Posted 06 June 2011 - 06:45 PM
1. Storage. Where will you put vacuum cleaner, ironing board, lawnmower, clothes drier, washing basket, bicycles, tools, books, dvd's & cd's, etc? Is there an airing cupboard?
2. Access to shops and public transport?
3. External tap/power point?
4. Appropriate number of bathrooms for number of bedrooms? WC's against external walls with windows, or internal with fan?
6. Plus second votes for things previously mentioned, south or west facing garden, decent sized kitchen/diner, broadband access, privacy, check for local planning permissions for nightmare developments like half way houses or Wetherspoon pubs!
1. Nominal UK house prices -2% in London, +3% outside London.
2. Peak pessimism occurs in spring 2016, after that Oil, Commodities, and FTSE 100 stage small recovery ending year slightly higher than they began.
3. The US has a particularly bad tempered Hilary vs Donald election, Hilary wins (but failing health means she doesn't make a second term).
4. If there's no UK interest rate rise soon then it'll be too late to have one before the European vote in the second half of 2016. If we vote to leave then there won't be an interest rate rise at all in 2016. More likely we'll vote to stay in and there will be a single, quarter point increase in the autumn. The most obvious black swan that could overturn all this and see interest rates move up sharply is a balance of payments crisis, but on balance I don't think that will happen, at least not in 2016.
5. The tide really turns against small BTL landlords, and BTL moves towards being a big player enterprise with pension funds and big builders taking a stake.
6. China doesn't collapse, but makes progress on rebalancing and new, more modest growth rates appear secure. India becomes the new China. Russian-Western relationships slowly thaw. Brazil becomes a basket case and the IMF are forced to intervene.
7. A frontline country, maybe Mexico, maybe Columbia, throws in the towel on fighting the war against drugs for the benefit of the US and legalises all drugs.
8. UK RPI finishes 2016 at about 1%.