FUKUSHIMA earthquake and tsunami thread and aftermath

[fluffy666]

You're fag-packet calculation assumes dilution. Now look at REAL experimental data to see what happens to the Fukushima ocean releases.

My calculation assumed everything staying in the top 10 meters. And by 'everything' I assumes the dissolving of the entire set of nuclear material.

Your experimental data suggests that I was pessimistic by at least 2 orders of magnitude. In face, if we look at reality, I also deliberately overestimated the release by 3-4 orders of magnitude for Cs-137, and by millions for any other long lived product.

[1929crash]

My calculation assumed everything staying in the top 10 meters. And by 'everything' I assumes the dissolving of the entire set of nuclear material.

Your experimental data suggests that I was pessimistic by at least 2 orders of magnitude. In face, if we look at reality, I also deliberately overestimated the release by 3-4 orders of magnitude for Cs-137, and by millions for any other long lived product.

You are still ignoring the Chernobyl dead/dying zone revealed by Dr Mousseau.

[fluffy666]

You are still ignoring the Chernobyl dead/dying zone revealed by Dr Mousseau.

Umm, no, I read it and responded to it. And 'area of reduced biodiversity' is not 'A dead zone'.

It would perhaps be more instructive to tell us exactly what area has been affected to a biologically-noticeable degree.

And do try to bear in mind that I don't regard nuclear power or radiation generally as harmless, just not as bad as - to take a couple of examples - burning coal, or an absence of modern energy. As ever, of course, the best source of energy is 'Magic Energy Faeries' - cheap, unlimited and non-polluting. Everything looks bed compared to them.

[1929crash]

Umm, no, I read it and responded to it. And 'area of reduced biodiversity' is not 'A dead zone'.

.

Possibly, but I suspect that this will be the end point of the evolutionary/devolutionary process under the radioactive environment.

[happy_renting]

CS Lewis was himself attacked for using arguments shallower than a week-old puddle in the Sahara.

And I don't 'poo-poo' research. I tend to read it; the problem is that I understand the concepts of 'relative risk' and 'cost-benefit analysis'.

For instance, you can calculate for yourself what would happen to background radiation in the Pacific if all the radioactive material at the fukushima was dissolved in the top 10m of the North Pacific. Indeed, I would invite you to do this.. here's my working.

There was about 1800 Tonnes of nuclear fuel/ spent fuel on-site, including reactor core material.

Assuming it was enriched to 95%, then perhaps 94% of that fuel will still be U-238. Given that we are dissolving this in the top 10m of the ocean, this goes:

Concentration: 3mg/m3, = 30mg per 1m2 , 10 meter deep patch. Or 30kg/km2, 30 tonnes per 1000 km2. So we could double the concentration of Uranium over 60,000 square kilometers of ocean, assuming it's just the top 10m. Bottom line: You are not going to worry about this.

Of the remainder, about 55 Tonnes would be Fission products and perhaps 40 tonnes U-235, Pu239, Pu-240. U-235 would disperse with the U-238. Roughly speaking, the Plutonium is 200,000 times more radioactive than natural Uranium, so our 20 tonnes - restricted to the top 10m of ocean - would be equivalent to 4 million tonnes of natural uranium - 120 million square kilometers. Which is comparable to the area of the Pacific ocean - although we are her comparing to natural uranium levels which are extremely low.

Which leaves our other products (Cs and Sr, half life ~30 years)

My calculations put Cs-137 as being 40 million times more active than Potassium-40. Now, according to this scheme, 150km2 of 10m-deep ocean has 55 tonnes of K-40. so.. 6 billion square kilometers required. So we would be seeing more Cs-137 activity than K-40 (although neither would be remotely dangerous).

Now - these calculations assume a worst-than-worst-possible case. On the more reasonable assumption that perhaps a tenth of the material is dissolved (still a very high amount) and it's dispersed in the top 100m, you simply would not notice.

So.. where's the elephant?

Yours is a very simplistic analysis. Take, for example, the highlighted text. Plutonium cannot simply be equated to some mass of uranium based purely on their relative radioactivity. Plutonium is also very toxic, and you completely ignore how plutonium might be accumulated and concentrated in the food chain.

[fluffy666]

Yours is a very simplistic analysis. Take, for example, the highlighted text. Plutonium cannot simply be equated to some mass of uranium based purely on their relative radioactivity. Plutonium is also very toxic, and you completely ignore how plutonium might be accumulated and concentrated in the food chain.

Well, at least it IS an analysis. Most of the coverage seems to avoid any actual numbers as much as possible.

As far as your criticism goes, I'd point you to 2 starting assumptions:

1) I'm taking the entire quantity of fuel on-site as being dissolved. This is to counter scaremongering about such a quantity. A more realistic estimate - especially of the Uranium and Plutonium - would be much less than 1% being dispersed even in the worst case.

2) I'm then concentrating this in the to 10m of the Pacific, which is, again an extremely unfavorable estimate. We generally think of the top ~100m of the oceans as being well-mixed.

So my estimates are 'conceding' at least 4 orders of magnitude to the scaremongers to start with, and still don't find much to worry about.

(Meanwhile, a single coal mining accident has just killed far more people than Fukushima, I'm sure there will now be a 441 page thread on the subject..)

[1929crash]

Well, at least it IS an analysis. Most of the coverage seems to avoid any actual numbers as much as possible.

As far as your criticism goes, I'd point you to 2 starting assumptions:

1) I'm taking the entire quantity of fuel on-site as being dissolved. This is to counter scaremongering about such a quantity. A more realistic estimate - especially of the Uranium and Plutonium - would be much less than 1% being dispersed even in the worst case.

2) I'm then concentrating this in the to 10m of the Pacific, which is, again an extremely unfavorable estimate. We generally think of the top ~100m of the oceans as being well-mixed.

So my estimates are 'conceding' at least 4 orders of magnitude to the scaremongers to start with, and still don't find much to worry about.

(Meanwhile, a single coal mining accident has just killed far more people than Fukushima, I'm sure there will now be a 441 page thread on the subject..)

Death through radiation exposure is seldom instant and dramatic, as with the tragic case of the Turkish coalminers.

And death is often attributed to other causes, such as cancer, heart attacks and strokes. In fact there are well over 1000 specific illnesses linked to or caued by radiation.

[Tankus]

Suggesting even distribution as a dilution throughout a given maximum volume is utterly fatuous anyway and as 'bout as divorced from reality as you can get !

Its like drawing safty and evacuation zones in perfect bulls eye circles .

Edited May 16, 2014 by Tankus

[interestrateripoff]

Fukushima pumps out groundwater

Tepco hails 'major milestone' in cleanup operation three years after earthquake and tsunami damaged reactors at nuclear plant

[interestrateripoff]

Japan Begins Purposely Dumping 100s Of Tons Of Radioactive Water From Fukushima Into The Pacific

How do you get rid of hundreds of tons of highly radioactive water? You dump it into the Pacific Ocean of course! In Japan, the Tokyo Electric Power Co. has made the “painful decision” to begin purposely dumping massive amounts of radioactive water currently being stored at the destroyed Fukushima nuclear facility directly into the Pacific. This is being done even though water radiation levels near Fukushima spiked to a brand new all-time record high just a few days ago.

[interestrateripoff]

Japan Sounds Emergency Warning As "Once In Decades" Supertyphoon Neoguri Approaches

Hurricane Arthur may have been, pardon us Jamie Dimon, a "tempest in a teapot" fizzling quietly in the Atlantic, but halfway around the world, a far greater storm is currently picking up speed and barreling toward Japan. As Reuters reports, Typhoon Neoguri, described as a "once in decades storm" is set to rake the Okinawa island chain with heavy rain and powerful winds. Typhoon Neoguri was already gusting at more than 250 km an hour (150 mph) and may pick up still more power as it moves northwest, growing into an "extremely intense" storm by Tuesday, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said. "In these regions, there is a chance of the kinds of storms, high seas, storm surges and heavy rains that you've never experienced before," a JMA official told a news conference. "This is an extraordinary situation, where a grave danger is approaching."

[interestrateripoff]

6.8 Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Near Fukushima, Tsunami Warning Issued

Moments ago, at 4:22am local time, a major 6.8 magnitude quake struck eastern Japan, off the Fukushima coast.

FLASH:M6.8 QUAKE JOLTS OFF FUKUSHIMA, JAPAN, TSUNAMI ALERT

EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING ISSUED FOR JAPAN, OFF FUKUSHIMA:JMA

EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING ISSUED FOR JAPAN, OFF FUKUSHIMA:JMA

TSUNAMI WARNING ISSUED AFTER JAPAN QUAKE: AP

[interestrateripoff]

Safety doubts on Fukushima ice wall

Frozen barrier, costing £185m, being built around Fukushima Daiichi's four damaged reactors to contain irradiated water

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-06/three-years-later-japan-finally-tells-truth-more-fuel-melted-fukushima

After years of obfuscation and, simply put, lies; TEPCO has admitted in a new report that more nuclear fuel had melted at the Fukushima nuclear reactor than previously stated. While this is dreadful news, it gets worse, as the report further confirms that despite Abe's promises and TEPCO's state-funded efforts to build ice-walls, it may miss an important deadline binding it to clean radioactive water stored inside the Fukushima nuclear plant. Bloomberg reports officials commenting "we are doing everything we can do," but it appears, that is not enough as tens of thousands of tons of toxic water are expected to remain at the site by the imposed deadline.

As NHK reports, the meltdown was far more significant that originally publicly stated...

Tepco finds meltdown of the fuel at Fukushima Dai-Ichi No. 3 nuclear reactor began at about 5am on March 13, 2011,

five hours earlier than co. previously estimated,

NHK reports, citing co.’s latest findings.

Most of the fuel may have melted through the base of the reactor into the containment vessel by 6am the next day

: NHK

And now we find that TEPCO's clean-up plans are failing...

TEPCO's attempt at removing toxic cancer-causing substances from the reactor's waters may exceed the stated deadline.

Earlier, TEPCO's president pledged to terminate the filtering process by the end of March 2015.

The country’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga confirmed the deadline to journalists.

The official, though, did not clarify the penalties TEPCO face if it failed to meet the target date.

The isotope Strontium-90 is believed to cause cancerous diseases. It has a half-life of about 30 years and can be deposited in fish bones. The fear of the radioactive substance's presence in the water has already become the reason for

South Korea’s ban on seafood imports from Japan.

As of July 29, the site had more than 370,000 tons of water contaminated with radiation, with its levels rising at a rate of 400 tons a day.

The measures taken by TEPCO included the launch of the so-called ALPS filtration system, capable of cleaning about 500 tons of water daily. The system is set to be expanded to process more than 600 tons a day additionally starting September. Also, another system to filter about 425 tons daily is to be launched in October.

However, even with the use of additional facilities, such as the U.S.-based Kurion Corporation’s truck-mounted filtration system, Bloomberg expects

tens of thousands of tons of toxic water to remain at the site by the imposed deadline.

Familiar with Bloomberg’s data, TEPCO's spokesperson has said:

"We are doing everything we can do."

3 years on.

[interestrateripoff]

TEPCO Prepares Countermeasures As Typhoon Tidal Waves Approach Fukushima

UPDATE: *JMA ISSUES TORNADO WARNINGS IN TOKYO AREA, IZU ISLANDS, AS TYPHOON PHANFONE MAKES LANDFALL AT JAPAN'S SHIZUOKA, JMA SAYS

With 1 US airman dead and 2 missing, Super Typhoon Phanfone has already wreaked havoc in its doom-strewn approach of Japan, but as RIA reports, the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), has revealed that the approaching typhoon could hit the damaged, decommissioned 40-year old nuclear power facility at Fukushima. Rather stunningly, The Japan Times reports tidal waves from the storm are likely to reach a maximum height of 26.3 meters or more (compared to the 2011 tsunami which reached a height of 15.5 meters when it hit the plant). Due to the expected 'mingling' of contaminated and Typhoon-driven ocean water, TEPCO admits 100 trillion becquerels of cesium to escape; Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) plans to verify the accuracy of TEPCO's estimate and the "appropriateness" of countermeasures being taken.

[interestrateripoff]

Fukushima Children Thyroid Cancer Rate Continues To Rise

Fukushima prefecture has been conducting regular checkups of over 360,000 people who were in Fukushima in March 2011 and were age 18 or under when the nuclear crisis struck. As WSJ reported in August, a study by researchers in Fukushima prefecture found 57 minors in the prefecture have been diagnosed with thyroid cancer so far and another 46 are showing symptoms that suggest they may also have the disease. Today, as The Japan Times reports, four more children are suspected of suffering from thyroid cancer in the latest survey bringing the total to 107 out of 385,000 now surveyed. This is dramatically higher than the normal "between 5 to 11 cases per million people," that Okayama University professor Toshihide Tsuda cites for national statistics between 1975 and 2008.

[rollover]

Fresh nuclear leak detected at Fukushima plant

Sensors at the Fukushima nuclear plant have detected a fresh leak of highly radioactive water to the sea, the plant's operator announced Sunday, highlighting difficulties in decommissioning the crippled plant. Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) said the sensors, which were rigged to a gutter that pours rain and ground water at the Fukushima Daiichi plant to a nearby bay, detected contamination levels up to 70 times greater than the already-high radioactive status seen at the plant campus.

[interestrateripoff]

Fukushima's Nuclear Reactor Fuel Is "Missing"

In the same week as Japan unveils its Pacific-Rim-esque anti-tsunami wall public works project, and Japanese government auditors say the operator of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant has wasted more than a third of the 190 billion yen ($1.6 billion) in taxpayer money allocated for cleaning up the plant after it was destroyed by a March 2011 earthquake and tsunami; Science Journal reports, Fukushima won't be truly safe until engineers can remove the reactors' nuclear fuel. But first, they have to find it... And so, in February of this year two muon detectors were installed outside the Fukushima Daiichi unit-1 ruins at reactor vessel height for the purpose of finding that ‘missing’ reactor fuel.

[interestrateripoff]

Fukushima May Be At Risk Of Imminent "Hydrogen Explosion"

Containers holding contaminated water at the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant are at risk of hydrogen explosions, The Telegraph reports, with 10% of them found to be leaking. The discovery was reported to the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), which raised concerns surrounding the potential hazards of accumulated hydrogen building up in the containers warning that "a spark caused by static electricity could cause a container to explode." TEPCO officials reassuringly note that they "think the possibility of an occurrence of hydrogen explosion from these storage facilities is extremely low, since there is no fire origin, or anything that generates static electricity nearby," but this is the same company that a recent IAEA report blasted for "failing to implement adequate safeguards at Fukushima – despite being aware of the tsunami risk."

[Errol]

What's Really Going On At Fukushima?

Fukushima will likely go down in history as the biggest cover-up of the 21st Century. Governments and corporations are not leveling with citizens about the risks and dangers; similarly, truth itself, as an ethical standard, is at risk of going to shambles as the glue that holds together the trust and belief in society’s institutions. Ultimately, this is an example of how societies fail.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-24/whats-really-going-fukushima

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-23/fallout-fukushima-summed-1-disturbing-image

If this is what is happening to a daisy now... good luck to the Olympic athletes in 5 years...

Four years after the disastrous 2011 earthquake, subsequent tsunami, and Fukushima nuclear meltdown, this small patch of deformed daisies suggests all is not well no matter what Abe tells the world...

[Stay Beautiful]

Very Dali

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-08/be-afraid-japan-about-do-something-thats-never-been-done

When the words "mothballed", "nuclear", and "never been done before" are seen together with Japan in a sentence, the world should be paying attention...

As TEPCO officials face criminal charges over the lack of preparedness with regard Fukushima, and The IAEA Report assigns considerable blame to the Japanese culture of "over-confidence & complacency," Bloomberg reports,

Japan is about to do something that’s never been done before: Restart a fleet of mothballed nuclear reactors.

The first reactor to meet new safety standards could come online as early as next week. Japan is reviving its nuclear industry four years after all its plants were shut for safety checks following the earthquake and tsunami that wrecked the Fukushima Dai-Ichi station north of Tokyo, causing radiation leaks that forced the evacuation of 160,000 people.

Mothballed reactors have been turned back on in other parts of the world, though not on this scale

-- 25 of Japan’s 43 reactors have applied for restart permits. One lesson learned elsewhere is that the process rarely goes smoothly. Of 14 reactors that resumed operations after four years offline, all had emergency shutdowns and technical failures, according to data from the World Nuclear Association, an industry group.

“If reactors have been offline for a long time, there can be issues with long-dormant equipment and with ‘rusty’ operators,”

Allison Macfarlane, a former chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said by e-mail.

In case you are not worried enough yet...

As problems can arise with long-dormant reactors, the NRA “should be testing all the equipment as well as the operator beforehand in preparation,”

Macfarlane of the U.S. said by e-mail. Although the NRA “is a new agency, many of the staff there have long experience in nuclear issues,” she said.

Kyushu Electric has performed regular checks since the reactor was shut to ensure it restarts and operates safely, said a company spokesman, who asked not to be identified because of company policy.

“If a car isn’t used for a while, and you suddenly use it, then there is usually a problem. There is definitely this type of worry with Sendai,”

said Ken Nakajima, a professor at Kyoto University Research Reactor Institute. “Kyushu Electric is probably thinking about this as well and preparing for it.”

It's not the first time a nation has tried this..

Fingers crossed time....

[interestrateripoff]

Fuku-zilla? Japan's TEPCO Discovers "Living Creature" Inside Nuclear Reactor

After sending robots into the Fukushima nuclear reactor (and seeing them mysteriously die), perhaps this is the reason why Japanese officials have decided to re-start the building of a huge ice-wall for 'containment'. As Fukushima Diary reports, TEPCO’s camera caught a possible aquatic living creature in retained coolant water of Reactor 3.

[interestrateripoff]

Newly-Completed Fukushima 'Containment' Wall Already "Slightly Leaning"

Just weeks after re-starting the building of a giant ice-wall to contain groundwater leaking from the Fukushima nuclear plant, TEPCO has been forced to admit that a 780-meter protective wall built alongside the crippled power station (completed only last month and designed to prevent contaminated groundwater from seeping into the sea) is already "slightly leaning." While this sounds a lot like being half-pregnant, TEPCO remains 'optimistic' that the wall will hold. But you can't say the government is not trying - in an effort to 'calm' the public, scientists have developed a special scanner to accurately measure the amount of radioactive material inside the bodies of young children... which is odd given just how "contained" Abe said it was.