hedi

Stop Moaning.

68 posts in this topic

a lot of people on here recently are getting disgruntled about how things have panned out.

i personally left the market a few years ago with a hopefull expection that the boom was over. well, the boom is over. outside of london houses have been slipping somewhat slowly, but slipping. no there has not been a crash. well with .5 pct base rate that not really a supprise. the govenment has done all it can, along with banks who would go bust,lets be honest if a crash happened, to maintain prices as best they can.

a lot of us took the perfectly rational view that booms come to an end one way or another. we never invisaged a reasonably sound economic state printing money, who did.

but that was our gamble. thats what investment is.

the question is what to do now, not bitch about how we might have got it wrong.

if you need a large mortgage to buy then a house must me looked upon as an investment that can lose money. if you are buying for cash, then it somewhere to house you rent free.

as an investment , i think that the housing market has little going for it long term. there are many aspect often overlooked.

forget about short term things like interet rates and btl, they can in some ways be contrived by amanipulation, but other things can not.

the big one is financial demographics. simple logic, poorer people cannot afford more expensive housing. and we are going to get poorer, in real terms, and barring some unknown unknown thats a fact. this applies to the whole of europe.

the young are the hpc saviours. if you are fifty or sixty and sitting on your 1m pound property hoping to sell in 10 years for 2m and retire, i am affraid you are in for a nasty shock. where on earth do you think someone who is 30 now is going to get that sort of money, when they are years away from their first flat. and remember baby boomers, there are an awful lot of you who will all want to be selling at the same time, just as you all wanted to buy at the same time. (incidently forcing up prices) and how many are going to want to sell the second homes as well.

demographics is the real clue to long term investment. and from what i can see we are going japanese. moreso in the rest of europe than here.

the real question is what now. as far as i can see the govenment and bank are trying to stear the good ship uk economy( and west in total) between the rocks of depressive deflation and the waterfall of hyper inflation ( consequence of money printing) . now at the moment it looks like they are succeeding.but the straights of water between the two are getting narrower and there is no sign of open ocean yet, what ever they tell you.

baised on historical evidence the good ship britian will hit the rocks or go over the water fall. the problem is that the debts are so vast that depression could come or they are printing so much money it could be hyper inflation. now im no expert and from what i read no one really has any idea which way this will go. so all i think you can do is hedge your bets, have some multinational assests, have some cash. and jump one way or the other when it becomes clearer.

accept that you are not an expert and that you are going to become poorer in one way or another, keep an eye to trends stop worrying about volitility and try to come out of this with as mouch as you can save.

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a lot of people on here recently are getting disgruntled about how things have panned out.

i personally left the market a few years ago with a hopefull expection that the boom was over. well, the boom is over. outside of london houses have been slipping somewhat slowly, but slipping. no there has not been a crash. well with .5 pct base rate that not really a supprise. the govenment has done all it can, along with banks who would go bust,lets be honest if a crash happened, to maintain prices as best they can.

a lot of us took the perfectly rational view that booms come to an end one way or another. we never invisaged a reasonably sound economic state printing money, who did.

but that was our gamble. thats what investment is.

the question is what to do now, not bitch about how we might have got it wrong.

if you need a large mortgage to buy then a house must me looked upon as an investment that can lose money. if you are buying for cash, then it somewhere to house you rent free.

as an investment , i think that the housing market has little going for it long term. there are many aspect often overlooked.

forget about short term things like interet rates and btl, they can in some ways be contrived by amanipulation, but other things can not.

the big one is financial demographics. simple logic, poorer people cannot afford more expensive housing. and we are going to get poorer, in real terms, and barring some unknown unknown thats a fact. this applies to the whole of europe.

the young are the hpc saviours. if you are fifty or sixty and sitting on your 1m pound property hoping to sell in 10 years for 2m and retire, i am affraid you are in for a nasty shock. where on earth do you think someone who is 30 now is going to get that sort of money, when they are years away from their first flat. and remember baby boomers, there are an awful lot of you who will all want to be selling at the same time, just as you all wanted to buy at the same time. (incidently forcing up prices) and how many are going to want to sell the second homes as well.

demographics is the real clue to long term investment. and from what i can see we are going japanese. moreso in the rest of europe than here.

the real question is what now. as far as i can see the govenment and bank are trying to stear the good ship uk economy( and west in total) between the rocks of depressive deflation and the waterfall of hyper inflation ( consequence of money printing) . now at the moment it looks like they are succeeding.but the straights of water between the two are getting narrower and there is no sign of open ocean yet, what ever they tell you.

baised on historical evidence the good ship britian will hit the rocks or go over the water fall. the problem is that the debts are so vast that depression could come or they are printing so much money it could be hyper inflation. now im no expert and from what i read no one really has any idea which way this will go. so all i think you can do is hedge your bets, have some multinational assests, have some cash. and jump one way or the other when it becomes clearer.

accept that you are not an expert and that you are going to become poorer in one way or another, keep an eye to trends stop worrying about volitility and try to come out of this with as mouch as you can save.

We didn't get it wrong

Our country's leaders finally 'came out' as the corporatist-crony dictators they are (and have been - veiled for decades!)

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I think we're entitled to a rant - we've been shafted! However you are right, it's what we do from now. The only thing I'm focusing on is self-education and getting better at my job - as I gather more experience, if I don't get to where I want here, I will at least have the chance of moving abroad. That will be this year or next. Might not be the best solution but at least I'll have tried.

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I think we're entitled to a rant - we've been shafted! However you are right, it's what we do from now. The only thing I'm focusing on is self-education and getting better at my job - as I gather more experience, if I don't get to where I want here, I will at least have the chance of moving abroad. That will be this year or next. Might not be the best solution but at least I'll have tried.

It's far from over. We haven't seen the end of it. It's about to get really interesting, perhaps later than many here predicted, myself included. Now is the time of the bull trap.

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Guys I don't think you should despair just yet.

I doubtless be accused of gloating, but I did well from this site and its predictions.

I was lucky to STR just before the crash in 2007 and then bought back in in 2009 with some hard negotiations.

My take is that you need to make your own crash. The market is truly weird at the moment, and yes people are still selling for insane valuations whilst there is actually very little volume. If you want to buy at a discount you need to do some legwork - I was in rented for 2 years and in that time visited probably 200 potential houses until eventually, I found one I liked and where the vendor was willing to take a hit.

The 3 Ds are you friend - Death, Divorce and Debt, though I'd also add Desperate Developers to the list which is where I made my luck.

to the list which is where I made my luck.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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Why shouldn't I moan? I like a good moan. We didn't get it wrong, the gov't did and are still doing it wrong. The banks could and should have been allowed to fail if they had to. Depositors' money could have been protected or re-imbursed by gov't but the banks themselves are not essential for the depositors' money to be protected.

Moan, moan, moan. There. I feel better now.

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I don't like the way this country has been run. I can see the flaws.

I do not cry about my personal circumstances because I can take action to hedge against mistakes.

We all know our currency is being devalued . Stop whinging that your 50k or whatever savings you have are being inflated.

By retaining in cash you are deliberately, wilfully, and explicitly accepting a counterparty whose credibility you doubt.

You are no different than a sub prime investor.

If you don't like the monetary policy of your fiat issuer short them or move your cash to gold .

This forum is full of people who were banging on about their pile of savings this time last year and how they hated chopper and merv and how qe was destroying their savings.

Did any of you keep it in Gbp despite your knowledge? Then stop whinging! You took a gamble and now you blame someone else for a decision you knew was wrong!

If you had 100k for a 50 pc deposit this time last year and you had switched it to gold, ( with a bit of quanto ) you could now almost buy your house . One year to buy half a house? How much more of a ******in crash do you want?

If you didn't move to gold ( I didn't) then you chose the wrong currency to invest in, proably because you didn't want to ! Your choice, your outcome, not my fickin problem !

Edited by Sir Harold m

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a lot of people on here recently are getting disgruntled about how things have panned out.

This isn't just about house prices. It's about the future.

Democracy, truth, and justice are being discarded in order to save this ponzi scheme. In that respect, your claim that we're just moaning about not getting a house price crash doesn't give us the credit we deserve.

Edited by sleeping dog

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I don't like the way this country has been run. I can see the flaws.

I do not cry about my personal circumstances because I can take action to hedge against mistakes.

We all know our currency is being devalued . Stop whinging that your 50k or whatever savings you have are being inflated.

By retaining in cash you are deliberately, wilfully, and explicitly accepting a counterparty whose credibility you doubt.

You are no different than a sub prime investor.

If you don't like the monetary policy of your fiat issuer short them or move your cash to gold .

This forum is full of people who were banging on about their pile of savings this time last year and how they hated chopper and merv and how qe was destroying their savings.

Did any of you keep it in Gbp despite your knowledge? Then stop whinging! You took a gamble and now you blame someone else for a decision you knew was wrong!

If you had 100k for a 50 pc deposit this time last year and you had switched it to gold, ( with a bit of quanto ) you could now almost buy your house . One year to buy half a house? How much more of a ******in crash do you want?

If you didn't move to gold ( I didn't) then you chose the wrong currency to invest in, proably because you didn't want to ! Your choice, your outcome, not my fickin problem !

+100.

What's the point of spending hours on this site getting some useful information if you aren't going to make any use of it ?

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demographics is the real clue to long term investment. and from what i can see we are going japanese. moreso in the rest of europe than here.

Don't think Japan had massive immigration like we have/are experiencing, and the immigrants they did have werent from religious/cultural backgrounds that encouraged mass breeding.

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+100.

What's the point of spending hours on this site getting some useful information if you aren't going to make any use of it ?

...I don't agree, most people are not gamblers they earn their money and pay their taxes and believe that their country will maintain the value and care for any spare cash savings they earn in a responsible manner......gambling in precious metal is not for everyone, anything can become a bubble....

tbh holding some yellow metal will not necessarily protect anyone....if they need to spend/sell/use it, it will be gone then they will then be none the wiser or richer. ;)

Edited by winkie

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...I don't agree, most people are not gamblers they earn their money and pay their taxes and believe that their country will maintain the value and care for any spare cash savings they earn in a responsible manner......gambling in precious metal is not for everyone, anything can become a bubble....

tbh holding some yellow metal will not necessarily protect anyone....if they need to spend/sell/use it, it will be gone then they will then be none the wiser or richer. ;)

And this is where I would link to that thread about death bed wishes, if I knew how.

Live the life of a sheeple if you want, with all the unfulfilled desires and ambitions, moan at the sky, the ground, the world if you want. Have a mid life crisis if you want. Die unhappy if you want.

If life has taught me anything so far, its that no one, and no government and no organisation gives two hoots about my life, it is completely up to me to make my own happiness. We live in a country with an unbelievable freedom of choice and mobility, I'd rather take advantage of the good things rather than complain about the bad ones.

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This isn't just about house prices. It's about the future.

Democracy, truth, and justice are being discarded in order to save this ponzi scheme. In that respect, your claim that we're just moaning about not getting a house price crash doesn't give us the credit we deserve.

+1

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...I don't agree, most people are not gamblers they earn their money and pay their taxes and believe that their country will maintain the value and care for any spare cash savings they earn in a responsible manner......gambling in precious metal is not for everyone, anything can become a bubble....

tbh holding some yellow metal will not necessarily protect anyone....if they need to spend/sell/use it, it will be gone then they will then be none the wiser or richer. ;)

Right, so you are arguing investing in gold is "gambling" whereas holding currency isn't.

FTR I don't hold that much gold and wouldn't want to hold a huge amount. But I hold enough to hedge myself (and do this across a broad class of assets).

Anyone who thinks/believes politicians wouldn't f**k them over in order to stay in power is an idiot. I gave up belief that my country would look after me a few years after I stopped believing in Santa Claus.

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Right, so you are arguing investing in gold is "gambling" whereas holding currency isn't.

FTR I don't hold that much gold and wouldn't want to hold a huge amount. But I hold enough to hedge myself (and do this across a broad class of assets).

Anyone who thinks/believes politicians wouldn't f**k them over in order to stay in power is an idiot. I gave up belief that my country would look after me a few years after I stopped believing in Santa Claus.

I don't disagree with you, all I am saying gold will not save you the same as valueless cash won't.....sure diversify and spread your bets home and away.....this small country can only do as much as it can due to other factors beyond its control, the powerful have always and will always look after number one..... only we can save ourselves. ;)

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And this is where I would link to that thread about death bed wishes, if I knew how.

Live the life of a sheeple if you want, with all the unfulfilled desires and ambitions, moan at the sky, the ground, the world if you want. Have a mid life crisis if you want. Die unhappy if you want.

If life has taught me anything so far, its that no one, and no government and no organisation gives two hoots about my life, it is completely up to me to make my own happiness. We live in a country with an unbelievable freedom of choice and mobility, I'd rather take advantage of the good things rather than complain about the bad ones.

Crap

We have semi-secret dictators like "Common Purpose" leading councils and nod, wink, secret handshakers taking all the leader positions and manipulating us (with false pretence of a democracy)

"Nothing happens unless it was previously prepared in politics etc"

(Watch what happens after Cameroons visit to the Americas shortly!)

Millions of people have been forced to abandon cars due to their policies and they persecute motorists at every opportunity

The symbology of the motorist persecution by the satanists is cos

We is A christian country under spiritual attack and IN-CAR-NATION

Edited by erranta

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And this is where I would link to that thread about death bed wishes, if I knew how.

Live the life of a sheeple if you want, with all the unfulfilled desires and ambitions, moan at the sky, the ground, the world if you want. Have a mid life crisis if you want. Die unhappy if you want.

If life has taught me anything so far, its that no one, and no government and no organisation gives two hoots about my life, it is completely up to me to make my own happiness. We live in a country with an unbelievable freedom of choice and mobility, I'd rather take advantage of the good things rather than complain about the bad ones.

AndI say amen to that. My fridge is full, as is my stomach. I have a roof over my head and I have my brain and the capacity to further improve my lot should I choose.

One life. Best get busy.

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Actually, I feel reasonably gruntled. Anyone else?

I used to feel a bit angry. But it's pointless. Best to channel the anger and energy into a more constructive emotion.

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a lot of us took the perfectly rational view that booms come to an end one way or another. we never invisaged a reasonably sound economic state printing money, who did.

but that was our gamble. thats what investment is.

the question is what to do now, not bitch about how we might have got it wrong.

It was not impossible to realise what would happen. The people who said "this time it is different" were all belittled in 2003 when I started to read this forum (I joined a year later). You are right, the main difference this time is demographics (apart from globalisation) - we are seeing changes worldwide and especially in Europe related to demography that never happend in the history of mankind. The growth fueled by the global demographic dividend (the baby boomers starting to work) has come to a hold and will soon be reversed (and become a demographic liability, with all the baby boomers about to retire). Investors realised that the anticipated and required growth was not sustainable and a collapse followed.

The only logical and predictable response for governments were extremely low interest rates for extremely long times - like in Japan, where the demographic changes started far earlier. Japan is likely to lose a quarter of its population by 2050 (and the workforce will even shrink by a third) which will make it almost impossible for them to grow their economy and increase interest rates for decades. The UK does still see an increase of population, but it is not immune to the global changes to demography (in the age of globalisation), and even the UK population has started to age. Long term low interest rates seem to be the only way to deal with high debts from the demographic boom times. In the very long term house prices will not go up a lot due to demography, but they will also not go down a lot because long term ultra low interest rates have made mortgages more affordable.

Our conclusion in 2004 was that we would be better off buying a property as interest rates were likely to go down, and bought a flat, which we sold last year for a third more to buy a house - the increase in value was just 4% per year, and in future it might even be lower. We took a lifetime tracker when interest rates were still above 5% and lifetime trackers of BOE + 0.6% were the norm (like the one we are on now). I do not expect interest rates to rise significantly for a decade or more, unless there are massive changes to the planning laws (unfortunately unlikely) or we have a full blown collapse of the whole financial system, which would most likely devalue debts and would therefore probably be worse for renters than for owners, as renters normally have less debt to be eroded in such a collapse (which I think is still unlikely as too many capitalists, politicians etc. depend on maintaining the current system).

THE CONSEQUENCES ARE NOT THAT BAD, BUT A CRASH IS STILL UNLIKELY

The future of house prices in the UK seems to be very boring for many years, which is not bad and allows to plan ahead: Very little change of nominal house prices for many years, at most they will increase slightly in line with inflation but probably not change much at all, combined with ultra low interest rates for a decade and beyond. Based on this, buying still does seem to be the better choice, if you are prepared to stay for at least 5 years, as there will be no appreciation of house price to offset the buying and selling fees, taxes and expenses. If you want flexibility or plan to stay less than 5 years, it is now better to rent. This is in a way similar to the property market on the continent, where more people rent as buying only makes sense if you know you stay for at least 5 years. The time when you could buy a property in the UK and sell it after 2 years and still be better off then renting are probably over for good. The property ladder has now also less rungs, as people rent for longer and then only buy one or two properties in their life, like they do on the continent, and not a new home every few years. The renting market however will improve (due to EU and government legislation) and there will be more security and less social stigma with renting. Generally the housing market in the UK will become more European, which will remove a major obstacle of the UK joining the Euro.

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Why shouldn't I moan? I like a good moan. We didn't get it wrong, the gov't did and are still doing it wrong. The banks could and should have been allowed to fail if they had to. Depositors' money could have been protected or re-imbursed by gov't but the banks themselves are not essential for the depositors' money to be protected.

Moan, moan, moan. There. I feel better now.

I actually agree - in this case it is ok to moan or at least complain. Problem is we have no voice - no one is listening - and there isn't a champion for our cause with enough influence to make anything happen. Therefore are complaints are taken as moaning.

If I research buying a car, and on the balance of information provided pick a certain model, I would have every right to complain if I later found out that the information provided was in fact a pack of lies and worse still that I had no come-back on the supplier as the brochure has now been updated to reflect the latest set of lies. Thing is there's a mechanism in place to protect us from this sort of crooked behavior. The problem is that this principle isn't being applied to the financial system our so-called capitalist world. We are being lied to all the time – as such it is impossible for Joe Average to make an informed decision.

The situation is perverse, behavior is no longer rational and justified and if you dare speak reason you are vilified for ‘taking the situation down’ or ‘being jealous just because you haven’t got a house’. I believe most the people who take this line were not financial guru’s who have succeeded based on the outcome of some particularly deft planning and action. In truth they were just lucky.

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THE CONSEQUENCES ARE NOT THAT BAD, BUT A CRASH IS STILL UNLIKELY

A crash is inevitable but not the one this site was named after.

It's been years since I really thought just in terms of a housing crash.

Things nearly came to a head with the global economy in 2008 and nothing that has been done since has done anything to improved matters, in fact, just the reverse.

plates_phone_cropped.jpg

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