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Realistbear

Changing From Bull Or Bear

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Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more?? Edited by Realistbear

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291830681' post='2815266']


TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??
[/quote]


Made it years ago RB - I blame that scene in Spartacus where Laurence Olivier teaches Tony Curtis about some people enjoying oysters, some enjoying mussels and some enjoying both :blink:

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291830681' post='2815266']
Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??
[/quote]

Still a bear, how anyone can be bullish going forward just shows how much the modern economy is driven by propaganda and expectation management rather than fundamentals. The fundamentals will be overwhelming and will catch up.

I turn bullish the day wages start to rise rapidly in real terms, currently they are crashing in real terms! Edited by Confounded

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Not me. I've always maintained that the crash won't get going until the recovery gathers pace and interest rates rise. It has to happen. 2011 may be quiet but I see nothing to sustain prices at current level.

And of course I know we've all hung hopes on all sorts of triggers but the current European solvency crisis, which is being addressed by liquidity measures, can only end badly IMO.

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Not me a bear all the way.

I see 15% to 20% nominal falls over the next two years.
with an additional 10% to 15% as a result of inflation over the same time period.

Spiney.

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RB, you are becomming the Court Jester of HPC ;)

[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291830681' post='2815266']
Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??
[/quote]

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[quote name='spiney' timestamp='1291831205' post='2815279']
Not me a bear all the way.

I see 15% to 20% nominal falls over the next two years.
with an additional 10% to 15% as a result of inflation over the same time period.

Spiney.
[/quote]likewise, but falls a bit more delayed.

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291830681' post='2815266']
Anyone currently a bear thinking about going "Neither" or even Bull in the face of a recent barrage of HPI friendly fundamentals in the news?

I think it is a given houses are down from the peak--maybe by as much as 10-20% depending where you live. Equally, I think anyone could classify themselves as a Neither if they only saw another 10% off the top in the coming year or so.

A true bear would have to honestly see another 20% off the top at the very least. I see maybe 10% more down--but no more and then a slight uptick by the 3rd Q 2011 as bankster money starts spreading itself like slime in the SE.

TMT appears to have made the switch months ago and I did so a few days ago. Any more??
[/quote]


Land and property is still going down in real terms taking in consideration real inflation....net property yield is low and barely worthwhile in most areas.....less and less can find a foot on the first rung, many on the first rung are not going anywhere soon......wages are stagnant...debt is high...underemployment will not be buying and savings are low or non existent........so where are any rises coming from, all that is left for them is to fall. ;)

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[quote name='The Masked Tulip' timestamp='1291830939' post='2815272']
Made it years ago RB - I blame that scene in Spartacus where Laurence Olivier teaches Tony Curtis about some people enjoying oysters, some enjoying mussels and some enjoying both :blink:
[/quote]

Horses for courses. Crassus was apparently drawn to Grecian practices as was, so some say without any documented evidence, common among some of the Roman gentry of that period. As Del Boy would put it, a bit (nods head sideways), you know, a bit...... Rodders responds: Nooo, you don't mean (nods head sideways), do you?

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You know that quote about not wanting to be a member of any club that would let you join?

Well, now I find out that Realistbear has become a neither I don't want to be part of any club he is a member of, so I shall be moving on shortly.

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No converts so Far? :blink:

The definition of a bear must mean having an expectaion, from here, of at least another 20% down.

10-15% down makes you a Niether IMO. I am going for another 10%.

A bull would see 5% down to even up in the next year or so (there can't be any bulls around).

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[quote name='daiking' timestamp='1291831813' post='2815290']
You know that quote about not wanting to be a member of any club that would let you join?

Well, now I find out that Realistbear has become a neither I don't want to be part of any club he is a member of, so I shall be moving on shortly.
[/quote]


There are three choices and none of them is a club because membership is open to any or all!

Moving on the Bull or Bear and if Bear why so long as a Neither? Edited by Realistbear

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291831865' post='2815291']
No converts so Far? :blink:

The definition of a bear must mean having an expectaion, from here, of at least another 20% down.

10-15% down makes you a Niether IMO. I am going for another 10%.

A bull would see 5% down to even up in the next year or so (there can't be any bulls around).
[/quote]


Bull means up...bear means down....neither means you don't know if you are coming or going. ;)

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291832347' post='2815298']
Lets see how many are changing?
[/quote]
Staying neither.

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[quote name='winkie' timestamp='1291831984' post='2815293']
Bull means up...bear means down....neither means you don't know if you are coming or going. ;)
[/quote]

I think neither could also mean 'hedged quite nicely thank you very much'.

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[quote name='twatmangle' timestamp='1291832532' post='2815304']
I think neither could also mean 'hedged quite nicely thank you very much'.
[/quote]


I see so you are sitting on the [s]fence[/s] hedge...not a bad place to be. ;)

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House prices will decrease for years, slowly and surely.

Spoke to a developer today, who works with housing associations and finds himself in the hole for £36,000 on an overdraft - RBS has been frank with him that they won't be lending into the development industry until 2013/14. I conclude from that they don't expect to provide residential mortgages all that much either.

Of course that leaves very few new units to be built, but I don't expect that will help much because rents are so far below the level needed to sustain the rotten heap of existing mortgages.

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Staying Bear. Can't see the economy improving any time soon. The hardship hasn't even begun yet but it will.

EDIT You forgot the option of "Not Changing Status". Edited by Harry Monk

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Nope. There's more evidence now than ever before. Nearly was a neither and bought in early 2010 but certainly not now. House prices are falling for a start :)

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[quote name='Harry Monk' timestamp='1291832770' post='2815313']
Staying Bear. Can't see the economy improving any time soon. The hardship hasn't even begun yet but it will.
[/quote]

Thinking of moving to neither.

You know what they say Harry. A recession is when you know someone who lost their job, a depression is losing your own job. I'm on neither on that one too.

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[quote name='Johnny Storm' timestamp='1291832882' post='2815317']
Thinking of moving to neither.

You know what they say Harry. A recession is when you know someone who lost their job, a depression is losing your own job. I'm on neither on that one too.
[/quote]


Yes, but I have better things to do with my time than have a job :P

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[quote name='Durch' timestamp='1291833089' post='2815322']
Your poll has no options for 'unchanging'.

I'm a bear till it's all over.
[/quote]


Sorted!

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