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Am I A Mug?


Total_Injustice

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HOLA441

I think Sir Sydney Ruff-diamond puts it well, they never saw the problems coming although people on this forum and elsewhere did. It frustrates me no end to hear the much used phrase " nobody could have seen this crisis coming " , it is of course absolute nonsense to suggest that no-one saw it coming.

But.... we now have the same people "who didn't see it coming" planning our escape. Sadly they wont see that what they are doing now with low interest rates and QE is wrong either.

However.... Bet against everything they tell you will happen and you'll win most of the time. "Greece won't leave the euro" . bet that it will.

"inflation will go back to 2% this year". bet against it.

"we will not go back into recession" . bet that we will.

"house prices will stabilize". say no more.

he cant here you hes to busy banging on that drum

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HOLA442
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HOLA443

Don't wait for ever but don't put your money into a house just yet. You will get your chance.

It is true that there has been a lack of "crisis" news in the bought and paid for media. You can find it if you look deeper, try the keiser report for example.

Shame Keiser is American - it's hard on the ears even if what he says has some substance.

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HOLA444

So. Pile in to debt for that is actually the more prudent option - you will be seen as a passive resource in the game that is being played out here where debt is good and prudence is to be exploited. Buy that house. Overstretch yourself. Do what is good for you and your family.

Ultimately the reckless shall inherit the earth. The meek and prudent will just get to whinge lots on forums like this while their savings are gently tapped up by the central bank in endless bouts of inflation, QE and absurdly and unprecedentedly low interest rates.

Times are hard, and the more intelligent and productive members of society have not been rewarded for their efforts. But hey, we're in a protracted period of economic and social collapse. Right now, things look pretty good compared to equivalent periods of history. No-one is (yet) trying to force me into a trench at gunpoint as per WW1/WW2. Until they do, I'll count myself lucky. Try Egypt right now, or Syria. Or try factory working for a pittance in one of the BRICs.

The world has many beautiful places - much more so than the UK - where the work/quality of life balance is better. Getting yourself into debt at this point in history is suicide. Debt can so easily be turned into slavery it's frightening. No debt, means freedom - to go where you want and do what you want.

Accept that sterling is of low value, but realise that it will get much worse over the next few years as the UK needs to meet more and more of our debts by printing. Buy hard currency, buy gold, even buy property (abroad), but don't keep grinding away here knowing full well what's going to happen to you...

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HOLA445

For years my wife and I both worked hard and saved the best we could. We kept some cash and opened a Personal Equity Plan, (being in the forces I was posted to north Scotland when home was in Devon!). We sold all our shares back when the market was at 6600 pts (late 2007). Why? - Because there was a lot of volatility in the market and I couldn’t stomach the risk being presented to our housing fund. We thought that what ever it is that will ‘correct house prices’ the FTSE will be affected too. So we got into cash and waited.

5 yrs on, yes 5 years, and the FTSE is knocking on the door of 6000pts again. I read that personal insolvencies are down 11% and I believe that all the semi detached 3-beds are still way over priced. So what’s my point? Well I feel like an absolute mug. Years ago I should have been as morally bankrupt as all the other chancers riding the housing market. Instead I let caution lead me down the path of financial buggery delivered by the interest rate dildo.

So now I’ve completely had my fill of it, and yet we seem to be heading back to ‘situation normal’. The news has been decidedly lacking on reporting financial issues since Christmas and I am seriously wondering if there has been an orchestrated effort keep the 'people' happy in an effort to turn public sentiment. Problem is the ‘people’ seem happy that things are getting better.

So I ask you what are we to do? Or do we just bend over and keep on taking it?

No, you are not a mug, you sound very level-headed and smart. This is probably the most dangerous period for Britain, in my opinion. Where are all the jobs going to come from? What happens when the UK's rating is downgraded and it can't rely on a reserve currency status? Will anyone buy their bonds? I haven't spoken to one person in Britain that is optimistic about their future. That's a big problem.

Personally I got sick to death of the Socialism/multiculturalism experiment in Britain and promptly left. The whole situation in the uk is perverse: too many immigrants, too many old people to support, too few people working, little reward for graft/running your own company and a country hellbent on destroying itself. Living hand to mouth is not my idea of fun. After 6 years of life in Seattle, I've decided I'll never go back to Britain. I just couldn't take the huge drop in living standards.

Britain is a place where it pays to be indolent. I knew a single-mother who bought her own council house. She never paid tax. She used to buy crap at jumble sales and put it on Ebay. Before she bought the council house she would be careful not to let her boyfriend stay overnight too often. She had the whole scam/benefits system worked out. Ten years on and she is sitting comfortably. Meanwhile, I know people who have grafted their whole lives, put off having kids, and still don't have their own houses!!!

Obama is trying his best to destroy the USA but at least I can buy a house or even a couple of houses and get to keep most of my hard graft. If house prices do fall significantly in Britain I think you'll have more to worry about than buying a home!

Edited by Xurbia
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HOLA446

Times are hard, and the more intelligent and productive members of society have not been rewarded for their efforts. But hey, we're in a protracted period of economic and social collapse. Right now, things look pretty good compared to equivalent periods of history. No-one is (yet) trying to force me into a trench at gunpoint as per WW1/WW2. Until they do, I'll count myself lucky. Try Egypt right now, or Syria. Or try factory working for a pittance in one of the BRICs.

The world has many beautiful places - much more so than the UK - where the work/quality of life balance is better. Getting yourself into debt at this point in history is suicide. Debt can so easily be turned into slavery it's frightening. No debt, means freedom - to go where you want and do what you want.

Accept that sterling is of low value, but realise that it will get much worse over the next few years as the UK needs to meet more and more of our debts by printing. Buy hard currency, buy gold, even buy property (abroad), but don't keep grinding away here knowing full well what's going to happen to you...

Great post!

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HOLA447

Wrong, we aren't all mugs. Just you and the handful of others on HPC that kept their savings in sterling instead of gold. If you kept your savings in gold and / or silver you wouldnt be losing money from inflation. Nothing wrong with being prudent, but sterling is NOT an investment.

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HOLA448
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HOLA449

Constant growth the cancerous cure, a swarming race of profiteers ensure cheap cars for the rich, cheap lives for the poor, cheap weeks in the sun, free drinks at the door. Puerile propaganda plugs up the TV, keep folk following the money so they'll never be free.

Bankrupt schools grind out fool after fool then feed them to a system where idiots rule. Polling booths, phone votes, bogus questionnaires, you get a say as if anybody cares. Joe Public doesn't want to play so liquidate his life as he looks the other way.

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HOLA4411

"The fact is that this crisis has shown how immensely powerful the media is. After a few more years unless things turn round were going to just move to Germany because at the end of the day it's quality of life that matters and I cant see much of that here. "

Depends where you go in German, though, right? Do you know the rents you'd be paying there? Why do you think quality of life would be better? Just curious! I've been a few times and may yet make that move, so I'm interested to hear others' reasons.

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HOLA4412

Argh! I try to edit posts and the original text disappears!? Is that my computer or this site?

OP, I directed you to some threads I'd made - about the despair more than one poster here feels, I'm sure! Where is it you're off to and to do what job (I just saw you mentioned New Zealand)?

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HOLA4415

I think one of the problems is the difference between the speed of human thought/perception and the speed of 'events'.

If you are watching house prices in your area like a hawk, it is very difficult indeed to perceive a change of 1/4% a month nominal (3% annual / 8% real annual ).

The authorities can either choose a rapid and disturbing change or they can try and smoothe things out over a very long time. They will always choose the latter if they can.

The credit bubble really started in earnest in 1971 and has had a couple of cyclical bears within that bull along the way. When did you notice that epoch making development? Will it take you another 40 years to look back and see 2007/2008 as something epoch making too or will it continue its path as in the crash of 1987?

I reckon the dot-com crash was the real epoch defining moment - demonstrating clearly that there would be no new, post-industrial productive economy of a meaningful enough scale to replace what had been lost. In fact, tech and the web actually makes it possible to do a lot more with a lot less employment - damaging even more of the old economy. Prior to that, although credit was a reality, FTB property prices were less than 3x income (taking into account flat prices). Wages had pretty much kept pace with inflation, being unemployed was pretty miserable and working at an OK job bought an OK lifestyle.

The West was unprepared to give up, and decided to pretend nothing had happened. Corporatism began to really take hold. Labour began taxing significantly more, paying these taxes to their core vote, and then forcing them to spend it all on maintaining big businesses and special interest groups that would otherwise have failed. The sheer variety of mechanisms by which they did this never ceases to astound me. Immigration was used to hide the disappearance of a whole section of the workforce who no longer found it even remotely economic to work. Meanwhile rising property prices and free credit were used to disguise wage deflation (forget the 2-5% increases in your own wages per year - check entry level salaries for your job - they're likely lower now than they were 10 years ago).

2007/8 was really the point at which it became harder to hide these arrangements. It'll be remembered as the point at which the democratic dreams of 50 years failed and returned us to a pseudo-feudal system.

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HOLA4416

Argh! I try to edit posts and the original text disappears!? Is that my computer or this site?

OP, I directed you to some threads I'd made - about the despair more than one poster here feels, I'm sure! Where is it you're off to and to do what job (I just saw you mentioned New Zealand)?

Looking to go to NZ with a really good lump sum of money and my service pension.

I work in defence acquisition now, trying to make sure we get a good deal (don't blame me for the many failures - the system doesn't listen to the recommendations of its staff).

There are a couple of opportunities for me in NZ in the defence area - doesn't pay well so it's a hard call.

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HOLA4417

The whole of the leveraged side of BTL is unsustainable with out ever increasing housing benefit payments ,which are now being lowered and are set to continue to do so ( thats why I`m keeping the faith),other than that it is going to be a Japanese type scenario ,unless there is a rise in interest rates :ph34r:

"Keeping the faith" - yes HPC is like a religion, we have to beleive in the greater good and that we will be rewarded at some point (future life in a nice house?). Meanwhile the sinners are laughing at us.

Some believe that religion is a tool to control the masses - what does this make us followers of HPC?

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HOLA4418

I believe HPC is now doing damage if you truly believe the message. The facts and analysis seem sound most times but if you bet your life and money on it, you could be waiting a long time. Best to only pop in every now and then and make no solid plans based on what's said.

NZ does seem to offer lower pay (I looked about 3 years ago) but if you go for it, best of luck!! I take it you're in sales?

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HOLA4419

There are a couple of opportunities for me in NZ in the defence area - doesn't pay well so it's a hard call.

...Money is not everything.....who needs lots of money when you have got a life.

Times will get harder for most of us, it is not what we earn it is how we spend what we earn, there will be lots of new learning, changes and challenges....change is not always bad, change forces new opportunities, for better or for worse depending on our attitudes and how we can deal with it. ;)

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