that thanks to the explosion in information available to them - I never said there was any intelligence to the choices they make!

you provide no evidence for your assertion, which remains just that, an assertion without foundation Indeed, which is why I used the magic words ' I personally don't believe',and 'in my opinion'. Did you actually read what I wrote before you made you mind up? It is based on my experiences in every single collectable market I ever dealt in from 1998 to 2010 - without exception prices went completely insane in that time as more and more people became aware and jumped on the bandwagon 'as an investment don't you know'. In 1980, you could buy an ex SBS Rolex 5517 as Navy surplus from my local 'odds and ends' store. They used to sell them for around £100 as 'just another watch'. In 1995 they were selling for maybe £10k? Now they are £85 to £100k. Go figure. Competion for the 'must have' classic watch has driven the prices insane. ARe they 'worth' £100k? If enough people see it, you will it seems find someone who thinks so.

house prices are toast OK, if you are sure. I believe that would be an assertion, without foundation!

I have to say I don't understand why you have to be so unpleasent in your reply. You clearly misunderstood what I was trying to say, and simply saw what you wanted to see, another 'House Price Crash Unbeliever'. I don't like things as they are any more than you do - but the information revolution is here to stay, and it is having a massive impact. Please try and be civil in your replies. Treat others as you would have them treat you.

i am not that well educated i am just a builder i spell check every thing i post but i can read and understand your point because what you point out has afected me directly respect to the impaler (like your thread)

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what a load of old codswallop Now, now, no need to get your handbag out!

speculation is 1000s of years old, human nature is not going top be changed by the internet Indeed, my point was that the internet allows a great many more (mostly stupid) people to indulge it it - creating bubble after bubble that seem to defy gravity.

what you seem to be implying is that the internet makes for a more efficient market with more informed participants which is patently untrue given that we have just also suffered the biggest credit crunch in human history Why? Um, no, I implied nothing of the sort. What I was saying is lots of people bought lots of shiny things they never even realised they existed, or indeed never would have done if they did not have it rammed down their throats 24/7. Did that happen in the 70s in anyway near the same level? Was the technology there to do it?

what can be overvalued in the age of the internet can also be undervalued in the age of the internet Oh really? So, if I want to sell my house and I advertise in my local rag and supermarket in 1990, it will reach mainly local people, possibly some who are taking an interest in moving to my town. In 2012, I have an audience of basically anyone who has the internet anywhere in the world. A much larger audience I am sure you will agree. Add in the constant bull about 'property only evey goes up', and 'invest now' etc, and what do you think the result will be? If I have an audience of say 40 million, I am far more likey to find some deranged idiot to pay my made up asking price that the perhaos 10000 people who would have seen the advert for my house in 1990.

what about Northern Ireland? Japan? More great examples of 'information rich, but very stupid' buyers piling in and wreaking havoc. Can you imagine what the Tulip bubble would have been like if they had had the internet back then? More or less horrendous?

and if everybody was so well financially informed - why oh were the trading volumes for the stockmarket so low in early 2009? why were almost everybody I met giving me funny looks for me buying up shares by the bucketload? When did I say that they were well informed?? I said they were exposed to hype and b*llcrap like never before. They jump on any bandwagon that looks enticing - something people have always done. My poiunt was people are exposed to a lot more of that thanks to the explosion in information available to them - I never said there was any intelligence to the choices they make!

you provide no evidence for your assertion, which remains just that, an assertion without foundation Indeed, which is why I used the magic words ' I personally don't believe',and 'in my opinion'. Did you actually read what I wrote before you made you mind up? It is based on my experiences in every single collectable market I ever dealt in from 1998 to 2010 - without exception prices went completely insane in that time as more and more people became aware and jumped on the bandwagon 'as an investment don't you know'. In 1980, you could buy an ex SBS Rolex 5517 as Navy surplus from my local 'odds and ends' store. They used to sell them for around £100 as 'just another watch'. In 1995 they were selling for maybe £10k? Now they are £85 to £100k. Go figure. Competion for the 'must have' classic watch has driven the prices insane. ARe they 'worth' £100k? If enough people see it, you will it seems find someone who thinks so.

house prices are toast OK, if you are sure. I believe that would be an assertion, without foundation!

I have to say I don't understand why you have to be so unpleasent in your reply. You clearly misunderstood what I was trying to say, and simply saw what you wanted to see, another 'House Price Crash Unbeliever'. I don't like things as they are any more than you do - but the information revolution is here to stay, and it is having a massive impact. Please try and be civil in your replies. Treat others as you would have them treat you.

your lazy thinking is far more uncivil than my tone

and far more damaging

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