Panda

Realistbear - Whats Happened - Bull

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Whats happened the sites uber bear, gone from bear to neither, currently ramping BTL.....................................Never thought i would see it?

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[quote name='Panda' timestamp='1291483009' post='2810845']
Whats happened the sites uber bear, gone from bear to neither, currently ramping BTL.....................................Never thought i would see it?
[/quote]


Apart from several months in a row of small declines in prices I canot see a significant drop in house prices in this country.

The government is using all of its powers to prevent a crash including holding IR below prudent levels given pending inflation, maintaining a free flow of immigrants from both inside and outside the EU, maintaining a hands off approach to the return of predatory lending and focusing on the City and select exporters to keep things going. The two tiered society, rich and poor, that was accelerated under Brown will be the norm going forward and it will not impact our economy if the vast majority are priced out of owning a home. As the Balls creature would sum it up: so what?

If there was going to be a crash it would have happened shortly after the rest of the world had theirs. The US went down 3 or 4 years ago and are still dropping. Ireland speaks for itself. Spain is sinking fast despite their denial and claims that the market is only down 20%. Portugal is similarly being rocked. But not here. We have, at best, returned to 2007-08 levels and that is where they will probably stay give or take 10% either way.

The return of BTL will slow down any falls as the banks are gaining confidence that the market is not going to fall by much. Hence the 95% LTVs emerging again.

Too many people with too much money chasing very few houses is not a good formula for a significant crash. Add a strong and resilent economy and it is not looking good. This country is going to be the most miserable place on earth for all but the BTL brigade and others ho have the cash and resources to be part of the new upper classes.

I am already looking at BTLs overseas to make sure I have a gaff of my own in a few years time. If I buy here I will be skint. Edited by Realistbear

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291483739' post='2810859']
Apart from several months in a row of small declines in prices I canot see a significant drop in house prices in this country.

The government is using all of its powers to prevent a crash including holding IR below prudent levels given pending inflation, maintaining a free flow of immigrants from both inside and outside the EU, maintaining a hands off approach to the return of predatory lending and focusing on the City and select exporters to keep things going. The two tiered society, rich and poor, that was accelerated under Brown will be the norm going forward and it will not impact our economy if the vast majority are priced out of owning a home. As the Balls creature would sum it up: so what?

If there was going to be a crash it would have happened shortly after the rest of the world had theirs. The US went down 3 or 4 years ago and are still dropping. Ireland speaks for itself. Spain is sinking fast despite their denial and claims that the market is only down 20%. Portugal is similarly being rocked. But not here. We have, at best, returned to 2007-08 levels and that is where they will probably stay give or taxke 10% either way.

The return of BTL will slow down any falls as the banks are gaining confidence that the market is not going to fall by much. Hence the 95% LTVs emerging again.

Too many people with too much money chasing very few houses is not a good formula for a significant crash. Add a strong and resilent economy and it is not looking good. This country is going to be the most miserable place on earth for all but the BTL brigade and others ho have the cash and resources to be part of the new upper classes.

I am already looking at BTLs overseas to make sure I have a gaff of my own in a few years time. If I buy here I will be skint.
[/quote]
So Sibley was right all along .... the government will not let house prices fall.

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That rather seems to conflict with the predictions made in part 1 of your signature?

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[quote name='satch' timestamp='1291483918' post='2810862']
So Sibley was right all along .... the government will not let house prices fall.
[/quote]


I think so. They cannot afford to let house prices fall. They have the ability to pull it off by sacrificing the majority fofr the benefit of the few who are not priced out.

I am planning to emigrate in about 5 or 6 years as I cannot see much future in this country.

Brown pulled it off. He gave us a boom and there is no bust in sight. When I say "bust" I mean a collapse in property prices of at least 30%. We may get, at best, 20% down from peak but how does that help the majority who are priced out?

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[quote name='Redhat Sly' timestamp='1291484028' post='2810865']
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cNR5FwwVOkjklILg54xkbh35L4J0N0YDj1y3krKaYmSMuGTJn3yo7oi05yXezSsu5pO5xv0wF1S0rj4st9irtNIsb9lLik075xnYnr810iDO+HeuM4XYKeRrwxsbnuOwa05z8kpEkTF7vGXl55hzOZ6/wDP7L6lmD2eHJcDk4JOep2/Vcfs6rlfpZTvxp1asEADHmcBR3NmYTHMyRwHh08s+Siviol1xENa7LnbjBOPr5qXRueGh4BdqAIOnO+PL5rYvDPZNLVd1LxBWxQQBuRTU0gdKc9HO5D2GVsAdnfCgc0x2qNuloae7le0Px/MAdz6q6tSXTSlBDLPLHDFC6aR/hjiDTlx6YC3R2e8MvsVFLPXRNbXVBwRkHSwchkeZ3+SzdrsFptDy+22+Gne4aS+NniI8sndZQEBSY6LlsHJcoDnki2yIiIB5LX/AGk9of8AhZzbfb6cTXKRgkzK093E0k7nG5JwdlsArQHbj/61YM//AAYv9z0GFunHt8uxP7QmbI08mMc5jR7AKvy19VM8vfIx2dvFuSPVRyV8pqU2mMrJ2jAYzHkHYC7YrlPG4OEDS4cjnB/JY/K42TjF5VNdUE5IpiCeod1XWJnYJdG8/VRgVzqI6lOMOVSG1A+9C7Psvr4pjmlrw8D+kqLrPmhcTzcfmnGHKpLZYt3aiP6unzUinEBkY6SoY1md9L2grG5Oc5OfdcEu/mKnE5LHLUWOJjnNke93TXITnpsAfVYKqrqc1OYc6Q4Abcx1XR4uR3HqAucAgamMOP8ASkx0cttlQzscMtOc7jGylxTy4wx8g9nFaybXSs+y+Qezz/dSI7xVs+zUVAH/AHMrTOmzmVdY3GmpmH/6EYXZQcS3WK4xGmrJXsa4BzZHFzHAnG4JWto+IawbPqJns6tONx8leLMWONPoyZJnMw3rv0QbvgkEjMgLsUO3fwyVMUUREQFXuI+DrJxDMKm50LZqhrAxsnevYQAScbEDqVYUQa6m7KOG3jDaOdh82VTv1yoEvY7ZDnRPcGD0laf/ABW1MIg09N2NUZz3F1rGf1xsd/ZQpuxqQfwbyfTvKb+zlu7C4wg0JL2QXVpPd3Oid/VE8H6ZUKbsp4iZ9iS3ye07m/m1ehy0dQuDGw9EHm2Xsz4pjG1FDJ/26ph/MhRJeAuKY85stSf6Sx35FemzCw/dyvk0sJ+4EHlmbhbiCD+LZLg32gcfyCiSWu4w/wAa31bP6oHj9F6w+Ej6ZC+TRtP3nfNB5IdFIz7cb2+7CP0Xxqb/ADD8Thet3W+Nw3APuFGlsdHKP3lNTv8A64mn9FdjykMHk4H8QuS045fRen5eELNNnvLTQH3pmf2UKbs84blPjstHnzbGW/kQmx5s0n1W7+z60F8cdymb4tAZTjHpgu/QfisxL2YcNPB/6Uxv9Esg/wDJWq3W5tIyONjGsjiaGsaByAGFBLpYu6jwu9EQEREBERAREQEREBERAREQEREBERAREQEREBERAREQf//Z[/img]


They have broken him.
[/quote]
The VIs; 'How many fingers do you see RB?'

RB; 'Five, Five, I can see five fingers ...'

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[quote name='Harry Monk' timestamp='1291484003' post='2810864']
That rather seems to conflict with the predictions made in part 1 of your signature?
[/quote]


Crimbo 2010 prediction will probably include a forecast for a 10% YoY drop in house prices, Sterling maintaining $1.60/65 and Euro with a very uncertain future. Gold will probably hover between $1300 and $1500 but not really go anywhere as there will be bigger returns in BTL.

The banks are too big to fail and they will be the guarantee that property prices will not fall. The government have seen what happened in the US where property was allowed to drop and they will not go there.

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291484117' post='2810866']
I think so. They cannot afford to let house prices fall. They have the ability to pull it off by sacrificing the majority fofr the benefit of the few who are not priced out.

I am planning to emigrate in about 5 or 6 years as I cannot see much future in this country.

Brown pulled it off. He gave us a boom and there is no bust in sight. When I say "bust" I mean a collapse in property prices of at least 30%. We may get, at best, 20% down from peak but how does that help the majority who are priced out?
[/quote]

Where are you going?

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RB I asked you this on another thread but didn't get a reply so will ask again:
What have this g'ment actually DONE to encourage hpi?
What COULD they do?
If the answers to both questions is the same then yes they are determined to prop up prices.
IMO they are not.

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291483739' post='2810859']
Apart from several months in a row of small declines in prices I canot see a significant drop in house prices in this country.
[/quote]
I'm beginning to think you're right. It's a damn shame for so many people in this country.

I too intend to leave the UK, perhaps late next year. I just can't see a decent future here :ph34r:

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291484314' post='2810870']
Crimbo 2010 prediction will probably include a forecast for a 10% YoY drop in house prices, Sterling maintaining $1.60/65 and Euro with a very uncertain future. Gold will probably hover between $1300 and $1500 but not really go anywhere as there will be bigger returns in BTL.

[/quote]

I don't understand. I buy a BTL for £90,000 and let it out for £550 pcm. In 2011 it grosses £6,600 in rental yield but falls by 10%, or £9,000, in value.

I make that a loss, not a return.

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[quote name='Redhat Sly' timestamp='1291484360' post='2810871']
Where are you going?
[/quote]


Looking at condos in San Diego, California. A typical condo in my old stomping grounds in Carlsbad goes for around $250k these days, down from around $400k at the top. You can rent these out reasonably easily for around $1200 pm. Property taxes are not too bad at 1.25% of the purchase price locked in for life (Prop 13 in CA prevents hikes in property taxes above 2% p.a.).

The weather in SoCal if perfect, much like Spain but most people still speak English. Looked at Spain but found most Brits down there were a bit depressed and spent their time looking forward to cocktail hour. I wouldn't qualify for Oz or NZ and I have friends and relativs Stateside which makes immigration easy.

I am a bit sad about it as I genuinely wanted to make a long term go of it back here. But I can see living a substandard existence with everything gone on a house. I find the UK extremely corrupt compared with the US--at least at a local level where things impact the way you live.

This country is severly degraded IMO. Brown did a number on it for 10 years and there is no sign of any reversal coming from DC. When DC mentioned how the world cup would go well here as visitors would feel at home in multi-cultural Britain I saw that as a highly symbolic admission as to the end of the country I once knew. The US, especially West Coast, still has some optimism going and they will recover and turn East for trade. CA is still number 8 in the world GDP-wise so its doing okay. Their housing bust is very healthy and I plan to take full advanatge of the low prices before they start to turn around.

6 more years to do here so I will have to help out some BTLer for awhile longer.

For the rest of the bears on here I think I would seriously consider bailing. Edited by Realistbear

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I see your point, but don't think you have accounted for future employment levels which, in my opinion, is/will be the main factor for HPC. Interest rates, demand, increased LTV, doesn't mean a thing if there's no wage to pay. Current employment levels are misleading and can only get worse.

There is a massive drop in building, public spending (will be), consumer spending, it all points to one thing - fewer jobs.

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[quote name='NEO72' timestamp='1291484555' post='2810876']
RB I asked you this on another thread but didn't get a reply so will ask again:
What have this g'ment actually DONE to encourage hpi?
What COULD they do?
If the answers to both questions is the same then yes they are determined to prop up prices.
IMO they are not.
[/quote]


The government recognise the importance of HPI to prop up the service sector. They keep IR artficially low, refrain from regulating bad lending practices and avoid penalsing multipel hlomeowners and BTL by keeping CGT below top rate of tax (28% kicks in next year--if at all). Immigration, of the unrestrainit therefof, helps fuel the level of demand. Russian Mafia types are enouraged to keep country hizes and the West End market going by allowing them non-dom status. I am sure there are a few more ways the government encourage our number one industry......

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A major factor why prices fell and continue falling in the U.S is foreclosure. The U.K government have put in place various measures to prevent this over here. I'm still not convinced that the U.K won't undergo a similar period as the U.S where there are large numbers of repossesions, especially when interest rates start rising. Thus far the governent have simply kicked the can down the road, it was only ever about saving the banking system.

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yeah, that deficit is going up, costs of government are going up, wages are going...nowhere, and unemployment is...rising.

bankers are under the cosh for liquidity, their impaired assets are buying 10-20% of the face value for loans from the central banks...

money is tight and getting tighter....

the asset price argument is mute as they lie about the value anyway.

The sales I see around here are all builders doing them up, as they appear FOR SALE again weeks after the white vans appear. These guys need to sell.

Pretty soon, entitlements are going to go...SMI is an obvious target for the cosh.

Im pretty sure, things are going to get worse after the holidays.

And more bleating from the VIs show they are hurting too.

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If you don't own property leave the uk if you can

I'm not sure exactly what shape this is going to take, but i don't think it's going to be that far removed from oliver twist (the version with no dancing or music)

The only hope is the uk population ends up revolting, but my evaluation is that as long nearly most of them feel there is [i]some[/i] hope they will be ok, jack', imo most wont move a muscle in real defiance.

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[quote name='Wantbell' timestamp='1291485007' post='2810888']
I see your point, but don't think you have accounted for future employment levels which, in my opinion, is/will be the main factor for HPC. Interest rates, demand, increased LTV, doesn't mean a thing if there's no wage to pay. Current employment levels are misleading and can only get worse.

There is a massive drop in building, public spending (will be), consumer spending, it all points to one thing - fewer jobs.
[/quote]


I think we are moving toward a prol state. Jobs don't matter if you can keep the masses in line with subsistence living and lower expectations. And lower expectations are the new norm. The US is recovering without adding jobs but it is leading into a similar sort of 2 tiered society.

If we were going to lose jobs it would have happened already. The temporary collapse in the banking system has, if anything, saved jobs as it has consolidated the banksters rule. So long as they make money everything is fine and they can leech off the growth in Asia to keep themselves going while the rest simply lapse deeper into poverty. Listen to the goverment and whait is saying: we are all in it together. Austerity is good for you. All very Churchillian if not Dickensian but it only affects the have nots.

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291485656' post='2810899']
I think we are moving toward a prol state. Jobs don't matter if you can keep the masses in line with subsistence living and lower expectations. And lower expectations are the new norm. The US is recovering without adding jobs but it is leading into a similar sort of 2 tiered society.

If we were going to lose jobs it would have happened already. The temporary collapse in the banking system has, if anything, saved jobs as it has consolidated the banksters rule. So long as they make money everything is fine and they can leech off the growth in Asia to keep themselves going while the rest simply lapse deeper into poverty. Listen to the goverment and whait is saying: we are all in it together. Austerity is good for you. All very Churchillian if not Dickensian but it only affects the have nots.
[/quote]
just wondering how the US is recovering with Unemployment up to 9.8% official and November foodstamps issueance the highest ever.

their deficit is increasing, just about cancelling out the falling real wealth production.

Methinks you been watching too much Doomberg and CNBC

[attachment=19718:akcs-www.jpg] Edited by Bloo Loo

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[quote name='doccyboy' timestamp='1291485688' post='2810900']
You've made me very happy Realistbear. I was waiting for you to turn and then I would know that I can hope for a house . :)

I'll start looking in the spring if prices keep going down every month as they are at present.
[/quote]


:lol: yes of course, the contrarian indicator

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291484117' post='2810866']
I am planning to emigrate in about 5 or 6 years as I cannot see much future in this country.
[/quote]

So you are emigrating to the US, not easy getting a green card, i have relatives who are citizens, i could get one if i tried, but i would rather suffer here, the UK is bad, but the US is in a depression and getting worse, healthcare is terrible. For me, i would choose Australia, the houses are way too expensive but rents are not too bad relative to a local wage due to negative gearing, i would not buy you see.


[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291483739' post='2810859']
I am already looking at BTLs overseas to make sure I have a gaff of my own in a few years time. If I buy here I will be skint.
[/quote]

Skint, you must have a STR fund of at least £250k maybe even £350k, you could easily buy a nice pad in Stratford Upon Avon for that? How old are you 57 or 58?

I have to admit i am surprised by your impatience, house will fall, but it will take 6 or so years to the bottom, for a man your age too long i guess, time waits for no man. I guess if you intend to buy then it is a long wait. I do not intend to ever buy house, well i say never, only if they ever fall to 3 times my income ever again. If they do not i will rent for ever.

I always enjoyed your posts, its a shame you have bailed, i think you are wrong, they will bottom but not till the banks are solvent enough to withstand the drops, a long time i guess, maybe 2020.....................

P

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[quote name='doccyboy' timestamp='1291485688' post='2810900']
You've made me very happy Realistbear. I was waiting for you to turn and then I would know that I can hope for a house . :)

I'll start looking in the spring if prices keep going down every month as they are at present.
[/quote]


Sure they will go down. Maybe as much as another 10%. But who can afford them, even with a 20% drop from the top?

I am still extremely Bearish for the UK overall as HPI will (has alfready) destroy our way of life but it is happening. If prices fall it will because wages, in real terms, are falling. No one gets ahead. We will have a 2 class nation once again and the brief fling the masses had with prosperity from the 1960's to 1990's will be over. Reversion to norm coming soon.

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291483739' post='2810859']
...I am already looking at BTLs overseas to make sure I have a gaff of my own in a few years time. If I buy here I will be skint.
[/quote]

but aren't your pro-pwoperdee 'arguments' nearly all UK specific? if so why rush to buy overseas? do you just mean you want to emigrate soonish? Edited by the flying pig

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[quote name='Realistbear' timestamp='1291486203' post='2810908']
Sure they will go down. Maybe as much as another 10%. But who can afford them, even with a 20% drop from the top?

I am still extremely Bearish for the UK overall as HPI will (has alfready) destroy our way of life but it is happening. If prices fall it will because wages, in real terms, are falling. No one gets ahead. We will have a 2 class nation once again and the brief fling the masses had with prosperity from the 1960's to 1990's will be over. Reversion to norm coming soon.
[/quote]

thats a good point..clearly, BTL CAN afford them...no deposit, IO, its all in their favour...and growth...its all ours for the taking...I dont know why I didnt see it before.

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