apom Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 Humphrys: Economy relying on consumer spending, fuelled by debt, and high house prices. Brown: I disagree with that. A leading political corespondant said that to Gordon Brown...? Really... this week has bought the innevitable to a peak.. Instead of the Chancellor managing the countys economy we have to wait for high interest rates and high taxes to bring on the innevitalbe conclusion.. gordon legacy will be the ruin of more people than smallpox, Damn him. WE pay him well, and his job was to not let this sort of thing happen. Prime minister? He should be in prison.. and how dare he be suprised by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhifoe Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 A leading political corespondant said that to Gordon Brown...? Really... this week has bought the innevitable to a peak.. It was on Today this morning. John Humphries gave him a right kicking and he had no answers. There's a link to it on the first page of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 John Humphries gave him a right kicking and he had no answers. How about a HPC special award for John Humphrys, he did Brown up like a kipper. Maybe we should all email the Today Programme congratulating them on a piece of first class journalism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mushroom Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 How about a HPC special award for John Humphrys, he did Brown up like a kipper. Maybe we should all email the Today Programme congratulating them on a piece of first class journalism. Careful, I suspect knives may be being sharpened. Too much appreciation of JH and his "retirement" to "spend more time with his family" might be brought forward. "Who will rid me of this troublesome .........?". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 He should be in prison.. and how dare he be suprised by this. If he was running any other company he would be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bear Goggles Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 My favourite bit was where JH said "Now the wheels are coming off the economy" GB reacted angrily. Obviously not so easy to spin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SarahBell Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 Gordon Brown today refused to rule out future tax rises after an influential economics report predicted a £10bn shortfall in Treasury revenues - the equivalent of 3p on income tax. http://politics.guardian.co.uk/economics/s...1591221,00.html Well thats the key bit the guardian have as a story, and lets face it... what will scare people most .. tax rises... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 (edited) An interesting part was when Gordon Brown was trying to spin BOE independence as a good thing that new Labour have done. He cited a scenario in the early 1990s when the BOE was begging the chancellor to raise rates, but the chancellor resisted. Dare I go as far to assume this might be preparing us for a rate rise? (With a little buck-passing on GB's part into the measure of course!) Edited October 13, 2005 by megaflop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 An interesting part was when Gordon Brown was trying to spin BOE independence as a good thing that new Labour have done. He cited a scenario in the early 1990s when the BOE was begging the chancellor to raise rates, but the chancellor resisted. Dare I go as far to assume this might be preparing us for a rate rise? (With a little buck-passing on GB's part into the measure of course!) I think GB is passing the buck to the BOE, rise or fall the decission lies with them as does the economic outlook, its all the BOEs fault if things go tits up, but it is down to gordon if things do well. Of course we all know the government still holds half the seats that decide the rise or fall, and the government did nothing to slow the House Boom.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 Dare I go as far to assume this might be preparing us for a rate rise? (With a little buck-passing on GB's part into the measure of course!) If rates don`t reach 5.25% by late spring I will be amazed. The debtors are unaware what is about to hit them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 I think GB is passing the buck to the BOE, rise or fall the decission lies with them as does the economic outlook, its all the BOEs fault if things go tits up, but it is down to gordon if things do well. Of course we all know the government still holds half the seats that decide the rise or fall, and the government did nothing to slow the House Boom.... Not so sure about the 'government did nothing to stop the house boom' bit though. The decision to raise rates in stages during the final part of the housing boom was a very different policy decision to those made by the Conservatives last time around, who did nothing. Although I don't know who really made this rate raising decision - was it truly independent BOE decision? Was it a government arm-twisting job? Who really knows? I think it's fair to say that the rate-raising left house prices about 20% overvalued on pricing fundamentals [wages + interest rates] alone, since vendors had long since priced in the halving of rates between '98 and '02. This caused the stagnation. For the record, I don't support New Labour. And I don't have the foggiest what's gonna happen next about rates! If anything I'm worried they might put them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 The OECD noted that the Treasury was relying on improved corporate profitability to meet its tax projections, warning that if these extra revenues from business failed to materialise then "additional measures" - tax rises or spending cuts - would be needed if the chancellor was to meet his fiscal requirements. hmmmm is this the businesses that are going bust on a daily basis?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuyingBear Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 He has also taken credit for Mervyn King's newly coined "Great Stability", but agreed that the business cycle still exists, then gave a little guilty chuckle when Humph mentioned "boom and bust is over". With regard to consumer sales falling, he stated categorically that when the final figures come out they will be higher than last year. And the year isn't even over yet.....something fishy there. He puts it down to a "series of services that people buy that are not included in purchases of food, or purchases of electronic goods". What has he managed to get shoe-horned in there to bulk it out? The ONS haven't rigged the figures yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messychopper Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 A must listen. Humphrys gives Brown a run for his money Scroll down to 8-10am Excellent, I have downloaded it and will enjoy listening to every min of this on my way to work. I already know what GB will be saying, I can already see his chins wobbling whilst he spews shitee, he has no cred, is a complete idiot and deserves to get toasted for totalbullshit policies that even my ferrets could tell you are ******. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichM Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 I reckon something must be up. When did you last hear GB on the radio? Or see him on TV (other than a party conference)? What's that? Somewhere I think I can hear a rather overweight women warming up for her "X-factor" audition, how peculiar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 Listening to this now. Like the interviewer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
underpressuretobuy Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 If rates don`t reach 5.25% by late spring I will be amazed. The debtors are unaware what is about to hit them. From what I can see political placemen on the MPC have tried to avoid rate rises at any cost. What makes you think that will change. I think they will hold the current position as long as possible, but what would force the BoE to change direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 From what I can see political placemen on the MPC have tried to avoid rate rises at any cost. What makes you think that will change. I think they will hold the current position as long as possible, but what would force the BoE to change direction? I believe global forces will leave the BoE with no choice. Scan the globe, and prices are stirring almost everywhere. In Thailand - where the Asian crisis first began in 1997 - inflation has suddenly jumped from under 3pc to 6pc. The September figure was 7.8pc in Vietnam, 9.1pc in Indonesia, and 10.3pc in Argentina. Diana Choyleva, global economist at Lombard Street Research, said the Federal Reserve had let the inflation genie out of the bottle. "We're in boom-bust territory, and we believe the Fed Fund rates will have to go to 5pc. They acted too late," she said. Donald Kohn, head of the Philadelphia Fed, warned the emergence of China and India as producers of cheap goods would have less effect in capping global inflationary pressures than many assumed. Central banks faced swift "punishment" from the markets if they failed to nip inflation in the bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 Listening to this now. Like the interviewer As I regular listner to the today programme I can say that J H is IMHO totally fed up with a stream of new labour ministers appearing on the programme; lying through their teeth; he is frequently like this. What is noticable is that the GB supporters are increasingly desperate for Blair to resign as early as next year, the reason: GB has lost control of the public finances, the economy is dependent upon ever increasing public spending and in 3-4 years time (in the middle of a HPC driven recession) people will realise that he has been a disaster as chancellor. At that point he can kiss goodbye to his chances of being PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 (edited) [snip] in 3-4 years time (in the middle of a HPC driven recession) people will realise that he has been a disaster as chancellor. At that point he can kiss goodbye to his chances of being PM. ... Which is exactly what Tony Blair wants. (If you believe the Daily Mail!) I am not anticipating Gordon Brown becoming Prime Minister any time soon. Edited October 13, 2005 by megaflop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 Can anyone explain 'the business cycle' please? I see a country full of millions of businesses, some big, some small, in lots of different sectors, at lots of different stages - some start ups, some growing, some big but finding things tough, some big and getting bigger etc etc. How is there a cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 Can anyone explain 'the business cycle' please? I see a country full of millions of businesses, some big, some small, in lots of different sectors, at lots of different stages - some start ups, some growing, some big but finding things tough, some big and getting bigger etc etc. How is there a cycle? Very good question. The business cycle may be nothing more than the expaning/contracting credit cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 ... Which is exactly what Tony Blair wants. (If you believe the Daily Mail!) I am not anticipating Gordon Brown becoming Prime Minister any time soon. I wonder what Tony Blair's view of the world is. Does he think everything is tickety-boo and he has been a successful Prime Minister? If he does (and I can't imagine why he would) he ought to quit while he thinks he is ahead. When the economy really hits the skids and unemployment rising can no longer be disguised and the tax rises (necessary to the increase in the oil price causing a global slowdown) are in place - he and Gordon Brown will be toast. Something these planks never learn is .... the tax paying public don't give a monkey's whose fault it is - when falling house prices make them feel poor and taxes are going up they will blame the government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 It was on Today this morning. John Humphries gave him a right kicking and he had no answers. There's a link to it on the first page of this thread. that and old merve this week.. the next ten years are not going to be the same as the last.. Did he meant that the effects of this may last a decade...? Christ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted October 13, 2005 Share Posted October 13, 2005 Very good question. The business cycle may be nothing more than the expaning/contracting credit cycle. Exactly as a boom gets into full swing many people see an opportunity to start up a new business. When the bust comes they are the ones who get hit first. I saw it first hand during the last recession when I lost 10% of my customer base. Nearly all had only been trading two to five years. My ex partner informs me he has lost some long time trading customers in the past few months and his feeling is it`s going to be a lot worse this time. The biggest shock for him was an IT company, well established trading the past fifteen years, with an average workforce of a hundred people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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