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bearORbullENIGMA

"there Isn't Going To Be A Market Crash!"

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[quote name='bearORbullENIGMA' date='04 March 2010 - 01:37 PM' timestamp='1267709842' post='2413142']
Who wrote Kirsty Allsop's Anti-HPC rant?

[url="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtTpLvUOunM"]Link[/url]
[/quote]

"Just for the schadenfreude" - Love it!

Is B**** still a member of this venerable forum?

Note: edited as requested! Edited by urban commando

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[quote name='urban commando' date='04 March 2010 - 01:40 PM' timestamp='1267710059' post='2413151']
"Just for the schadenfreude" - Love it!

Is Bruno still a member of this venerable forum?
[/quote]

Please edit the B word out of your post or this thread will be sent straight to the troll forum. Edited by bearORbullENIGMA

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[quote name='bearORbullENIGMA' date='04 March 2010 - 05:07 PM' timestamp='1267709842' post='2413142']
Who wrote Kirsty Allsop's Anti-HPC rant?

[url="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtTpLvUOunM"]Link[/url]
[/quote]

For those people who describe a crash as an 80's style event... eg rapid reduction in prices leading to an overcorrection against trend.... Kirsty of course remains MORE RIGHT than those who have consistently been predicting a crash since 2003......... of course a further price correction will occur, but I am very doubtful that it will occur in a form that would allow for the use of the word crash. Like it or not Kirsty has a point... so far.

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That's a great video, nicely surmises the insanity in the thinking of people like Allsop

Despite her idiotic claims there, if more people had listened to the fantastic analysis here down the years we wouldn't have ended up in the appalling place we are now

I can't think of anywhere else that spotted the bubble sooner and called it right all along

Even some predicting the insane bailout that has occurred

But it's easy to just throw dung and say everyone here is spreading rumours about the housing market crashing because we want hard-working families and puppy dogs kicked to death

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[quote name='abharrisson' date='04 March 2010 - 01:43 PM' timestamp='1267710188' post='2413162']
Kirsty of course remains MORE RIGHT than those who have consistently been predicting a crash since 2003
[/quote]

:lol: :lol: :lol:
oh man, that's a classic

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[quote name='bearORbullENIGMA' date='04 March 2010 - 01:42 PM' timestamp='1267710169' post='2413161']
Please edit the B word out of your post or this thread will be sent straight to the troll forum.
[/quote]

Oops sorry! :o Done as requested.

What's the story behind the "B Word"? Edited by urban commando

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[quote name='abharrisson' date='04 March 2010 - 01:43 PM' timestamp='1267710188' post='2413162']
For those people who describe a crash as an 80's style event... eg rapid reduction in prices leading to an overcorrection against trend.... Kirsty of course remains MORE RIGHT than those who have consistently been predicting a crash since 2003......... [b]of course a further price correction will occur, but I am very doubtful that it will occur in a form that would allow for the use of the word crash. [/b]Like it or not Kirsty has a point... so far.
[/quote]

You mean a fall in real, not nominal terms?

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[quote name='pete.hpc' date='04 March 2010 - 05:14 PM' timestamp='1267710283' post='2413168']
:lol: :lol: :lol:
oh man, that's a classic
[/quote]

Its a classic fact at the moment... you might find it unpaletable but it is true. ...... personally I don't think prices will rise, I do think they'll fall but I am honest enough with myself to recognise where we are now.... which is that a crash has not happened yet and so Kirsty to all intents currently remains correct.... like it or not my little muppet.

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[quote name='urban commando' date='04 March 2010 - 01:45 PM' timestamp='1267710333' post='2413171']
Oops sorry! :o Done as requested.

What's the story behind the "B Word"?
[/quote]

Oh where do we start

[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4o3_lwp60T4[/media]

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[quote name='abharrisson' date='04 March 2010 - 01:52 PM' timestamp='1267710768' post='2413193']
Its a classic fact at the moment... you might find it unpaletable but it is true. ...... personally I don't think prices will rise, I do think they'll fall but I am honest enough with myself to recognise where we are now.... which is that a crash has not happened yet and so Kirsty to all intents currently remains correct.... like it or not my little muppet.
[/quote]

utter crap, did you miss the massive house price crash in 2008?

to suggest Allsop is more right than this website is almost beyond comprehension, but let's pretend it was delivered seriously

Allsop has used absolutely no intellect and instead blind, idiotic faith to parrot forever that the market could not crash. this was based on nothing but her lack of exposure to a housing crash, her lack of understanding of basic economics and instead she was led by her exposure to people talking the market up via unsubstantiated bullsh[i][/i]it

In contrast, this place has called it right from the start. It has highlighted why house prices are overpriced and why they will crash. in 2005 the BofE made an unprecedented decision to ignore the signs and attempt to prolong the boom in the face of government interference. This place again correctly said this was postponing the problem and making it worse, which it did, you might have noticed the banking system collapsed and house prices fell 20% in one year. the government have still not learnt their lesson and have tried postponing the problem AGAIN, this time making it an issue that could have truly devestating effects, and yet because this has all been done to chase votes and pander to tw[i][/i]ats like Krusty, it's possible to claim she is "more right"

Truly laughable. What's your favourite saying? "save me from these idiots" :lol:

Hey look everyone, there is absolutely no housing crash in this graph

[img]http://www.gscape.com/images/econ/charts/HPC0110.gif[/img] Edited by pete.hpc

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[quote name='buytoilet' date='04 March 2010 - 01:53 PM' timestamp='1267710818' post='2413197']
Oh where do we start

[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4o3_lwp60T4[/media]
[/quote]

Ah yes, I see.

Doesn't have quite the same ring to it as that classic by The Special AKA: "Free Nelson Mandela!"

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[quote name='abharrisson' date='04 March 2010 - 01:52 PM' timestamp='1267710768' post='2413193']
Its a classic fact at the moment... you might find it unpaletable but it is true. ...... personally I don't think prices will rise, I do think they'll fall but I am honest enough with myself to recognise where we are now.... which is that a crash has not happened yet and so Kirsty to all intents currently remains correct.... like it or not my little muppet.
[/quote]

unfortunately i have to agree with you. we have had only about a 10% nominal fall so far, and this is now 2 years since the peak. what happens going forward i do not know, but so far, house price crash (circa 2004) has been DEAD wrong.

the rampant money printing that was forewarned did come to pass. the ridiculous interest rates also. a whole year now at 0.5%. this is not the kind of environment where crash predictions are all that wise.

but there is time yet. always more time.

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here is the sign of the times.

[i]"No fresh aid for economy from rate-setters"[/i] - so 0.5% IRs for a whole year is apparently considered a neutral stance!

[i]Meanwhile house prices also registered their first fall in nearly a year during February, according to house price surveys from Halifax and Nationwide.

Members of the MPC have also dropped hints that more QE could be in the offing if the recovery fails to gain traction and the threat of a dreaded "double-dip" recession looms. [/i]

it is not like they pull any surprises. they have said all along what they would do, and they have done so. what surprises me is that people (all over the world, apparently) seem not to believe it and continue to accumulate bonds and checking deposits bearing these ridiculous massively negative real interest rates!

well, people hoarding government paper do not deserve to command any wealth, frankly.

madness!

link: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/no-fresh-aid-for-economy-from-ratesetters-1916094.html Edited by Where is my pen?

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[quote name='Where is my pen?' date='04 March 2010 - 02:15 PM' timestamp='1267712158' post='2413238']
unfortunately i have to agree with you. we have had only about a 10% nominal fall so far, and this is now 2 years since the peak. what happens going forward i do not know, but so far, house price crash (circa 2004) has been DEAD wrong.
[/quote]
Well, let's be fair. This government has essentially spent on our behalf, run up massive deficits and ultimately made the problem [b]a lot [/b] worse. In the two previous crashes we've had Tory governments who seem to of been more fiscally prudent* and this fact alone allowed the market to correct.

* Yes, I know what they tried [b]but[/b] they didn't put the the country at risk by doing so!

[quote name='Where is my pen?' date='04 March 2010 - 02:15 PM' timestamp='1267712158' post='2413238']
the rampant money printing that was forewarned did come to pass. the ridiculous interest rates also. a whole year now at 0.5%. this is not the kind of environment where crash predictions are all that wise.
[/quote]
Agreed but what happens next? QE, 0.5% IR's and massive government spending cannot go on forever. And even with all of them they've only managed modest rises in HP's, with many still not able to sell.

[quote name='Where is my pen?' date='04 March 2010 - 02:15 PM' timestamp='1267712158' post='2413238']
but there is time yet. always more time.
[/quote]
And and election looms. We shall see.

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[quote name='Where is my pen?' date='04 March 2010 - 02:21 PM' timestamp='1267712506' post='2413252']
here is the sign of the times.

[i]"No fresh aid for economy from rate-setters"[/i] - so 0.5% IRs for a whole year is apparently considered a neutral stance!
[/quote]
Mortgage rates have disconnected from the base rate, so this means little or nothing (IMO).

[quote name='Where is my pen?' date='04 March 2010 - 02:21 PM' timestamp='1267712506' post='2413252']
[i]Meanwhile house prices also registered their first fall in nearly a year during February, according to house price surveys from Halifax and Nationwide.
[/quote]
This is only one month's falls and from one source. I personally wouldn't read into it too much.

[quote name='Where is my pen?' date='04 March 2010 - 02:21 PM' timestamp='1267712506' post='2413252']
Members of the MPC have also dropped hints that more QE could be in the offing if the recovery fails to gain traction and the threat of a dreaded "double-dip" recession looms. [/i]
[/quote]
Translation: **** sterling, we are going to print more. We just need an excuse.

[quote name='Where is my pen?' date='04 March 2010 - 02:21 PM' timestamp='1267712506' post='2413252']
it is not like they pull any surprises. they have said all along what they would do, and they have done so. what surprises me is that people (all over the world, apparently) seem not to believe it and continue to accumulate bonds and checking deposits bearing these ridiculous massively negative real interest rates!
[/quote]
Pension funds are required (by law) to buy British government gilts so that's one major buyer ID'ed already. As for the others, I suspect that central bank exchanges are happening. After all, the main reason for buying government gilts is the security. But what security do UK gilts offer? A guaranteed loss? :huh:

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