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Ologhai Jones

What Does The F T S E Think It's Doing?

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European banks get downgraded, unemployment numbers get worse and GDP gets downgraded - FTSE falls 0.5%
Someone in America buys a bagel - FTSE goes up 1%

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[quote name='Voice of Reason' timestamp='1318600319' post='3148596']
Mods delete this thread please.

We only have FTSE threads on HPC when the market is [u][i]down[/i][/u] 100+ points.
[/quote]
The markets have only stabilised because of the idea that a vast mountain of money is about to turn up in Europe and save all the people, the banks and govts from ruin. The only question left is, where is this money coming from? Govts plainly have none as they would not otherwise be borrowing every month like there was no tomorrow. Banks plainly have none since they are being highlighted as undercapitalised and stuffed with bad loans to other govts like, Greece, Portgual, Spain..even Italy. The IMF have admitted they are running short of funds.
The Chinese are beginning to realise they have lost the power to control their mirage of super growth. It is all a lie and well on the way to falling down.
SO JUST WHERE IS THIS MASSIVE EURO BAIL OUT FUND TO COME FROM? ANYONE KNOW? ............................Hmmmmm PRINT + DISTRIBUTE = INFLATION

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[quote name='plummet expert' timestamp='1318601868' post='3148631']
The markets have only stabilised because of the idea that a vast mountain of money is about to turn up in Europe and save all the people, the banks and govts from ruin. The only question left is, where is this money coming from? Govts plainly have none as they would not otherwise be borrowing every month like there was no tomorrow. Banks plainly have none since they are being highlighted as undercapitalised and stuffed with bad loans to other govts like, Greece, Portgual, Spain..even Italy. The IMF have admitted they are running short of funds.
The Chinese are beginning to realise they have lost the power to control their mirage of super growth. It is all a lie and well on the way to falling down.
SO JUST WHERE IS THIS MASSIVE EURO BAIL OUT FUND TO COME FROM? ANYONE KNOW? ............................Hmmmmm PRINT + DISTRIBUTE = INFLATION
[/quote]


I KNOW! PLEASE ! ME SIR !

*puts hand up*

[size="6"]It's coming from YOUR bank account.[/size]

..and your children's

..and their children's

by which time, EVERY SINGLE PERSON making these rather silly decisions will have DIED OF OLD AGE and it won't be their problem.

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[quote name='Ologhai Jones' timestamp='1318599867' post='3148589']
Is this a good time to 'take profits' (or minimise losses) before the world wakes up again and we have another plunge?
[/quote]

No, we're back to this paradigm:

[indent]Weak data - Fed eases, stocks rally.
Strong data - Strong economy, stocks rally.
Consensus data - Lower volatility, stocks rally.
Bank loses US$ 8 billion - Bad news all out of the way, stocks rally.
Oil price up - Good for energy producers, stocks rally.
Oil price down - Good for consumers, stocks rally.
US$ down - Good for exporters, stocks rally.
US$ up - Lower inflation, stocks rally.
Inflation up - Good for commodities and asset prices, stocks rally.
Inflation down - Fed eases, stocks rally.
Climate change - Soft commodities up, stocks rally.
World ends - Good for disaster recovery companies, stocks rally. (from prudent bear)[/indent]

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The working man gets home, watches the BBC news, FTSE up. 'Nothing to worry about'

The FTSE figure on the news is some kind of be all benchmark of the financial state of the UK/World to many people I know.

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Last time there was QE it leaked out into the stockmarket. You didn't think banks were going to lend it for anything constructive, did you?
This time is no different, and also there is anticipation of massive European QE to save the PIIGS.

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[quote name='plummet expert' timestamp='1318601868' post='3148631']
The markets have only stabilised because of the idea that a vast mountain of money is about to turn up in Europe and save all the people, the banks and govts from ruin. The only question left is, where is this money coming from? Govts plainly have none as they would not otherwise be borrowing every month like there was no tomorrow. Banks plainly have none since they are being highlighted as undercapitalised and stuffed with bad loans to other govts like, Greece, Portgual, Spain..even Italy. The IMF have admitted they are running short of funds.
The Chinese are beginning to realise they have lost the power to control their mirage of super growth. It is all a lie and well on the way to falling down.
SO JUST WHERE IS THIS MASSIVE EURO BAIL OUT FUND TO COME FROM? ANYONE KNOW? ............................Hmmmmm PRINT + DISTRIBUTE = INFLATION
[/quote]

Okay, if that's the case, how do you explain the strength of the Euro during the last fortnight?

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Why does this happen? Let's get the ball rolling then...

[url="http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/10/companies-actionaid-tax"]link[/url]
[quote]98 of FTSE 100 companies use tax havens

New research by ActionAid uncovers [color="#FF0000"][size="4"]8,492[/size][/color] overseas subsidiary companies.

Every single company on the London Stock Exchange, bar two, uses round-the-world tax havens, often costing developing countries far more than they receive annually in aid, a report by ActionAid has revealed.

Ninety-eight per cent of the country's biggest businesses are afforded widespread financial secrecy and tax levies by holding jurisdictions in 8,492 companies outside of the UK. This makes up a quarter of the FTSE 100's total 34,000 subsidiaries.

The four big banks (Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and RBS) alone have 1,649 firms located in tax havens.

ActionAid's research is based on previously undisclosed data. FTSE companies are required by law to disclosed information on their subsidiary businesses, however, ActionAid's analysis found that over half "were not complying with this legal obligation". The child sponsorship chairty submitted complaints to Companies House, thereby forcing Stock Exchange businesses to re-file their annual returns.

A graphic map of the FTSE 100 tax havens can be found on the ActionAid website, [url="http://www.actionaid.org.uk/103031/ftse_100_tax_haven_tracker.html"]here[/url].

[/quote]

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[quote name='EvilEdna' timestamp='1318605592' post='3148693']
Okay, if that's the case, how do you explain the strength of the Euro during the last fortnight?
[/quote]
I would guess, the bailout being passed is a sign that things aren't as desperate as the market thought.

That, and randomness.

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[quote name='bobthe~' timestamp='1318606266' post='3148707']
I would guess, the bailout being passed is a sign that things aren't as desperate as the market thought.

That, and randomness.
[/quote]

I think the currency market is expecting that the Euro rescue fund won't be funny money but instead Euro bonds backed by all the Euro nations, or something similar. Otherwise surely the Euro would plummet at the prospect of massive printing?

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[quote name='Voice of Reason' timestamp='1318600319' post='3148596']
Mods delete this thread please.

We only have FTSE threads on HPC when the market is [u][i]down[/i][/u] 100+ points.
[/quote]

I'ts very volatile at the moment, as I and others have pointed out. This is a bad thing for FTSE growth.

During the debt times the FTSE never strayed out of 2.5% moves, in other words it was very very stable and it went up
but that's not the point, it was stable in the direction it moved.

Now It has gone 10% up from the low in 10 days, In July it was over 6000 and fell from that.

The volatility is a bad thing for investors, for gamblers it's just about ok, but still not good.

That's around 350% gains per annum at it's current rate. Edited by northwestsmith2

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[quote name='northwestsmith2' timestamp='1318606747' post='3148714']


That's around 350% gains per annum at it's current rate.
[/quote]



Therein lies the rub.

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[quote name='bobthe~' timestamp='1318606266' post='3148707']
I would guess, the bailout being passed is a sign that things aren't as desperate as the market thought.

That, and randomness.
[/quote]

My personal [s]asshole[/s] opinion is that markets are currently being driven much more by sentiment than fundamentals. Mainly because I don't think anyone has the slightest clue what the actual fundamentals are any more.

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[url="http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Some-Euro-Countries-Bankrupt-skynews-202739555.html;_ylt=Avs0DasRbHfJ51TKJIxnd_rSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4M3ZhOGdiBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNzb21lZXVyb2NvdW4-?x=0"]Some Euro Countries Bankrupt, King Warns[/url]

That's got to be worth another 300 points on the FTSE taking us back to around 5700 - bulls will just see any dip on such trivial news as a great buying opportunity!

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[quote name='Catflap' timestamp='1319024996' post='3153096']
[url="http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Some-Euro-Countries-Bankrupt-skynews-202739555.html;_ylt=Avs0DasRbHfJ51TKJIxnd_rSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4M3ZhOGdiBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNzb21lZXVyb2NvdW4-?x=0"]Some Euro Countries Bankrupt, King Warns[/url]

That's got to be worth another 300 points on the FTSE taking us back to around 5700 - bulls will just see any dip on such trivial news as a great buying opportunity!
[/quote]



I like the way in the article he offers 'respite' to families next year when certain items drop out.

Errr....is it going to be cheaper then?

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How the feck can you buy into this market?

King, who presumably has access to information that the likes of you and I will never be privy to, comes out and says that some EU countries are bust - not just one, but 'some' - and the following morning the FTSE carries on upwards.

Is it an organised pump and dump as right_freds_dead says, is it short buying? What?

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[quote name='The Masked Tulip' timestamp='1319025616' post='3153110']
How the feck can you buy into this market?

King, who presumably has access to information that the likes of you and I will never be privy to, comes out and says that some EU countries are bust - not just one, but 'some' - and the following morning the FTSE carries on upwards.

Is it an organised pump and dump as right_freds_dead says, is it short buying? What?
[/quote]

It was short covering but it seems to have had a 'follow-thru-day' where ordinary punters buy in pushing up volumes.


[url="http://feedproxy.google.com/%7Er/QuantifiableEdges/%7E3/F2ruZ41DWc8/when-ftds-occur-in-conjunction-with-20.html"]http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/QuantifiableEdges/~3/F2ruZ41DWc8/when-ftds-occur-in-conjunction-with-20.html[/url]

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[size="3"][/size][b]S&P sees downgrade blitz in EMU recession, threatening crisis strategy[/b]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8839972/SandP-sees-downgrade-blitz-in-EMU-recession-threatening-crisis-strategy.html

Well that bit of stinking news took the FTSE up by over 100 points today as the bulls bought the dip - just need a few bank failures and a downgrade for the UK and we'll be back at 6000 at this rate.

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[quote name='Catflap' timestamp='1319238299' post='3155931']
[b]S&P sees downgrade blitz in EMU recession, threatening crisis strategy[/b]

[url="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8839972/SandP-sees-downgrade-blitz-in-EMU-recession-threatening-crisis-strategy.html"]http://www.telegraph...s-strategy.html[/url]

Well that bit of stinking news took the FTSE up by over 100 points today as the bulls bought the dip - just need a few bank failures and a downgrade for the UK and we'll be back at 6000 at this rate.
[/quote]

The 'why' can drive you mad. It is what it is. Frustration also suggests emotional attachment to a particular outcome.

In trading terms it may be best looking at what it is, rather than the why.

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[quote name='Catflap' timestamp='1319238299' post='3155931']
[size="3"][/size][b]S&P sees downgrade blitz in EMU recession, threatening crisis strategy[/b]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8839972/SandP-sees-downgrade-blitz-in-EMU-recession-threatening-crisis-strategy.html

Well that bit of stinking news took the FTSE up by over 100 points today as the bulls bought the dip - just need a few bank failures and a downgrade for the UK and we'll be back at 6000 at this rate.
[/quote]

It seems bizarre the bad headlines alongside the green market figures.

What are we looking at?

1) Insiders that know something, buying before good news is released
2) People believing the bad news so much they are exiting cash to buy shares knowing they might dip initially but it's better than having money in the bank
3) ?

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[quote name='Redhat Sly' timestamp='1319291064' post='3156227']
It seems bizarre the bad headlines alongside the green market figures.

[b]What are we looking at?[/b]

1) Insiders that know something, buying before good news is released
2) People believing the bad news so much they are exiting cash to buy shares knowing they might dip initially but it's better than having money in the bank
3) ?
[/quote]

Financial media set up to separate you from your cash by encouraging you to emotially make the wrong decisions at the wrong time.

Doesn't matter whether it's houses, equities, bonds or gold.

Read it for entertainment but not for investment/trading.

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