nohpc

Stocks And Shares Bull Market

66 posts in this topic

About to begin it's next leg up.

I like to follow Nadeem Walayat of marketoracle's inflation megatrend theory and have accumulated heavily during the recent downturn (just about breaking even on what I bought today).

It will be an extremely bumpy rollercoaster of a ride but this has been a bull market correction in my opinion.

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[quote name='nohpc' timestamp='1316096660' post='3119002']
About to begin it's next leg up.

I like to follow Nadeem Walayat of marketoracle's inflation megatrend theory and have accumulated heavily during the recent downturn (just about breaking even on what I bought today).

It will be an extremely bumpy rollercoaster of a ride but this has been a bull market correction in my opinion.
[/quote]


After last months bum raping I piled in heavily and am now about 5% up plus dividends which are flowing in steadily

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[quote name='Kurt Barlow' timestamp='1316098666' post='3119038']
After last months bum raping I piled in heavily and am now about 5% up plus dividends which are flowing in steadily
[/quote]

Which stock did you buy last month which has already paid you a dividend?

Or have I misunderstood?

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Pumping in liquidity because 'household name' banks would otherwise go bust = great time to get into shares. It's not just investment banking that is a casino, but the whole stock market.

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[quote name='Voice of Reason' timestamp='1316101074' post='3119083']
Which stock did you buy last month which has already paid you a dividend?

Or have I misunderstood?
[/quote]

I have been buying since February but purchased a large bundle last month.

At present

Expenditure including SD & trade costs £37107

Total value of holding at mid point £38,621

Dividends to date for 2011 £855

I reckon that leaves me about 6.4% up at the end of today

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[b]ALBERT EDWARDS ISSUES WARNING: A S&P 500 'KILLER WAVE' Is Forming[/b]

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/killer-wave-formation-sp-500-2011-9#ixzz1Y2RpdDED

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[quote name='Kurt Barlow' timestamp='1316101485' post='3119089']
I have been buying since February but purchased a large bundle last month.

At present

Expenditure including SD & trade costs £37107

Total value of holding at mid point £38,621

Dividends to date for 2011 £855

I reckon that leaves me about 6.4% up at the end of today
[/quote]
it's kinda tacky to use absolute nos. %s please in future.

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I'm piling into cleaning my neighbours homes/doing old people favours, heavy lifting etc. (for tea, biscuits, sandwiches, bit o meat and tatty pie, and beer), first class stamps and job application sites.

Ladder, aldi value washin up liquid, watter and bucket soon, the recovery is ON!

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[quote name='bulltraderpt' timestamp='1316103498' post='3119119']
I soooooooooooooooo hope he's right. :)
[/quote]

me too. It makes me salivate to think about picking up shares at 40% of todays prices. Of course you will need to ignore the background market panic that will be accompanied by such a drop if you want to make money.

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[quote name='nohpc' timestamp='1316096660' post='3119002']
About to begin it's next leg up.

I like to follow Nadeem Walayat of marketoracle's inflation megatrend theory and have accumulated heavily during the recent downturn (just about breaking even on what I bought today).

It will be an extremely bumpy rollercoaster of a ride but this has been a bull market correction in my opinion.
[/quote]
He is a clever man, but he could be wrong this time. The argument is about inflation or deflation and in fact there is both. Unless the sovereign debt problems are actually satisfactorily resolved he will be calling a return to a rising stock market too early in my view. It's all on a knife edge and I beleive there is more down time to do yet. The 30's will tell you that and the big second leg down has not yet happened this time - on that basis we are on the shoulders of the head and shoulders pattern, riding for a much steeper fall. Back then it took 20 years to recover (but we'll accept there was a WW11 in there) .

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It will only be a bull run because of the next round of printing money. When that stops, shares will slump again.

Meanwhile, we all get poorer, because the pound gets trashed.

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[quote name='bulltraderpt' timestamp='1316113930' post='3119237']
That helped in the end though in a perverse kind of way didn't it.
[/quote]

Only after the war, when the ritualised workforce manned the factories!

They had a work ethic bred into them. I'm not sure war is the best way to create a work ethic though.

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[quote name='plummet expert' timestamp='1316113820' post='3119235']
He is a clever man, but he could be wrong this time. The argument is about inflation or deflation and in fact there is both. Unless the sovereign debt problems are actually satisfactorily resolved he will be calling a return to a rising stock market too early in my view. It's all on a knife edge and I beleive there is more down time to do yet. The 30's will tell you that and the big second leg down has not yet happened this time - on that basis we are on the shoulders of the head and shoulders pattern, riding for a much steeper fall. Back then it took 20 years to recover (but we'll accept there was a WW11 in there) .
[/quote]

Well, there are a couple of 'gold standards' creating their own depressions...the Eurozone and the Yuan-Dollar peg.

A large body of German exports goes to countries that Germany is busily creating a depression in. I suspect part of America's problem in getting traction out of this thing is China's position relative to them so that any increase in business is felt by the Chinese rather than domestically.


These are the real issues, not the immediate issue of potential sovereign and bank default. It is the screw of reduced gdp, reduced activity and demand, reduced trade that unless dealt with will carry on regardless.

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[quote name='Davetolbooth' timestamp='1316116162' post='3119278']
It will only be a bull run because of the next round of printing money. When that stops, shares will slump again.

Meanwhile, we all get poorer, because the pound gets trashed.
[/quote]

In fact it's doing crap over the last [url="http://www.google.com//finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1316117868957&chddm=91146&q=CURRENCY:GBPUSD&ntsp=0"]month[/url]

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Only on HPC can folks state the MASIF gains they're getting with no losses in sight lol.
Will I hell plunge into more shares, too risky - from now on trackers only. I see gold's back down now, if it falls below $1700, could be a good time to buy back in.

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[quote name='guitarman001' timestamp='1316118528' post='3119306']
Only on HPC can folks state the MASIF gains they're getting with no losses in sight lol.
Will I hell plunge into more shares, too risky - from now on trackers only. I see gold's back down now, if it falls below $1700, could be a good time to buy back in.
[/quote]

Whether £1=100 or not it's always good to get on with your neighbours...

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[quote name='guitarman001' timestamp='1316118528' post='3119306']
Only on HPC can folks state the MASIF gains they're getting with no losses in sight lol.
Will I hell plunge into more shares, too risky - from now on trackers only. I see gold's back down now, if it falls below $1700, could be a good time to buy back in.
[/quote]

Whether £1=100 or not it's always good to get on with your neighbours...

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Just tired of hearing BS about making the right call and getting 200% back on stellar investments (even though they don't need it as they're 25 t/o with an income of £150k+). Really starting to take everything on here with a very large pinch of salt lol.. Edited by guitarman001

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The stock market goes up on news of another proven failure of the free market. We might as well move to the point where central banks/governments simply set share prices by decree.

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[quote name='plummet expert' timestamp='1316113820' post='3119235']
He is a clever man, but he could be wrong this time. The argument is about inflation or deflation and in fact there is both. Unless the sovereign debt problems are actually satisfactorily resolved he will be calling a return to a rising stock market too early in my view. It's all on a knife edge and I beleive there is more down time to do yet. The 30's will tell you that and the big second leg down has not yet happened this time - on that basis we are on the shoulders of the head and shoulders pattern, riding for a much steeper fall. Back then it took 20 years to recover (but we'll accept there was a WW11 in there) .
[/quote]

His reply to that point is that the market was a lot lower then than now, so the trend either from the '29 peak, or from the '30s bottom, was strongly up. Very useful is you have a 90 year investment horizon.

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[quote name='guitarman001' timestamp='1316119000' post='3119319']
Just tired of hearing BS about making the right call and getting 200% back on stellar investments (even though they don't need it as they're 25 t/o with an income of £150k+). Really starting to take everything on here with a very large pinch of salt lol..
[/quote]

I don't know where anybody mentioned achieveing stellar investment returns on this thread.

Some of my paper losses are quite stunning at the moment.

I buy very few individual shares and prefer ETFs to track sectors/countries.

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[quote name='Kurt Barlow' timestamp='1316101485' post='3119089']
I reckon that leaves me about 6.4% up at the end of today
[/quote]

So you just about managed to beat inflation by a small margin... ( before taxes...)

and of course it's all theoretical until you actually sell. Edited by awake_eagle

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It was coming.
Amazing losses on my end, too.

[quote name='newbie' timestamp='1316119488' post='3119326']
The stock market goes up on news of another proven failure of the free market. We might as well move to the point where central banks/governments simply set share prices by decree.
[/quote]

+1

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[quote name='newbie' timestamp='1316119488' post='3119326']
The stock market goes up on news of another proven failure of the free market. We might as well move to the point where central banks/governments simply set share prices by decree.
[/quote]

On HPC the market isnt allowed to go up by decree it seems, its about 15% down from a couple of months ago and has gone precisely nowhere the last month+. Its impossible for it to go up or down in a straight line without opposite moves, thats its nature

Daily, weekly moves are really just white noise, maybe its wiser to look at the stockmarket as its own entity, it goes where it wants based on interactions of millions of people at any moment in time, the stock market fundamentally drives the news (by creating the mood) rather than the other way round, it moves and we simply then look for a reason or news as to why its done what its done even if that news is actually irrelevant, its a nice crutch to have, Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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